NYT LIVE POLL THREAD:

[Xing]

MN-08 is too early to really be able to tell. As for KY-06, a narrow Barr lead isn't devasting news for McGrath. It's not like 3% (and this margin could certainly change) is insurmountable, and did anyone really think she was trouncing Barr by 15%?

[Strudelcutie4427]

Everyone has caller ID now. If you get a number you don’t know nobody would answer it. I can’t beliebe they still do these

[ON Progressive]

MN-08 is too early to really be able to tell. As for KY-06, a narrow Barr lead isn't devasting news for McGrath. It's not like 3% (and this margin could certainly change) is insurmountable, and did anyone really think she was trouncing Barr by 15%?

Also, only 166 people still. I'd wait until at least 300 to really say anything significant about KY-06.

[GeorgiaModerate]

MN-08 is too early to really be able to tell. As for KY-06, a narrow Barr lead isn't devasting news for McGrath. It's not like 3% (and this margin could certainly change) is insurmountable, and did anyone really think she was trouncing Barr by 15%?

Also, only 166 people still. I'd wait until at least 300 to really say anything significant about KY-06.

Even at 300, the MoE is still very high (+/- 5.6%).

[Zaybay]

To give an idea how volatile these polls are, McGrath is now leading by 3 points, 47/44

[Xing]

That's weird. One response caused the margin to go from 46-44 Barr to 47-44 McGrath. Was it a glitch or something? Or were they not calculating the percentages properly before then?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

That's weird. One response caused the margin to go from 46-44 Barr to 47-44 McGrath. Was it a glitch or something? Or were they not calculating the percentages properly before then?

It might be rounding

[Florida Man for Crime]

Regarding KY-06, yesterday they way undersampled 18-29 year olds. They only got 2 responses out of 371 18-29s called yesterday.

So hopefully they get some more responses from the youngs, and perhaps that may be one thing that helps push McGrath back into the lead. But we will see...

That's weird. One response caused the margin to go from 46-44 Barr to 47-44 McGrath. Was it a glitch or something? Or were they not calculating the percentages properly before then?

See my earlier comment about 18-29s above.

They are now up to 4 responses from 18-29s (and McGrath has 100% of them so far). Because they weight by age, the few responses they get from 18-29s count more.

So what you saw was may have been the 18-29s coming in to the sample.

[Predictor]

MN-03 has been added to the list of polled districts. Results expected to begin around 7 PM EST

[Florida Man for Crime]

It is interesting just how different MN-08 and KY-06 are in terms of name recognition. Both candidates in KY-06 have only 10% who don't have a fav/unfav opinion. But in MN-08, 61% have never heard of Radinovich and 54% have never heard of Stauber.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

It is interesting just how different MN-08 and KY-06 are in terms of name recognition. Both candidates in KY-06 have only 10% who don't have a fav/unfav opinion. But in MN-08, 61% have never heard of Radinovich and 54% have never heard of Stauber.

It correlates also to the higher undecided % as well.

[ON Progressive]

I know there's not a lot, but I find it interesting that it seems like rural districts like MN-08 and IL-12 have better response rates than suburban districts like CA-45 and IL-06. Any theories as to why this is?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Seems people are finally starting to respond to the polling.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

MN-03 should start coming in soon.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Even 500 is a pretty small sample, especially if you're going to use weighting which tends to increase the margin of error.

[Arkansas Yankee]

I hope you can post most of the results.

I will not pay any paper, magazine, or website of any political description any $ for access.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I hope you can post most of the results.

I will not pay any paper, magazine, or website of any political description any $ for access.

Open the page in Incognito mode and you won't have to pay.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Even 500 is a pretty small sample, especially if you're going to use weighting which tends to increase the margin of error.

Yeah... nyt should either try to get the sample up to 800 or weight the results less

[Predictor]

Time for MN-03 poll is now at 9 PM EST.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Yeah... nyt should either try to get the sample up to 800 or weight the results less

I'd rather have polls of 8 house districts with a 500 sample size each than 5 disstricts with an 800 sample size each. Since there are so many districts competitively within the reach, that is the only way to get polls for a good number of them, and 500 is a pretty reasonable sample at least for the topline.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Radinovich +6
Barr +1

So far in these results.

[Florida Man for Crime]

The MN-03 poll has begun. 4 calls, 0 responses so far

[Coffein00]

if they continue with that speed in MN-3, they won't even get 100 responds before the election...
6 calls in 15 minutes, 0 people responded

[Xing]

I realize that House polls needs to be taken with mounds of salt, but I will say that this is a really neat idea and it's interesting to see how the numbers unfold.

[Predictor]

The MN-03 poll has begun. 4 calls, 0 responses so far

Up to 15 now with no responses!