FL-27: Hurricane Donna to hit Miami next Tuesday

[Yellowhammer]

I really hope Salazar can pull out an upset over Shalala.
Seeing Curbelo's surprisingly poor performance thus far in the NYT poll doesn't inspire much confidence though. I can't imagine Salazar winning while Curbelo loses. Possible I guess, but extremely unlikely.

[IceSpear]

I am endorsing the cute lady because i like her policies

Donna Shalala thanks you for your endorsement.



Everyone knows GGILFs are all the rage these days, GILFs are so last year.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I really hope Salazar can pull out an upset over Shalala.
Seeing Curbelo's surprisingly poor performance thus far in the NYT poll doesn't inspire much confidence though. I can't imagine Salazar winning while Curbelo loses. Possible I guess, but extremely unlikely.

Probably more likely that Shalala and Curbelo both lose than for them to both win at this point.

[ON Progressive]

I really hope Salazar can pull out an upset over Shalala.
Seeing Curbelo's surprisingly poor performance thus far in the NYT poll doesn't inspire much confidence though. I can't imagine Salazar winning while Curbelo loses. Possible I guess, but extremely unlikely.

Probably more likely that Shalala and Curbelo both lose than for them to both win at this point.

LOL. Shalala will very likely not lose, especially if Curbelo is. FL-27 is quite significantly more Democratic than FL-26, and FL-27 is an open seat.

[IceSpear]

T J Cox lives in a District 2 Districts to the North of the District he is trying to represent.

Randy Bryce is a strong candidate, and IceSpear trolling on the topic is very annoying.

He's deeply flawed, but he's also a strong fundraiser and inspires the activist base. I feel as if his scandals are overrated, remember Dubya was arrested for DUI.

If it wasn't for Dubya's DUI he would've won comfortably, not lost the popular vote and almost lost the electoral college*.

And Solid, you unironically thought that Paul Nehlen would get a higher percentage of the vote than Cathy Myers, so forgive me if I don't consult you as an expert on this race (or anything, for that matter.)

*potentially actually did

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I really hope Salazar can pull out an upset over Shalala.
Seeing Curbelo's surprisingly poor performance thus far in the NYT poll doesn't inspire much confidence though. I can't imagine Salazar winning while Curbelo loses. Possible I guess, but extremely unlikely.

Probably more likely that Shalala and Curbelo both lose than for them to both win at this point.

LOL. Shalala will very likely not lose, especially if Curbelo is. FL-27 is quite significantly more Democratic than FL-26, and FL-27 is an open seat.

FL-26 is D+06
FL-27 is D+05

Also, Both sides have strong candidates running in FL-26, while only Republicans have a strong candidate running in FL-27.

[ON Progressive]

I really hope Salazar can pull out an upset over Shalala.
Seeing Curbelo's surprisingly poor performance thus far in the NYT poll doesn't inspire much confidence though. I can't imagine Salazar winning while Curbelo loses. Possible I guess, but extremely unlikely.

Probably more likely that Shalala and Curbelo both lose than for them to both win at this point.

LOL. Shalala will very likely not lose, especially if Curbelo is. FL-27 is quite significantly more Democratic than FL-26, and FL-27 is an open seat.

FL-26 is D+06
FL-27 is D+05

Also, Both sides have strong candidates running in FL-26, while only Republicans have a strong candidate running in FL-27.

FL-27 went Hillary 59-39. FL-26 went Hillary 57-41. So I guess it's not significant, but 4 points more pro-Hillary does make a difference.

Also, while Shalala isn't a great candidate, that doesn't really matter in a Hillary +20 district.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I really hope Salazar can pull out an upset over Shalala.
Seeing Curbelo's surprisingly poor performance thus far in the NYT poll doesn't inspire much confidence though. I can't imagine Salazar winning while Curbelo loses. Possible I guess, but extremely unlikely.

Probably more likely that Shalala and Curbelo both lose than for them to both win at this point.

LOL. Shalala will very likely not lose, especially if Curbelo is. FL-27 is quite significantly more Democratic than FL-26, and FL-27 is an open seat.

FL-26 is D+06
FL-27 is D+05

Also, Both sides have strong candidates running in FL-26, while only Republicans have a strong candidate running in FL-27.

FL-27 went Hillary 59-39. FL-26 went Hillary 57-41. So I guess it's not significant, but 4 points more pro-Hillary does make a difference.

Also, while Shalala isn't a great candidate, that doesn't really matter in a Hillary +20 district.

Also, Shalala is a very bad candidate. About as bad as Tim Burns.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1042374263745990662?s=19

Considering Shalala actually donated to the previous GOP incumbent you'd almost think she's a stealth Republican trying to hold them the seat.

[Xing]

I wish the DCCC wouldn't waste any money helping Shalala. Considering the lean of the district, she shouldn't need any help, and the fact that she could just proves how awful she is, and that Democrats should spend resources on candidate who are worth it.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Indeed. I'd triage her immediately.

[Strudelcutie4427]

Maybe change this thread to Hurricane Maria. Cuz she’s surging

[Politician]

I wish the DCCC wouldn't waste any money helping Shalala. Considering the lean of the district, she shouldn't need any help, and the fact that she could just proves how awful she is, and that Democrats should spend resources on candidate who are worth it.

Besides even if Salazar wins she'll lose in 2020 anyway.

[MAINEiac4434]

I wish the DCCC wouldn't waste any money helping Shalala. Considering the lean of the district, she shouldn't need any help, and the fact that she could just proves how awful she is, and that Democrats should spend resources on candidate who are worth it.

Besides even if Salazar wins she'll lose in 2020 anyway.

Hopefully we'll get a halfway decent candidate in 2020 too.

[IceSpear]

Indeed. I'd triage her immediately.

She should be triaged because she'd win easily even if she had no campaign whatsoever.

[Blair]

I still don't get the logic of running a 79 year old in an open seat?

I mean I get it in states like Tennessee, or if it's an ex-congress member, but Shalala seems like the absolute worse type of candidate- she can't speak spanish, she's never ran a campaign before, and she barely won the primary.   

Besides the political article made me even more angry when I found out that her opponent isn't some moronic cretin, but actually seems like someone who A.) Could win B.) Could hold the seat for a long time.

 

[Politician]

Indeed. I'd triage her immediately.

She should be triaged because she'd win easily even if she had no campaign whatsoever.

Just like Senator Roy Moore? But this is from the guy who thinks Randy Bryce is 100% DOA and will lose by 15 points.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Even that Haggman guy who supported abolishing ICE would still do better then Shalala. She's that pathetic!

[IceSpear]

Indeed. I'd triage her immediately.

She should be triaged because she'd win easily even if she had no campaign whatsoever.

Just like Senator Roy Moore? But this is from the guy who thinks Randy Bryce is 100% DOA and will lose by 15 points.

That literally would have been true for Moore as well if he wasn't a pedophile. And you're not helping your case with the Iron Deadbeat Jailbird comparison. The fact that some people entertain the idea of Shalala losing while Bryce simultaneously wins is downright hilarious.

[Politician]

Indeed. I'd triage her immediately.

She should be triaged because she'd win easily even if she had no campaign whatsoever.

Just like Senator Roy Moore? But this is from the guy who thinks Randy Bryce is 100% DOA and will lose by 15 points.

That literally would have been true for Moore as well if he wasn't a pedophile. And you're not helping your case with the Iron Deadbeat Jailbird comparison. The fact that some people entertain the idea of Shalala losing while Bryce simultaneously wins is downright hilarious.

Much like how under no scenario could Feingold lose while Reid won...

Races don't always stay the same. WI-01 could rapidly become Safe R, or it could become a Tossup. Who knows. In FL-27, Salazar clearly has the momentum and a credible poll shows her down only 4.

As for Moore, he was only leading Jones by single digits before the allegations. Jones could have won even without them.

Also interesting you don't believe candidate quality matters in FL-27 but Bryce's flaws somehow doom him to defeat.

[IceSpear]

Indeed. I'd triage her immediately.

She should be triaged because she'd win easily even if she had no campaign whatsoever.

Just like Senator Roy Moore? But this is from the guy who thinks Randy Bryce is 100% DOA and will lose by 15 points.

That literally would have been true for Moore as well if he wasn't a pedophile. And you're not helping your case with the Iron Deadbeat Jailbird comparison. The fact that some people entertain the idea of Shalala losing while Bryce simultaneously wins is downright hilarious.

Much like how under no scenario could Feingold lose while Reid won...

Races don't always stay the same. WI-01 could rapidly become Safe R, or it could become a Tossup. Who knows. In FL-27, Salazar clearly has the momentum and a credible poll shows her down only 4.

As for Moore, he was only leading Jones by single digits before the allegations. Jones could have won even without them.

Also interesting you don't believe candidate quality matters in FL-27 but Bryce's flaws somehow doom him to defeat.

Uh, Moore lost by 1 point even as a pedophile. He obviously would have won if he wasn't a pedophile. Unless you're suggesting being a pedophile helped him? Or that it had no effect, which would contradict the rest of your post, as it would be perhaps the most extreme example ever of candidate quality being completely irrelevant.

Remind me again which of Shalala's problems are as bad as multiple arrests, multiple DUIs, multiple delinquent child support payments, and your own brother starring in an against you. Any Democrat would've had an uphill fight in WI-01 due to the fundamentals of the district, Jailbird's problems just took it from long shot to no shot. And yeah, maybe Shalala could underperform what you'd "expect" a Dem to win this seat by, but there's no way in hell she's anywhere near bad enough to actually lose a Clinton +20 open seat during a Dem wave year.

[Politician]

Indeed. I'd triage her immediately.

She should be triaged because she'd win easily even if she had no campaign whatsoever.

Just like Senator Roy Moore? But this is from the guy who thinks Randy Bryce is 100% DOA and will lose by 15 points.

That literally would have been true for Moore as well if he wasn't a pedophile. And you're not helping your case with the Iron Deadbeat Jailbird comparison. The fact that some people entertain the idea of Shalala losing while Bryce simultaneously wins is downright hilarious.

Much like how under no scenario could Feingold lose while Reid won...

Races don't always stay the same. WI-01 could rapidly become Safe R, or it could become a Tossup. Who knows. In FL-27, Salazar clearly has the momentum and a credible poll shows her down only 4.

As for Moore, he was only leading Jones by single digits before the allegations. Jones could have won even without them.

Also interesting you don't believe candidate quality matters in FL-27 but Bryce's flaws somehow doom him to defeat.

Uh, Moore lost by 1 point even as a pedophile. He obviously would have won if he wasn't a pedophile. Unless you're suggesting being a pedophile helped him? Or that it had no effect, which would contradict the rest of your post, as it would be perhaps the most extreme example ever of candidate quality being completely irrelevant.

Remind me again which of Shalala's problems are as bad as multiple arrests, multiple DUIs, multiple delinquent child support payments, and your own brother starring in an against you. Any Democrat would've had an uphill fight in WI-01 due to the fundamentals of the district, Jailbird's problems just took it from long shot to no shot. And yeah, maybe Shalala could underperform what you'd "expect" a Dem to win this seat by, but there's no way in hell she's anywhere near bad enough to actually lose a Clinton +20 open seat during a Dem wave year.

Polling exists, you know. Shalala or Steil could easily lose their lead.

Also, no Democrat cares about Bryce being arrested for DUI or having his brother criticize him. Democrats do care about being completely out of touch with your constituents.

Roy Moore probably wouldn't have lost without the allegations, but his win would have been narrow.

[Yellowhammer]

Indeed. I'd triage her immediately.

She should be triaged because she'd win easily even if she had no campaign whatsoever.

Just like Senator Roy Moore? But this is from the guy who thinks Randy Bryce is 100% DOA and will lose by 15 points.

That literally would have been true for Moore as well if he wasn't a pedophile. And you're not helping your case with the Iron Deadbeat Jailbird comparison. The fact that some people entertain the idea of Shalala losing while Bryce simultaneously wins is downright hilarious.

Much like how under no scenario could Feingold lose while Reid won...

Races don't always stay the same. WI-01 could rapidly become Safe R, or it could become a Tossup. Who knows. In FL-27, Salazar clearly has the momentum and a credible poll shows her down only 4.

As for Moore, he was only leading Jones by single digits before the allegations. Jones could have won even without them.

Also interesting you don't believe candidate quality matters in FL-27 but Bryce's flaws somehow doom him to defeat.

Uh, Moore lost by 1 point even as a pedophile. He obviously would have won if he wasn't a pedophile. Unless you're suggesting being a pedophile helped him? Or that it had no effect, which would contradict the rest of your post, as it would be perhaps the most extreme example ever of candidate quality being completely irrelevant.

Remind me again which of Shalala's problems are as bad as multiple arrests, multiple DUIs, multiple delinquent child support payments, and your own brother starring in an against you. Any Democrat would've had an uphill fight in WI-01 due to the fundamentals of the district, Jailbird's problems just took it from long shot to no shot. And yeah, maybe Shalala could underperform what you'd "expect" a Dem to win this seat by, but there's no way in hell she's anywhere near bad enough to actually lose a Clinton +20 open seat during a Dem wave year.

Polling exists, you know. Shalala or Steil could easily lose their lead.

Also, no Democrat cares about Bryce being arrested for DUI or having his brother criticize him. Democrats do care about being completely out of touch with your constituents.

Roy Moore probably wouldn't have lost without the allegations, but his win would have been narrow.

Only if you classify winning by 10-15 points as "narrow."

[IceSpear]

Indeed. I'd triage her immediately.

She should be triaged because she'd win easily even if she had no campaign whatsoever.

Just like Senator Roy Moore? But this is from the guy who thinks Randy Bryce is 100% DOA and will lose by 15 points.

That literally would have been true for Moore as well if he wasn't a pedophile. And you're not helping your case with the Iron Deadbeat Jailbird comparison. The fact that some people entertain the idea of Shalala losing while Bryce simultaneously wins is downright hilarious.

Much like how under no scenario could Feingold lose while Reid won...

Races don't always stay the same. WI-01 could rapidly become Safe R, or it could become a Tossup. Who knows. In FL-27, Salazar clearly has the momentum and a credible poll shows her down only 4.

As for Moore, he was only leading Jones by single digits before the allegations. Jones could have won even without them.

Also interesting you don't believe candidate quality matters in FL-27 but Bryce's flaws somehow doom him to defeat.

Uh, Moore lost by 1 point even as a pedophile. He obviously would have won if he wasn't a pedophile. Unless you're suggesting being a pedophile helped him? Or that it had no effect, which would contradict the rest of your post, as it would be perhaps the most extreme example ever of candidate quality being completely irrelevant.

Remind me again which of Shalala's problems are as bad as multiple arrests, multiple DUIs, multiple delinquent child support payments, and your own brother starring in an against you. Any Democrat would've had an uphill fight in WI-01 due to the fundamentals of the district, Jailbird's problems just took it from long shot to no shot. And yeah, maybe Shalala could underperform what you'd "expect" a Dem to win this seat by, but there's no way in hell she's anywhere near bad enough to actually lose a Clinton +20 open seat during a Dem wave year.

Polling exists, you know. Shalala or Steil could easily lose their lead.

Also, no Democrat cares about Bryce being arrested for DUI or having his brother criticize him. Democrats do care about being completely out of touch with your constituents.

Roy Moore probably wouldn't have lost without the allegations, but his win would have been narrow.

So voters in WI-01 don't care about Iron Deadbeat Jailbird's arrests, DUIs, delinquent child support payments, and getting slammed by his own brother, but voters in FL-27 care about Shalala being old and not speaking Spanish. Sounds legit.

Also, these races don't happen in a vacuum. House races especially tend to get caught up in the political environment. If Dems are losing FL-27, I highly doubt they're having a good night at all, much less one good enough to carry WI-01.

[Virginiá]

Only if you classify winning by 10-15 points as "narrow."

He only won his Supreme Court election in 2012 by like what, 2 points or so? And that was with Obama at the top of the ticket. He was a weak and controversial candidate all around. I think it's possible he would have had another narrow win, all things considered. At the very least there seems to be more reason to believe that than a 10-15 point win.