Virginia HoD Redraw Thread - SCOTUS will not stop map drawing

[Gass3268]

Looks like this is gonna happen as I seriously doubt the Supreme Court is gonna stop them.

Democrats are releasing their proposal today:

https://twitter.com/gmoomaw/status/1034848497558806528

[Zaybay]

Looks like our chances of getting a trifecta have gone from 75% to 99.9%

[ajc0918]

Why are they releasing new maps?

[Gass3268]

Why are they releasing new maps?

I don't know the exact amount, but many of the seats in the House were ruled to be illegal racial gerrymanders.

[Tintrlvr]

Why are they releasing new maps?

I don't know the exact amount, but many of the seats in the House were ruled to be illegal racial gerrymanders.

Is this federal court? State court? Hadn't heard anything about the HoD maps being thrown out. Is the court redrawing the entire map or just select parts of it?

[windjammer]

Why are they releasing new maps?

I don't know the exact amount, but many of the seats in the House were ruled to be illegal racial gerrymanders.

Is this federal court? State court? Hadn't heard anything about the HoD maps being thrown out. Is the court redrawing the entire map or just select parts of it?

The VA Supreme Court is republican controlled, I highly doubt that they would make any ruling against gerrymandering. It's probably from judges in the circuit where VA is.

[Orser67]

Why are they releasing new maps?

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https://pilotonline.com/news/nation-world/virginia/article_ed62808c-11ca-52be-b22b-fe1f5cfd1e3d.html

[QAnonKelly]

Why are they releasing new maps?

11 of the districts were found to be racially gerrymandered

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Here's a link to the apparent proposed new plan.

http://redistricting.dls.virginia.gov/2010/RedistrictingPlans.aspx#42

https://www.virginiamercury.com/blog/house-democrats-proposed-redistricting-plan-targets-five-vulnerable-republicans/

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[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Some political data. They have data on 2012 Presidential election and some other races, but apparently not on more recent races.

Here are the districts sorted by the Obama-Romney margin in the 2012 Presidential election.

There are 50 Obama districts, 2 that are a 50-50 tie, and 48 Romney districts.

District   Obama-Romney Margin
71   70.20%
69   66.80%
89   61.60%
92   55.60%
90   54.20%
46   49.40%
49   49.40%
95   48.60%
70   47.00%
52   46.20%
80   44.80%
57   41.80%
77   40.40%
74   39.60%
45   36.80%
47   35.00%
38   33.60%
53   32.80%
11   31.20%
43   31.20%
44   30.20%
36   29.00%
63   26.40%
75   25.40%
48   24.80%
39   24.20%
37   21.80%
86   21.20%
35   20.20%
2   18.80%
41   16.80%
93   16.20%
76   14.00%
87   13.80%
94   12.80%
13   11.20%
100   10.20%
50   9.80%
62   9.60%
79   9.60%
67   8.20%
31   7.00%
42   5.80%
32   5.60%
83   5.60%
21   4.80%
12   3.80%
51   3.60%
27   3.40%
85   3.40%
14   0.00%
34   0.00%
84   -0.80%
68   -1.80%
28   -2.00%
72   -2.80%
73   -3.00%
40   -4.00%
60   -4.00%
10   -4.20%
54   -7.20%
91   -7.40%
61   -9.80%
99   -10.20%
88   -11.80%
26   -12.00%
16   -13.40%
30   -14.40%
33   -15.20%
20   -16.20%
96   -16.20%
64   -16.80%
81   -16.80%
18   -18.20%
58   -18.60%
59   -19.40%
17   -21.00%
98   -21.20%
29   -21.60%
7   -22.20%
55   -22.40%
78   -22.40%
82   -23.40%
22   -24.20%
25   -24.40%
66   -24.40%
8   -24.60%
24   -25.40%
56   -28.00%
19   -28.20%
9   -29.20%
15   -31.80%
23   -31.80%
65   -35.60%
6   -36.00%
4   -39.40%
97   -40.20%
5   -40.40%
1   -48.40%
3   -50.40%

[Nyvin]

Even if a died-down version of this map is released it would be a severe blow to VA Republicans, if not a death blow.

[Devils30]

Ahead of special session, anti-gerrymandering group @1VA2021 announces new, bipartisan commission to craft constitutional amendment for 2019.

Includes constitutional scholar A.E. Dick Howard, former Dem leader Ward Armstrong and Ken Cuccinelli and others

The Democrats should reject a commission. It is highly probable they win the legislature in 2019 and can easily take advantage.

[junior chįmp]

Even if a died-down version of this map is released it would be a severe blow to VA Republicans, if not a death blow.

Hello darkness my old friend, its the VAGOP and Ive come to talk to you again

[UncleSam]

The VA GOP will be losing all influence even under the current maps soon enough, and once that happens Democrats will draw the lines in 2020 and the state will be gone for the GOP forever. It’s basically going to become another Maryland soon.

[windjammer]

Ahead of special session, anti-gerrymandering group @1VA2021 announces new, bipartisan commission to craft constitutional amendment for 2019.

Includes constitutional scholar A.E. Dick Howard, former Dem leader Ward Armstrong and Ken Cuccinelli and others

The Democrats should reject a commission. It is highly probable they win the legislature in 2019 and can easily take advantage.

I just read their plan, that you can find there: http://leg1.state.va.us/cgi-bin/legp504.exe?151+ful+SJ284S1

Basically a 7 members commission:
-One appointed by the Speaker of the House
-One appointed by the President Pro Tempore
-One appointed by the minority leader of the state senate
-One appointed by the minority leader of the state house
-The Auditor of Public Accounts (an office that is appointed by the governor)
-the State Inspector General (an office appointed by the governor)
-the Executive Director of the Virginia State Bar


It would need to follow some criteria: contiguous and compact territories etc etc

In order to be approved: it would need to get 5 votes and at least 1 from each party. In case it is impossible to have the 5 votes: the 2 plans that would have got the most votes would be sent to the Virginia Supreme Court and they would decided which one to implement.


So basically: THIS IS A SCAM PLAN!!!!!
1) Elected officials would still have big influence as they appoint 4 members and it's them who who appoint all the members of the Virginia Supreme Court.

2) Virginia republicans could literally sabotage it. They refuse to pass any of these plans and in the end 2 plans pass: a) one supported by the 2 republicans 2) one adopted by the 5 other members.

The VA supreme court would then decide to pick the republican plan as the VA supreme court is majority republican appointed.

[Zaybay]

Ahead of special session, anti-gerrymandering group @1VA2021 announces new, bipartisan commission to craft constitutional amendment for 2019.

Includes constitutional scholar A.E. Dick Howard, former Dem leader Ward Armstrong and Ken Cuccinelli and others

The Democrats should reject a commission. It is highly probable they win the legislature in 2019 and can easily take advantage.

I just read their plan, that you can find there: http://leg1.state.va.us/cgi-bin/legp504.exe?151+ful+SJ284S1

Basically a 7 members commission:
-One appointed by the Speaker of the House
-One appointed by the President Pro Tempore
-One appointed by the minority leader of the state senate
-One appointed by the minority leader of the state house
-The Auditor of Public Accounts (an office that is appointed by the governor)
-the State Inspector General (an office appointed by the governor)
-the Executive Director of the Virginia State Bar


It would need to follow some criteria: contiguous and compact territories etc etc

In order to be approved: it would need to get 5 votes and at least 1 from each party. In case it is impossible to have the 5 votes: the 2 plans that would have got the most votes would be sent to the Virginia Supreme Court and they would decided which one to implement.


So basically: THIS IS A SCAM PLAN!!!!!
1) Elected officials would still have big influence as they appoint 4 members and it's them who who appoint all the members of the Virginia Supreme Court.

2) Virginia republicans could literally sabotage it. They refuse to pass any of these plans and in the end 2 plans pass: a) one supported by the 2 republicans 2) one adopted by the 5 other members.

The VA supreme court would then decided to pick the republican plan as the VA supreme court is majority republican appointed.

Hopefully, the Ds can see the way the wind is blowing and veto the proposition.

[Nyvin]

Ahead of special session, anti-gerrymandering group @1VA2021 announces new, bipartisan commission to craft constitutional amendment for 2019.

Includes constitutional scholar A.E. Dick Howard, former Dem leader Ward Armstrong and Ken Cuccinelli and others

The Democrats should reject a commission. It is highly probable they win the legislature in 2019 and can easily take advantage.

I just read their plan, that you can find there: http://leg1.state.va.us/cgi-bin/legp504.exe?151+ful+SJ284S1

Basically a 7 members commission:
-One appointed by the Speaker of the House
-One appointed by the President Pro Tempore
-One appointed by the minority leader of the state senate
-One appointed by the minority leader of the state house
-The Auditor of Public Accounts (an office that is appointed by the governor)
-the State Inspector General (an office appointed by the governor)
-the Executive Director of the Virginia State Bar


It would need to follow some criteria: contiguous and compact territories etc etc

In order to be approved: it would need to get 5 votes and at least 1 from each party. In case it is impossible to have the 5 votes: the 2 plans that would have got the most votes would be sent to the Virginia Supreme Court and they would decided which one to implement.


So basically: THIS IS A SCAM PLAN!!!!!
1) Elected officials would still have big influence as they appoint 4 members and it's them who who appoint all the members of the Virginia Supreme Court.

2) Virginia republicans could literally sabotage it. They refuse to pass any of these plans and in the end 2 plans pass: a) one supported by the 2 republicans 2) one adopted by the 5 other members.

The VA supreme court would then decide to pick the republican plan as the VA supreme court is majority republican appointed.

There is absolutely zero incentive for VA dems to agree to this,  especially with a new House map potentially coming down the line.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1035273481087266816

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1035273481087266816

Woohoo!

[Virginiá]

If Democrats take over and they still really want to do a commission of sorts, they can do a lot better than the proposed commission posted above. That commission seems to have a backdoor for Republicans to get their plans implemented for the 2020s via a favorable state Supreme Court.

Any commission that is implemented should never allow Republicans to craft their own plan and get it into a situation where there is a 50/50 shot it is picked. That is bonkers!

[Nyvin]

If Democrats take over and they still really want to do a commission of sorts, they can do a lot better than the proposed commission posted above. That commission seems to have a backdoor for Republicans to get their plans implemented for the 2020s via a favorable state Supreme Court.

Any commission that is implemented should never allow Republicans to craft their own plan and get it into a situation where there is a 50/50 shot it is picked. That is bonkers!

It wouldn't even be 50/50...all the Republicans would do is deadlock the commission by refusing to give their 1 vote that's needed (even if the Dems have 5 vote otherwise) and then send the two plans to the State Supreme Court, which as Republican controlled would go to pick the Republican plan.   It's a scam to get Republican drawn maps without having control of the legislature.

The State Supreme Court seats aren't up until 2022, at least the ones that would flip control.

[Virginiá]

Yeah, good point Nyvin. Although like you were kind of getting at, it's not guaranteed forever. It could actually turn into a Dem-favoring system in the future, assuming Republicans are unable to continue electing partisan justices with impunity in the 2020s due to the difficulty in locking in a majority with a shrinking base of voters.

Anyway, I'm still not convinced VA Democrats will pass any kind of commission. All it takes is one chamber of the legislature to decide they don't want to do that, and this issue isn't exactly something that will drive a ton of effort on the part of Democratic lawmakers.

[henster]

If Democrats take over and they still really want to do a commission of sorts, they can do a lot better than the proposed commission posted above. That commission seems to have a backdoor for Republicans to get their plans implemented for the 2020s via a favorable state Supreme Court.

Any commission that is implemented should never allow Republicans to craft their own plan and get it into a situation where there is a 50/50 shot it is picked. That is bonkers!

It wouldn't even be 50/50...all the Republicans would do is deadlock the commission by refusing to give their 1 vote that's needed (even if the Dems have 5 vote otherwise) and then send the two plans to the State Supreme Court, which as Republican controlled would go to pick the Republican plan.   It's a scam to get Republican drawn maps without having control of the legislature.

The State Supreme Court seats aren't up until 2022, at least the ones that would flip control.

Usually in states with commissions if they fail to agree to a plan it usually ends up in the courts hands. I don't think its nefarious or anything but there aren't many non-partisan options when a commission fails.

[Virginiá]

Usually in states with commissions if they fail to agree to a plan it usually ends up in the courts hands. I don't think its nefarious or anything but there aren't many non-partisan options when a commission fails.

True, but this is more of a concern for "bipartisan" commissions, particularly ones where each side crafts their own gerrymandered map (as rigged as they can get it within the rules, at least). It'd be different if the judges themselves brought on an objective special master who proceeds to draw an actual fair map, vs choosing from one of two partisan maps. Things usually work out fairly when judges have to redraw it themselves.

I don't even know why they are putting together reform working groups anyway. This isn't a complicated problem, and it's already been solved more or less in both in theory and in practice. This proposal just shows that despite lawmakers constant attempts to minimize the importance of redistricting, it is incredibly important to them and something they just can't let go of, no matter what the situation is. It usually has to be ripped from their cold, greedy hands by voter initiative.

[Virginiá]

Virginia Republicans have proposed a map apparently:

‘Race-blind’ Va. political map offered to replace one deemed racial gerrymander

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/race-blind-va-political-map-offered-to-replace-one-deemed-racial-gerrymander/2018/09/18/0c46b492-bb70-11e8-a8aa-860695e7f3fc_story.html

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http://redistricting.dls.virginia.gov/2010/RedistrictingPlans.aspx#43



This goes into it a little more:

https://pilotonline.com/news/government/politics/virginia/article_deaaffc6-bb8c-11e8-97e2-bfa3d1443d78.html

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I'll leave it someone else to investigate more, but based on the quoted text, it seems like they are trying to use this redraw as an opportunity to shore up vulnerable incumbents ahead of 2019's election.