NV-SEN Suffolk: Rosen +1

[IceSpear]

Yet another poll with the incumbent Senator at 40% of the vote even with a sample that is more Republican than 2016 (yeah, sounds SO plausible!) Only on Atlas could this be spun as good news for him, lol.

[IceSpear]

Rosen is proving to be an exceedingly weak candidate. The climate still is likelier than not to pull her over the line, but Heller's odds of winning are increasing with time.

You will be attacked by a certain someone with an O-MT avatar, but I agree. She should be doing better than this in a blue wave year with a deeply unpopular Senator Heller.

This is the best Tom Cotton can do in a deep red state during a red wave? Muh Cotton weak candidate/muh Pryor strong candidate! Let's just ignore that in almost all of these he struggles to crack 40%, because clearly that's completely irrelevant to this race, which will surely end as a barn burner!

[IceSpear]

Rosen is proving to be an exceedingly weak candidate. The climate still is likelier than not to pull her over the line, but Heller's odds of winning are increasing with time.

You will be attacked by a certain someone with an O-MT avatar, but I agree. She should be doing better than this in a blue wave year with a deeply unpopular Senator Heller.

This is the best Tom Cotton can do in a deep red state during a red wave? Muh Cotton weak candidate/muh Pryor strong candidate! Let's just ignore that in almost all of these he struggles to crack 40%, because clearly that's completely irrelevant to this race, which will surely end as a barn burner!

Nevada is no Arkansas.

Yes, which is why Heller won't lose by 17 points.

[IceSpear]

Rosen is proving to be an exceedingly weak candidate. The climate still is likelier than not to pull her over the line, but Heller's odds of winning are increasing with time.

You will be attacked by a certain someone with an O-MT avatar, but I agree. She should be doing better than this in a blue wave year with a deeply unpopular Senator Heller.

This is the best Tom Cotton can do in a deep red state during a red wave? Muh Cotton weak candidate/muh Pryor strong candidate! Let's just ignore that in almost all of these he struggles to crack 40%, because clearly that's completely irrelevant to this race, which will surely end as a barn burner!

Nevada is no Arkansas.

Yes, which is why Heller won't lose by 17 points.

I rated this Lean D, Rosen will win solely due to the national environment despite being a weak candidate.

Explain in detail why she's a "weak candidate."

[IceSpear]

Rosen is proving to be an exceedingly weak candidate. The climate still is likelier than not to pull her over the line, but Heller's odds of winning are increasing with time.

You will be attacked by a certain someone with an O-MT avatar, but I agree. She should be doing better than this in a blue wave year with a deeply unpopular Senator Heller.

This is the best Tom Cotton can do in a deep red state during a red wave? Muh Cotton weak candidate/muh Pryor strong candidate! Let's just ignore that in almost all of these he struggles to crack 40%, because clearly that's completely irrelevant to this race, which will surely end as a barn burner!

Nevada is no Arkansas.

Yes, which is why Heller won't lose by 17 points.

I rated this Lean D, Rosen will win solely due to the national environment despite being a weak candidate.

Explain in detail why she's a "weak candidate."

The same reasons as Krysten Sinema: Running to the center and not inspiring to the liberal base. Not going on the offensive enough.

She seems to be running as a generic center left Democrat to me. Not anywhere near a Berniecrat obviously, but nothing close to Sinema either. And she's released several attack ads against Heller (in fact, someone else here said she was a "weak candidate" because she had TOO MANY attack ads.)

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https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/05/politics/nevada-senate-candidates-immigration/index.html
https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/politics-and-government/nevada/rosen-ad-targets-heller-for-health-care-vote/
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/rosen-attacks-heller-as-senator-spineless-in-new-ad-focused-on-aca-repeal-attempts

[IceSpear]

I wouldn't say Rosen is a weak candidate- I think both 2010 and 2014 proved that rather average, but steady house members (Cory Gardner, Tom Cotton, Boozman, Kirk etc etc) can easily win in a good environment.

Does she have experience winning a swing seat? Yes. Does Rosen have any major scandals? No. Does she have the support of the Reid Machine? Yes.

It's not as if there's a better recruit elsewhere.

Personally I would've preferred Ross Miller, Dina Titus, or Ruben Kihuen (before his scandal.) But Rosen is fine too. She won a Trump district in 2016 of all years, so clearly she can't be as terrible and godawful as many people here think she is.

[IceSpear]

Suffolk had Senator-elect Heck up by 3 in Nevada in September 2016, and he certainly didn't "improve with time", lol. Heller might not lose by double digits, but it's amazing how people forget every time how polls regularly underestimate Democrats in Nevada. If Heller somehow wins re-election in Nevada, it's because some enormous scandal about Rosen breaks in October, or because Democrats are having a terrible night and losing 5-6 Senate seats while only making minimal gains in the House. There is no universe in which Democrats win the House while Heller wins re-election. If you don't believe me, well, neither did most posters in 2016 when I suggested that there was absolutely no way that Clinton would win without Nevada, and that Democrats wouldn't take the Senate without it.

This.

Actually, I'd go even further. If Heller somehow wins re-election without a massive scandal hitting Rosen, Republicans gaining a filibuster proof majority in the Senate is definitely in the realm of possibility.

[IceSpear]

A couple Obama rallies here would be great.

Obama shouldn't waste his time with likely D races. After all, Rosen is already ahead in the polling average despite this:

When Sisolak and Rosen win by more than expected, will Atlas finally accept that Nevada at least leans Democratic, and isn't the most likely state to flip to Trump in 2020?

... Nah, they'll say it's a Toss-Up again as soon as a poll has a Democrat only leading Trump by 3 there in 2020. Anyway, terrible poll for Laxalt.

They'll never learn, but here's an easy bookmarkable post we can go back to for future reference.

[IceSpear]

Every poll seems like a bad result for Rosen, only being up for 1 in a blue-ish state in a value year... but, Nevada polling always seems to exaggerate R's.

No, being at 40% of the vote is bad for incumbent Senator, not for Rosen.

[IceSpear]

Could Jacky Rosen even have beaten Tarkanian? Easily one of the most overrated candidates this election cycle.

No, she would've lost to him, just like she did in 2016 in a Trump district.