Canadian Election 2019
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Continential
The Op
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« Reply #1200 on: October 09, 2019, 05:03:19 PM »

I find it interesting that Muclair hates Singh due to his stance on Bill 21.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #1201 on: October 09, 2019, 05:11:08 PM »

I find it interesting that Muclair hates Singh due to his stance on Bill 21.

Mulcair is probably forced to that by his rabidly pro-21 employer, PKP.
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Continential
The Op
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« Reply #1202 on: October 09, 2019, 05:31:21 PM »

I find it interesting that Muclair hates Singh due to his stance on Bill 21.

Mulcair is probably forced to that by his rabidly pro-21 employer, PKP.
Also who supports 21, (I assume that English speaking Qubecians don't support Bill 21)?
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adma
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« Reply #1203 on: October 09, 2019, 06:41:52 PM »

Keep in mind that Mainstreet is based on a three-day roll - so only one third of their sample from the poll referred to above is post-debate

The simple fact of the NDP approaching mid-teens in a Mainstreet poll is telling enough.  Guess the days of Audrey single-digit numbers and 4th behind the Greens are well and over...
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T'Chenka
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« Reply #1204 on: October 10, 2019, 02:51:41 AM »

Singh looks great. Such a shame that the NDP never polls well enough pre-election for NDP supporters to feel like actually voting NDP at the ballot box isn't a waste of a vote in many of the ridings.

Yeah tactical voting looks like it'll squeeze the NDP again. It's tragic how they lost in 2015, I wish Mulcair had won that election and the NDP was the major party of the left.
My riding is strictly red or blue most of the time, but in that 2015 election it was really looking like the NDP had a shot. I will sadly be tactical voting myself this time, against Scheer's Conservatives. In my riding the best way to.do so is to vote Liberal. The stakes are too high with the climate crisis for me to spend my vote virtue signalling that I support the NDP in a riding where they will not win (this time).

If the polls start massively shifting away from Trudeau and towards Singh, I will vote NDP. It looks like that won't be happening though.

You do realize, your vote isn't going to be the deciding vote in this election, right?

Tactical voting on the level of the individual makes no logical sense.
(1) You have no idea which riding I am in or just how close the polls or results will be between Scheer and Trudeau in my riding. You DON'T KNOW one vote won't count. Ignorant post.

(2) If you haven't figured out, there are likely hundreds or maybe even a thousand plus people in my riding with politics like mine making these same calculations. If we all vote strategically or if none of us vote strategically, it can have a big impact in my riding. Your "one vote doesn't count" argument is a flawed way of thinking. If all of us took your advice and just voted for our preferred party regardless of the situation, we alone as a group could cause a Conservative MP for this riding. Which could be the one MP needed to put Scheer over 50%, or the one MP the Liberal-NDP coalition needed to exceed 50% but now they need to negotiate with the Greens as well to form a government.
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T'Chenka
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« Reply #1205 on: October 10, 2019, 02:57:12 AM »

Singh looks great. Such a shame that the NDP never polls well enough pre-election for NDP supporters to feel like actually voting NDP at the ballot box isn't a waste of a vote in many of the ridings.

Yeah tactical voting looks like it'll squeeze the NDP again. It's tragic how they lost in 2015, I wish Mulcair had won that election and the NDP was the major party of the left.
My riding is strictly red or blue most of the time, but in that 2015 election it was really looking like the NDP had a shot. I will sadly be tactical voting myself this time, against Scheer's Conservatives. In my riding the best way to.do so is to vote Liberal. The stakes are too high with the climate crisis for me to spend my vote virtue signalling that I support the NDP in a riding where they will not win (this time).

If the polls start massively shifting away from Trudeau and towards Singh, I will vote NDP. It looks like that won't be happening though.

You do realize, your vote isn't going to be the deciding vote in this election, right?

Tactical voting on the level of the individual makes no logical sense.

This x1000

Vote your conscience. Imperfect politicians don't deserve your non-decisive vote just because of how they're polling.
My conscience says that a Conservative government making Canadian climate change policy is unacceptable, and not doing my small small part to try to prevent that is a moral duty that I cannot neglect.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #1206 on: October 10, 2019, 04:18:42 AM »

Singh looks great. Such a shame that the NDP never polls well enough pre-election for NDP supporters to feel like actually voting NDP at the ballot box isn't a waste of a vote in many of the ridings.

Yeah tactical voting looks like it'll squeeze the NDP again. It's tragic how they lost in 2015, I wish Mulcair had won that election and the NDP was the major party of the left.
My riding is strictly red or blue most of the time, but in that 2015 election it was really looking like the NDP had a shot. I will sadly be tactical voting myself this time, against Scheer's Conservatives. In my riding the best way to.do so is to vote Liberal. The stakes are too high with the climate crisis for me to spend my vote virtue signalling that I support the NDP in a riding where they will not win (this time).

If the polls start massively shifting away from Trudeau and towards Singh, I will vote NDP. It looks like that won't be happening though.

You do realize, your vote isn't going to be the deciding vote in this election, right?

Tactical voting on the level of the individual makes no logical sense.

This x1000

Vote your conscience. Imperfect politicians don't deserve your non-decisive vote just because of how they're polling.
My conscience says that a Conservative government making Canadian climate change policy is unacceptable, and not doing my small small part to try to prevent that is a moral duty that I cannot neglect.


Right. Doing what you can to prevent a Tory government, even if it means tactically supporting a less-preferred party, is not only how politics works, it also Is "voting your conscience." 
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1207 on: October 10, 2019, 05:51:20 AM »
« Edited: October 10, 2019, 06:07:50 AM by DC Al Fine »

Singh looks great. Such a shame that the NDP never polls well enough pre-election for NDP supporters to feel like actually voting NDP at the ballot box isn't a waste of a vote in many of the ridings.

Yeah tactical voting looks like it'll squeeze the NDP again. It's tragic how they lost in 2015, I wish Mulcair had won that election and the NDP was the major party of the left.
My riding is strictly red or blue most of the time, but in that 2015 election it was really looking like the NDP had a shot. I will sadly be tactical voting myself this time, against Scheer's Conservatives. In my riding the best way to.do so is to vote Liberal. The stakes are too high with the climate crisis for me to spend my vote virtue signalling that I support the NDP in a riding where they will not win (this time).

If the polls start massively shifting away from Trudeau and towards Singh, I will vote NDP. It looks like that won't be happening though.

You do realize, your vote isn't going to be the deciding vote in this election, right?

Tactical voting on the level of the individual makes no logical sense.

This x1000

Vote your conscience. Imperfect politicians don't deserve your non-decisive vote just because of how they're polling.
My conscience says that a Conservative government making Canadian climate change policy is unacceptable, and not doing my small small part to try to prevent that is a moral duty that I cannot neglect.


Right. Doing what you can to prevent a Tory government, even if it means tactically supporting a less-preferred party, is not only how politics works, it also Is "voting your conscience." 

Weren't you talking about being open to and volunteering for Joint List? And you're advocating tactical voting to keep Bibi Scheer out? Ok you do you.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1208 on: October 10, 2019, 05:54:35 AM »

Singh looks great. Such a shame that the NDP never polls well enough pre-election for NDP supporters to feel like actually voting NDP at the ballot box isn't a waste of a vote in many of the ridings.

Yeah tactical voting looks like it'll squeeze the NDP again. It's tragic how they lost in 2015, I wish Mulcair had won that election and the NDP was the major party of the left.
My riding is strictly red or blue most of the time, but in that 2015 election it was really looking like the NDP had a shot. I will sadly be tactical voting myself this time, against Scheer's Conservatives. In my riding the best way to.do so is to vote Liberal. The stakes are too high with the climate crisis for me to spend my vote virtue signalling that I support the NDP in a riding where they will not win (this time).

If the polls start massively shifting away from Trudeau and towards Singh, I will vote NDP. It looks like that won't be happening though.

You do realize, your vote isn't going to be the deciding vote in this election, right?

Tactical voting on the level of the individual makes no logical sense.
(1) You have no idea which riding I am in or just how close the polls or results will be between Scheer and Trudeau in my riding. You DON'T KNOW one vote won't count. Ignorant post.

Tell you what Tchenka. Why don't you tell us your riding, and if your vote actually is the deciding one, Hatman and I will buy you a case of beer. This isn't a PEI village council election so I feel comfortable making that bet.
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adma
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« Reply #1209 on: October 10, 2019, 06:10:14 AM »

Strategic voting has *always* happened; it's just that in this age of social media, people speak of it as if it were a new invention (oh!  gee whiz,I gotta vote strategically).  It's why the NDP has *always* been the third party, much like the Libs/Lib Dems in Britain since their "strange death".

Oh, and Nanos is continuing to show Singhmania underperforming when it comes to voter intent: in today's tracker, only up to 14.1 from 13.4--but the Libs and Cons separated 36.9-33.2.  (But Singh's approvals up from 10.9 to 12.3.)
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1210 on: October 10, 2019, 06:32:55 AM »

Paywalled, but Globe reports MacKay's friends are organizing a leadership run should Trudeau win.
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DL
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« Reply #1211 on: October 10, 2019, 06:45:04 AM »

Strategic voting has *always* happened; it's just that in this age of social media, people speak of it as if it were a new invention (oh!  gee whiz,I gotta vote strategically).  It's why the NDP has *always* been the third party, much like the Libs/Lib Dems in Britain since their "strange death".

Oh, and Nanos is continuing to show Singhmania underperforming when it comes to voter intent: in today's tracker, only up to 14.1 from 13.4--but the Libs and Cons separated 36.9-33.2.  (But Singh's approvals up from 10.9 to 12.3.)

That’s not “approval” it’s “best Prime Minister”
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #1212 on: October 10, 2019, 07:53:53 AM »

Singh looks great. Such a shame that the NDP never polls well enough pre-election for NDP supporters to feel like actually voting NDP at the ballot box isn't a waste of a vote in many of the ridings.

Yeah tactical voting looks like it'll squeeze the NDP again. It's tragic how they lost in 2015, I wish Mulcair had won that election and the NDP was the major party of the left.
My riding is strictly red or blue most of the time, but in that 2015 election it was really looking like the NDP had a shot. I will sadly be tactical voting myself this time, against Scheer's Conservatives. In my riding the best way to.do so is to vote Liberal. The stakes are too high with the climate crisis for me to spend my vote virtue signalling that I support the NDP in a riding where they will not win (this time).

If the polls start massively shifting away from Trudeau and towards Singh, I will vote NDP. It looks like that won't be happening though.

You do realize, your vote isn't going to be the deciding vote in this election, right?

Tactical voting on the level of the individual makes no logical sense.

This x1000

Vote your conscience. Imperfect politicians don't deserve your non-decisive vote just because of how they're polling.
My conscience says that a Conservative government making Canadian climate change policy is unacceptable, and not doing my small small part to try to prevent that is a moral duty that I cannot neglect.


Right. Doing what you can to prevent a Tory government, even if it means tactically supporting a less-preferred party, is not only how politics works, it also Is "voting your conscience." 

Weren't you talking about being open to and volunteering for Joint List? And you're advocating tactical voting to keep Bibi Scheer out? Ok you do you.

Israeli politics work very differently than Canada's non-proportional system. Supporting left wing parties in Israel actually helped beat the right wing, but in Canada it will only hurt. In Anglo-FPTP  systems you don't have the convenience of being dogmatic like yoi do in Israel.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1213 on: October 10, 2019, 08:17:37 AM »

Singh looks great. Such a shame that the NDP never polls well enough pre-election for NDP supporters to feel like actually voting NDP at the ballot box isn't a waste of a vote in many of the ridings.

Yeah tactical voting looks like it'll squeeze the NDP again. It's tragic how they lost in 2015, I wish Mulcair had won that election and the NDP was the major party of the left.
My riding is strictly red or blue most of the time, but in that 2015 election it was really looking like the NDP had a shot. I will sadly be tactical voting myself this time, against Scheer's Conservatives. In my riding the best way to.do so is to vote Liberal. The stakes are too high with the climate crisis for me to spend my vote virtue signalling that I support the NDP in a riding where they will not win (this time).

If the polls start massively shifting away from Trudeau and towards Singh, I will vote NDP. It looks like that won't be happening though.

You do realize, your vote isn't going to be the deciding vote in this election, right?

Tactical voting on the level of the individual makes no logical sense.

This x1000

Vote your conscience. Imperfect politicians don't deserve your non-decisive vote just because of how they're polling.
My conscience says that a Conservative government making Canadian climate change policy is unacceptable, and not doing my small small part to try to prevent that is a moral duty that I cannot neglect.


Right. Doing what you can to prevent a Tory government, even if it means tactically supporting a less-preferred party, is not only how politics works, it also Is "voting your conscience." 

Weren't you talking about being open to and volunteering for Joint List? And you're advocating tactical voting to keep Bibi Scheer out? Ok you do you.

Israeli politics work very differently than Canada's non-proportional system. Supporting left wing parties in Israel actually helped beat the right wing, but in Canada it will only hurt. In Anglo-FPTP  systems you don't have the convenience of being dogmatic like yoi do in Israel.

Correct on the face of it, but Arab parties have difficulty joining in governments in Israel. Your vote didn't elect any Likudniks, but in a very small way, it made the "coalition math" harder for anti-Bibi parties. If your #1 goal was to displace Bibi you would be better served by voting for one of the Jewish left parties.

Now of course I don't care. People should vote for their preferred party and individual votes don't make a meaningful difference. Heck, there is a fringe party I would vote for if I was able. But the your situation is closer to Anglo-FPTP than you are letting on.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1214 on: October 10, 2019, 08:39:17 AM »

Strategic voting has *always* happened; it's just that in this age of social media, people speak of it as if it were a new invention (oh!  gee whiz,I gotta vote strategically).  It's why the NDP has *always* been the third party, much like the Libs/Lib Dems in Britain since their "strange death".

The one exception of an election actually proving the rule - the moment it became clear in 2011 that the NDP were in the stronger position, all of that logic turned on its head and flowed the other way. A salutary reminder that most voters make a calculation based on the options presented to them, rather than use the ballot as a means of expressing fundamental identity. Less and less do that, in nearly all countries, with every passing year.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #1215 on: October 10, 2019, 09:18:06 AM »

Singh looks great. Such a shame that the NDP never polls well enough pre-election for NDP supporters to feel like actually voting NDP at the ballot box isn't a waste of a vote in many of the ridings.

Yeah tactical voting looks like it'll squeeze the NDP again. It's tragic how they lost in 2015, I wish Mulcair had won that election and the NDP was the major party of the left.
My riding is strictly red or blue most of the time, but in that 2015 election it was really looking like the NDP had a shot. I will sadly be tactical voting myself this time, against Scheer's Conservatives. In my riding the best way to.do so is to vote Liberal. The stakes are too high with the climate crisis for me to spend my vote virtue signalling that I support the NDP in a riding where they will not win (this time).

If the polls start massively shifting away from Trudeau and towards Singh, I will vote NDP. It looks like that won't be happening though.

You do realize, your vote isn't going to be the deciding vote in this election, right?

Tactical voting on the level of the individual makes no logical sense.
(1) You have no idea which riding I am in or just how close the polls or results will be between Scheer and Trudeau in my riding. You DON'T KNOW one vote won't count. Ignorant post.

(2) If you haven't figured out, there are likely hundreds or maybe even a thousand plus people in my riding with politics like mine making these same calculations. If we all vote strategically or if none of us vote strategically, it can have a big impact in my riding. Your "one vote doesn't count" argument is a flawed way of thinking. If all of us took your advice and just voted for our preferred party regardless of the situation, we alone as a group could cause a Conservative MP for this riding. Which could be the one MP needed to put Scheer over 50%, or the one MP the Liberal-NDP coalition needed to exceed 50% but now they need to negotiate with the Greens as well to form a government.

(1) Doesn't matter what riding you live in. The chance that your vote will be the deciding vote is negligible. You'd have a better chance getting in a car accident on you way to vote. I've studied elections for a long time. I can count on one hand how many elections have been decided by one vote at all levels of government.

(2) An individual vote is an individual vote. A group of people does not equal a monolithic vote group.

If people like you did vote for who they really wanted instead of stopping who they didn't want, the Liberals would tack left to try and get your votes. If you just vote for them anyway, they don't have to make that shift electorally. If no one votes NDP or Green, then there's no incentive for the Liberals to tack left at all.

And I get it, if everyone like you voted their conscience, maybe the Tories would win. Perhaps that would make for a good punishment for Trudeau for abandoning his electoral reform promise. If he went ahead with his promise, we wouldn't be having this argument.

If you can feel comfortable voting for the Liberals, then that's your prerogative. But do not delude yourself in believing you will have the deciding vote. I can guarantee that will not be the case.
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« Reply #1216 on: October 10, 2019, 09:21:14 AM »

Are the good results im seeing for BQ in some polls solely due to the secularism issue?
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #1217 on: October 10, 2019, 09:23:26 AM »

Singh looks great. Such a shame that the NDP never polls well enough pre-election for NDP supporters to feel like actually voting NDP at the ballot box isn't a waste of a vote in many of the ridings.

Yeah tactical voting looks like it'll squeeze the NDP again. It's tragic how they lost in 2015, I wish Mulcair had won that election and the NDP was the major party of the left.
My riding is strictly red or blue most of the time, but in that 2015 election it was really looking like the NDP had a shot. I will sadly be tactical voting myself this time, against Scheer's Conservatives. In my riding the best way to.do so is to vote Liberal. The stakes are too high with the climate crisis for me to spend my vote virtue signalling that I support the NDP in a riding where they will not win (this time).

If the polls start massively shifting away from Trudeau and towards Singh, I will vote NDP. It looks like that won't be happening though.

You do realize, your vote isn't going to be the deciding vote in this election, right?

Tactical voting on the level of the individual makes no logical sense.
(1) You have no idea which riding I am in or just how close the polls or results will be between Scheer and Trudeau in my riding. You DON'T KNOW one vote won't count. Ignorant post.

Tell you what Tchenka. Why don't you tell us your riding, and if your vote actually is the deciding one, Hatman and I will buy you a case of beer. This isn't a PEI village council election so I feel comfortable making that bet.

A case of beer? I will buy him a life's supply of beer if that happens to be the case.
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Krago
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« Reply #1218 on: October 10, 2019, 10:54:55 AM »

I have actually been involved in an election decided by one vote.  A friend ran for school trustee in the City of York in 1988 and lost to the incumbent by one vote.  Four electors had been given the wrong ballot, so a judge tossed out the result and ordered a new election.  My friend won by ten votes.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1988_Toronto_municipal_election#Board_of_Trustees

Also, there have been two ties in recent Quebec provincial (er.. national) elections: Saint-Jean in 1994 and Champlain in 2003.  Champlain had been won by a 15-vote margin in the 2000 federal election.

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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #1219 on: October 10, 2019, 11:08:32 AM »

The smaller the constituency, the more likely there will be a tie/one vote margin. That's basic math.

In federal election history, there have been three ties (last was in 1963, when ridings had much fewer people). We've also had 9 races decided by 1 vote, but the last one was in 1930. Most of these cases were in the 19th century when only White men with property could vote, and there were no secret ballots.

The last time there was a tie provincially was in 2015 on PEI. But that was PEI, where the ridings are the size of a small neighbourhood.

There are lots of examples in municipal elections too.
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136or142
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« Reply #1220 on: October 10, 2019, 12:14:20 PM »

At this point I'm leaning to voting Liberal just to own the cons.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #1221 on: October 10, 2019, 01:09:13 PM »

Strategic voting has *always* happened; it's just that in this age of social media, people speak of it as if it were a new invention (oh!  gee whiz,I gotta vote strategically).  It's why the NDP has *always* been the third party, much like the Libs/Lib Dems in Britain since their "strange death".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duverger%27s_law
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1222 on: October 10, 2019, 01:20:56 PM »
« Edited: October 10, 2019, 03:29:53 PM by DC Al Fine »

Singh looks great. Such a shame that the NDP never polls well enough pre-election for NDP supporters to feel like actually voting NDP at the ballot box isn't a waste of a vote in many of the ridings.

Yeah tactical voting looks like it'll squeeze the NDP again. It's tragic how they lost in 2015, I wish Mulcair had won that election and the NDP was the major party of the left.
My riding is strictly red or blue most of the time, but in that 2015 election it was really looking like the NDP had a shot. I will sadly be tactical voting myself this time, against Scheer's Conservatives. In my riding the best way to.do so is to vote Liberal. The stakes are too high with the climate crisis for me to spend my vote virtue signalling that I support the NDP in a riding where they will not win (this time).

If the polls start massively shifting away from Trudeau and towards Singh, I will vote NDP. It looks like that won't be happening though.

You do realize, your vote isn't going to be the deciding vote in this election, right?

Tactical voting on the level of the individual makes no logical sense.
(1) You have no idea which riding I am in or just how close the polls or results will be between Scheer and Trudeau in my riding. You DON'T KNOW one vote won't count. Ignorant post.

(2) If you haven't figured out, there are likely hundreds or maybe even a thousand plus people in my riding with politics like mine making these same calculations. If we all vote strategically or if none of us vote strategically, it can have a big impact in my riding. Your "one vote doesn't count" argument is a flawed way of thinking. If all of us took your advice and just voted for our preferred party regardless of the situation, we alone as a group could cause a Conservative MP for this riding. Which could be the one MP needed to put Scheer over 50%, or the one MP the Liberal-NDP coalition needed to exceed 50% but now they need to negotiate with the Greens as well to form a government.

(1) Doesn't matter what riding you live in. The chance that your vote will be the deciding vote is negligible. You'd have a better chance getting in a car accident on you way to vote. I've studied elections for a long time. I can count on one hand how many elections have been decided by one vote at all levels of government.

(2) An individual vote is an individual vote. A group of people does not equal a monolithic vote group.

If people like you did vote for who they really wanted instead of stopping who they didn't want, the Liberals would tack left to try and get your votes. If you just vote for them anyway, they don't have to make that shift electorally. If no one votes NDP or Green, then there's no incentive for the Liberals to tack left at all.

And I get it, if everyone like you voted their conscience, maybe the Tories would win. Perhaps that would make for a good punishment for Trudeau for abandoning his electoral reform promise. If he went ahead with his promise, we wouldn't be having this argument.

If you can feel comfortable voting for the Liberals, then that's your prerogative. But do not delude yourself in believing you will have the deciding vote. I can guarantee that will not be the case.

The relationship many progressives have with the Liberals borders on a protection racket. They have single handedly eliminated the one policy that would allow for a progressive alternative to the Liberals and Tories, and then have the chutzpah to play up fear of a Tory government if progressives don't forgive their myriad of sins against progressive politics.

Thus, we see progressives voting for Justin the Blackface Pipeline Mogul to defend against Tory racism or climate inaction or something. It's surreal. I genuinely pity the NDP/Greens and their supporters for having to put up with this nonsense.
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adma
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« Reply #1223 on: October 10, 2019, 05:22:24 PM »

Strategic voting has *always* happened; it's just that in this age of social media, people speak of it as if it were a new invention (oh!  gee whiz,I gotta vote strategically).  It's why the NDP has *always* been the third party, much like the Libs/Lib Dems in Britain since their "strange death".

The one exception of an election actually proving the rule - the moment it became clear in 2011 that the NDP were in the stronger position, all of that logic turned on its head and flowed the other way. A salutary reminder that most voters make a calculation based on the options presented to them, rather than use the ballot as a means of expressing fundamental identity. Less and less do that, in nearly all countries, with every passing year.

Not to mention Ontario last year (where, if we're going by current polling, *might* also be a single-term phenomenon)
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DL
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« Reply #1224 on: October 10, 2019, 07:11:40 PM »

It was easy for a lot of habitual Liberal voters to go NDP in 2011 because Jack Layton was so popular and Michael Ignatieff was so unpopular. Literally the only reason the Liberals were polling ahead of the NDP in the lead up to the 2011 election was a perception that the NDP had no chance. The second the NDP overtook the Liberals in the polls there was a stampede of “Layton Liberals” to the NDP
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