Canadian Election 2019

[toaster]

I also live in a close Lib/Con riding (one of the Etobicoke ridings), but don't think I'll be voting for the backbencher we currently have in government who doesn't do much for the riding.  Might vote Green for the first time.

[DabbingSanta]

No prediction thread yet?

Popular vote:
Conservative 34%
Liberal 33%
NDP 14%
Green 9%
Bloc 7%
PPC 3%

Seats:
Liberal 144   (-33)
Conservative 142   (+47)
Bloc 28   (+18)
NDP 18   (-21)
Green 5   (+3)
PPC 1   (---)

Prediction for my riding... London North Centre

Liberal 39%
Conservative 32%
NDP 15%
Green 11%
PPC 3%

[T'Chenka]

Singh looks great. Such a shame that the NDP never polls well enough pre-election for NDP supporters to feel like actually voting NDP at the ballot box isn't a waste of a vote in many of the ridings.

Yeah tactical voting looks like it'll squeeze the NDP again. It's tragic how they lost in 2015, I wish Mulcair had won that election and the NDP was the major party of the left.

My riding is strictly red or blue most of the time, but in that 2015 election it was really looking like the NDP had a shot. I will sadly be tactical voting myself this time, against Scheer's Conservatives. In my riding the best way to.do so is to vote Liberal. The stakes are too high with the climate crisis for me to spend my vote virtue signalling that I support the NDP in a riding where they will not win (this time).

If the polls start massively shifting away from Trudeau and towards Singh, I will vote NDP. It looks like that won't be happening though.

You do realize, your vote isn't going to be the deciding vote in this election, right?

Tactical voting on the level of the individual makes no logical sense.

(1) You have no idea which riding I am in or just how close the polls or results will be between Scheer and Trudeau in my riding. You DON'T KNOW one vote won't count. Ignorant post.

(2) If you haven't figured out, there are likely hundreds or maybe even a thousand plus people in my riding with politics like mine making these same calculations. If we all vote strategically or if none of us vote strategically, it can have a big impact in my riding. Your "one vote doesn't count" argument is a flawed way of thinking. If all of us took your advice and just voted for our preferred party regardless of the situation, we alone as a group could cause a Conservative MP for this riding. Which could be the one MP needed to put Scheer over 50%, or the one MP the Liberal-NDP coalition needed to exceed 50% but now they need to negotiate with the Greens as well to form a government.

(1) Doesn't matter what riding you live in. The chance that your vote will be the deciding vote is negligible. You'd have a better chance getting in a car accident on you way to vote. I've studied elections for a long time. I can count on one hand how many elections have been decided by one vote at all levels of government.

(2) An individual vote is an individual vote. A group of people does not equal a monolithic vote group.

If people like you did vote for who they really wanted instead of stopping who they didn't want, the Liberals would tack left to try and get your votes. If you just vote for them anyway, they don't have to make that shift electorally. If no one votes NDP or Green, then there's no incentive for the Liberals to tack left at all.

And I get it, if everyone like you voted their conscience, maybe the Tories would win. Perhaps that would make for a good punishment for Trudeau for abandoning his electoral reform promise. If he went ahead with his promise, we wouldn't be having this argument.

If you can feel comfortable voting for the Liberals, then that's your prerogative. But do not delude yourself in believing you will have the deciding vote. I can guarantee that will not be the case.

The relationship many progressives have with the Liberals borders on a protection racket. They have single handedly eliminated the one policy that would allow for a progressive alternative to the Liberals and Tories, and then have the chutzpah to play up fear of a Tory government if progressives don't forgive their myriad of sins against progressive politics.

Thus, we see progressives voting for Justin the Blackface Pipeline Mogul to defend against Tory racism or climate inaction or something. It's surreal. I genuinely pity the NDP/Greens and their supporters for having to put up with this nonsense.

I tend to agree with a lot of your points here. The problem is that I see this as a high-stakes election where a Scheer government outcome is unacceptable. At this particular point in time, I feel preventing the worst-case scenario is more important than advocating for my beliefs. Normally in most elections, I would (and do) vote NDP.

If I was an American, I would be voting for Biden over Trump if it came down to it, even if Bernie was hypoethetically  running third party but also in this scenario had no path to actually winning the presidency. Sometimes the stakes are just too high to not be tactical and practical IMO.

[136or142]

Singh looks great. Such a shame that the NDP never polls well enough pre-election for NDP supporters to feel like actually voting NDP at the ballot box isn't a waste of a vote in many of the ridings.

Yeah tactical voting looks like it'll squeeze the NDP again. It's tragic how they lost in 2015, I wish Mulcair had won that election and the NDP was the major party of the left.

My riding is strictly red or blue most of the time, but in that 2015 election it was really looking like the NDP had a shot. I will sadly be tactical voting myself this time, against Scheer's Conservatives. In my riding the best way to.do so is to vote Liberal. The stakes are too high with the climate crisis for me to spend my vote virtue signalling that I support the NDP in a riding where they will not win (this time).

If the polls start massively shifting away from Trudeau and towards Singh, I will vote NDP. It looks like that won't be happening though.

You do realize, your vote isn't going to be the deciding vote in this election, right?

Tactical voting on the level of the individual makes no logical sense.

(1) You have no idea which riding I am in or just how close the polls or results will be between Scheer and Trudeau in my riding. You DON'T KNOW one vote won't count. Ignorant post.

(2) If you haven't figured out, there are likely hundreds or maybe even a thousand plus people in my riding with politics like mine making these same calculations. If we all vote strategically or if none of us vote strategically, it can have a big impact in my riding. Your "one vote doesn't count" argument is a flawed way of thinking. If all of us took your advice and just voted for our preferred party regardless of the situation, we alone as a group could cause a Conservative MP for this riding. Which could be the one MP needed to put Scheer over 50%, or the one MP the Liberal-NDP coalition needed to exceed 50% but now they need to negotiate with the Greens as well to form a government.

(1) Doesn't matter what riding you live in. The chance that your vote will be the deciding vote is negligible. You'd have a better chance getting in a car accident on you way to vote. I've studied elections for a long time. I can count on one hand how many elections have been decided by one vote at all levels of government.

(2) An individual vote is an individual vote. A group of people does not equal a monolithic vote group.

If people like you did vote for who they really wanted instead of stopping who they didn't want, the Liberals would tack left to try and get your votes. If you just vote for them anyway, they don't have to make that shift electorally. If no one votes NDP or Green, then there's no incentive for the Liberals to tack left at all.

And I get it, if everyone like you voted their conscience, maybe the Tories would win. Perhaps that would make for a good punishment for Trudeau for abandoning his electoral reform promise. If he went ahead with his promise, we wouldn't be having this argument.

If you can feel comfortable voting for the Liberals, then that's your prerogative. But do not delude yourself in believing you will have the deciding vote. I can guarantee that will not be the case.

The relationship many progressives have with the Liberals borders on a protection racket. They have single handedly eliminated the one policy that would allow for a progressive alternative to the Liberals and Tories, and then have the chutzpah to play up fear of a Tory government if progressives don't forgive their myriad of sins against progressive politics.

Thus, we see progressives voting for Justin the Blackface Pipeline Mogul to defend against Tory racism or climate inaction or something. It's surreal. I genuinely pity the NDP/Greens and their supporters for having to put up with this nonsense.

To misquote Andrew Scheer, I don't think a progressive has any lessons to learn from a person who votes for the Conservative Party.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Come on Scheer take down the worst  CDN PM in the post War Era and hopefully finish the work Harper started(The best pm since WW2).

[adma]

If I was an American, I would be voting for Biden over Trump if it came down to it, even if Bernie was hypoethetically  running third party but also in this scenario had no path to actually winning the presidency. Sometimes the stakes are just too high to not be tactical and practical IMO.

Though there, we're talking about a winner-take-all situation rather than Canada's parliamentary-constituency circumstance.  Thus, a lot of these Davenport-type races are more akin to AOC vs Joe Crowley than Biden vs Trump.

[lilTommy]

POLLING!

Leader Approvals/Disapprovals:

Singh: 49% (+16) / 22% (-7) - net approval +27
May: 42% (+3) / 24% (-1) - net approval +18
Trudeau: 31% (-) / 54% (-) - net approval -23
Scheer: 27% (-2) / 53% (+6) - net approval - 26

Campaign Research / Oct 9, 2019 / n=3147 / MOE 1.8% / Online

(% chg w Oct 2)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

CPC: 34% (-3)
LPC: 29% (-1)
NDP: 17% (+3)
GPC: 9% (+1)
BQ: 7% (-)
PPC: 3% (-)

Angus Reid / October 10, 2019 / n=2926 / Online

(% chg w Oct 1)

Leader Favourability:

Jagmeet Singh: 59% (+13)
Yves-Francois Blanchet: 52% (-)
Elizabeth May: 44% (+3)
Andrew Scheer: 38% (-3)
Justin Trudeau: 35% (-)
Maxime Bernier: 15% (-3)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


LPC: 35% (-)
CPC: 31% (-2)
NDP: 15% (+2)
GPC: 10% (-)
BQ: 6% (+1)
PPC: 3% (-1)

Innovative Research / October 10, 2019 / n=1939 / Online

(% chg w Oct 7)

[Krago]

Singh looks great. Such a shame that the NDP never polls well enough pre-election for NDP supporters to feel like actually voting NDP at the ballot box isn't a waste of a vote in many of the ridings.

Yeah tactical voting looks like it'll squeeze the NDP again. It's tragic how they lost in 2015, I wish Mulcair had won that election and the NDP was the major party of the left.

My riding is strictly red or blue most of the time, but in that 2015 election it was really looking like the NDP had a shot. I will sadly be tactical voting myself this time, against Scheer's Conservatives. In my riding the best way to.do so is to vote Liberal. The stakes are too high with the climate crisis for me to spend my vote virtue signalling that I support the NDP in a riding where they will not win (this time).

If the polls start massively shifting away from Trudeau and towards Singh, I will vote NDP. It looks like that won't be happening though.

You do realize, your vote isn't going to be the deciding vote in this election, right?

Tactical voting on the level of the individual makes no logical sense.

(1) You have no idea which riding I am in or just how close the polls or results will be between Scheer and Trudeau in my riding. You DON'T KNOW one vote won't count. Ignorant post.

(2) If you haven't figured out, there are likely hundreds or maybe even a thousand plus people in my riding with politics like mine making these same calculations. If we all vote strategically or if none of us vote strategically, it can have a big impact in my riding. Your "one vote doesn't count" argument is a flawed way of thinking. If all of us took your advice and just voted for our preferred party regardless of the situation, we alone as a group could cause a Conservative MP for this riding. Which could be the one MP needed to put Scheer over 50%, or the one MP the Liberal-NDP coalition needed to exceed 50% but now they need to negotiate with the Greens as well to form a government.

(1) Doesn't matter what riding you live in. The chance that your vote will be the deciding vote is negligible. You'd have a better chance getting in a car accident on you way to vote. I've studied elections for a long time. I can count on one hand how many elections have been decided by one vote at all levels of government.

(2) An individual vote is an individual vote. A group of people does not equal a monolithic vote group.

If people like you did vote for who they really wanted instead of stopping who they didn't want, the Liberals would tack left to try and get your votes. If you just vote for them anyway, they don't have to make that shift electorally. If no one votes NDP or Green, then there's no incentive for the Liberals to tack left at all.

And I get it, if everyone like you voted their conscience, maybe the Tories would win. Perhaps that would make for a good punishment for Trudeau for abandoning his electoral reform promise. If he went ahead with his promise, we wouldn't be having this argument.

If you can feel comfortable voting for the Liberals, then that's your prerogative. But do not delude yourself in believing you will have the deciding vote. I can guarantee that will not be the case.

The relationship many progressives have with the Liberals borders on a protection racket. They have single handedly eliminated the one policy that would allow for a progressive alternative to the Liberals and Tories, and then have the chutzpah to play up fear of a Tory government if progressives don't forgive their myriad of sins against progressive politics.

Thus, we see progressives voting for Justin the Blackface Pipeline Mogul to defend against Tory racism or climate inaction or something. It's surreal. I genuinely pity the NDP/Greens and their supporters for having to put up with this nonsense.

I tend to agree with a lot of your points here. The problem is that I see this as a high-stakes election where a Scheer government outcome is unacceptable. At this particular point in time, I feel preventing the worst-case scenario is more important than advocating for my beliefs. Normally in most elections, I would (and do) vote NDP.

If I was an American, I would be voting for Biden over Trump if it came down to it, even if Bernie was hypoethetically  running third party but also in this scenario had no path to actually winning the presidency. Sometimes the stakes are just too high to not be tactical and practical IMO.

https://www.thebeaverton.com/2014/06/staunch-new-democrat-to-vote-liberal-again/

[Hatman 🍁]

Jagmeet has done an amazing job turning his approvals around. Not too long ago he had a net disapproval, which is rare for an NDP leader, and was very discouraging. But now, we're seeing the guy that was able to win the leadership in the first place.

[EastAnglianLefty]

It's interesting that Singh's approval ratings seem to be best in Atlantic Canada, given that the NDP are likely to win very few seat there. It sort of seems like Canadians have decided to really like Singh to make up for the fact they're still planning on voting Liberal.

[136or142]

I'm not quite sure how to ask this question, but what is the minimum percentage of the vote a party could realistically receive and still win a majority?  Especially with there being 5-6 major political parties.

For instance, Labor in the U.K in 2005 won 35.2% of the vote but won a comfortable majority of 366 of 646 seats. I don't know that anybody expected that to happen.

[lilTommy]

I'm not quite sure how to ask this question, but what is the minimum percentage of the vote a party could realistically receive and still win a majority?  Especially with there being 5-6 major political parties.

For instance, Labor in the U.K in 2005 won 35.2% of the vote but won a comfortable majority of 366 of 646 seats. I don't know that anybody expected that to happen.

Based on the last two majorities, 2011 and 2015, about 39%. We had minorities in 2008 (37% for the largest party) and 2006 (36%).

[Hatman 🍁]

The thing is, the "non-Liberal/Cons" vote is fractured evenly between the NDP and Greens, which should theoretically make winning  a majority easier. But an increase in Bloc seats makes it harder.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

For instance, Labor in the U.K in 2005 won 35.2% of the vote but won a comfortable majority of 366 of 646 seats. I don't know that anybody expected that to happen.

That was a very unusual election in that the party that won polled poorly - really badly - in a lot of its usual strongholds, but held up well with swing voters.

[EastAnglianLefty]

The thing is, the "non-Liberal/Cons" vote is fractured evenly between the NDP and Greens, which should theoretically make winning  a majority easier. But an increase in Bloc seats makes it harder.

Potentially also relevant that most of the places where the Greens do well are good for the NDP or vice versa, which tends to mean more of the "non-Liberal/Cons" vote is wasted.

But then again, I'd assume the Greens will also do better where the Liberals do better, so the only beneficiaries of that would be the Conservatives, who aren't in a position to win enough Quebec seats for an easy majority.

[super6646]

Good to see the NDP and Bloc do well. Anything to hurt the Liberal coalition at this point is only doing good for this country.

[Poirot]

Since support levels have moved the riding polls of 3-4 weeks ago are not worth much. This one confirms Bloc is doing well in the regions.

Mainstreet for Montmagny-L’Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup, October 5 (so after first French debate), margin 4%.

Bloc is at 29,3%, Conservative 28,9% and Liberal at 22, 6%. NDP 8, Green 6, PPC 4.

https://www.lesoleil.com/actualite/elections-2019/bloc-et-conservateur-au-coude-a-coude-dans-montmagny-selon-mainstreet-0744260b0683dad4151de5a71d79cecb

In 2015 Conservative won with 29%, 270 ahead of Liberal, Bloc was 4th with 16%.. The Liberal candidate's first name is Aladin. Trudeau must have liked that!

[T'Chenka]

Singh looks great. Such a shame that the NDP never polls well enough pre-election for NDP supporters to feel like actually voting NDP at the ballot box isn't a waste of a vote in many of the ridings.

Yeah tactical voting looks like it'll squeeze the NDP again. It's tragic how they lost in 2015, I wish Mulcair had won that election and the NDP was the major party of the left.

My riding is strictly red or blue most of the time, but in that 2015 election it was really looking like the NDP had a shot. I will sadly be tactical voting myself this time, against Scheer's Conservatives. In my riding the best way to.do so is to vote Liberal. The stakes are too high with the climate crisis for me to spend my vote virtue signalling that I support the NDP in a riding where they will not win (this time).

If the polls start massively shifting away from Trudeau and towards Singh, I will vote NDP. It looks like that won't be happening though.

You do realize, your vote isn't going to be the deciding vote in this election, right?

Tactical voting on the level of the individual makes no logical sense.

(1) You have no idea which riding I am in or just how close the polls or results will be between Scheer and Trudeau in my riding. You DON'T KNOW one vote won't count. Ignorant post.

(2) If you haven't figured out, there are likely hundreds or maybe even a thousand plus people in my riding with politics like mine making these same calculations. If we all vote strategically or if none of us vote strategically, it can have a big impact in my riding. Your "one vote doesn't count" argument is a flawed way of thinking. If all of us took your advice and just voted for our preferred party regardless of the situation, we alone as a group could cause a Conservative MP for this riding. Which could be the one MP needed to put Scheer over 50%, or the one MP the Liberal-NDP coalition needed to exceed 50% but now they need to negotiate with the Greens as well to form a government.

(1) Doesn't matter what riding you live in. The chance that your vote will be the deciding vote is negligible. You'd have a better chance getting in a car accident on you way to vote. I've studied elections for a long time. I can count on one hand how many elections have been decided by one vote at all levels of government.

(2) An individual vote is an individual vote. A group of people does not equal a monolithic vote group.

If people like you did vote for who they really wanted instead of stopping who they didn't want, the Liberals would tack left to try and get your votes. If you just vote for them anyway, they don't have to make that shift electorally. If no one votes NDP or Green, then there's no incentive for the Liberals to tack left at all.

And I get it, if everyone like you voted their conscience, maybe the Tories would win. Perhaps that would make for a good punishment for Trudeau for abandoning his electoral reform promise. If he went ahead with his promise, we wouldn't be having this argument.

If you can feel comfortable voting for the Liberals, then that's your prerogative. But do not delude yourself in believing you will have the deciding vote. I can guarantee that will not be the case.

The relationship many progressives have with the Liberals borders on a protection racket. They have single handedly eliminated the one policy that would allow for a progressive alternative to the Liberals and Tories, and then have the chutzpah to play up fear of a Tory government if progressives don't forgive their myriad of sins against progressive politics.

Thus, we see progressives voting for Justin the Blackface Pipeline Mogul to defend against Tory racism or climate inaction or something. It's surreal. I genuinely pity the NDP/Greens and their supporters for having to put up with this nonsense.

I tend to agree with a lot of your points here. The problem is that I see this as a high-stakes election where a Scheer government outcome is unacceptable. At this particular point in time, I feel preventing the worst-case scenario is more important than advocating for my beliefs. Normally in most elections, I would (and do) vote NDP.

If I was an American, I would be voting for Biden over Trump if it came down to it, even if Bernie was hypoethetically  running third party but also in this scenario had no path to actually winning the presidency. Sometimes the stakes are just too high to not be tactical and practical IMO.

https://www.thebeaverton.com/2014/06/staunch-new-democrat-to-vote-liberal-again/

That's both funny and sad. Tbat said, I only vote tactically in elections I feel very strongly that a Party must be defeated at all costs. This will be my first time actually, excluding municipal-level voting.

I've voted Layton, Layton, Mulcair and now Trudeau in the last four elections. In provincial elections I've voted Hampton, Horwath and most recently Horwath.

[Poirot]

Leger 10/9

LPC: 31% (-3)
CPC: 31% (-3)
NDP: 18% (+4)
GPC: 11% (-)
PPC: 3% (+1)

*Note: BQ not included in federal numbers, but polling at 29% in QC specifically. (LPC - 31%, CPC - 16%, NDP 13%, GRN - 7%, PPC - 3%)

Léger has a big enough sample for regional numbers to be  meaningful.
In greater Montreal area, Lib still lead with 39%, Bloc rise to 24%, NPD rise to 16, Conservative 10, Green 8. If the NDP vote is concentrated in their good ridings maybe they can win more than Rosemont.

Quebec City still has Conservatives in the lead with 37%, Liberal 22, Bloc 21, NDP 11.
Rest of Quebec is Bloc 37%, Liberal 23, Conservative 20,  NDP 11.

Even if the Bloc and Liberals are about ties around 30%, The Bloc has a strong lead with fancophone voters.  Bloc 37, Liberal 24, Conservative 17, NDP 13. Non-francophone is Lib 54%,  NDP 15, Conservative 14, Green 7, PPC 5, Bloc 3

For best PM Trudeau is at 30%, Singh and Scheer at 12%, May 5, Bernier 3. They don't seem to include Blanchet in the choices.

There is a question about what you worry most, 4 more years of Trudeau or a return to power of the Conservatives. Fear of Conservatives got 48%, more Trudeau 37%. PPC and CPC are clearly no more Trudeau and Liberal fear Conservative, all near 80% level. NDP and Green is more 60% worry Conservative 30% worry Trudeau. Bloc is evenly split at 44%.

There are questions about the first debate and on second choice. NDP is most popular second choice with 21%, Bloc , Green Liberal, 14-13-13, Conservative 10.

Second choice of Liberal voters is NDP 30%. Bloc 23, Green 14, CPC 9 PPC 1.
Second choice of Bloc: Liberal 20, NDP 18, CPC 16, Green 11, PPC 3
Second choice of Conservative: 23% NDP, 16% Bloc, 11% Green, 10 PPC, 9 Liberal.
Second choice of NDP: 30% LPC, 25 Green, 17 Bloc, 12 CPC, 1 PPC
Second choice of Green: 39 NDP, 29 LPC,  11 Bloc, 4 CPC, 2 PPC
Second choice of PPC: 30% CPC, 19 Bloc, 8 NDP, Green 5, PLC 0

It looks like there is more link between Liberal, NDP and Green party voters. Some more surprising things is NDP being top choice of Conservatives. I think Bloc was a popular second choic in earlier poll but maybe those have migrated already. Also the first choice of Bloc is Liberal which is not natural but it's split evenly between three parties. Bloc is second choice of Liberal voters.

Léger Quebec results of the federal poll
https://leger360.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Politique-fe%CC%81de%CC%81rale-au-Que%CC%81bec-10-oct-2019.pdf

[ON Progressive]

Leger 10/9

LPC: 31% (-3)
CPC: 31% (-3)
NDP: 18% (+4)
GPC: 11% (-)
PPC: 3% (+1)

*Note: BQ not included in federal numbers, but polling at 29% in QC specifically. (LPC - 31%, CPC - 16%, NDP 13%, GRN - 7%, PPC - 3%)

Léger has a big enough sample for regional numbers to be  meaningful.
In greater Montreal area, Lib still lead with 39%, Bloc rise to 24%, NPD rise to 16, Conservative 10, Green 8. If the NDP vote is concentrated in their good ridings maybe they can win more than Rosemont.

Quebec City still has Conservatives in the lead with 37%, Liberal 22, Bloc 21, NDP 11.
Rest of Quebec is Bloc 37%, Liberal 23, Conservative 20,  NDP 11.

Even if the Bloc and Liberals are about ties around 30%, The Bloc has a strong lead with fancophone voters.  Bloc 37, Liberal 24, Conservative 17, NDP 13. Non-francophone is Lib 54%,  NDP 15, Conservative 14, Green 7, PPC 5, Bloc 3

For best PM Trudeau is at 30%, Singh and Scheer at 12%, May 5, Bernier 3. They don't seem to include Blanchet in the choices.

There is a question about what you worry most, 4 more years of Trudeau or a return to power of the Conservatives. Fear of Conservatives got 48%, more Trudeau 37%. PPC and CPC are clearly no more Trudeau and Liberal fear Conservative, all near 80% level. NDP and Green is more 60% worry Conservative 30% worry Trudeau. Bloc is evenly split at 44%.

There are questions about the first debate and on second choice. NDP is most popular second choice with 21%, Bloc , Green Liberal, 14-13-13, Conservative 10.

Second choice of Liberal voters is NDP 30%. Bloc 23, Green 14, CPC 9 PPC 1.
Second choice of Bloc: Liberal 20, NDP 18, CPC 16, Green 11, PPC 3
Second choice of Conservative: 23% NDP, 16% Bloc, 11% Green, 10 PPC, 9 Liberal.
Second choice of NDP: 30% LPC, 25 Green, 17 Bloc, 12 CPC, 1 PPC
Second choice of Green: 39 NDP, 29 LPC,  11 Bloc, 4 CPC, 2 PPC
Second choice of PPC: 30% CPC, 19 Bloc, 8 NDP, Green 5, PLC 0

It looks like there is more link between Liberal, NDP and Green party voters. Some more surprising things is NDP being top choice of Conservatives. I think Bloc was a popular second choic in earlier poll but maybe those have migrated already. Also the first choice of Bloc is Liberal which is not natural but it's split evenly between three parties. Bloc is second choice of Liberal voters.

Léger Quebec results of the federal poll
https://leger360.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Politique-fe%CC%81de%CC%81rale-au-Que%CC%81bec-10-oct-2019.pdf

My theory is this is an Anything But Trudeau thing. 23% of Conservatives in the Angus Reid national poll have the NDP as a second choice as well.

[DC Al Fine]

https://twitter.com/MariekeWalsh/status/1182481910527909893

Trudeau doing his best Kellie Leitch impression.

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/MariekeWalsh/status/1182481910527909893

Trudeau doing his best Kellie Leitch impression.

Why on earth is he doing this? This seems like something that would turn off more voters than gain, if for no other reason but because it seems rather phony from him.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

https://twitter.com/MariekeWalsh/status/1182481910527909893

Trudeau doing his best Kellie Leitch impression.

Why on earth is he doing this? This seems like something that would turn off more voters than gain, if for no other reason but because it seems rather phony from him.

Probably trying to stop the Bloc surge in Quebec.

[Hatman 🍁]

Singh looks great. Such a shame that the NDP never polls well enough pre-election for NDP supporters to feel like actually voting NDP at the ballot box isn't a waste of a vote in many of the ridings.

Yeah tactical voting looks like it'll squeeze the NDP again. It's tragic how they lost in 2015, I wish Mulcair had won that election and the NDP was the major party of the left.

My riding is strictly red or blue most of the time, but in that 2015 election it was really looking like the NDP had a shot. I will sadly be tactical voting myself this time, against Scheer's Conservatives. In my riding the best way to.do so is to vote Liberal. The stakes are too high with the climate crisis for me to spend my vote virtue signalling that I support the NDP in a riding where they will not win (this time).

If the polls start massively shifting away from Trudeau and towards Singh, I will vote NDP. It looks like that won't be happening though.

You do realize, your vote isn't going to be the deciding vote in this election, right?

Tactical voting on the level of the individual makes no logical sense.

(1) You have no idea which riding I am in or just how close the polls or results will be between Scheer and Trudeau in my riding. You DON'T KNOW one vote won't count. Ignorant post.

(2) If you haven't figured out, there are likely hundreds or maybe even a thousand plus people in my riding with politics like mine making these same calculations. If we all vote strategically or if none of us vote strategically, it can have a big impact in my riding. Your "one vote doesn't count" argument is a flawed way of thinking. If all of us took your advice and just voted for our preferred party regardless of the situation, we alone as a group could cause a Conservative MP for this riding. Which could be the one MP needed to put Scheer over 50%, or the one MP the Liberal-NDP coalition needed to exceed 50% but now they need to negotiate with the Greens as well to form a government.

(1) Doesn't matter what riding you live in. The chance that your vote will be the deciding vote is negligible. You'd have a better chance getting in a car accident on you way to vote. I've studied elections for a long time. I can count on one hand how many elections have been decided by one vote at all levels of government.

(2) An individual vote is an individual vote. A group of people does not equal a monolithic vote group.

If people like you did vote for who they really wanted instead of stopping who they didn't want, the Liberals would tack left to try and get your votes. If you just vote for them anyway, they don't have to make that shift electorally. If no one votes NDP or Green, then there's no incentive for the Liberals to tack left at all.

And I get it, if everyone like you voted their conscience, maybe the Tories would win. Perhaps that would make for a good punishment for Trudeau for abandoning his electoral reform promise. If he went ahead with his promise, we wouldn't be having this argument.

If you can feel comfortable voting for the Liberals, then that's your prerogative. But do not delude yourself in believing you will have the deciding vote. I can guarantee that will not be the case.

The relationship many progressives have with the Liberals borders on a protection racket. They have single handedly eliminated the one policy that would allow for a progressive alternative to the Liberals and Tories, and then have the chutzpah to play up fear of a Tory government if progressives don't forgive their myriad of sins against progressive politics.

Thus, we see progressives voting for Justin the Blackface Pipeline Mogul to defend against Tory racism or climate inaction or something. It's surreal. I genuinely pity the NDP/Greens and their supporters for having to put up with this nonsense.

I tend to agree with a lot of your points here. The problem is that I see this as a high-stakes election where a Scheer government outcome is unacceptable. At this particular point in time, I feel preventing the worst-case scenario is more important than advocating for my beliefs. Normally in most elections, I would (and do) vote NDP.

If I was an American, I would be voting for Biden over Trump if it came down to it, even if Bernie was hypoethetically  running third party but also in this scenario had no path to actually winning the presidency. Sometimes the stakes are just too high to not be tactical and practical IMO.

https://www.thebeaverton.com/2014/06/staunch-new-democrat-to-vote-liberal-again/

That's both funny and sad. Tbat said, I only vote tactically in elections I feel very strongly that a Party must be defeated at all costs. This will be my first time actually, excluding municipal-level voting.

I've voted Layton, Layton, Mulcair and now Trudeau in the last four elections. In provincial elections I've voted Hampton, Horwath and most recently Horwath.

So, you think Scheer is scarier than Harper?

A lot of progressives voted Liberal in 2015 to give the boot to Harper, but you didn't.

I don't think Scheer is worse than Harper. Perhaps he is "just as bad", but not worse.

[rob in cal]

  I wonder how the typical pro Quebec independence voter feels about lots of immigration coming into Quebec? If they are really serious about achieving a seperate country with its own french speaking heritage, cultural identity etc does the globalization of the population help that goal?