2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[KingSweden]

Considering how little polling we've gotten out of Indiana, IN-05 +5 Donnelly  and IN-09 -9 Donnelly is not what I was expecting.

Why what did you expect?

[Ebsy]

Interested to know how Change Research's patented Bias Correct technology has avoided the typical obstacles to polling in Indiana.

[Gass3268]

Considering how little polling we've gotten out of Indiana, IN-05 +5 Donnelly  and IN-09 -9 Donnelly is not what I was expecting.

Why what did you expect?

A Democrat cracking those Indy suburbs is like a Democrat cracking the Cincinnati or Milwaukee suburbs, I'll believe it when I see it. Also I figured he'd be closer in IN-09. Would be interested to see a IN-02 poll.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Considering how little polling we've gotten out of Indiana, IN-05 +5 Donnelly  and IN-09 -9 Donnelly is not what I was expecting.

Why what did you expect?

A Democrat cracking those Indy suburbs is like a Democrat cracking the Cincinnati or Milwaukee suburbs, I'll believe it when I see it. Also I figured he'd be closer in IN-09. Would be interested to see a IN-02 poll.

Donnelly aint exciting to the college kids in Indiana 9th, so the dem base won't be fired up as much there, kinda like Manchin in Monongalia, maybe a little better though. Oh, he's definitely leading in Indiana 2nd CD, it's his home turf.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Considering how little polling we've gotten out of Indiana, IN-05 +5 Donnelly  and IN-09 -9 Donnelly is not what I was expecting.

It is following the trend. IN-05 is Indianapolis suburbs, trended toward Clinton. IN-09 is southern Indiana, trended to Trump.

These polls could well be a bit off in particular as far as the magnitude of the difference goes, but it is not quite so surprising/implausible for Dems to be doing better in IN-05. Just look at 2016 to see that.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Considering how little polling we've gotten out of Indiana, IN-05 +5 Donnelly  and IN-09 -9 Donnelly is not what I was expecting.

Why what did you expect?

A Democrat cracking those Indy suburbs is like a Democrat cracking the Cincinnati or Milwaukee suburbs, I'll believe it when I see it. Also I figured he'd be closer in IN-09. Would be interested to see a IN-02 poll.

Donnelly aint exciting to the college kids in Indiana 9th, so the dem base won't be fired up as much there, kinda like Manchin in Monongalia, maybe a little better though. Oh, he's definitely leading in Indiana 2nd CD, it's his home turf.

College kids don't vote in midterms. Even in TX where there is Betomania, they are not voting all that much.

[Gass3268]

Considering how little polling we've gotten out of Indiana, IN-05 +5 Donnelly  and IN-09 -9 Donnelly is not what I was expecting.

Why what did you expect?

A Democrat cracking those Indy suburbs is like a Democrat cracking the Cincinnati or Milwaukee suburbs, I'll believe it when I see it. Also I figured he'd be closer in IN-09. Would be interested to see a IN-02 poll.

Donnelly aint exciting to the college kids in Indiana 9th, so the dem base won't be fired up as much there, kinda like Manchin in Monongalia, maybe a little better though. Oh, he's definitely leading in Indiana 2nd CD, it's his home turf.

College kids don't vote in midterms. Even in TX where there is Betomania, they are not voting all that much.

College kids vote at better rates than their peers who aren't going to school.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

College kids vote at better rates than their peers who aren't going to school.

True. Which isn't to say that they vote in midterms (in reasonable #s, of course small #s do).

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Considering how little polling we've gotten out of Indiana, IN-05 +5 Donnelly  and IN-09 -9 Donnelly is not what I was expecting.

It is following the trend. IN-05 is Indianapolis suburbs, trended toward Clinton. IN-09 is southern Indiana, trended to Trump.

These polls could well be a bit off in particular as far as the magnitude of the difference goes, but it is not quite so surprising/implausible for Dems to be doing better in IN-05. Just look at 2016 to see that.

Yeah the 2016 trend map explains it all:
Spoilers, that dark red county isn’t Marion (Indianapolis), it’s Hamilton (Carmel/Fishers)

Plus IN-05 includes some northern Indianapolis suburbs within Marion County itself.

Obama got 46.6% there in 2008. Given the general trend towards Dems in suburbs and away from Dems in rural areas, it seems plausible that a Dem with an Obama '08-esque coalition modified by the 2016 trends who wins IN statewide would win IN-05.

IN-05 has a lot of similarities to OH-12, it is sort of a shame that Dems haven't put more effort there. But maybe it could be ripe in 2020.

[psychprofessor]

IA-04 (n=631) Change Research

J.D. Scholten @Scholten4Iowa (D) 44
Steve King (R) 45

Movement: 26 points to D (was Trump+27)

Trump won IA-04 by 27 points in 2016; King won by 23 points.

This is the one I really want to see flip...but I don't think it's this close.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Considering how little polling we've gotten out of Indiana, IN-05 +5 Donnelly  and IN-09 -9 Donnelly is not what I was expecting.

Bodes very well for him.

[wbrocks67]

Considering how little polling we've gotten out of Indiana, IN-05 +5 Donnelly  and IN-09 -9 Donnelly is not what I was expecting.

Why what did you expect?

A Democrat cracking those Indy suburbs is like a Democrat cracking the Cincinnati or Milwaukee suburbs, I'll believe it when I see it. Also I figured he'd be closer in IN-09. Would be interested to see a IN-02 poll.

Donnelly aint exciting to the college kids in Indiana 9th, so the dem base won't be fired up as much there, kinda like Manchin in Monongalia, maybe a little better though. Oh, he's definitely leading in Indiana 2nd CD, it's his home turf.

College kids don't vote in midterms. Even in TX where there is Betomania, they are not voting all that much.

This isn't a normal midterm year. And I think any rational person wouldn't base young turnout solely on EV so far, considering I'd think young people are more likely to vote on ED than EV.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/poll-sinema-leads-mcsally-arizona-senate-race-n925876

AZ GCB: D+1 (47-46)

[TheRocketRaccoon]

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1057229426277146624

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1057229892427964416?s=19

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1057229426277146624

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1057229892427964416?s=19

Still remember when Atlas panicked about this race after Siena showed Delagao down 40-45.

BuT MuH RaP CaREer.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1057229426277146624

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1057229892427964416?s=19

NUT

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1057229426277146624

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1057229892427964416?s=19

Looks like we’ll get Rep. Delgado.

[Mr. Illini]

CO-03: Tipton (R) 53 | Mitsch (D) 38
FL-18: Mast (R) 53 | Baer (D) 44 (Gillum and Nelson are running ahead of Baer)
IA-04: King (R) 45 | Scholten (D) 44 (King favorables at -10, Trump at +5)
IL-16: Kinzinger (R) 55 | Dady 41 (They have Pritzker beating Ruaner here, lol)
IN-05: Brooks (R) 50 | Thornton 44 (Donnelly up 5 here, Trump approval -1)
IN-09: Hollingsworth (R) 52 | Watson 45 (Donelly down 9 here, Trump approval +10)
KS-02: Watkins (R) 45 | Davis (D) 44 (Gov is tied)
MI-01: Bergman (R) 54 | Morgan 42 (Whitmer trails by just 3 points)
MI-06: Upton (R) 46 | Longjohn 43 (Longjohn is running several points ahead of Stabenow in the district, but several points behind Whitmer)
NY-01: Zeldin (R) 52 | Gershon (D) 37
OH-02: Wenstrup (R) 52 | Schiller (D) 39 (Brown and Cordray tied with their R opponents here)
WI-06: Grothman (R) 50 | Kohl 48 (Sen and Gov races within two here)

I want it to be real. Any idea how good Change actually is? 538 doesn't even rate them, which doesn't bode well...

[Gass3268]

CO-03: Tipton (R) 53 | Mitsch (D) 38
FL-18: Mast (R) 53 | Baer (D) 44 (Gillum and Nelson are running ahead of Baer)
IA-04: King (R) 45 | Scholten (D) 44 (King favorables at -10, Trump at +5)
IL-16: Kinzinger (R) 55 | Dady 41 (They have Pritzker beating Ruaner here, lol)
IN-05: Brooks (R) 50 | Thornton 44 (Donnelly up 5 here, Trump approval -1)
IN-09: Hollingsworth (R) 52 | Watson 45 (Donelly down 9 here, Trump approval +10)
KS-02: Watkins (R) 45 | Davis (D) 44 (Gov is tied)
MI-01: Bergman (R) 54 | Morgan 42 (Whitmer trails by just 3 points)
MI-06: Upton (R) 46 | Longjohn 43 (Longjohn is running several points ahead of Stabenow in the district, but several points behind Whitmer)
NY-01: Zeldin (R) 52 | Gershon (D) 37
OH-02: Wenstrup (R) 52 | Schiller (D) 39 (Brown and Cordray tied with their R opponents here)
WI-06: Grothman (R) 50 | Kohl 48 (Sen and Gov races within two here)

I want it to be real. Any idea how good Change actually is? 538 doesn't even rate them, which doesn't bode well...

They gave them a C+, with a R+0.8 bias.

[ON Progressive]

CO-03: Tipton (R) 53 | Mitsch (D) 38
FL-18: Mast (R) 53 | Baer (D) 44 (Gillum and Nelson are running ahead of Baer)
IA-04: King (R) 45 | Scholten (D) 44 (King favorables at -10, Trump at +5)
IL-16: Kinzinger (R) 55 | Dady 41 (They have Pritzker beating Ruaner here, lol)
IN-05: Brooks (R) 50 | Thornton 44 (Donnelly up 5 here, Trump approval -1)
IN-09: Hollingsworth (R) 52 | Watson 45 (Donelly down 9 here, Trump approval +10)
KS-02: Watkins (R) 45 | Davis (D) 44 (Gov is tied)
MI-01: Bergman (R) 54 | Morgan 42 (Whitmer trails by just 3 points)
MI-06: Upton (R) 46 | Longjohn 43 (Longjohn is running several points ahead of Stabenow in the district, but several points behind Whitmer)
NY-01: Zeldin (R) 52 | Gershon (D) 37
OH-02: Wenstrup (R) 52 | Schiller (D) 39 (Brown and Cordray tied with their R opponents here)
WI-06: Grothman (R) 50 | Kohl 48 (Sen and Gov races within two here)

I want it to be real. Any idea how good Change actually is? 538 doesn't even rate them, which doesn't bode well...

Change Research has botched every race they’ve ever polled, so I would ignore their online-only junk.

[GeorgiaModerate]

CO-03: Tipton (R) 53 | Mitsch (D) 38
FL-18: Mast (R) 53 | Baer (D) 44 (Gillum and Nelson are running ahead of Baer)
IA-04: King (R) 45 | Scholten (D) 44 (King favorables at -10, Trump at +5)
IL-16: Kinzinger (R) 55 | Dady 41 (They have Pritzker beating Ruaner here, lol)
IN-05: Brooks (R) 50 | Thornton 44 (Donnelly up 5 here, Trump approval -1)
IN-09: Hollingsworth (R) 52 | Watson 45 (Donelly down 9 here, Trump approval +10)
KS-02: Watkins (R) 45 | Davis (D) 44 (Gov is tied)
MI-01: Bergman (R) 54 | Morgan 42 (Whitmer trails by just 3 points)
MI-06: Upton (R) 46 | Longjohn 43 (Longjohn is running several points ahead of Stabenow in the district, but several points behind Whitmer)
NY-01: Zeldin (R) 52 | Gershon (D) 37
OH-02: Wenstrup (R) 52 | Schiller (D) 39 (Brown and Cordray tied with their R opponents here)
WI-06: Grothman (R) 50 | Kohl 48 (Sen and Gov races within two here)

I want it to be real. Any idea how good Change actually is? 538 doesn't even rate them, which doesn't bode well...

You have to click the "Show More Pollsters" button at the bottom of the page to see the ones with fewer polls in their ratings.  As Gass pointed out, they have a C+ rating with an R+0.8 bias.  IMO even that's a bit generous; they've been all over the place in the past.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Gravis_Montana_October_27_2018.pdf

MT-AL Gravis: Williams (D-inc) 48, Gianforte (R-inc) 48

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Gravis_Montana_October_27_2018.pdf

MT-AL Gravis: Williams (D-inc) 48, Gianforte (R-inc) 48

Tester+3 in that poll, and Trump with 58/39 approval, so this looks pretty plausible.

[Oryxslayer]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Gravis_Montana_October_27_2018.pdf

MT-AL Gravis: Williams (D-inc) 48, Gianforte (R-inc) 48

Tester+3 in that poll, and Trump with 58/39 approval, so this looks pretty plausible.

> GRAVIS

[TheRocketRaccoon]

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=6eb82edf-81cd-4528-ae67-3d8371e94eaf

CA-50 SUSA: Hunter (R-inc) 48, Campa-Najjar (D) 45