FL-27: Hurricane Donna to hit Miami next Tuesday

[Jeppe]

We have internal polls from all 3 of the major candidates, and they all agree on one thing: Donna Shalala is ahead by double digits.

Shalala’s internal
Shalala - 36%
Davidson - 18%
Haggman - 10%
Rosen-Gonzales - 9%

Richardson’s internal
Shalala - 32%
Davidson - 20%
Haggman - 9%
Rosen-Gonzales - 7%

Haggman’s internal
Shalala - 26%
Haggman - 16%
Davidson - 15%
Rosen-Gonzales - 11%

Interestingly, the polls are in reverse chronological order, so Shalala’s numbers have gone from 26% to 38% across these 3 polls. Her opponents have been mired in the teens in all 3 polls. Her lead has gone from +10 to +12 to +18.

[Politician]

Likely D->Lean D.

I hope Davidson wins, he's the best candidate running in this district.

[Jeppe]

I hope Shalala stays in Congress for 20 years just to spite her haters. That’d be hilarious.

[SATW]

I hope Shalala stays in Congress for 20 years just to spite her haters. That’d be hilarious.

her haters have reasons to hate her considering she's awful

[Zaybay]

I would not use internals as an indicator for how this race is going, especially from different candidates trying to tell a different narrative. Davidson's show a 10% increase in Davidson, Haggman shows him leading Davidson, and Shalala shows her leading. And internals this year for primaries have not had the best track record. tilt Shalalalala, but Richardson could win this.

[Zaybay]

I hope Shalala stays in Congress for 20 years just to spite her haters. That’d be hilarious.

Im starting to notice a trend in who you support/endorse.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I don't want Shalala.

[Jeppe]

I would not use internals as an indicator for how this race is going, especially from different candidates trying to tell a different narrative. Davidson's show a 10% increase in Davidson, Haggman shows him leading Davidson, and Shalala shows her leading. And internals this year for primaries have not had the best track record. tilt Shalalalala, but Richardson could win this.

All of them show Shalala leading, outside of their margin of errors.

Honestly, Shalala entering was probably a net positive for Democrats in Miami-Dade. It made Javier Rodriguez drop out, so that we wouldn’t have had to defend a difficult State Senate seat, and it forced Mary Barzee Florez out of the race and into FL-25, a race where we didn’t have a legitimate candidate to contest the seat.

Kristen Rosen-Gonzales acknowled that Shalala would win the moment she entered the race, so I’m not sure why she stuck around in the race, especially considering that she had to resign her current position to run for FL-27, but I guess some people just want to hope for a miracle.

[Zaybay]

I would not use internals as an indicator for how this race is going, especially from different candidates trying to tell a different narrative. Davidson's show a 10% increase in Davidson, Haggman shows him leading Davidson, and Shalala shows her leading. And internals this year for primaries have not had the best track record. tilt Shalalalala, but Richardson could win this.

All of them show Shalala leading, outside of their margin of errors.

Honestly, Shalala entering was probably net positive. It made Javier Rodriguez drop out, so that we wouldn’t have had to defend a difficult State Senate seat, and it forced Mary Barzee Florez out of the race and into FL-25, a race where we didn’t have a legitimate candidate to contest the seat.

Kristen Rosen-Gonzales acknowled that Shalala would win the moment she entered the race, so I’m not sure why she stuck around in the race, especially considering that she had to resign her current position to run for FL-27, but I guess some people just want to hope for a miracle.

Pawlenty, Crowley, Jenkins, Welder, among others were also leading in most polling and their internals, and still lost. Internals are generally poor indicators of a race,  as they are released to peddle a story to voters and donners, especially since the pollster used here is a rather poor one. I still think Donna has the advantage, but Richardson could easily win.

Also, she is not a net-positive. Saving a state senate seat doesnt make up for the fact that she is a terrible candidate.

[Mike Thick]

What exactly is so bad about Shalala?

[Jeppe]

I would not use internals as an indicator for how this race is going, especially from different candidates trying to tell a different narrative. Davidson's show a 10% increase in Davidson, Haggman shows him leading Davidson, and Shalala shows her leading. And internals this year for primaries have not had the best track record. tilt Shalalalala, but Richardson could win this.

All of them show Shalala leading, outside of their margin of errors.

Honestly, Shalala entering was probably net positive. It made Javier Rodriguez drop out, so that we wouldn’t have had to defend a difficult State Senate seat, and it forced Mary Barzee Florez out of the race and into FL-25, a race where we didn’t have a legitimate candidate to contest the seat.

Kristen Rosen-Gonzales acknowled that Shalala would win the moment she entered the race, so I’m not sure why she stuck around in the race, especially considering that she had to resign her current position to run for FL-27, but I guess some people just want to hope for a miracle.

Pawlenty, Crowley, Jenkins, among others were also leading in most polling and their internals, and that didnt stop them from losing. Internals are generally poor indicators of a race, especially since the pollster is rather poor. I still think Donna has the advantage, but Richardson could easily win.

Also, she is not a net-positive. Saving a state senate seat doesnt make up for the fact that she is a terrible candidate.

Shalala’s well-liked, well-known, and well-funded in the area where she’s actually running in. She may not be popular among random internet forum pundits, but she’s obviously doing well with the people who’ll actually fill out a ballot with her name on it, since she’s running away with the Democratic nomination.

[Jeppe]

What exactly is so bad about Shalala?

She’s a moderate old woman with strong ties to the Clintons (former head of Clinton Foundation & she was in Clinton’s cabinet in the 90’s). So she makes Berniecrats and Republicans alike furious.

[Xing]

Not the best candidate Democrats could pick, but she'd almost certainly win the general. Likely D, if not Safe D.

[Zaybay]

What exactly is so bad about Shalala?

She is an old moderate woman who has deep ties to the Clintons, and has 0 charisma, personality, and is generally the weakest and worst candidate out of all of them. When both progressives like me and Blue Dogs like Bagel hate a candidate, then there is something really wrong.

Edit: The incident that Andrew points out is also a factor in why no one likes her.

[Zaybay]

I would not use internals as an indicator for how this race is going, especially from different candidates trying to tell a different narrative. Davidson's show a 10% increase in Davidson, Haggman shows him leading Davidson, and Shalala shows her leading. And internals this year for primaries have not had the best track record. tilt Shalalalala, but Richardson could win this.

All of them show Shalala leading, outside of their margin of errors.

Honestly, Shalala entering was probably net positive. It made Javier Rodriguez drop out, so that we wouldn’t have had to defend a difficult State Senate seat, and it forced Mary Barzee Florez out of the race and into FL-25, a race where we didn’t have a legitimate candidate to contest the seat.

Kristen Rosen-Gonzales acknowled that Shalala would win the moment she entered the race, so I’m not sure why she stuck around in the race, especially considering that she had to resign her current position to run for FL-27, but I guess some people just want to hope for a miracle.

Pawlenty, Crowley, Jenkins, among others were also leading in most polling and their internals, and that didnt stop them from losing. Internals are generally poor indicators of a race, especially since the pollster is rather poor. I still think Donna has the advantage, but Richardson could easily win.

Also, she is not a net-positive. Saving a state senate seat doesnt make up for the fact that she is a terrible candidate.

Shalala’s well-liked, well-known, and well-funded in the area where she’s actually running in. She may not be popular among random internet forum pundits, but she’s obviously doing well with the people who’ll actually fill out a ballot with her name on it, since she’s running away with the Democratic nomination.

30%in her own internal is not "running away" with the nomination, and if we are talking money, or charisma, then Richardson blows her out of the water. Of course, someone with such name rec as Shalala would be in the lead, theoretically.
And I would not say primary voters have made the best decisions this year.

[Donerail]

Shalala's in the running for worst Democratic candidates this cycle. I fully expect her to win.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What exactly is so bad about Shalala?

She's pure f[inks]ing EVIL. A great summary:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Jeppe can't even explain how how this vile f[inks]ing piece of trash is progressive if you notice.

[Zaybay]

What exactly is so bad about Shalala?

She's pure f[inks]ing EVIL. A great summary:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Jeppe can't even explain how how this vile f[inks]ing piece of trash is progressive if you notice.

well, looking at Jeppe's endorsements, progressive-ness doesnt seem to be the main factor.

[Jeppe]

What exactly is so bad about Shalala?

She's pure f[inks]ing EVIL. A great summary:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Jeppe can't even explain how how this vile f[inks]ing piece of trash is progressive if you notice.

I literally never said she was progressive. I even said the opposite & said she was a moderate.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Then why do you support such an evil person?

[Jeppe]

Then why do you support such an evil person?

I don’t think there’s merit to completely capitulating to unions. If you’re the leader of a large organization that has a highly unionized workforce, sometimes you have to draw a line & decide, no, we can’t increase wages anymore without having to cut spending on things like more faculty hidings or renovations. It’s a balance, and calling everybody who had to quarrel with unions in the past is completely counterproductive, because it’s their job to make sure that the university thrives.

That’s not to say that I support union-busting, because I don’t, I think they have a very important place in the workforce, but demonizing somebody simply because they had to make a tough choice that pissed off unions, without taking into consideration other pressing factors, like other financial problems facing the university, is a dangerous simplification.

I don’t think politics is a zero sum game where the two only choices are “will you say yes to anything a union asks for” or “unions shouldn’t exist at all”. There’s a middle ground, my ideology leans much closer to the former, but I definitely don’t think that anybody who ever said no to a union is a completely demon, because context matters.

[Antonio the Sixth]

UGH, she seems terrible.

[Jeppe]

Ed Case voted with Republicans on almost every single vote relating to taxes as a Congressman
- “You know, maybe he’s not so bad after all”

Shalala had a dispute with a union as president of a large university
- “She’s a literal demon”

[Zaybay]

Just be honest Jeppe, the reason you support Donna is the same reason you support Nixon, Pressley, Graham and Riamondo.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Its not just the union busting stuff as noted. She also sold endangered land to build a f[inks]ing Wal-Mart and has donated to Republicans.

And I don't think anyone here actually likes Ed Case. Saying that he's better than a homophobe, a private prison lobbyist homophobe and a Republican is not great praise.