Virginia HoD Redraw Thread - SCOTUS will not stop map drawing

[Virginiá]

RIP VAGOP

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1053026724873678848

He's a professor at UC-Irvine and he did the 2015 redraw of the congressional map.

Great News!  Fully endorsed!

[Gass3268]

Grrrrrrrr

https://twitter.com/AHoweBlogger/status/1062354038757486593

[ON Progressive]

Grrrrrrrr

https://twitter.com/AHoweBlogger/status/1062354038757486593

Oh no.

[Gass3268]

Grrrrrrrr

https://twitter.com/AHoweBlogger/status/1062354038757486593

Oh no.

Reading through on Twitter, folks think there is probably 4 votes to overturn, but not 5. However, this probably means the 2019 elections will be done under the current lines.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1062371184044589061

I should note that I believe that Justice Thomas has ruled with the Liberals on I think all of these Virginia cases, but for completely different reasons. I think it's because he thinks there should be no VRA protections or something like that.

[Virginiá]

Honestly, as nice as it would be to get new a map, it's not even necessary for Democrats to flip the House of Delegates. Their current seats are fairly solid (give or take) and there has been a decent amount of movement away from Republicans since 2016 in like 6 - 10 other seats Republicans currently hold. So Democrats have solid opportunities in at least those seats, and they only need to net 2.

[windjammer]

Yeah honestly it doesn't matter a lot.

[Bojack Horseman]

Honestly, as nice as it would be to get new a map, it's not even necessary for Democrats to flip the House of Delegates. Their current seats are fairly solid (give or take) and there has been a decent amount of movement away from Republicans since 2016 in like 6 - 10 other seats Republicans currently hold. So Democrats have solid opportunities in at least those seats, and they only need to net 2.

I was about to say the same thing. The map doesn’t really matter, the Virginia GOP will die a quick but painful death in 2019.

[Badger]

Democrats must gerrymander Virginia to their own benefit after 2020. Stop talking about a nonpartisan redistricting commission.

no

Why not? If the Dems want to have any chance of keeping the house, such measures must be taken against an increasingly underhanded opposition. Should the Democrats really tie their hands behind their back in their battle with the GOP? I say no.

Trying to take the high road in this dispute will lead to us losing elections, and handed the GOP the House on a silver platter. We cannot let this happen.

I was mostly saying "no" to Solid saying "stop talking about nonpartisan redistricting commission." I mean, why? Why should we not talk about it? Solid can be partisan af sometimes and it can be off-putting, as he always talks as if that is THE way and everyone else is wrong and that is it, end of discussion. And I say this as a pretty partisan person myself.

I kind of like Gass3268's idea. I agree that unilateral disarmament is pretty stupid given Republicans seem pro-whatever-wins-them-elections, which has included voter suppression, court packing (and other judiciary-related power grabs) and insane levels of gerrymandering. Democrats need to take the gloves off and fight back until this fight is settled.

But let's be clear about something. As far as I am concerned, gerrymandering is election rigging. It's just fancier than stuffing ballot boxes or creative Jim Crow-like ideas. Gerrymandering constantly gets talked about as if it's just some normal event that we all hate but can't seem to stop. The reality is that it is greedy, corrupt politicians rigging elections so they can cling to power regardless of what the people want. It is something that belongs in 3rd world countries, not America. And the fact that we can't seem to end something so blatantly corrupt is just amazing.

This, so much this.

The unfortunate thing is that I suspect if Dems gain the trifecta, the pro-gerry side will outweigh the anti-gerry side. Incumbents in red seats like VA-07 want protection, passing reforms in VA take time as shown above, and this dem legislature has no problem with gerrys - see the Senate map.

This, so much this.

The conclusion being, however, the opposite of yours - that Dems need to take off the gloves and go all-out. Draw a 26-0 map in New York. Abolish the independent redistricting commission in California (find a way, using whatever means necessary) and draw a 53-0 map. Draw a 17-0 map in Illinois.

ONLY after that will Dems have the leverage to force Republicans to come to the table and agree to a fair, enforceable national system for Congressional elections. Anything much short of that, and Republicans will simply continue to gerrymander regardless of whether Dems want to stop in blue states.

Your preferred course of action of simply tying Dems hands in blue states while allowing Republicans free reign in red states will simply lead to Republicans continuing to rig elections in states where they control the process in perpetuity, which means Dems will permanently have to win, as Zaybay says, with a GCB+7 or whatever to control the house.

On this issue, we have much to learn from Ronald Reagan. Peace through strength. Time for an unprecedented arms buildup - that is the only way to bring the Soviets (Republicans) to the table for an agreement of MUTUAL, rather than UNILATERAL one-sided disarmament. The analogy here to nuclear arms limitation is exactly the right one, because like nukes can destroy the world, gerrymandering can destroy democracy.

Exactly! This is what the Dems should do! We are at a permanent disadvantage if we do not take off the gloves.

The optimal plan would be to get a trifecta on NY, MN, VA, PA, CO, NM, IA, and NV, while blocking R gerrymanders in UT, MI, WI, OH, NC, GA, and FL by 2020. This would force the Rs into a minority that only a wave could get them out of. Doing this would cause Rs to suddenly go "what garbage is this? Gerrymandering sucks now!", which will bring more to the table. That is the goal.

Funny, only gerrymandering can stop gerrymandering.

I'm as opposed to gerrymandering as nearly anyone on this forum. And yet, I'm about 80 to 90% in agreement with this approach. This is particularly the case now that Kavanaugh has replaced Kennedy. The ugly fact is that the Supreme Court is about to write off gerrymandering as a constitutional issue, and the old structures and Norms that would keep it relatively in check have all but disintegrated.

I can picture states that swing at the state level Lake North Carolina and, in the not-too-distant future, Georgia, where is soon as a Democratic governor and / or secretary of state is elected the Republican by gerrymander state legislature will pass laws and their lame duck session basically stripping those Statewide offices of and he say in the redistricting process and monopolizing control in the legislature. Which as noted, continues to be a self-perpetuating gerrymandered mess. Which of course then fux up the district lines at the Congressional level and spreads the partisan power grab dysfunction to the National level.

This is frankly what we've more or less in the last 10 to 15 years. With a truly reaching a crescendo after the most recent census. My only 15 to 20% reservation is that I suspect many republican legislators, particularly when it is their own job on the line from redrawing districts, will not blink when Democratic states play chicken. And era go we will have nothing short of almost every state being horrible gerrymander which makes me pray that there has to be another way , while understanding that relying on Republicans to accept their demographic appeal is dying and to Simply play nice isn't an option

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wait, so there are two separate cases on the same topic moving through the State SC and the SCOTUS? What happens if we get different decisions, one based on the US Constitution and the other on the VA Constitution?

[Virginiá]

@Badger what I've always found amusing is that even in split control states where both parties know that no one is getting away with a gerrymander, they often still can't agree on neutral maps and end up punting to the courts. Like that is how desperate they are. They just can't bring themselves to do things fairly even when it's clear their schemes are not going to pan out.

It's almost like it physically hurts some lawmakers to draw districts that don't advantage themselves or their party.

Wait, so there are two separate cases on the same topic moving through the State SC and the SCOTUS? What happens if we get different decisions, one based on the US Constitution and the other on the VA Constitution?

I think the state-level suit already wrapped up with the VASC ruling against the plaintiffs.

The federal suit is our only hope. It should have been clear-cut but I guess not. If they drag this out into next summer, then there is no point. I'm not 100% but I think Virginia state elections in 2021 would be held under the new maps drawn for the decade, which means if the current HoD map isn't redrawn in time for 2019's elections, there isn't even any point in redrawing it at all unless the court wants to hold new elections too.

[Virginiá]

As expected:

BREAKING: “Special Master” Issues Report, Maps on Virginia Racial Packing Case; Federal Court Rejects VA Republicans’ Motion to Stay Court Order for New Map

http://bluevirginia.us/2018/12/breaking-special-master-issues-report-maps-on-virginia-racial-packing-case-federal-court-rejects-va-republicans-motion-to-stay-court-order-for-new-map

[Tintrlvr]

Wait, so there are two separate cases on the same topic moving through the State SC and the SCOTUS? What happens if we get different decisions, one based on the US Constitution and the other on the VA Constitution?

Either in theory could throw out the districts (as noted, though, the state-level case seems to be over). They can (and often do) have different results under the two constitutions, but that's okay. If the maps are unconstitutional under either constitution, they have to be redrawn, so it's effectively two bites at the apple.

[Virginiá]

I thought the VASC already settled that other lawsuit? IIRC, they ruled against it. Maybe I'm wrong though.

-

Analysis by this person says Democrats are guaranteed D+3 with the proposed maps, pending final changes, and both the maps apparently make Cox's (GOP HoD Speaker) district competitive, although one makes it seriously competitive:

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1071187775628722182

^ (is a thread)

SCOTUS will probably stay all of this eventually though, but there is a chance the primary could be pushed back and the new maps are used if the court rules favorably for the plaintiffs. Since the lower court has allowed the redraw to continue, everything would be ready to go if SCOTUS allows it.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1082716973786648576

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/gmoomaw/status/1082722673753501696

[Virginiá]

I don't understand why they wouldn't stop the redraw now if they think they may make a different decision. It's really time-sensitive at this point, considering the 2019 primaries are coming up in June. If during the summer they decide to not allow the redrawn map for whatever reason, that will completely blow up Virginia's legislative elections, since they will have either already picked the nominees or would be very close to the primary election date.

[Gass3268]

I don't understand why they wouldn't stop the redraw now if they think they may make a different decision. It's really time-sensitive at this point, considering the 2019 primaries are coming up in June. If during the summer they decide to not allow the redrawn map for whatever reason, that will completely blow up Virginia's legislative elections, since they will have either already picked the nominees or would be very close to the primary election date.

They can't stop it because there are at least 4 Justices who want to hear the case, but them allowing the new maps to get implemented in the mean time tells me that the other 5 strongly disagree.

[windjammer]

So, which districts could be affected?

[Virginiá]

So, which districts could be affected?

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1084246219982028801

I also read that in almost any iteration, Kirkland Cox's (HoD Republican Speaker) seat becomes a tossup or better, depending on the final map.

[Skill and Chance]

I don't understand why they wouldn't stop the redraw now if they think they may make a different decision. It's really time-sensitive at this point, considering the 2019 primaries are coming up in June. If during the summer they decide to not allow the redrawn map for whatever reason, that will completely blow up Virginia's legislative elections, since they will have either already picked the nominees or would be very close to the primary election date.

They can't stop it because there are at least 4 Justices who want to hear the case, but them allowing the new maps to get implemented in the mean time tells me that the other 5 strongly disagree.

This is fascinating because Roberts has historically been hardline "leave it to state legislatures" on all redistricting-related matters.  The 5th vote to uphold the redraw almost has to be Kavanaugh.

[Gass3268]

I don't understand why they wouldn't stop the redraw now if they think they may make a different decision. It's really time-sensitive at this point, considering the 2019 primaries are coming up in June. If during the summer they decide to not allow the redrawn map for whatever reason, that will completely blow up Virginia's legislative elections, since they will have either already picked the nominees or would be very close to the primary election date.

They can't stop it because there are at least 4 Justices who want to hear the case, but them allowing the new maps to get implemented in the mean time tells me that the other 5 strongly disagree.

This is fascinating because Roberts has historically been hardline "leave it to state legislatures" on all redistricting-related matters.  The 5th vote to uphold the redraw almost has to be Kavanaugh.

True, there are a couple different theories I have. One is that it's Thomas as I think he sided with the liberals in the similar case that occured for the congressional seats. The reasoning was awful, something like their should be no VRA and 0 consideration for race when drawing maps, or something like that. Two it could be Roberts, as while he has no problem overturning precedent, he has shown a great reultence to overturn precedent that was established during his tenure as Chief Justisce, even if he disagreed with the opinion. Third is your theory that it's Kavanaugh, but that would suprise me.

[Oryxslayer]

Dems just got their map for the Tidewater seats. Two reps in safe dem seats, and potentially more flips including the GOP Speakers. GG

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1087870131815018496

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Is there still time for Democrats to field additional candidates for some of the seats where the Republicans are currently uncontested?