AZ Data Orbital: Sinema +5
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UWS
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #25 on: October 19, 2018, 01:27:49 PM »

Indeed, it is liberal trend. If you look at this link, most of the Data Orbital polls released in Arizona in 2016 showed Trump leading by less than 4 percentage points and there is even one of them showing Clinton ahead by 1. And at the end, Trump won Arizona by 4.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016#Arizona
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #26 on: October 19, 2018, 01:29:46 PM »
« Edited: October 19, 2018, 01:35:07 PM by ON Progressive »

Indeed, it is liberal trend. If you look at this link, most of the Data Orbital polls released in Arizona in 2016 showed Trump leading by less than 4 percentage points and there is even one of them showing Clinton ahead by 1. And at the end, Trump won Arizona by 4.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016#Arizona

Their last poll had Trump ahead by 8, but it's a very liberal pollster because I said so!

Also, it's a pollster that literally does GOP internals. Hardly a liberal pollster.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #27 on: October 19, 2018, 01:31:27 PM »

Indeed, it is liberal trend. If you look at this link, most of the Data Orbital polls released in Arizona in 2016 showed Trump leading by less than 4 percentage points and there is even one of them showing Clinton ahead by 1. And at the end, Trump won Arizona by 4.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016#Arizona

Is it enough to account for +5, though? By the liberal bias metric, that would mean Sinema is still likely up (though not by much). 
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #28 on: October 19, 2018, 01:41:13 PM »

I’m fine with McSally losing, she’s easily my least favorite Republican Senate candidate in a competitive race this year.
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UWS
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« Reply #29 on: October 19, 2018, 01:45:24 PM »

 This poll didn’t even talk about early voting. Because according to early vote totals in Arizona, the GOP is ahead by 27 000 votes among early voters and is also ahead in the Maricopa County by 26 000 votes.

http://www.arizona.vote/early-ballot-statistics
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Person Man
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« Reply #30 on: October 19, 2018, 01:47:46 PM »

Indeed, it is liberal trend. If you look at this link, most of the Data Orbital polls released in Arizona in 2016 showed Trump leading by less than 4 percentage points and there is even one of them showing Clinton ahead by 1. And at the end, Trump won Arizona by 4.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016#Arizona

Is it enough to account for +5, though? By the liberal bias metric, that would mean Sinema is still likely up (though not by much). 

Let's say that averages R +1.5. Arizona was R+3.5. If the poll is D+5, the bias wouldn't be enough to get under D+1 or D+2. I'm willing to unskew but not by much.
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Xing
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« Reply #31 on: October 19, 2018, 01:53:54 PM »

I thought only red avatars unskewed polls, lolz.

Anyway, still a Toss-Up, but I’d probably rather be Sinema than McSally.
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Webnicz
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« Reply #32 on: October 19, 2018, 03:02:49 PM »

Data Orbital typicaly does internals for the GOP so I really wouldnt want to call them a liberal pollster. Polls they have done are good.


Indeed, it is liberal trend. If you look at this link, most of the Data Orbital polls released in Arizona in 2016 showed Trump leading by less than 4 percentage points and there is even one of them showing Clinton ahead by 1. And at the end, Trump won Arizona by 4.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016#Arizona

You bring up some good points in regards to their 2016 polling. I will say the poll showing clinton with a lead in early October was probably accurate. In AZ Clinton was doing very well in the weeks leading up to early voting, so I wouldn't doubt that se was actually leading in our state. Once voting started Trump started picking up speed in AZ.

their October 29-30th poll is about accurate with the margin. and early voting was over by that point which likely reflects in that poll.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #33 on: October 19, 2018, 03:42:04 PM »

I’m fine with McSally losing, she’s easily my least favorite Republican Senate candidate in a competitive race this year.

Surely you wouldn't rather have had her two jokes of primary opponents, right?
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #34 on: October 26, 2018, 07:39:13 PM »

Here we go...I told you so.

AZ Pollster Data Orbital admit their Poll last week showing Sinema ahead by 5 was off...

http://chamberbusinessnews.com/2018/10/26/where-is-the-blue-wave/

Well, I was the first one who never believe in this Sinema + 5 crap.
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Holy Unifying Centrist
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« Reply #35 on: October 26, 2018, 07:54:07 PM »

Here we go...I told you so.

AZ Pollster Data Orbital admit their Poll last week showing Sinema ahead by 5 was off...

http://chamberbusinessnews.com/2018/10/26/where-is-the-blue-wave/

Well, I was the first one who never believe in this Sinema + 5 crap.


Their model was +9 GOP while the current electorate is +11 GOP.

Looks like Sinema could still have the lead, just smaller than +5.

Remember AZ-08 had a +20 GOP (48-27 GOP) mail-in advatage but Debbie Lesko only ended up winning by 4.8.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #36 on: October 26, 2018, 07:58:09 PM »

Here we go...I told you so.

AZ Pollster Data Orbital admit their Poll last week showing Sinema ahead by 5 was off...

http://chamberbusinessnews.com/2018/10/26/where-is-the-blue-wave/

Well, I was the first one who never believe in this Sinema + 5 crap.


Their model was +9 GOP while the current electorate is +11 GOP.

Looks like Sinema could still have the lead, just smaller than +5.

Remember AZ-08 had a +20 GOP (48-27 GOP) mail-in advatage but Debbie Lesko only ended up winning by 4.8.
AZ-08 just as easily could of been a fluke
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Holy Unifying Centrist
DTC
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« Reply #37 on: October 26, 2018, 08:00:53 PM »

Here we go...I told you so.

AZ Pollster Data Orbital admit their Poll last week showing Sinema ahead by 5 was off...

http://chamberbusinessnews.com/2018/10/26/where-is-the-blue-wave/

Well, I was the first one who never believe in this Sinema + 5 crap.


Their model was +9 GOP while the current electorate is +11 GOP.

Looks like Sinema could still have the lead, just smaller than +5.

Remember AZ-08 had a +20 GOP (48-27 GOP) mail-in advatage but Debbie Lesko only ended up winning by 4.8.
AZ-08 just as easily could of been a fluke

Hillary Clinton also won a decent amount of Arizona republicans & independents
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #38 on: October 26, 2018, 08:09:38 PM »

Here we go...I told you so.

AZ Pollster Data Orbital admit their Poll last week showing Sinema ahead by 5 was off...

http://chamberbusinessnews.com/2018/10/26/where-is-the-blue-wave/

Well, I was the first one who never believe in this Sinema + 5 crap.


Their model was +9 GOP while the current electorate is +11 GOP.

Looks like Sinema could still have the lead, just smaller than +5.

Remember AZ-08 had a +20 GOP (48-27 GOP) mail-in advatage but Debbie Lesko only ended up winning by 4.8.

Have you read the Article. Their Pollster admitted the AZ Senate Race "Leans R" at this Point with new EV Data. Yes, Hillary won Indies but not by almost 20 Points like "Data Orbital" was suggesting in their Poll.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #39 on: October 26, 2018, 08:13:54 PM »

Here we go...I told you so.

AZ Pollster Data Orbital admit their Poll last week showing Sinema ahead by 5 was off...

http://chamberbusinessnews.com/2018/10/26/where-is-the-blue-wave/

Well, I was the first one who never believe in this Sinema + 5 crap.


Their model was +9 GOP while the current electorate is +11 GOP.

Looks like Sinema could still have the lead, just smaller than +5.

Remember AZ-08 had a +20 GOP (48-27 GOP) mail-in advatage but Debbie Lesko only ended up winning by 4.8.

Have you read the Article. Their Pollster admitted the AZ Senate Race "Leans R" at this Point with new EV Data. Yes, Hillary won Indies but not by almost 20 Points like "Data Orbital" was suggesting in their Poll.
And what you fail to comprehend is that Sinema has this lead even while their polling sample has a GOP advantage of 9%.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #40 on: October 26, 2018, 08:23:33 PM »

Here we go...I told you so.

AZ Pollster Data Orbital admit their Poll last week showing Sinema ahead by 5 was off...

http://chamberbusinessnews.com/2018/10/26/where-is-the-blue-wave/

Well, I was the first one who never believe in this Sinema + 5 crap.


Their model was +9 GOP while the current electorate is +11 GOP.

Looks like Sinema could still have the lead, just smaller than +5.

Remember AZ-08 had a +20 GOP (48-27 GOP) mail-in advatage but Debbie Lesko only ended up winning by 4.8.

Have you read the Article. Their Pollster admitted the AZ Senate Race "Leans R" at this Point with new EV Data. Yes, Hillary won Indies but not by almost 20 Points like "Data Orbital" was suggesting in their Poll.

I didn't see anything in the article that said the Senate races "Leans R". Besides, you are reading far too much into early voting totals. It could be that Republicans are burning up most of their overall vote in early voting.
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Webnicz
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« Reply #41 on: October 26, 2018, 08:42:46 PM »

Here we go...I told you so.

AZ Pollster Data Orbital admit their Poll last week showing Sinema ahead by 5 was off...

http://chamberbusinessnews.com/2018/10/26/where-is-the-blue-wave/

Well, I was the first one who never believe in this Sinema + 5 crap.


Their model was +9 GOP while the current electorate is +11 GOP.

Looks like Sinema could still have the lead, just smaller than +5.

Remember AZ-08 had a +20 GOP (48-27 GOP) mail-in advatage but Debbie Lesko only ended up winning by 4.8.
AZ-08 just as easily could of been a fluke

AZ08 will have close to or the same turnout in the general election as in the special election. The same people got ballots mailed to them and the same people will mail them back.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #42 on: October 26, 2018, 08:43:56 PM »

Here we go...I told you so.

AZ Pollster Data Orbital admit their Poll last week showing Sinema ahead by 5 was off...

http://chamberbusinessnews.com/2018/10/26/where-is-the-blue-wave/

Well, I was the first one who never believe in this Sinema + 5 crap.


Their model was +9 GOP while the current electorate is +11 GOP.

Looks like Sinema could still have the lead, just smaller than +5.

Remember AZ-08 had a +20 GOP (48-27 GOP) mail-in advatage but Debbie Lesko only ended up winning by 4.8.

Have you read the Article. Their Pollster admitted the AZ Senate Race "Leans R" at this Point with new EV Data. Yes, Hillary won Indies but not by almost 20 Points like "Data Orbital" was suggesting in their Poll.

I didn't see anything in the article that said the Senate races "Leans R". Besides, you are reading far too much into early voting totals. It could be that Republicans are burning up most of their overall vote in early voting.

Then you better read this...

"Although many have the race in the “tossup” category, Khalaf thinks the race seems to be leaning to the right because of the turnout numbers."
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #43 on: October 26, 2018, 08:45:29 PM »

Here we go...I told you so.

AZ Pollster Data Orbital admit their Poll last week showing Sinema ahead by 5 was off...

http://chamberbusinessnews.com/2018/10/26/where-is-the-blue-wave/

Well, I was the first one who never believe in this Sinema + 5 crap.


Their model was +9 GOP while the current electorate is +11 GOP.

Looks like Sinema could still have the lead, just smaller than +5.

Remember AZ-08 had a +20 GOP (48-27 GOP) mail-in advatage but Debbie Lesko only ended up winning by 4.8.

Have you read the Article. Their Pollster admitted the AZ Senate Race "Leans R" at this Point with new EV Data. Yes, Hillary won Indies but not by almost 20 Points like "Data Orbital" was suggesting in their Poll.
And what you fail to comprehend is that Sinema has this lead even while their polling sample has a GOP advantage of 9%.


No, Sinema didn't have a lead to begin with.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #44 on: October 26, 2018, 08:52:48 PM »

Here we go...I told you so.

AZ Pollster Data Orbital admit their Poll last week showing Sinema ahead by 5 was off...

http://chamberbusinessnews.com/2018/10/26/where-is-the-blue-wave/

Well, I was the first one who never believe in this Sinema + 5 crap.


Their model was +9 GOP while the current electorate is +11 GOP.

Looks like Sinema could still have the lead, just smaller than +5.

Remember AZ-08 had a +20 GOP (48-27 GOP) mail-in advatage but Debbie Lesko only ended up winning by 4.8.

Have you read the Article. Their Pollster admitted the AZ Senate Race "Leans R" at this Point with new EV Data. Yes, Hillary won Indies but not by almost 20 Points like "Data Orbital" was suggesting in their Poll.

I didn't see anything in the article that said the Senate races "Leans R". Besides, you are reading far too much into early voting totals. It could be that Republicans are burning up most of their overall vote in early voting.

Then you better read this...

"Although many have the race in the “tossup” category, Khalaf thinks the race seems to be leaning to the right because of the turnout numbers."

You put "Lean R" in quotes which implied that the article specifically stated that. But you seem to be emotionally invested in winning this race, so post whatever makes you feel better.
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OneJ
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« Reply #45 on: October 26, 2018, 08:52:54 PM »

Here we go...I told you so.

AZ Pollster Data Orbital admit their Poll last week showing Sinema ahead by 5 was off...

http://chamberbusinessnews.com/2018/10/26/where-is-the-blue-wave/

Well, I was the first one who never believe in this Sinema + 5 crap.


Their model was +9 GOP while the current electorate is +11 GOP.

Looks like Sinema could still have the lead, just smaller than +5.

Remember AZ-08 had a +20 GOP (48-27 GOP) mail-in advatage but Debbie Lesko only ended up winning by 4.8.

Have you read the Article. Their Pollster admitted the AZ Senate Race "Leans R" at this Point with new EV Data. Yes, Hillary won Indies but not by almost 20 Points like "Data Orbital" was suggesting in their Poll.

Considering you have that username, you should know better than to try and read too much into the early vote (FL-2016, NC-2016, GA-06-2017, MT-AL-2017, etc.).
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #46 on: October 26, 2018, 08:57:53 PM »

Here we go...I told you so.

AZ Pollster Data Orbital admit their Poll last week showing Sinema ahead by 5 was off...

http://chamberbusinessnews.com/2018/10/26/where-is-the-blue-wave/

Well, I was the first one who never believe in this Sinema + 5 crap.


Their model was +9 GOP while the current electorate is +11 GOP.

Looks like Sinema could still have the lead, just smaller than +5.

Remember AZ-08 had a +20 GOP (48-27 GOP) mail-in advatage but Debbie Lesko only ended up winning by 4.8.

Have you read the Article. Their Pollster admitted the AZ Senate Race "Leans R" at this Point with new EV Data. Yes, Hillary won Indies but not by almost 20 Points like "Data Orbital" was suggesting in their Poll.

I didn't see anything in the article that said the Senate races "Leans R". Besides, you are reading far too much into early voting totals. It could be that Republicans are burning up most of their overall vote in early voting.

Then you better read this...

"Although many have the race in the “tossup” category, Khalaf thinks the race seems to be leaning to the right because of the turnout numbers."

You put "Lean R" in quotes which implied that the article specifically stated that. But you seem to be emotionally invested in winning this race, so post whatever makes you feel better.

Quite the oppsite it. You Democrats can never admit that you were wrong her after gloating about this Poll for 48 Hours last week like "Data Orbital" is best, etc.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #47 on: October 26, 2018, 09:02:29 PM »

Here we go...I told you so.

AZ Pollster Data Orbital admit their Poll last week showing Sinema ahead by 5 was off...

http://chamberbusinessnews.com/2018/10/26/where-is-the-blue-wave/

Well, I was the first one who never believe in this Sinema + 5 crap.


Their model was +9 GOP while the current electorate is +11 GOP.

Looks like Sinema could still have the lead, just smaller than +5.

Remember AZ-08 had a +20 GOP (48-27 GOP) mail-in advatage but Debbie Lesko only ended up winning by 4.8.

Have you read the Article. Their Pollster admitted the AZ Senate Race "Leans R" at this Point with new EV Data. Yes, Hillary won Indies but not by almost 20 Points like "Data Orbital" was suggesting in their Poll.

I didn't see anything in the article that said the Senate races "Leans R". Besides, you are reading far too much into early voting totals. It could be that Republicans are burning up most of their overall vote in early voting.

Then you better read this...

"Although many have the race in the “tossup” category, Khalaf thinks the race seems to be leaning to the right because of the turnout numbers."

You put "Lean R" in quotes which implied that the article specifically stated that. But you seem to be emotionally invested in winning this race, so post whatever makes you feel better.

Quite the oppsite it. You Democrats can never admit that you were wrong her after gloating about this Poll for 48 Hours last week like "Data Orbital" is best, etc.

Nobody was wrong, she has lead in most credible polls or been close. You are too caught up looking at early numbers which more often than not are faulty are predicting elections. Independents will play a big part in deciding the race and Sinema will certainly get Republican votes.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #48 on: October 26, 2018, 09:03:44 PM »

Here we go...I told you so.

AZ Pollster Data Orbital admit their Poll last week showing Sinema ahead by 5 was off...

http://chamberbusinessnews.com/2018/10/26/where-is-the-blue-wave/

Well, I was the first one who never believe in this Sinema + 5 crap.


Their model was +9 GOP while the current electorate is +11 GOP.

Looks like Sinema could still have the lead, just smaller than +5.

Remember AZ-08 had a +20 GOP (48-27 GOP) mail-in advatage but Debbie Lesko only ended up winning by 4.8.

Have you read the Article. Their Pollster admitted the AZ Senate Race "Leans R" at this Point with new EV Data. Yes, Hillary won Indies but not by almost 20 Points like "Data Orbital" was suggesting in their Poll.

I didn't see anything in the article that said the Senate races "Leans R". Besides, you are reading far too much into early voting totals. It could be that Republicans are burning up most of their overall vote in early voting.

Then you better read this...

"Although many have the race in the “tossup” category, Khalaf thinks the race seems to be leaning to the right because of the turnout numbers."

You put "Lean R" in quotes which implied that the article specifically stated that. But you seem to be emotionally invested in winning this race, so post whatever makes you feel better.

Quite the oppsite it. You Democrats can never admit that you were wrong her after gloating about this Poll for 48 Hours last week like "Data Orbital" is best, etc.

Nobody was wrong, she has lead in most credible polls or been close. You are too caught up looking at early numbers which more often than not are faulty are predicting elections. Independents will play a big part in deciding the race and Sinema will certainly get Republican votes.

Trump is right: Fake Polls, Fake News Media.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #49 on: October 27, 2018, 10:38:56 AM »

The pollster is wrong to think that, though. Anyone who paid attention to the AZ-08 EV would know. The Arizona EV is wonky. Reps were up like 20% in EV yet Lesko only won by 4.
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