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  Talk Elections
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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  NV-SEN Suffolk: Rosen +1
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Author Topic: NV-SEN Suffolk: Rosen +1  (Read 1888 times)
TheRocketRaccoon
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« on: September 11, 2018, 11:10:51 am »

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Nevada_Suffolk_September_2018.pdf

Rosen 42
UTDH 41
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Zaybay
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« Reply #1 on: September 11, 2018, 11:12:45 am »

Wow, Heller is at 40, like he always has been. This couldnt possibly point to a trend that Heller is tied to Trump's approval and that most undecideds will go to the D.

NAH, HELLAH FORE LIFE!!
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Hindsight is 2020
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« Reply #2 on: September 11, 2018, 11:13:40 am »

Actually not bad if you read the poll and see how heavy Trump supporter it is
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Skye
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« Reply #3 on: September 11, 2018, 11:18:04 am »

I mean, it's not like the race isn't competitive, but Heller isn't really in a good position.
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Joshua
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« Reply #4 on: September 11, 2018, 11:23:05 am »

I expect a 50-45-5 Rosen win when the dust has settled.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #5 on: September 11, 2018, 11:34:12 am »

Rosen is proving to be an exceedingly weak candidate. The climate still is likelier than not to pull her over the line, but Heller's odds of winning are increasing with time.
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DaWN
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« Reply #6 on: September 11, 2018, 11:37:07 am »

I expect this poll to be exceptionally accurate in that Heller will almost certainly get 40% of the vote.
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Mondale
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« Reply #7 on: September 11, 2018, 11:48:16 am »

Heller is finished

Dont be surprised if you see him working the blackjack table at the MGM in a couple of months
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President Biden
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« Reply #8 on: September 11, 2018, 11:56:28 am »
« Edited: September 11, 2018, 02:13:35 pm by DeSantis for Governor »

Rosen is proving to be an exceedingly weak candidate. The climate still is likelier than not to pull her over the line, but Heller's odds of winning are increasing with time.
You will be attacked by a certain someone with a D-PA avatar, but I agree. She should be doing better than this in a blue wave year with a deeply unpopular Senator Heller.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #9 on: September 11, 2018, 01:24:29 pm »

Yet another poll with the incumbent Senator at 40% of the vote even with a sample that is more Republican than 2016 (yeah, sounds SO plausible!) Only on Atlas could this be spun as good news for him, lol.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #10 on: September 11, 2018, 01:24:29 pm »

I mean, it's not like the race isn't competitive, but Heller isn't really in a good position.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #11 on: September 11, 2018, 01:37:16 pm »

Rosen is proving to be an exceedingly weak candidate. The climate still is likelier than not to pull her over the line, but Heller's odds of winning are increasing with time.
You will be attacked by a certain someone with an O-MT avatar, but I agree. She should be doing better than this in a blue wave year with a deeply unpopular Senator Heller.

This is the best Tom Cotton can do in a deep red state during a red wave? Muh Cotton weak candidate/muh Pryor strong candidate! Let's just ignore that in almost all of these he struggles to crack 40%, because clearly that's completely irrelevant to this race, which will surely end as a barn burner!

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President Biden
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« Reply #12 on: September 11, 2018, 02:03:42 pm »

Rosen is proving to be an exceedingly weak candidate. The climate still is likelier than not to pull her over the line, but Heller's odds of winning are increasing with time.
You will be attacked by a certain someone with an O-MT avatar, but I agree. She should be doing better than this in a blue wave year with a deeply unpopular Senator Heller.

This is the best Tom Cotton can do in a deep red state during a red wave? Muh Cotton weak candidate/muh Pryor strong candidate! Let's just ignore that in almost all of these he struggles to crack 40%, because clearly that's completely irrelevant to this race, which will surely end as a barn burner!


Nevada is no Arkansas.
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DTC
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« Reply #13 on: September 11, 2018, 02:08:47 pm »

And heller is a much weaker incumbent than Pyror
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IceSpear
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« Reply #14 on: September 11, 2018, 02:12:29 pm »

Rosen is proving to be an exceedingly weak candidate. The climate still is likelier than not to pull her over the line, but Heller's odds of winning are increasing with time.
You will be attacked by a certain someone with an O-MT avatar, but I agree. She should be doing better than this in a blue wave year with a deeply unpopular Senator Heller.

This is the best Tom Cotton can do in a deep red state during a red wave? Muh Cotton weak candidate/muh Pryor strong candidate! Let's just ignore that in almost all of these he struggles to crack 40%, because clearly that's completely irrelevant to this race, which will surely end as a barn burner!


Nevada is no Arkansas.

Yes, which is why Heller won't lose by 17 points.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #15 on: September 11, 2018, 02:24:08 pm »

Rosen is proving to be an exceedingly weak candidate. The climate still is likelier than not to pull her over the line, but Heller's odds of winning are increasing with time.
You will be attacked by a certain someone with an O-MT avatar, but I agree. She should be doing better than this in a blue wave year with a deeply unpopular Senator Heller.

This is the best Tom Cotton can do in a deep red state during a red wave? Muh Cotton weak candidate/muh Pryor strong candidate! Let's just ignore that in almost all of these he struggles to crack 40%, because clearly that's completely irrelevant to this race, which will surely end as a barn burner!


Nevada is no Arkansas.

Yes, which is why Heller won't lose by 17 points.
I rated this Lean D, Rosen will win solely due to the national environment despite being a weak candidate.

Explain in detail why she's a "weak candidate."
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #16 on: September 11, 2018, 02:25:43 pm »

Rosen is proving to be an exceedingly weak candidate. The climate still is likelier than not to pull her over the line, but Heller's odds of winning are increasing with time.

The economy is sluggish but shows signs of improvement, that's why Heller is running even
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President Biden
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« Reply #17 on: September 11, 2018, 03:06:32 pm »

Rosen is proving to be an exceedingly weak candidate. The climate still is likelier than not to pull her over the line, but Heller's odds of winning are increasing with time.
You will be attacked by a certain someone with an O-MT avatar, but I agree. She should be doing better than this in a blue wave year with a deeply unpopular Senator Heller.

This is the best Tom Cotton can do in a deep red state during a red wave? Muh Cotton weak candidate/muh Pryor strong candidate! Let's just ignore that in almost all of these he struggles to crack 40%, because clearly that's completely irrelevant to this race, which will surely end as a barn burner!


Nevada is no Arkansas.

Yes, which is why Heller won't lose by 17 points.
I rated this Lean D, Rosen will win solely due to the national environment despite being a weak candidate.

Explain in detail why she's a "weak candidate."
The same reasons as Krysten Sinema: Running to the center and not inspiring to the liberal base. Not going on the offensive enough.
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Blair
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« Reply #18 on: September 11, 2018, 03:12:38 pm »

I wouldn't say Rosen is a weak candidate- I think both 2010 and 2014 proved that rather average, but steady house members (Cory Gardner, Tom Cotton, Boozman, Kirk etc etc) can easily win in a good environment.

Does she have experience winning a swing seat? Yes. Does Rosen have any major scandals? No. Does she have the support of the Reid Machine? Yes.

It's not as if there's a better recruit elsewhere.

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Former Kentuckian
Cal
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« Reply #19 on: September 11, 2018, 03:13:01 pm »

I haven't been happy with some of the decisions Rosen's campaign staff have made, but Rosen herself isn't a weak candidate and no one has been able to effectively articulate why they consider her one. I think she's a strong candidate because she's able to walk a fine line by mixing her background as a businesswoman, a religious leader, and someone with a humble background (casino waitress) and combine them into an effective and relatable public persona that has already allowed her to take down one election. I think her staff have made some dumb mistakes, but she doesn't need to run a perfect campaign in order to win this. She's a fine candidate and she's got this, imo.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #20 on: September 11, 2018, 03:25:21 pm »

Rosen is proving to be an exceedingly weak candidate. The climate still is likelier than not to pull her over the line, but Heller's odds of winning are increasing with time.
You will be attacked by a certain someone with an O-MT avatar, but I agree. She should be doing better than this in a blue wave year with a deeply unpopular Senator Heller.

This is the best Tom Cotton can do in a deep red state during a red wave? Muh Cotton weak candidate/muh Pryor strong candidate! Let's just ignore that in almost all of these he struggles to crack 40%, because clearly that's completely irrelevant to this race, which will surely end as a barn burner!


Nevada is no Arkansas.

Yes, which is why Heller won't lose by 17 points.
I rated this Lean D, Rosen will win solely due to the national environment despite being a weak candidate.

Explain in detail why she's a "weak candidate."
The same reasons as Krysten Sinema: Running to the center and not inspiring to the liberal base. Not going on the offensive enough.

She seems to be running as a generic center left Democrat to me. Not anywhere near a Berniecrat obviously, but nothing close to Sinema either. And she's released several attack ads against Heller (in fact, someone else here said she was a "weak candidate" because she had TOO MANY attack ads.)

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https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/05/politics/nevada-senate-candidates-immigration/index.html
https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/politics-and-government/nevada/rosen-ad-targets-heller-for-health-care-vote/
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/rosen-attacks-heller-as-senator-spineless-in-new-ad-focused-on-aca-repeal-attempts
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IceSpear
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« Reply #21 on: September 11, 2018, 03:32:38 pm »

I wouldn't say Rosen is a weak candidate- I think both 2010 and 2014 proved that rather average, but steady house members (Cory Gardner, Tom Cotton, Boozman, Kirk etc etc) can easily win in a good environment.

Does she have experience winning a swing seat? Yes. Does Rosen have any major scandals? No. Does she have the support of the Reid Machine? Yes.

It's not as if there's a better recruit elsewhere.

Personally I would've preferred Ross Miller, Dina Titus, or Ruben Kihuen (before his scandal.) But Rosen is fine too. She won a Trump district in 2016 of all years, so clearly she can't be as terrible and godawful as many people here think she is.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #22 on: September 11, 2018, 03:55:44 pm »

tilt D
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Daines' Bipartisan Bills™
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« Reply #23 on: September 11, 2018, 04:41:29 pm »

Heller isn’t quite DOA yet since NV is one of the very few Clinton states where Republicans could theoretically still win a Senate race (especially in a midterm with lower Hispanic turnout), but unless the national environment improves for Republicans or they dramatically outperform expectations, he’ll definitely remain the most vulnerable Senator. Republicans couldn’t even win here with Heck in 2016, Heller has struggled to crack 40% in most polls (which is pathetic for a Republican in Nevada) and has terrible approval ratings, NV polling usually understates Democratic strength and Rosen is definitely a stronger candidate than Heller himself or the joke he only beat by 1 six years ago.

That said, her haircut is uninspiring, so Toss-up. Smiley
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #24 on: September 11, 2018, 04:44:26 pm »

Heller's vote on Kavanaugh would be hurtful to the voters of Nevada, not to mention the GOP effort to skinny repeal Obamacare
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