2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[S019]

According to the Denver Post, Sen. Cory Gardner (R-CO) raised $2 million

https://www.denverpost.com/2019/04/11/cory-gardner-2020-mike-johnston/

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Peters is not comparable to Bill Nelson. He's managed to raise almost $2M in the first quarter - that indicates that he's taking this race seriously. Nelson slept until August/September 2018 because he thought Scott would be weak like Harris or Mack IV. Peters may be boring/anonymous, but you don't become the only Democrat in an twelve-person freshman Senate class without real political skills.

Michigan is also a lot kinder to Democrats than Florida, considering that there are NO statewide elected Republicans there (out of five positions), in comparison to Florida, where there is only one statewide Democrat (out of six). Agree that he's probably the second-most vulnerable Senate Democrat after Jones, but there is a HUGE gap between the two. Bear in mind that Republicans haven't won a Senate race in Michigan since the 1994 R wave, and that the Senator who won that year lost to Stabenow in 2000.

Bill Nelson also raised 2 Million in Q1, and continued raising massive amounts (in addition to outside PACS). He had over 3.6 million on hand after Q1. Just saying, don't undervalue John James.

James is a B-lister and Peters [unlike Stabenow] isn’t asleep at the wheel; this race is is Likely D at worst.

[Brittain33]

According to the Denver Post, Sen. Cory Gardner (R-CO) raised $2 million

https://www.denverpost.com/2019/04/11/cory-gardner-2020-mike-johnston/

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Peters is not comparable to Bill Nelson. He's managed to raise almost $2M in the first quarter - that indicates that he's taking this race seriously. Nelson slept until August/September 2018 because he thought Scott would be weak like Harris or Mack IV. Peters may be boring/anonymous, but you don't become the only Democrat in an twelve-person freshman Senate class without real political skills.

Michigan is also a lot kinder to Democrats than Florida, considering that there are NO statewide elected Republicans there (out of five positions), in comparison to Florida, where there is only one statewide Democrat (out of six). Agree that he's probably the second-most vulnerable Senate Democrat after Jones, but there is a HUGE gap between the two. Bear in mind that Republicans haven't won a Senate race in Michigan since the 1994 R wave, and that the Senator who won that year lost to Stabenow in 2000.

Bill Nelson also raised 2 Million in Q1, and continued raising massive amounts (in addition to outside PACS). He had over 3.6 million on hand after Q1. Just saying, don't undervalue John James.

James is a B-lister and Peters [unlike Stabenow] isn’t asleep at the wheel; this race is is Likely D at worst.

Sorry but no. We don't know what kind of a year 2020 will be. Michigan is clearly swinging away from us and assuming a close election, this could be quite competitive

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Peters is not comparable to Bill Nelson. He's managed to raise almost $2M in the first quarter - that indicates that he's taking this race seriously. Nelson slept until August/September 2018 because he thought Scott would be weak like Harris or Mack IV. Peters may be boring/anonymous, but you don't become the only Democrat in an twelve-person freshman Senate class without real political skills.

Michigan is also a lot kinder to Democrats than Florida, considering that there are NO statewide elected Republicans there (out of five positions), in comparison to Florida, where there is only one statewide Democrat (out of six). Agree that he's probably the second-most vulnerable Senate Democrat after Jones, but there is a HUGE gap between the two. Bear in mind that Republicans haven't won a Senate race in Michigan since the 1994 R wave, and that the Senator who won that year lost to Stabenow in 2000.

Bill Nelson also raised 2 Million in Q1, and continued raising massive amounts (in addition to outside PACS). He had over 3.6 million on hand after Q1. Just saying, don't undervalue John James.

James is a B-lister and Peters [unlike Stabenow] isn’t asleep at the wheel; this race is is Likely D at worst.

Sorry but no. We don't know what kind of a year 2020 will be. Michigan is clearly swinging away from us and assuming a close election, this could be quite competitive

Against John James?  Even in a neutral year, this would be Likely D.  It’d take a much stronger opponent to have a real shot against Peters given that the latter is already taking the race seriously. 

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Peters is not comparable to Bill Nelson. He's managed to raise almost $2M in the first quarter - that indicates that he's taking this race seriously. Nelson slept until August/September 2018 because he thought Scott would be weak like Harris or Mack IV. Peters may be boring/anonymous, but you don't become the only Democrat in an twelve-person freshman Senate class without real political skills.

Michigan is also a lot kinder to Democrats than Florida, considering that there are NO statewide elected Republicans there (out of five positions), in comparison to Florida, where there is only one statewide Democrat (out of six). Agree that he's probably the second-most vulnerable Senate Democrat after Jones, but there is a HUGE gap between the two. Bear in mind that Republicans haven't won a Senate race in Michigan since the 1994 R wave, and that the Senator who won that year lost to Stabenow in 2000.

Bill Nelson also raised 2 Million in Q1, and continued raising massive amounts (in addition to outside PACS). He had over 3.6 million on hand after Q1. Just saying, don't undervalue John James.

James is a B-lister and Peters [unlike Stabenow] isn’t asleep at the wheel; this race is is Likely D at worst.

Sorry but no. We don't know what kind of a year 2020 will be. Michigan is clearly swinging away from us and assuming a close election, this could be quite competitive

I think Lean D is fair until we see how the race unfolds further (polling, who announces, national environment, etc.). There bizarrely seems to be two camps on Atlas regarding MI-Sen: one that thinks Peters is safe and one that thinks he's the next Bill Nelson/incredibly weak incumbent who is destined to lose

I mean, Lean D makes sense if you think Trump will lose(which is a big possibility) but I just can't see Peters winning and Trump Winning MI at the same time.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Peters is not comparable to Bill Nelson. He's managed to raise almost $2M in the first quarter - that indicates that he's taking this race seriously. Nelson slept until August/September 2018 because he thought Scott would be weak like Harris or Mack IV. Peters may be boring/anonymous, but you don't become the only Democrat in an twelve-person freshman Senate class without real political skills.

Michigan is also a lot kinder to Democrats than Florida, considering that there are NO statewide elected Republicans there (out of five positions), in comparison to Florida, where there is only one statewide Democrat (out of six). Agree that he's probably the second-most vulnerable Senate Democrat after Jones, but there is a HUGE gap between the two. Bear in mind that Republicans haven't won a Senate race in Michigan since the 1994 R wave, and that the Senator who won that year lost to Stabenow in 2000.

Bill Nelson also raised 2 Million in Q1, and continued raising massive amounts (in addition to outside PACS). He had over 3.6 million on hand after Q1. Just saying, don't undervalue John James.

James is a B-lister and Peters [unlike Stabenow] isn’t asleep at the wheel; this race is is Likely D at worst.

Sorry but no. We don't know what kind of a year 2020 will be. Michigan is clearly swinging away from us and assuming a close election, this could be quite competitive

I think Lean D is fair until we see how the race unfolds further (polling, who announces, national environment, etc.). There bizarrely seems to be two camps on Atlas regarding MI-Sen: one that thinks Peters is safe and one that thinks he's the next Bill Nelson/incredibly weak incumbent who is destined to lose

I mean, Lean D makes sense if you think Trump will lose(which is a big possibility) but I just can't see Peters winning and Trump Winning MI at the same time.

If it’s 2016-esque close I can easily see that happening.

I don't think Michigan will even be 2016 close unless we have a weak Democratic nominee (which is possible, but I don't think Sanders will be the nominee).  Pennsylvania was a fluke; I think we'll be good there against Trump.  Michigan depends on who we nominate, but if we lose Michigan then we were never going to win.  Minnesota and Wisconsin worry me more than Michigan and Pennsylvania tbh.  Florida and ME-2 are probably fool's gold though (certainly not tipping point states).

[S019]

Peters is not comparable to Bill Nelson. He's managed to raise almost $2M in the first quarter - that indicates that he's taking this race seriously. Nelson slept until August/September 2018 because he thought Scott would be weak like Harris or Mack IV. Peters may be boring/anonymous, but you don't become the only Democrat in an twelve-person freshman Senate class without real political skills.

Michigan is also a lot kinder to Democrats than Florida, considering that there are NO statewide elected Republicans there (out of five positions), in comparison to Florida, where there is only one statewide Democrat (out of six). Agree that he's probably the second-most vulnerable Senate Democrat after Jones, but there is a HUGE gap between the two. Bear in mind that Republicans haven't won a Senate race in Michigan since the 1994 R wave, and that the Senator who won that year lost to Stabenow in 2000.

Bill Nelson also raised 2 Million in Q1, and continued raising massive amounts (in addition to outside PACS). He had over 3.6 million on hand after Q1. Just saying, don't undervalue John James.

James is a B-lister and Peters [unlike Stabenow] isn’t asleep at the wheel; this race is is Likely D at worst.

Sorry but no. We don't know what kind of a year 2020 will be. Michigan is clearly swinging away from us and assuming a close election, this could be quite competitive

I think Lean D is fair until we see how the race unfolds further (polling, who announces, national environment, etc.). There bizarrely seems to be two camps on Atlas regarding MI-Sen: one that thinks Peters is safe and one that thinks he's the next Bill Nelson/incredibly weak incumbent who is destined to lose

I mean, Lean D makes sense if you think Trump will lose(which is a big possibility) but I just can't see Peters winning and Trump Winning MI at the same time.

If it’s 2016-esque close I can easily see that happening.

I don't think Michigan will even be 2016 close unless we have a weak Democratic nominee (which is possible, but I don't think Sanders will be the nominee).  Pennsylvania was a fluke; I think we'll be good there against Trump.  Michigan depends on who we nominate, but if we lose Michigan then we were never going to win.  Minnesota and Wisconsin worry me more than Michigan and Pennsylvania tbh.  Florida and ME-2 are probably fool's gold though (certainly not tipping point states).

MN is basically fools gold, the close race there is because Dems thought it was Safe D and just did not turn out

This reminds me of Charlie Cook's #analysis that MN is more competitive than MI and NH

NH, MI, and PA are Tossup

MN is Lean D

[GeorgiaModerate]

Peters is not comparable to Bill Nelson. He's managed to raise almost $2M in the first quarter - that indicates that he's taking this race seriously. Nelson slept until August/September 2018 because he thought Scott would be weak like Harris or Mack IV. Peters may be boring/anonymous, but you don't become the only Democrat in an twelve-person freshman Senate class without real political skills.

Michigan is also a lot kinder to Democrats than Florida, considering that there are NO statewide elected Republicans there (out of five positions), in comparison to Florida, where there is only one statewide Democrat (out of six). Agree that he's probably the second-most vulnerable Senate Democrat after Jones, but there is a HUGE gap between the two. Bear in mind that Republicans haven't won a Senate race in Michigan since the 1994 R wave, and that the Senator who won that year lost to Stabenow in 2000.

Bill Nelson also raised 2 Million in Q1, and continued raising massive amounts (in addition to outside PACS). He had over 3.6 million on hand after Q1. Just saying, don't undervalue John James.

James is a B-lister and Peters [unlike Stabenow] isn’t asleep at the wheel; this race is is Likely D at worst.

Sorry but no. We don't know what kind of a year 2020 will be. Michigan is clearly swinging away from us and assuming a close election, this could be quite competitive

I think Lean D is fair until we see how the race unfolds further (polling, who announces, national environment, etc.). There bizarrely seems to be two camps on Atlas regarding MI-Sen: one that thinks Peters is safe and one that thinks he's the next Bill Nelson/incredibly weak incumbent who is destined to lose

I mean, Lean D makes sense if you think Trump will lose(which is a big possibility) but I just can't see Peters winning and Trump Winning MI at the same time.

If it’s 2016-esque close I can easily see that happening.

I don't think Michigan will even be 2016 close unless we have a weak Democratic nominee (which is possible, but I don't think Sanders will be the nominee).  Pennsylvania was a fluke; I think we'll be good there against Trump.  Michigan depends on who we nominate, but if we lose Michigan then we were never going to win.  Minnesota and Wisconsin worry me more than Michigan and Pennsylvania tbh.  Florida and ME-2 are probably fool's gold though (certainly not tipping point states).

MN is basically fools gold, the close race there is because Dems thought it was Safe D and just did not turn out

This reminds me of Charlie Cook's #analysis that MN is more competitive than MI and NH

NH, MI, and PA are Tossup

MN is Lean D

Trump approval ratings in NH:

WMUR, Feb 13: 41/57
Emerson, Feb 22: 43/52
Morning Consult, March 1: 42/55
ARG, March 28: 34/58

New Hampshire is not a tossup.

[S019]

Peters is not comparable to Bill Nelson. He's managed to raise almost $2M in the first quarter - that indicates that he's taking this race seriously. Nelson slept until August/September 2018 because he thought Scott would be weak like Harris or Mack IV. Peters may be boring/anonymous, but you don't become the only Democrat in an twelve-person freshman Senate class without real political skills.

Michigan is also a lot kinder to Democrats than Florida, considering that there are NO statewide elected Republicans there (out of five positions), in comparison to Florida, where there is only one statewide Democrat (out of six). Agree that he's probably the second-most vulnerable Senate Democrat after Jones, but there is a HUGE gap between the two. Bear in mind that Republicans haven't won a Senate race in Michigan since the 1994 R wave, and that the Senator who won that year lost to Stabenow in 2000.

Bill Nelson also raised 2 Million in Q1, and continued raising massive amounts (in addition to outside PACS). He had over 3.6 million on hand after Q1. Just saying, don't undervalue John James.

James is a B-lister and Peters [unlike Stabenow] isn’t asleep at the wheel; this race is is Likely D at worst.

Sorry but no. We don't know what kind of a year 2020 will be. Michigan is clearly swinging away from us and assuming a close election, this could be quite competitive

I think Lean D is fair until we see how the race unfolds further (polling, who announces, national environment, etc.). There bizarrely seems to be two camps on Atlas regarding MI-Sen: one that thinks Peters is safe and one that thinks he's the next Bill Nelson/incredibly weak incumbent who is destined to lose

I mean, Lean D makes sense if you think Trump will lose(which is a big possibility) but I just can't see Peters winning and Trump Winning MI at the same time.

If it’s 2016-esque close I can easily see that happening.

I don't think Michigan will even be 2016 close unless we have a weak Democratic nominee (which is possible, but I don't think Sanders will be the nominee).  Pennsylvania was a fluke; I think we'll be good there against Trump.  Michigan depends on who we nominate, but if we lose Michigan then we were never going to win.  Minnesota and Wisconsin worry me more than Michigan and Pennsylvania tbh.  Florida and ME-2 are probably fool's gold though (certainly not tipping point states).

MN is basically fools gold, the close race there is because Dems thought it was Safe D and just did not turn out

This reminds me of Charlie Cook's #analysis that MN is more competitive than MI and NH

NH, MI, and PA are Tossup

MN is Lean D

Trump approval ratings in NH:

WMUR, Feb 13: 41/57
Emerson, Feb 22: 43/52
Morning Consult, March 1: 42/55
ARG, March 28: 34/58

New Hampshire is not a tossup.

43-53 is his actual approval

That is close to several of those polls

[MT Treasurer]

Kathleen Williams (D) is taking another shot at MT-AL, should be an interesting race between her and Winter.

[MT Treasurer]

Kathleen Williams (D) is taking another shot at MT-AL, should be an interesting race between her and Winter.

I'm not seeing this unless it's a blowout Trump loss.   Could be an audition for a potential MT-02 in 2022?  Given the redistricting commission in the state constitution, it's basically assured to be an all Western MT district if it happens, which would be a pretty easy D pickup in a Trump midterm and will probably only get more Dem going forward given the Colorado-like trends in the Western MT "cities."

Generally agree, but not sure how two consecutive losses would help Williams in a 2022 D primary. Winter is also from the more Democratic hypothetical district, so my guess is if he finishes a close second in 2020, he’ll probably be courted again in 2022. Somewhat interesting (and maybe a little surprising) that both Democrats decided to run for House rather than governor or Senator, two races where the MTDP still lacks declared candidates. There’s also the possibility of the House seat opening up if Gianforte jumps into the governor's race, so I guess a lot of calculations are being made right now depending on Gianforte's most likely next moves. If I had to rank the four most likely Republican candidates at the top of the ticket from most difficult to easiest to beat, it would be Fox > Daines > Gianforte > Rosendale (probably the frontrunner if he runs for an open House seat). Another reason for not running for MT-SEN may be that no one wants to step up to challenge Daines and then step aside once Bullock loses IA. If Bullock runs for SEN and Cooney runs for GOV, the D primaries for SEN/GOV will be a snoozefest, although Cooney is clearly the more beatable candidate in both the primary and the general.

[S019]

NY-15: Ruben Diaz Sr. iN

https://patch.com/new-york/new-york-city/ruben-diaz-sr-run-congress-saying-hes-opposite-aoc

I really wanted him to run and would make a great Representative, he just has to get through the primary, could we have a HI-01 redux, where the most conservative candidate wins the primary

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

NY-15: Ruben Diaz Sr. iN

https://patch.com/new-york/new-york-city/ruben-diaz-sr-run-congress-saying-hes-opposite-aoc

I really wanted him to run and would make a great Representative, he just has to get through the primary, could we have a HI-01 redux, where the most conservative candidate wins the primary

Gross

[S019]

NY-15: Ruben Diaz Sr. iN

https://patch.com/new-york/new-york-city/ruben-diaz-sr-run-congress-saying-hes-opposite-aoc

I really wanted him to run and would make a great Representative, he just has to get through the primary, could we have a HI-01 redux, where the most conservative candidate wins the primary

Gross

Please explain why, I think he'd be a great Congressman

[Zaybay]

NY-15: Ruben Diaz Sr. iN

https://patch.com/new-york/new-york-city/ruben-diaz-sr-run-congress-saying-hes-opposite-aoc

I really wanted him to run and would make a great Representative, he just has to get through the primary, could we have a HI-01 redux, where the most conservative candidate wins the primary

Gross

Please explain why, I think he'd be a great Congressman

The article you yourself linked has this as its sub-header:

The city councilman who drew fire for his inflammatory remarks about LGBT people says he will run to replace Rep. Jose Serrano.

[wesmoorenerd]

NY-15: Ruben Diaz Sr. iN

https://patch.com/new-york/new-york-city/ruben-diaz-sr-run-congress-saying-hes-opposite-aoc

I really wanted him to run and would make a great Representative, he just has to get through the primary, could we have a HI-01 redux, where the most conservative candidate wins the primary

Gross

Please explain why, I think he'd be a great Congressman

The article you yourself linked has this as its sub-header:

The city councilman who drew fire for his inflammatory remarks about LGBT people says he will run to replace Rep. Jose Serrano.

Yeah, Diaz is one of the worst Democrats in America. Let's pray that the people of NY-15 see through this charlatan's facade.

[LabourJersey]

Rep. Jeff Van Drew (D-NJ) raised only $121K in the first quarter...a fraction of what all other NJ Democratic freshmen raised.

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/van-drew-struggles-to-raise-money/

Honestly I'm shocked by how weak this guy is turning out to be. He only won his primary with 57% against three nobodies, he won only 53% against a white supremacist with zero money and staff, and now he's already lagging behind.

I think he's still the best candidate the Democrats have in NJ-02 (my worry is that his part of South Jersey is drifting away from the Democrats), but I don't feel too confident.

[GeorgiaModerate]

GA-06 and GA-07 1Q fundraising (buried in https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/the-jolt-you-can-beat-something-with-nothing-tom-price-now-says-obamacare/w5qT9PWcfUqpzkdO9n9W0M/):

GA-06:

-- State Sen. Brandon Beach, a Republican, says he will report about $125,000, largely from two fundraisers while he was in the legislative session.

-- Former congresswoman Karen Handel, a Republican, reported that she raised nearly $250,000 and has slightly more than $330,000 on hand including some leftovers from her 2018 campaign.

-- U.S. Rep. Lucy McBath, a Democrat, says she will report raising more than $475,000 and has nearly all of that money still in her campaign coffers.

GA-07:

-- Carolyn Bourdeaux, a Democrat and last year’s runner-up, said she’s raised $350,000 in the seven weeks since she announced her comeback bid.

-- Marqus Cole, a Democrat, reported raising about $32,000, with half of that on hand.

-- Nabilah Islam, a Democrat, reported raising about $100,000 with roughly $75,000 on hand.

[S019]

Rep. Jeff Van Drew (D-NJ) raised only $121K in the first quarter...a fraction of what all other NJ Democratic freshmen raised.

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/van-drew-struggles-to-raise-money/

Honestly I'm shocked by how weak this guy is turning out to be. He only won his primary with 57% against three nobodies, he won only 53% against a white supremacist with zero money and staff, and now he's already lagging behind.

I think he's still the best candidate the Democrats have in NJ-02 (my worry is that his part of South Jersey is drifting away from the Democrats), but I don't feel too confident.

He strikes me as a guy that will probably only serve the three terms requrired to qualify for a Congressional pension and then cash out. That's if he's fortunate enough to survive two more elections in that seat. Bob Andrzejczak would probably be better than Van Drew here anyhow.

JVD is sleepwalking and Trump will likely win this district, this is at least Tilt R, if Grossman jumps in, I'll move it to Tilt/Lean D

[Sestak]

NY-15: Ruben Diaz Sr. iN

https://patch.com/new-york/new-york-city/ruben-diaz-sr-run-congress-saying-hes-opposite-aoc

I really wanted him to run and would make a great Representative, he just has to get through the primary, could we have a HI-01 redux, where the most conservative candidate wins the primary

Gross

Please explain why, I think he'd be a great Congressman

You are a Republican. Jdb is a Democrat. That’s why.

[lfromnj]

https://www.texastribune.org/2019/04/16/pierce-bush-grandson-george-hw-bush-may-run-congress-houston/amp/


Can the Bushes win back a district that just swung like 25 points left in 6 years?

I think the answer is no

Funfact in 1976/1980 this district had the most republican PVI in the nation.

[OneJ]

Rematch underway:

https://twitter.com/Marie4Congress/status/1118129266179366913

Guess who (unsurprisingly) endorsed her:

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1118319418453438465

[S019]

Rematch underway:

https://twitter.com/Marie4Congress/status/1118129266179366913

Guess who (unsurprisingly) endorsed her:

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1118319418453438465

Go Lipinski

Ehh, I guess House Dems have now blacklisted Kirsten Gillibrand  (not that it would help or hurt her in any way)

[Zaybay]

Rematch underway:

https://twitter.com/Marie4Congress/status/1118129266179366913

Guess who (unsurprisingly) endorsed her:

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1118319418453438465

Go Lipinski

Ehh, I guess House Dems have now blacklisted Kirsten Gillibrand  (not that it would help or hurt her in any way)

They would blacklist her.........for Lipinski?