2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread
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Author Topic: 2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread  (Read 166478 times)
Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
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« Reply #25 on: October 27, 2018, 03:16:40 PM »

Maybe Trump will blame Democratic collusion with China and the Ukraine if losses are worse than expected.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #26 on: October 27, 2018, 03:17:53 PM »

Hmm, closer than I would have expected, I get that it's an internal, but even a Walden win by low tweens to teens is really underwhelming.



Didn't the RNCC jump into this race last week? That suggests this internal might not be too far off the market.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #27 on: October 27, 2018, 03:18:11 PM »

Hmm, closer than I would have expected, I get that it's an internal, but even a Walden win by low tweens to teens is really underwhelming.



If Walden is under 55 it would be monumental
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #28 on: October 28, 2018, 02:05:55 AM »

New CBS/YouGov polls coming today for FL, AZ and IN.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #29 on: October 28, 2018, 02:24:08 AM »

New CBS/YouGov polls coming today for FL, AZ and IN.

Wow, I can't wait for more online polls...said no one.
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American2020
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« Reply #30 on: October 28, 2018, 03:34:21 AM »

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TheRocketRaccoon
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« Reply #31 on: October 28, 2018, 08:23:50 AM »

Enthusiasm gap in Ohio:

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #32 on: October 28, 2018, 08:24:24 AM »

NY-24: Siena, Oct. 18-22, 500 LV

Katko (R,inc): 53
Balter (D): 39
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Politician
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« Reply #33 on: October 28, 2018, 08:25:13 AM »

Enthusiasm gap in Ohio:


SN2903 told me Republicans were matching Democrats in turnout, though.
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Hindsight was 2020
Hindsight is 2020
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« Reply #34 on: October 28, 2018, 09:37:09 AM »

Yougov dropped: FL-tied, AZ: Sinema 3+, IN: Braun 3+ https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/tight-contests-mark-critical-senate-races-cbs-news-battleground-tracker-poll/?__twitter_impression=true
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Pollster
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« Reply #35 on: October 28, 2018, 10:48:52 AM »


All of these numbers seem to be slightly to the right of where other public polls have had these races.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #36 on: October 28, 2018, 11:03:06 AM »


538 has YouGov with a house effect of R+2.4.  So the adjusted values they're using are Braun+0.6, Nelson+2.4, and Sinema+5.4, which seem closer to CW.
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Wisconsin SC Race 2019
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« Reply #37 on: October 28, 2018, 12:06:36 PM »


In line with a National margin of D+8, as Florida voted 9 points to the right of the nation in 2016 House races.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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« Reply #38 on: October 28, 2018, 12:10:25 PM »



And this is a poll with Trump +9 approval LOL
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Gass3268
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« Reply #39 on: October 28, 2018, 12:14:13 PM »



And this is a poll with Trump +9 approval LOL

Haha
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #40 on: October 28, 2018, 12:22:12 PM »

Strategic Research Associates has put out some strange results.  This recent article describes them as a market research company in Spokane, with these details:

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NOVA Green
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« Reply #41 on: October 28, 2018, 01:26:25 PM »

Hmm, closer than I would have expected, I get that it's an internal, but even a Walden win by low tweens to teens is really underwhelming.



Didn't the RNCC jump into this race last week? That suggests this internal might not be too far off the market.

It's not particularly surprising that this race will be much closer than many have expected.

Walden's support for repealing ACA was not especially popular among many of his constituents within the district that contains a much higher population of Senior Citizens than anywhere else within Oregon.

Additionally being associated with Trump's Trade War policies that are hitting Grain Farmers along the Columbia River Gorge portion of the district, are likely taking a hit on traditional 'Pub support levels in that part of the district, and created an opening for McLeod-Skinner to attack him on an issue of major concern to farmers and agricultural communities out here.

Also McLeod-Skinner is not a big fan of increased Gun Control, which likely plays well in a fairly Socially Libertarian district.

The fastest growing population centers of the District are in Jackson County and Deschutes County, where you have a decent # of educated Middle-Aged Voters, that in some places swung hard Romney > HRC between '12 and '16, including multiple precincts in East Medford and parts of Bend.

If 'Pubs are spending $$$ here, they are obviously seeing something going on in their own polling, despite by all standards this should be considered in general a "Safe Republican" district in normal election cycles.

https://www.opb.org/news/article/jamie-mcleod-skinner-oregon-house-democrat-candidate-greg-walden/
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #42 on: October 28, 2018, 06:16:54 PM »

Huh, why did Republicans gain 0.1 in the 538 GCB tracker without any new poll being added? Huh
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Gustaf
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« Reply #43 on: October 28, 2018, 07:27:16 PM »

Huh, why did Republicans gain 0.1 in the 538 GCB tracker without any new poll being added? Huh

I'd guess decreased weight of older polls as time progresses?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #44 on: October 28, 2018, 07:46:49 PM »

Huh, why did Republicans gain 0.1 in the 538 GCB tracker without any new poll being added? Huh

I'd guess decreased weight of older polls as time progresses?

Could be, or maybe they've corrected a previously erroneous entry.
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American2020
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« Reply #45 on: October 28, 2018, 07:58:01 PM »

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Gass3268
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« Reply #46 on: October 28, 2018, 08:03:56 PM »



Dems gained 1 point from last week.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #47 on: October 28, 2018, 08:05:19 PM »



Dems gained 1 point from last week.
Different poll this is -2 for dems
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Person Man
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« Reply #48 on: October 28, 2018, 08:12:23 PM »



Dems gained 1 point from last week.
Different poll this is -2 for dems

Last week it was D+8.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #49 on: October 28, 2018, 08:29:11 PM »



Dems gained 1 point from last week.
Different poll this is -2 for dems

Last week it was D+8.

There was another Harris Poll. That's confusing.
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