AZ Data Orbital: Sinema +5 (user search)
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  AZ Data Orbital: Sinema +5 (search mode)
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Author Topic: AZ Data Orbital: Sinema +5  (Read 3842 times)
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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Posts: 36,681
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« on: October 19, 2018, 11:41:33 AM »

Honestly, every Poll who has that Baby face Sinema ahead is bad.

I say it again: Sinema wins because she has a good look and is pretty. Arizonans seem to like that.

Her Policies & stands on the issues, constant flip-flopping around meanwhile is bad for the State.

...
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,681
United States


« Reply #1 on: October 19, 2018, 12:01:24 PM »

Honestly, every Poll who has that Baby face Sinema ahead is bad.

I say it again: Sinema wins because she has a good look and is pretty. Arizonans seem to like that.

Her Policies & stands on the issues, constant flip-flopping around meanwhile is bad for the State.
I get you're not the brightest, but it's best if you keep your 'thoughts' to yourself

Something what Mark Twain said...
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,681
United States


« Reply #2 on: October 19, 2018, 01:47:46 PM »

Indeed, it is liberal trend. If you look at this link, most of the Data Orbital polls released in Arizona in 2016 showed Trump leading by less than 4 percentage points and there is even one of them showing Clinton ahead by 1. And at the end, Trump won Arizona by 4.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016#Arizona

Is it enough to account for +5, though? By the liberal bias metric, that would mean Sinema is still likely up (though not by much). 

Let's say that averages R +1.5. Arizona was R+3.5. If the poll is D+5, the bias wouldn't be enough to get under D+1 or D+2. I'm willing to unskew but not by much.
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