NYT LIVE POLL THREAD:

[Jeppe]

Weighting by education is going to really hurt Ojeda's poll numbers. He's up 39 among white college graduates. But he's down by 29 among whites with no college degree.

Only 16% of the congressional district's residents have at least a Bachelor's degree, 84% don't.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Can someone describe to me a Manchin-Miller voter please?

Probably people who don't know who Ojeda is, and assumes he's a random Democrat. There's probably quite a few of them, given the low-fund nature of this race.

That. Also could be someone who liked Manchin for some specific reason when he was governor, and still will vote for Manchin on the basis of inertia, "I have always voted for Manchin."

Finally, it could be someone who will only vote for Democrats if they have literally shot liberal legislation with a rifle, in which case Manchin would qualify but as far as I know, Ojeda would not.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Weighting by education is going to really hurt Ojeda's poll numbers. He's up 39 among white college graduates. But he's down by 29 among whites with no college degree.

Only 16% of the congressional district's residents have at least a Bachelor's degree, 84% don't.

Wow, that has to be one of the lowest percentages in the country.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Weighting by education is going to really hurt Ojeda's poll numbers. He's up 39 among white college graduates. But he's down by 29 among whites with no college degree.

Only 16% of the congressional district's residents have at least a Bachelor's degree, 84% don't.

A little bit, but I don't think quite so much as you are thinking. The % of voters with a college degree will be significantly higher than the % of population with a college degree.

Currently:

7/78 (9%) of those polled are non-white
31/78 (40%) of those polled are white college
40/78 (51%) of those polled are white non-college

In comparison to those percentages of voters who have been contacted so far in the sample, NYT/Siena is estimating that 10% of the electorate will be non-white, 35% white college, and 55% white non-college.

If this is correct, weighting that to 10%/35%/55% will certainly make some difference, but it doesn't look like it will be more than a few points. The sample is currently not that far off the target by education.


And on the other hand, the sample *is* still off by more among some other demographics that are favorable to Ojeda, particularly age 65+. This is his best age group so far (and it makes sense that WV would be different from the rest of the country in this way, with him doing well among old Demosaurs). But while age 65+ is only 18% of the sample so far, they are 27% of the expected electorate.

So when more age 65+ voters get polled/weighted in, that may end up helping Ojeda and perhaps even more than counterbalancing the effects of weighting/sampling more precisely by education.


Of course, the sample is way too small to interpret anything really in terms of support yet, but we can see these differences between the expected electorate weights and the sample so far.

[john cage bubblegum]

It appears VA-07 will be added to the mix this evening.  This is definitely a district I'm happy about getting a high-quality poll.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

It appears VA-07 will be added to the mix today.  This is definitely a district I'm happy about getting a high-quality poll.

Heck No. There are at least 30 more districts I would want to see done before this one.

[john cage bubblegum]

It appears VA-07 will be added to the mix today.  This is definitely a district I'm happy about getting a high-quality poll.

Heck No. There are at least 30 more districts I would want to see done before this one.

Well...the good news is that if you don't like the district being polled today, you get at least one new one tomorrow.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

It appears VA-07 will be added to the mix today.  This is definitely a district I'm happy about getting a high-quality poll.

Heck No. There are at least 30 more districts I would want to see done before this one.

Well...the good news is that if you don't like the district being polled today, you get at least one new one tomorrow.

True, I’m still grateful for this, and I’ll still watch it, and I am excited about WV 3rd too. I think when NYT is done, Brat will be up by 5 points.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I'm happy NYT is polling VA-07 next.  So far, all of the polls have been in districts everyone assumes are toss-ups, and a poll of Lean-R district adds some diversity.  I hope we'll get some polls of districtds like CA-22 and PA-08 as well.

[Florida Man for Crime]

It appears VA-07 will be added to the mix today.  This is definitely a district I'm happy about getting a high-quality poll.

Heck No. There are at least 30 more districts I would want to see done before this one.

I am quite happy that they are polling some Lean/Likely R races and not just the tossups. I think we can be pretty confident from other polls and information that the races that most prognosticators have as tossups are in fact tossup/competitive (and in some cases like MN-03, maybe really more like lean Dem at this point).

But what I have less of a firm idea about is to what extent the Lean/Likely R races are really competitive or not. Are races like VA-07 really competitive? A surprising poll result could potentially change my opinion on that more easily than it could change my opinion about the races that are currently rated tossups.

[Jeppe]

It appears VA-07 will be added to the mix today.  This is definitely a district I'm happy about getting a high-quality poll.

Heck No. There are at least 30 more districts I would want to see done before this one.

I am quite happy that they are polling some Lean/Likely R races and not just the tossups. I think we can be pretty confident from other polls and information that the races that most prognosticators have as tossups are in fact tossup/competitive (and in some cases like MN-03, maybe really more like lean Dem at this point).

But what I have less of a firm idea about is to what extent the Lean/Likely R races are really competitive or not. Are races like VA-07 really competitive? A surprising poll result could potentially change my opinion on that more easily than it could change my opinion about the races that are currently rated tossups.

Democrats outvoted Republicans by a healthy margin, despite both parties having competitive primaries (VA-07 Dem primary, VA Senate GOP primary).

It's like OH-12, with the strong urban-rural divide, but the district overall is more Democratic-leaning and has a stronger Democratic candidate.

[CityofSinners]

Cook and Sabato both rate VA-07 as a tossup. Polling this race fits into their motto of first polling the most competitive districts.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Cook and Sabato both rate VA-07 as a tossup. Polling this race fits into their motto of first polling the most competitive districts.

Fair enough. I guess more what I had in mind was polling non-Clinton districts that have traditionally been strongly Republican. It voted 51-44 for Trump, and also safely backed Republicans in the past (even in Dem years like 06 and 08). So at least mentally, I put it in a different category from races like e.g. CA-10, CA-25, WA-08, etc (other races that have more of a history of being competitive).

VA-07 is thought to be competitive in large part because Spanberger is thought to be a particularly strong candidate.

[Sorenroy]

I'm happy NYT is polling VA-07 next.  So far, all of the polls have been in districts everyone assumes are toss-ups, and a poll of Lean-R district adds some diversity.  I hope we'll get some polls of districtds like CA-22 and PA-08 as well.

I would love to see them poll one or two safe R/D districts just to see what it would look like in comparison to all the tossups they're planning on polling already. It would be cool to see them poll something like NC-11 (Mark Meadow's district) just to see what something that extremely R favored would look like.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I bet even I am better at leg extensions than Carol Miller.

[Pollster]

Does anybody know if they plan to poll Senate races?

With regards to House districts, I'd love to see KS-02 and KS-03 (both of which I hear are currently virtual ties), WI-01, NM-02, MT and AK-AL, the NJ battlegrounds, WA-05, NY-11, and AR-02.

[Ebsy]

They have said that they are planning on polling Senate races.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I want to see polls for GA-7, WI-6, PA-10, CO-3, WA-5, MI-1, Bob Gibbs’ seat, AR-2, NY-1, Tom Reed’s district, OH-1, NJ-4, OH-15, OH-14, John Carter’s seat, NC-2, IN-9, MO-2, NE-2, MN-1, IL-13, NM-2, AK-AL, Brian Mast and Vern Buchanan’s seats, CA-4, Fred Upton and Tim Walberg’s seats, SC-1, and Mike Kelly’s seat.

[Predictor]

VA-07 is nice but what about VA-10? I'd much rather see that.

[DrScholl]

VA-10 would be a waste of time to poll at this point since it's fairly clear how that one will turnout.

[GeorgiaModerate]

They've resumed polling in at least MN-08.

[Florida Man for Crime]

They've resumed polling in at least MN-08.

Also WV-03 and MN-03 now.

It will be interesting to see what happens with the weighting for WV-03 as more responses come in.

[Yellowhammer]

MN-08 is tied now.

[BlueDogs2020]

Today in WV3 they added regional results (4 areas). Ojeda has a 34% lead in "coal country" and a narrow lead in Greenbrier (east part) and Logan area.
The only area he is behind in is Huntington, and by double digits. This is really good data for Ojeda to work with.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Ojeda up 11 with huge sample size of 81. Dominating.