NYT LIVE POLL THREAD:

[bilaps]

so after reaching 500 sample size they finished polling in 3 out of 5

rohrabacher tied at 45 with rouda

roskam and bost up 1

[BudgieForce]

so after reaching 500 sample size they finished polling in 3 out of 5

rohrabacher tied at 45 with rouda

roskam and bost up 1

I assume there's more to it than that.

[diptheriadan]

Apparently Amy McGrath is winning old folks. Neat.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

For those of you who were not here last night here is a recap:

NYT live polled and showed the results of five of some of the most critical highly competitive tossup seats:

IL 6th

IL 12th

CA 48th

KY 6th

MN 8th

And the results for all five were all rather unsurprising

[Adam Griffin]

As of right now, Barr is up by 2 in KY-6 (while Trump has a 46/50 favorability: wow).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Believe it or not, 538 has added the KY-06 poll (with N=164!) to their database, but none of the others.   This is really poor practice IMO.

[Hatman 🍁]

Even as someone who is very familiar at how this particular sausage gets made (polling), this is still very fascinating. It hits very close to home.

LOL at how there's not even a 2% response rate.

Ha! Welcome to polling in the 21st century.  This also clearly shows at how hard it is to poll Millennials. On Twitter, so many people were saying "lol we don't answer our phones, why don't you text us instead". Do they think we haven't already thought of that? There's legislation against anonymous texting.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

Anyway, all these numbers seem believable. I think it's more likely than not to get worse for Roskam (based on what my best friend has alluded to who works for him) and Rohrabacher. Possibly Bost too.

I hope they poll some of ME-2, CA-25, CA-39, CA-10, and VA-2 next.

What makes you think it would get worse for Rohrabacher and Roskam? In both cases, the undecideds seem to lean Republican.

IL-06: "About 11 percent of voters said that they were undecided or refused to tell us whom they would vote for. On questions about issues, these voters most closely resembled Republicans."

It's currently 45 GOP - 44 DEM -11 UNDECIDED

CA-48: "About 10 percent of voters said that they were undecided or refused to tell us whom they would vote for. On questions about issues, these voters most closely resembled Republicans."

It's currently 45 GOP - 45 DEM - 10 UNDECIDED 

[Alaska2392]

Saw this last night on the NYT website. Want to say it was about 8:30 Pacific Time.  So we're they phoning people in Illinois at 10:30 at night? That's the part I don't really get.

[Tintrlvr]

Honestly, it seems statistically very unlikely that polls of each of these races would find results within 1-2% of tied. Something odd is going on.

[ON Progressive]

Anybody know when the polling will resume?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Anyway, all these numbers seem believable. I think it's more likely than not to get worse for Roskam (based on what my best friend has alluded to who works for him) and Rohrabacher. Possibly Bost too.

I hope they poll some of ME-2, CA-25, CA-39, CA-10, and VA-2 next.

What makes you think it would get worse for Rohrabacher and Roskam? In both cases, the undecideds seem to lean Republican.

IL-06: "About 11 percent of voters said that they were undecided or refused to tell us whom they would vote for. On questions about issues, these voters most closely resembled Republicans."

It's currently 45 GOP - 44 DEM -11 UNDECIDED

CA-48: "About 10 percent of voters said that they were undecided or refused to tell us whom they would vote for. On questions about issues, these voters most closely resembled Republicans."

It's currently 45 GOP - 45 DEM - 10 UNDECIDED  

Trump has a 40% approval in both of these districts and a 54% disapproval

In addition, Rouda and Casten have very high amounts of people who don't know them but a high net favorable.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Anybody know when the polling will resume?

Probably during the evening hours tonight.

[ON Progressive]

Anyway, all these numbers seem believable. I think it's more likely than not to get worse for Roskam (based on what my best friend has alluded to who works for him) and Rohrabacher. Possibly Bost too.

I hope they poll some of ME-2, CA-25, CA-39, CA-10, and VA-2 next.

What makes you think it would get worse for Rohrabacher and Roskam? In both cases, the undecideds seem to lean Republican.

IL-06: "About 11 percent of voters said that they were undecided or refused to tell us whom they would vote for. On questions about issues, these voters most closely resembled Republicans."

It's currently 45 GOP - 44 DEM -11 UNDECIDED

CA-48: "About 10 percent of voters said that they were undecided or refused to tell us whom they would vote for. On questions about issues, these voters most closely resembled Republicans."

It's currently 45 GOP - 45 DEM - 10 UNDECIDED  

Trump has a 40% approval in both of these districts and a 54% disapproval

In addition, Rouda and Casten have very high amounts of people who don't know them but a high net favorable.

Meanwhile, both Rohrabacher and Roskam net favourables are below water.

[Sorenroy]

So here are the three polls finished so far

Illinois-06:
Peter Roskam — 45%
Sean Casten — 44%
512 Responses, 4.7 MoE

Illinois-12:
Mike Bost — 44%
Brendan Kelly — 43%
533 Responses, 4.6 MoE

California-48:
Harley Rouda — 45%
Dana Rohrabacher — 45%
501 Responses, 4.8 MoE

However, if you look at the answer to the question about preference on who controls the House come next year those numbers change to the following:

Illinois-06:
Democrats — 51% (+7)
Republicans — 44% (-1)

Illinois-12:
Republicans — 46% (+2)
Democrats — 43% (±0)

California-48:
Democrats — 49% (+4)
Republicans — 45% (±0)

I know it isn't consistent movement between all three polls, but it is interesting to me that people aren't sure how they'll vote locally but know who they want to control the House nationally. IL-06 is especially interesting in both that >50% of people want Democrats to control the House and Republicans actually lose a percentage point from where their local nominee is at.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Anyway, all these numbers seem believable. I think it's more likely than not to get worse for Roskam (based on what my best friend has alluded to who works for him) and Rohrabacher. Possibly Bost too.

I hope they poll some of ME-2, CA-25, CA-39, CA-10, and VA-2 next.

What makes you think it would get worse for Rohrabacher and Roskam? In both cases, the undecideds seem to lean Republican.

IL-06: "About 11 percent of voters said that they were undecided or refused to tell us whom they would vote for. On questions about issues, these voters most closely resembled Republicans."

It's currently 45 GOP - 44 DEM -11 UNDECIDED

CA-48: "About 10 percent of voters said that they were undecided or refused to tell us whom they would vote for. On questions about issues, these voters most closely resembled Republicans."

It's currently 45 GOP - 45 DEM - 10 UNDECIDED 

It would be pretty surprising if the undecideds didn't more closely resemble Republicans than Democrats. These are generally Republican-leaning districts.

There are more Republican-leaning voters than Democratic-leaning voters in the districts Democrats are trying to pick up in general, so it stands to reason that more of the undecideds would be Republican-leaning.

[Wiz in Wis]

Anyway, all these numbers seem believable. I think it's more likely than not to get worse for Roskam (based on what my best friend has alluded to who works for him) and Rohrabacher. Possibly Bost too.

I hope they poll some of ME-2, CA-25, CA-39, CA-10, and VA-2 next.

What makes you think it would get worse for Rohrabacher and Roskam? In both cases, the undecideds seem to lean Republican.

IL-06: "About 11 percent of voters said that they were undecided or refused to tell us whom they would vote for. On questions about issues, these voters most closely resembled Republicans."

It's currently 45 GOP - 44 DEM -11 UNDECIDED

CA-48: "About 10 percent of voters said that they were undecided or refused to tell us whom they would vote for. On questions about issues, these voters most closely resembled Republicans."

It's currently 45 GOP - 45 DEM - 10 UNDECIDED 

It would be pretty surprising if the undecideds didn't more closely resemble Republicans than Democrats. These are generally Republican-leaning districts.

There are more Republican-leaning voters than Democratic-leaning voters in the districts Democrats are trying to pick up in general, so it stands to reason that more of the undecideds would be Republican-leaning.

At this point, however, not having a preference, but being GOP leaning, suggests a lot of undecideds just won't vote.

[Florida Man for Crime]

MN-03 poll starting tonight. I will guess that Paulsen is down by 4 at the end of the night (with an incomplete sample).

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1038110434350575623

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

MN-03 poll starting tonight. I will guess that Paulsen is down by 4 at the end of the night (with an incomplete sample).

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1038110434350575623

yup gotta finish the unfinished polls and start new ones

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

KY-06 and MN-08 are running again

KY-06:
Andy Barr - 46%
Amy McGrath - 44%

MN-08:

Joe Radinovich - 45%
Pete Stauber - 38%

[Predictor]

As of typing:

MN-08: TIED (77 respondents)

KY-06: Barr +2 (164 respondents)

[Florida Man for Crime]

KY-06 and MN-08 are running again

KY-06:
Andy Barr - 46%
Amy McGrath - 44%

MN-08:

Joe Radinovich - 45%
Pete Stauber - 38%

Oh no, Stauber caught up to Radinovich in MN-08 now that we are up to 78 responses...

42-42 now. Red wave incoming!


--- edit ---

79th respondent went Dem. Radinovich pulls ahead 43-41!

BLUE WAVE INCOMING!

[IceSpear]

KY-06 and MN-08 are running again

KY-06:
Andy Barr - 46%
Amy McGrath - 44%

MN-08:

Joe Radinovich - 45%
Pete Stauber - 38%

Oh no, Stauber caught up to Radinovich in MN-08 now that we are up to 78 responses...

42-42 now. Red wave incoming!

The impact of the McSally tutu ad has reached Duluth. This is a disaster.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Regarding KY-06, yesterday they way undersampled 18-29 year olds. They only got 2 responses out of 371 18-29s called yesterday.

So hopefully they get some more responses from the youngs, and perhaps that may be one thing that helps push McGrath back into the lead. But we will see...

[Predictor]

Update:

MN-08: R+3 (83 respondents)

KY-06: R+3 (166 respondents)