Canadian Election 2019

[politicallefty]

A couple of noteworthy things:

It looks like the Liberals will come first in Quebec in both seats and popular vote, albeit vary narrowly in both.

Ontario is actually interesting because it's not interesting. Hardly any change in the bottom line in terms of seats. Liberals and Conservatives both losing vote share (about 4% and 2% respectively). NDP vote share is actually up very slightly, but they're down 2 seats to 6 overall.

The thing about the popular vote is that there is no Liberal analogue to the sheer Tory dominance of Alberta and Saskatchewan (and the latter only recently lurching hard-right). It seems like in the past Quebec was the closest thing to do that most of the time.

[adma]

And re the Bloc in Quebec: my sense was correct in how today's Bloc has less "urban appeal" than it once did, i.e. strongholds like LSM, Hochelaga, Quebec eluding them...

The fact that in LSM, the NDP finished ahead of the Bloc says everything.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Don't take my word on anything. I'm just some 'Murican idiot. But I have some thoughts, having watched the coverage from 9:00 PM.

1. Jagmeets wife is a babe.
2. Every party is a loser tonight, accept maybe the Bloc. I didn't even know that was possible.
3. Identity politics makes for boring elections, and this election was the most boring Canadian election since like, what, 2006?
4. Scheer needs to go.
5. The People's Party is over.

[Oryxslayer]

Richmond hill flips Blue right near the finish line.

[Cokeland Saxton]

RIP Trudeau's majority

[DistingFlyer]

One curiosity - the drop in the Liberal vote (about 6.6%) is a very close match to the Liberal drop in 1972 (7%). Just about the only parallel between this election & that one, despite many predictions.

[brucejoel99]

One curiosity - the drop in the Liberal vote (about 6.6%) is a very close match to the Liberal drop in 1972 (7%). Just about the only parallel between this election & that one, despite many predictions.

The NDP holding the balance of power over a Trudeau-led Liberal government is a pretty big parallel.

[Storr]

Don't take my word on anything. I'm just some 'Murican idiot. But I have some thoughts, having watched the coverage from 9:00 PM.

1. Jagmeets wife is a babe.
2. Every party is a loser tonight, accept maybe the Bloc. I didn't even know that was possible.
3. Identity politics makes for boring elections, and this election was the most boring Canadian election since like, what, 2006?
4. Scheer needs to go.
5. The People's Party is over.

It was weird listening Jagmeet going on about all of the things he and the NDP are going to do complete with rousing chants and cheers from the crowd...despite losing a bunch of seats.

[Annatar]

In contrast to many recent elections, voter turnout seems to have fallen in Canada from around 68% last time to around 62-63% this time, Canada will probably be overtaken by America in turnout in 2020 where American presidential election turnout will probably be around at least 65%.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Don't take my word on anything. I'm just some 'Murican idiot. But I have some thoughts, having watched the coverage from 9:00 PM.

1. Jagmeets wife is a babe.
2. Every party is a loser tonight, accept maybe the Bloc. I didn't even know that was possible.
3. Identity politics makes for boring elections, and this election was the most boring Canadian election since like, what, 2006?
4. Scheer needs to go.
5. The People's Party is over.

It was weird listening Jagmeet going on about all of the things he and the NDP are going to do complete with rousing chants and cheers from the crowd...despite losing a bunch of seats.

I'm too busy staring at his wife

[trebor204]

Turnout is approaching 65%

Actual turnout is 60.71% with 94.42% of the polls

[super6646]

Just curious, does anyone have a breakdown of the PV per province in 2015? Because the Cons are REALLY running up the score in AB rn.

[politicallefty]

Just curious, does anyone have a breakdown of the PV per province in 2015? Because the Cons are REALLY running up the score in AB rn.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Canadian_federal_election#Results_by_province

Not just Alberta, but SK as well.

[super6646]

Just curious, does anyone have a breakdown of the PV per province in 2015? Because the Cons are REALLY running up the score in AB rn.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Canadian_federal_election#Results_by_province

Not just Alberta, but SK as well.

I was hoping to find specific #s in each province, but the % was always going to be better.

[adma]

So much for PPC Ford Nation: Renata Ford got 2.8% in Etobicoke North, barely above the Greens.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

What a gross election, ending with leaders who can’t even respect each other enough to keep their speeches succinct and let each other take their turns. Singh needs to tighten up his performance, Scheer needs a reality check around his viability as a national leader, and Trudeau needs to cut the airy bullsh**t and humble himself big time. I guess I’m happy enough to have a minority government that will need to rely on more progressive parties for support, but I’m still feeling pretty sour that these folks are the best we can come up with.

Every party failed, and every leader failed to learn a meaningful lesson from their failure. I can't explain this "bummed out" feeling, and it's especially strange because, on paper, I should be okay with how it shook out. Oh well.

Scheer really does have to go, though. He will never appeal to suburbanites in Ontario.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Wow, the left wing blew dozens of seats by splitting the vote, fdck them.

[trebor204]

Steven Fletcher (former Conservative cabinet minister) received only 4.3% of the vote in Charleswood - St James. This was one of the ridings that PPC targeted to get into the leaders debate.

[trebor204]

Best riding by Party
(Sorry about some of the French names)


BQ
Joliette   58.6
Montcalm   58.2
Bécancour--Nicolet--Saurel   56.8
Manicouagan   54.2
Repentigny   53.4
Rivière-du-Nord   52.3

Conservative:

Battle River--Crowfoot   85.4
Souris--Moose Mountain   84.4
Grande Prairie--Mackenzie   84.4
Lakeland   84.2
Bow River   83.9
Foothills   82.3
Yellowhead   82.1
Cypress Hills--Grasslands   81.2
Peace River--Westlock   80.7
Red Deer--Mountain View   80.1
Red Deer--Lacombe   79.8
Fort McMurray--Cold Lake   79.2
Medicine Hat--Cardston--Warner   79.1
Battlefords--Lloydminster   79
Carlton Trail--Eagle Creek   78.8
Sturgeon River--Parkland   77.5
Yorkton--Melville   76.5
Calgary Shepard   75.2
Calgary Midnapore   74.3
Sherwood Park--Fort Saskatchewan   73.5
Edmonton--Wetaskiwin   72.1
Moose Jaw--Lake Centre--Lanigan   71.3
Portage--Lisgar   71
Banff--Airdrie   71
Calgary Heritage   70.8
Calgary Signal Hill   70.4

Green:
Saanich--Gulf Islands   48.8
Nanaimo--Ladysmith   34.4
Fredericton   33.2
Victoria   28.9
Malpeque   26.5
Beauséjour   26.5
Kitchener Centre   25.8
Esquimalt--Saanich--Sooke   25.4
Guelph   25

Indepenent
Vancouver Granville   32.2
Markham--Stouffville   20.8
Sydney--Victoria   13.9

Liberal
Scarborough--Rouge Park   62.3
Scarborough--Guildwood   61.7
Etobicoke North   61.3
Humber River--Black Creek   61.3
Saint-Léonard--Saint-Michel   61.2

NDP
Vancouver East   52.2
Churchill--Keewatinook Aski   50.2
Vancouver Kingsway   48.8
Edmonton Strathcona   47.3
St. John's East   47.1
Hamilton Centre   46.5
Elmwood--Transcona   45.7

PPC
Beauce   28.4
Nipissing--Timiskaming   5.3
Charleswood--St. James--Assiniboia--Headingley   4.3

[Pericles]

Wow, the left wing blew dozens of seats by splitting the vote, fdck them.

Arguably, that always happens in Canada.

[rob in cal]

  Too lazy to do the math, but if the smaller parties vote share stayed the same, how much of a popular vote victory of the conservatives over the liberals would they have needed to win a plurality of the seats?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Wow, the left wing blew dozens of seats by splitting the vote, fdck them.

Arguably, that always happens in Canada.

That's depressing bro.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Lol so he actually pulled it off.

[DistingFlyer]

Another curious thing: the Tories are about to exceed 6 million votes. This will make only the third time this has ever happened (Liberals in 2015 with 6.9 million & Tories in 1984 with 6.3 million are the other two).

The overall shares of the vote aren't too far off from how things looked mid-campaign, as opposed to the last few days.

Strangely, the last time polls at the start of the campaign got the result right was 1988: they showed 43%-33%-22%, then the campaign itself got very volatile, but then things settled back again to 43%-32%-20% on election night.

[538Electoral]

Even though Trudeau won, He still lost a lot of his power tonight as he's reduced to a minority government.