NYT LIVE POLL THREAD:

[Antonio the Sixth]

I hate the way 538 is handling these live polls. They seem to be entering them every day as completely separate data points. That means that KY-06 will likely go into their model as three different polls despite the fact that over a fifth of the voters will be the same throughout. Also, Sienna (the company doing the polling) is saying pretty clearly that, unless the polls have over 500 responses, they are not finished. It seems to me like a poor practice on 538's part.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls

I sent feedback to 538 about the KY-06 poll being included with a sample size of 164, and got a response this morning: "...we're updating any Siena/Upshot poll once its sample size is over 150. Then we put in the finished poll once it's done."

This is ridiculous. I can't believe that people at 538 don't know better.

[MAINEiac4434]

I hate the way 538 is handling these live polls. They seem to be entering them every day as completely separate data points. That means that KY-06 will likely go into their model as three different polls despite the fact that over a fifth of the voters will be the same throughout. Also, Sienna (the company doing the polling) is saying pretty clearly that, unless the polls have over 500 responses, they are not finished. It seems to me like a poor practice on 538's part.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls

I sent feedback to 538 about the KY-06 poll being included with a sample size of 164, and got a response this morning: "...we're updating any Siena/Upshot poll once its sample size is over 150. Then we put in the finished poll once it's done."

This is ridiculous. I can't believe that people at 538 don't know better.

Nate Silver is extremely bitter at NYT. It’s just people trying to ingratiate themselves with the boss.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I hate the way 538 is handling these live polls. They seem to be entering them every day as completely separate data points. That means that KY-06 will likely go into their model as three different polls despite the fact that over a fifth of the voters will be the same throughout. Also, Sienna (the company doing the polling) is saying pretty clearly that, unless the polls have over 500 responses, they are not finished. It seems to me like a poor practice on 538's part.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls

I sent feedback to 538 about the KY-06 poll being included with a sample size of 164, and got a response this morning: "...we're updating any Siena/Upshot poll once its sample size is over 150. Then we put in the finished poll once it's done."

This is ridiculous. I can't believe that people at 538 don't know better.

Nate Silver is extremely bitter at NYT. It’s just people trying to ingratiate themselves with the boss.

How does entering polls wrong in their database hurt the NYT in any way? It only hurts 538 since it risks skewing their forecasts.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Dems are gaining at the moment in MN-03. Paulsen's lead is down to 49-46, up to 116 respondents.

[ltomlinson31]

Dems are gaining at the moment in MN-03. Paulsen's lead is down to 49-46, up to 116 respondents.

What a surge by Phillips!

[Xing]

XINGKERUI Ratings Change Projection

MN-03: Likely R to Toss-Up

[wbrocks67]

Barr holding onto +1 in KY-06 as its probably going to end soon. 502 respondents right now.

Amy has a 51/38 favorable while Barr only 47/45. Trump's approval is actually -6 in this district (wow) and people want Dems to take the house by +2, so I'd expect the undecideds to break for McGrath in this case.

What I'm confused about though is in the "Our poll under different weighting schemes" section. In all weighting models, they have McGrath leading, by 3, 2, and 2. Yet their final "estimate" is Barr +1. I am confusion.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1038486230168752130

[McGovernForPrez]

I wonder why the response rate in Minnesota is so much higher compared to all the districts polled so far? It's only take them 8000 calls to get about 300 responses which is much better than all the other districts polled.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1038486230168752130

That's actually a good point.

[Predictor]

Some districts I hope they poll next:

• AZ-02
• CO-03
• CO-06
• MI-11
• MN-01
• MN-02
• MN-07
• WV-03

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

These polls aren't actually that interesting if they are all just weighted to show up as virtual ties.

[wesmoorenerd]

MN-03 and MN-08 both tied at 47 and 43 each respectively. Gun to my head, Dems win both, although that may be my bias talking because I really like both Phillips and Radinovich.

[GeorgiaModerate]

MN-03 and MN-08 both tied at 47 and 43 each respectively. Gun to my head, Dems win both, although that may be my bias talking because I really like both Phillips and Radinovich.

As soon as you posted that, they both moved off the tie to D+1.

[Xing]

These polls aren't actually that interesting if they are all just weighted to show up as virtual ties.

That's a good point. It would be pretty suspicious if literally every poll showed a result within 1 or 2%.

[GeorgiaModerate]

These polls aren't actually that interesting if they are all just weighted to show up as virtual ties.

That's a good point. It would be pretty suspicious if literally every poll showed a result within 1 or 2%.

Well, they are polling highly competitive districts so far.  It's not that surprising.

[Xing]

WV-03 is coming up next.

[BundouYMB]

Phillips is +3 right now, but among people who are certain to vote he's +10. Similar story for Radinovich, who's +2 overall but +4 among those certain to vote. The switch to likely voters is going to hit Republicans like a truck this year.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

These polls aren't actually that interesting if they are all just weighted to show up as virtual ties.

That's a good point. It would be pretty suspicious if literally every poll showed a result within 1 or 2%.

Well, they are polling highly competitive districts so far.  It's not that surprising.

Even if every district were in fact tied, sampling error should produce a larger range of results.  If you saw six polls of the same race that were all within the 1% of each other, you would start to suspect herding, often through manipulating the weights to achieve a certain balance in the turnout model.

[IceSpear]

It's funny how fast these change. Last night Paulsen and Radinovich were dominating, and now both races are close.

[Tintrlvr]

These polls aren't actually that interesting if they are all just weighted to show up as virtual ties.

That's a good point. It would be pretty suspicious if literally every poll showed a result within 1 or 2%.

Well, they are polling highly competitive districts so far.  It's not that surprising.

Even if every district were in fact tied, sampling error should produce a larger range of results.  If you saw six polls of the same race that were all within the 1% of each other, you would start to suspect herding, often through manipulating the weights to achieve a certain balance in the turnout model.

Exactly. I brought this up earlier. It's suspicious even with just four polls. If each of the races is exactly tied in reality, we should still be seeing some results with sizeable leads for one candidate or another. Instead, we have four polls that are each within 1%. (If you look at the numbers without rounding, all four finished polls show results with a less than 1-point margin.) That's statistically very improbable.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

WV-03 is coming up next.

STRAIGHT OUTTA BECKLEY boyz!!!!

here is the link for the results, none in yet though

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-wv03-1.html

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Phillips is starting to get a lead and doing well with moderates and undecideds, not a large lead, not a large sampling, but slightly out of the range of statistical insignificance which is notable at least in my book.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Phillips up 49-44 over Paulsen in MN-03 now (378 respondents). Looking a bit more like a burbstomping now. Will the momentary fluctuation of Phillips' lead hold up?

[nerd73]

So WV-03 is starting. I'm sure this will be interesting.