AZ Data Orbital: Sinema +5

[Webnicz]

Data Orbital typicaly does internals for the GOP so I really wouldnt want to call them a liberal pollster. Polls they have done are good.

Indeed, it is liberal trend. If you look at this link, most of the Data Orbital polls released in Arizona in 2016 showed Trump leading by less than 4 percentage points and there is even one of them showing Clinton ahead by 1. And at the end, Trump won Arizona by 4.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016#Arizona

You bring up some good points in regards to their 2016 polling. I will say the poll showing clinton with a lead in early October was probably accurate. In AZ Clinton was doing very well in the weeks leading up to early voting, so I wouldn't doubt that se was actually leading in our state. Once voting started Trump started picking up speed in AZ.

their October 29-30th poll is about accurate with the margin. and early voting was over by that point which likely reflects in that poll.

[Webnicz]

Here we go...I told you so.

AZ Pollster Data Orbital admit their Poll last week showing Sinema ahead by 5 was off...

http://chamberbusinessnews.com/2018/10/26/where-is-the-blue-wave/

Well, I was the first one who never believe in this Sinema + 5 crap.

Their model was +9 GOP while the current electorate is +11 GOP.

Looks like Sinema could still have the lead, just smaller than +5.

Remember AZ-08 had a +20 GOP (48-27 GOP) mail-in advatage but Debbie Lesko only ended up winning by 4.8.

AZ-08 just as easily could of been a fluke

AZ08 will have close to or the same turnout in the general election as in the special election. The same people got ballots mailed to them and the same people will mail them back.