AZ NYT/Siena: McSally +4 (poll is incomplete)
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  AZ NYT/Siena: McSally +4 (poll is incomplete)
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Author Topic: AZ NYT/Siena: McSally +4 (poll is incomplete)  (Read 2451 times)
Sir Mohamed
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« on: October 17, 2018, 08:28:17 AM »
« edited: October 17, 2018, 08:58:37 AM by Brittain33 »

McSally (R): 49%
Sinema (D): 45%

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-azsen-3.html

Looks like the trendline goes towards McSally. The sample size of 299 LVs is relatively small. Toss-up.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #1 on: October 17, 2018, 08:29:42 AM »

Not shocked. Arizona is turning into Arizona after the primaries are over and the Democrat said stupid anti-American stuff and talked smack about the people of the state she is running in.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #2 on: October 17, 2018, 08:29:53 AM »

The poll isnt even done yet! These go to 800 respondents!
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #3 on: October 17, 2018, 08:31:38 AM »

They havenít finished the poll yet, I believe.
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OneJ
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« Reply #4 on: October 17, 2018, 08:33:07 AM »

They havenít finished the poll yet, I believe.
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History505
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« Reply #5 on: October 17, 2018, 08:33:47 AM »

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ON Progressive
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« Reply #6 on: October 17, 2018, 08:36:21 AM »


They havenít. Not even close either.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #7 on: October 17, 2018, 08:37:49 AM »

The poll is literally only 37% done. Lets wait for the whole entire thing.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #8 on: October 17, 2018, 08:39:32 AM »

McSally only pulled ahead because Trump's approval is inflated here. It's now +6, whereas when Sinema was +6, it was about -1 or -2. It's not +6 in AZ.

Which means that McSally (+4) isn't even matching Trump's approval (+6)
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #9 on: October 17, 2018, 08:46:40 AM »

The poll isnt even done yet! These go to 800 respondents!

Sure, but 538 has that one on already. Sinema has a lead among RVs, though.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #10 on: October 17, 2018, 08:48:53 AM »
« Edited: October 17, 2018, 08:57:57 AM by Zaybay »

The poll isnt even done yet! These go to 800 respondents!

Sure, but 538 has that one on already. Sinema has a lead among RVs, though.

yeah, they do that with all of the polls. They entered in TX senate poll in with 50 respondents. They routinely update it until the results are there.

Edit: you should always wait for the poll to be completed before making conclusions. Looking at the poll so far, Hispanics are tied, so it would be smart for more people to call in so the crosstabs can get closer to reality.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #11 on: October 17, 2018, 08:58:25 AM »

Modifying the title to reflect the poll is incomplete. Hopefully OP can update when the final number is in or someone can ping me to remind me to do it.
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Pyro
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« Reply #12 on: October 17, 2018, 09:07:14 AM »

Knowing the sampling trend of these Siena polls, I'd expect McSally +9 when the poll is complete.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #13 on: October 17, 2018, 09:22:18 AM »

Modifying the title to reflect the poll is incomplete. Hopefully OP can update when the final number is in or someone can ping me to remind me to do it.

Thank you. I'll check that out frequently anyway.
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2016
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« Reply #14 on: October 17, 2018, 10:07:07 AM »

Yes, the Poll is incomplete. That being said there are some notable things to look at.

By a 52-41 margin Voters say that they want a Republican controlled Senate. This matters a lot.

In NV that's 49-48 Democrat
In TN that's 58-34 Republican
In TX that's 52-40 Republican

Voters clearly are willing to give Democrats the House but not the Senate.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #15 on: October 17, 2018, 10:15:56 AM »

Yes, the Poll is incomplete. That being said there are some notable things to look at.

By a 52-41 margin Voters say that they want a Republican controlled Senate. This matters a lot.

In NV that's 49-48 Democrat
In TN that's 58-34 Republican
In TX that's 52-40 Republican

Voters clearly are willing to give Democrats the House but not the Senate.
Or that shows these Sienna polls are too R friendly
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #16 on: October 17, 2018, 10:20:42 AM »

Yes, the Poll is incomplete. That being said there are some notable things to look at.

By a 52-41 margin Voters say that they want a Republican controlled Senate. This matters a lot.

In NV that's 49-48 Democrat
In TN that's 58-34 Republican
In TX that's 52-40 Republican

Voters clearly are willing to give Democrats the House but not the Senate.
Or that shows these Sienna polls are too R friendly

No, they ain't. If you look at the Congressional District Polls by them in most they have a Democrat ahead.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #17 on: October 17, 2018, 10:24:33 AM »

Yes, the Poll is incomplete. That being said there are some notable things to look at.

By a 52-41 margin Voters say that they want a Republican controlled Senate. This matters a lot.

In NV that's 49-48 Democrat
In TN that's 58-34 Republican
In TX that's 52-40 Republican

Voters clearly are willing to give Democrats the House but not the Senate.
Or that shows these Sienna polls are too R friendly

No, they ain't. If you look at the Congressional District Polls by them in most they have a Democrat ahead.
Considering Dems are up double digits in most polling thatís hardly surprising or vindication
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #18 on: October 17, 2018, 10:30:14 AM »

1. Why did you post this when itís incomplete? 2. Itís probably going to be McSally +12 in the end because these NYT Live polls are so damn R-friendly.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #19 on: October 17, 2018, 10:34:28 AM »

Aren't they polling between 500 and 800 people for the Senate races ?

So, 300 doesn't mean a lot.

And besides, Siena only has a track record of polling house races in the NY area, so I would take any other results with scepticism ...
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Xing
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« Reply #20 on: October 17, 2018, 10:38:06 AM »

Even with the (poll is incomplete) part, you know people are going to be drawing lots of conclusions already.
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #21 on: October 17, 2018, 10:52:01 AM »

I'm confused why Trump approval in many of these state polls is so at odds with the national polls. If Trump is -10 nationwide, there's no way he should be +6 in AZ, or -1 in NV, or even +7 in TX.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #22 on: October 17, 2018, 11:00:15 AM »

Trump is not plus 6 net approval in Arizona.
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Pouring Rain and Blairing Music
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« Reply #23 on: October 17, 2018, 11:45:59 AM »

I'm confused why Trump approval in many of these state polls is so at odds with the national polls. If Trump is -10 nationwide, there's no way he should be +6 in AZ, or -1 in NV, or even +7 in TX.

Overinflation of small demographics to make up for poor sampling of said groups.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #24 on: October 17, 2018, 11:55:50 AM »

These polls are garbage. The race is a tossup.
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