Canadian Election 2019

[brucejoel99]

How come Singh is running in BC when he lives in Ontario

B/c after his shaky start as leader, he was under intense pressure to get into the Commons sooner rather than later, so he announced in August that he'd run in the eventual by-election in Burnaby South, which was vacated in mid-September by former NDP MP Kennedy Stewart so he could run for Mayor of Vancouver. Unfortunately, not being a fortune teller, he couldn't predict that the MP for the riding he represented for 6 years in the Ontario legislature (& in which he'd likely coast to victory) would resign, so if he says he's changing his mind & running in Brampton, then not only does that screw over the Burnaby NDP, but it also makes him look like a huge hypocrite after declaring he'd run in BC.

[brucejoel99]

Does JWR run again? If so, under whose banner?

To be honest, I could even see the 3 opposition parties declining to field a candidate against JWR if she ran as an independent.

I think she does, & I think she does it as an independent, though it'll be a tough win for her without a party. The riding would have a lame duck backbencher that couldn't do anything for them; might've been different with electoral reform but not with FPTP.

[brucejoel99]

Wilson-Raybould to run as an Independent

Philpott too.

They both called Elizabeth May "an ally" in their speeches, my guess is the Greens have agreed not to run against either of them.

If the election results in a minority government (which is pretty much the expectation as of now), especially a very close one, then you can expect JWR & Philpott (if they win) to have a lot of power & influence.

JWR looks like she'll be able to draw votes from all parties, especially if she's the de-facto Green candidate in her riding, but it's still unclear if it'll be enough to win. IMO, it's going to be much tougher sledding for Philpott, though, in a riding that's already a very tight LPC-CPC race. Unless Philpott can pull some CPC voters over, I'd say her riding is, at the very least, Lean CPC as of now.

Also, say what you will about their politics, & regardless of whichever side of this whole shebang you may fall on, but you gotta admire how these two are committed to sticking together through thick & thin.

[brucejoel99]

Rob Ford's widow is running for the People's Party in Etobicoke North

Further proof that the Fords only care about their name and actually have little regard for the OPCs/CPC. But Kirsty Duncan should still be re-elected.

Its not quite as simple as that...Renata Ford is "one Ford" - but she seems to be on the outs with the rest of the Ford family since she is suing Doug Ford for stealing money from her. I suspect that all the rest of "the Fords" will pull out all stops to ensure she is crushed like a bug

Forgot about that, thanks.

And also, she's "not blood".

Though I can definitely see a lot of the social-media core of Ford Nation banging the drum for PPC in general, Renata or no Renata--and for all I know, they motivated her to run..

I'm guessing all this Ford family drama is not helping the Tories in Ontario-- would I be right?

At this point, nothing related to Ford (familial or otherwise) helps the Tories in Ontario.

[brucejoel99]

In the most hotly contested NDP nomination, probably in the country, Toronto's Parkdale-High Park, the NDP nominated Paul Taylor, Executive of FoodShare Toronto.
I believe he won on the first ballot.
But there are rumblings that many of Saron's supporters were not registered and the executive was not-so-subtly trying to support one candidate over the others.

Really glad he won - he should be a great MP for PHP. I'm not ideologically similar to him but I've seen him campaign, I was very impressed.

Not gonna lie, I quite liked Saron Gebresellassi, plus it just rubs me the wrong way that Taylor was invited to a debate among the candidates prior to the nomination & his team responded by saying he didn't need to attend because he already had it in the bag :/

[brucejoel99]

I wonder if Scheer would get knifed as party leader after one try like what happened to poor Mulclair.

Depends on how they perform come election day. If they gain enough seats that they hold the Liberals to a minority, then I'd presume that his position would be secure through the next election.

[brucejoel99]

and some they've won provincially that I would be quite shocked if they win this fall. 

Etobicoke North for one, I presume.

Yeah I am pretty sure the Tories won't win that, although I think the swing in their favour will probably be more favourable than most ridings in the province, but still a lot of ground to overcome and not sure what riding view is on Ford now.  He has dropped massively provincewide, so expect some drop there, but also that is the turf of Ford Nation so probably polling better than in most parts of the province but doubt it will be nearly enough for Tories to win in this fall.

Though one wild card in Ford Nation turf: Renata Ford's PPC candidacy.

I don't think she's running as part of the Ford clan, though, so that could make a difference as well.

[brucejoel99]

Scheer has dual American citizenship which he is currently renouncing.

He's the reverse Ted Cruz.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/BarackObama/status/1184528998669389824

eLeCtIoN mEdDlInG

[brucejoel99]

Wow. They're actually gonna pull this off. They'll probably be the least deserving elections winners ever, but they're gonna do it.

[brucejoel99]

Im no Canadian election expert, but it’s probably a good thing for the Conservatives if they’re already leading in 8 ridings in a region where they won none in 2015.

Well it was raining in NB today.

Are left wing voters allergic to water?

Yes. Yes, we are.

[brucejoel99]

And so the bloodbath begins...

[brucejoel99]

Wow, that Liberal number is going up fast.

Scheer better get his resignation speech ready.

[brucejoel99]

Liberals look to be bleeding in northern Ontario, and the Bloc is doing well so far in Quebec. NDP way down, and Tories down there too.

As I write this, Tories have pulled ahead of Bernier in Beauce. Can't say I'm disappointed; we don't need a repeat of the 1990s, so the faster his party disappears from the scene the better as far as I'm concerned.

Meanwhile, Bernier is probably on suicide watch.

[brucejoel99]

Wow, that Liberal number is going up fast.

Scheer better get his resignation speech ready.

The Tories number is also going up fast

Not nearly as fast as they need it to be.

Bernier is way behind as of now, if he loses the PPC is done.

To be fair, the Beauce CPC riding association didn't even back him in the leadership race because of his supply management stance. All things considered, it was always gonna be an uphill struggle for him to retain Beauce.

[brucejoel99]

Renata Ford has... one vote. Rock on, Ford Nation!!

And yeah, the Liberals are really doing WAYYYYYYYY better than was expected. Perhaps Frank Graves was right after all.

[brucejoel99]

The polls in BC & Yukon are now closed.

[brucejoel99]

Lisa Raitt losing

Scheer is done. Very disappointing result.

Yeah, & especially so if the Liberals still get a majority after both the SNC scandal as well as multiple black face incidents on the part of Trudeau. If that comes to fruition, then Scheer will have proven himself as one of the worst major party leaders in recent memory.

[brucejoel99]

Yeah, this is over. The only question left is whether it's a strong minority or even a possible majority.

[brucejoel99]

CBC officially projecting a minority government.

[brucejoel99]

One curiosity - the drop in the Liberal vote (about 6.6%) is a very close match to the Liberal drop in 1972 (7%). Just about the only parallel between this election & that one, despite many predictions.

The NDP holding the balance of power over a Trudeau-led Liberal government is a pretty big parallel.

[brucejoel99]

At the end of the day, what a race. I think it has to be seen as a repudiation of Andrew Scheer & the Conservatives, though. He claimed he's put Trudeau "on notice," but that's what my 5th Grade teacher Mrs. Fox did when she wrote names on the whiteboard. Scheer isn't a teacher, & Trudeau isn't a 5th-grader.

As it stands, the Conservatives have received around 6.1 million votes. That's about 500,000 more votes than they received in 2015, & this was the election where it came out that the PM wore blackface more times than he could remember.

Despite all the gnashing of teeth about Trudeau's "horrible" performance as PM, & all the sly nods about the shy Tories, it turns out that running without a climate plan, running on maligning your opponents outright, & explicitly supporting misinformation is a losing plan. Based on the regional results, the Conservatives were supported in the West by a larger margin compared to 2015 while losing votes everywhere else. This despite 4 years (& 40 days) of telling us over & over that Trudeau was ruining this country. So something went wrong.

Despite what the CBC was intimating last night, we know this: Doug Ford is a disaster for the province & the Conservatives. Conservative supporters have trumped Ford up as some messiah, despite every indication that fatigue with Liberals granted him a majority, & we have yet more proof in Toronto last night that Ford is an albatross around the Conservative neck. Maybe somebody on the right will admit he was a bad choice? Maybe, somewhere, a cadre of social conservatives are understanding the depth of their mistake in supporting him?

We know this: the anti-carbon tax crusade was a disastrous position to take, let alone clutch to your chest like a pearl necklace. The Greens received 1.1 million votes in this election. They got 600,000 in 2015, & turnout dropped this time around. Right now, we can see that the Canadian electorate is changing. I think in 5 years' time, we'll be able to say that the Canadian electorate has changed.

All of this to say that as we hear whining about Western alienation & separation in the weeks to come, it's important to remember that a party that seemingly ran on a campaign for the last 4 years (& 40 days) crafted to increase their vote count in ridings that they've already won have dug a hole that Western voters are now sitting in. Andrew Scheer & the Conservatives have alienated the West. Andrew Scheer & the Conservatives are now the opposition to a minority government in which they'll have no say in the governance of the country. Andrew Scheer & the Conservatives have systematically turned this country against the West by refusing to budge on issues on which the majority of Canadians disagree. If the West wants in, the West must compromise.

Time to admit, for instance, that climate change is real (not a party position, but one anecdotally espoused by the CPC). Time to admit that a Conservative-originated carbon-tax might be an okay idea. Time to admit that Trudeau might be a bad PM, but not a traitor, nor a criminal, nor whatever denigrating term they're using this week.

If these results continue for Conservatives, they'll once again be shut out of government for a decade. Maybe it's time to rethink what they've done since 2011?

[brucejoel99]

The (clap) Liberal (clap) Party (clap) of (clap) Canada (clap) is (clap) not (clap) "left"

Left (clap) And (clap) Right (clap) Are (clap) Meaningless (clap) Terms (clap) Whose (clap) Applicability (clap) And (clap) Tenants (clap) Change (clap) Based (clap) On (clap) Time (clap) Period, (clap) Geography, (clap) Culture, (clap) Context, (clap) And (clap) Perspective (clap) Of (clap) The (clap) Defined (clap) Selection.

maeks u think

Nevertheless, the LPC is not left-wing in any reasonable definition of the word.

I mean, sure, the Liberals are right-wing in the social "welfare state" sense. You don't hear much talk from them about 35-hour work weeks or expanding paid holidays, & they're certainly not Che Guevara fetishists or something. But in an Anglosphere & even G7 sense, they're undeniably left-wing. After all, name me one major party in any other industrialized nation that still even advocates for one-tier health care, let alone counts it as a cornerstone policy. I think that, at the end of the day, the Liberals are more of a consensus-based, pragmatic party than anything else. They tend to provide what the Canadian voter generally wants.

[brucejoel99]

I'm not saying the left wing would take all of them, that's why I labeled many tossup, but like there is no doubt vote splitting cost the left wing like a couple dozen seats ish.

***So.  Freaking.  What.***  Such is non-binary FPTP.  You win some, you lose some.

And y'know; whatever one's partisanship, that's what makes Canadian elections and election results so much more *interesting* than when it's pared down to a strict US-style binary.  Like, take a Lib-NDP marginal race like Davenport; if it were the US, the seat would be 80-90% Democratic.  *Bo-ring*...

Excitement and how interesting something is? Wut? This isn't some game. A safe and boring left wing hold sounds just fine, thank you very much.

Also, this benefitted the left wing in canada in almost no races whatsover, instead it prolly cost the left wing a couple dozen seats. So f%ck that, bring on the mundane.

You have to realize, though: in this forum, you're dealing with psephologists.  Election geeks who are into poll-by-poll statistics and election maps and whatnot: documents which express the electoral "soul" of the land, if you will.  We may have our political inclinations; but we're willing to suspend them on behalf of fascinated bystanderdom relative to maps like this (Toronto 2011: a wonderful patchwork of blue, red, and orange)
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-a0qWaCgupOk/Tib2R82-bRI/AAAAAAAAAGs/NAsWVtrTH2Q/s1600/toronto2011.png
It's kind of like opting for an electoral Route 66 over the electoral Interstate.  And if you'd rather take the Interstate even as a "leisurely" option, that's your problem.

I'm sorry, but this is a copy-pasta waiting to happen.

You have to realize, though: in this forum, you're dealing with psephologists.  Election geeks who are into poll-by-poll statistics and election maps and whatnot: documents which express the electoral "soul" of the land, if you will.  We may have our political inclinations; but we're willing to suspend them on behalf of fascinated bystanderdom relative to maps like this (Toronto 2011: a wonderful patchwork of blue, red, and orange)

[brucejoel99]

Did the Conservatives a plurality of the vote among any minority group?  Might have taken the Chinese Canadian vote, though the Liberals were also competitive with them.

Idk about the full results, but Canada's only 2 majority-Chinese ridings (Markham-Unionville, at 64%, & Richmond Centre, at 59%) both voted Conservative (49-38 & 49-29, respectively), so that might speak a little bit to their overall showing.