Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[MT Treasurer]

It’s really the suburbs/exurbs where Barrow is underperforming badly. Cobb and Gwinnett in particular, but also Henry, Newton, Douglas, Forsyth, etc.

[Calthrina950]

Ouch, Raffensperger wins the Cobb early vote.

I can't prove this of course, but I think Abrams sore loser shenanigans turned off a lot of voters and hurt Barrow.

I agree fully. Abrams should have conceded gracefully and pivoted her attention to helping Barrow with the runoff. Instead, her arrogance has helped to cost Democrats this race.

Can you stop being so moderate? It literally hurts.

I would call that hackish.

Cathrina isn't a hack. Whoever says that is the worst Atlas poster ever and is put on her ignore list.

*his

Landslide Lyndon continuing to lob out insults. And for the 1,000th time, I am not a woman!

That's a lot of transitions!

Is this meant to be some kind of mockery?

Landslide Lyndon continuing to lob out insults. And for the 1,000th time, I am not a woman!

You've literally said to me verbatim that you were a woman of color....... I can't.

I don't know how you got that. I have never told you such thing, and I even corrected you at one point. But I shouldn't expect anything more from a die-hard partisan such as yourself.

[Adam Griffin]

My non-Atlas prediction was 54-46 (I rounded on here to keep things simple), and it's increasingly looking like that's where it'll end up. Barrow is doing better in most heavily-white areas and non-ATL metro areas, but bombing most everywhere else.

[DataGuy]

As expected, it's narrowing quickly now that Fulton's votes are coming in. Within single digits now.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Barrow now at 45.4%, still a quarter of the vote outstanding. He's not going to win, but so much for Griff's prediction that Raff was going to win by 12 and IceSpear's doom and gloom. This is a decent performance, way better than the last run of this in 2008.

[Zaybay]

Hmm, may be closer than 9 points, it looks like. A lot of Fulton outstanding, and its 54-46(rounding). I think my prediction of 5 points might be on the money.

[Rookie Yinzer]

It’s really the suburbs/exurbs where Barrow is underperforming badly. Cobb and Gwinnett in particular, but also Henry, Newton, Douglas, Forsyth, etc.

The low propensity people of color that Abrams excited stayed home. Under-served communities are not going to turn out for "some dude" because he says he's better than the other guy. We've heard/seen it all before. People will call them morons and idiots who have no right to complain but that's their experience. But they won't get endless articles and diner interviews written about why they stayed home.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

My non-Atlas prediction was 54-46 (I rounded on here to keep things simple), and it's increasingly looking like that's where it'll end up. Barrow is doing better in most heavily-white areas and non-ATL metro areas, but bombing most everywhere else.

He actually might be doing better in Atlanta (he's doing better than Abrams so far in Fulton)? And he's doing better than Abrams in the black belt. DeKalb isn't gong too bad either.


Literally the only place he's doing worse is around Atlanta. For some reason, Cobb, Henry, etc. decided to hate Barrow.

[Adam Griffin]

Barrow now at 45.4%, still a quarter of the vote outstanding. He's not going to win, but so much for Griff's prediction that Raff was going to win by 12 and IceSpear's doom and gloom. This is a decent performance, way better than the last run of this in 2008.

I didn't say the GOP was going to win by 12: I said that the underperformance was 12 points in 2008 and that tonight's results could be close to that. I was on record in the prediction thread with a 55-45 (plus or minus a point) and my internal party projections were 54-46, for what it's worth.

[Podgy the Bear]

Barrow has done better in some areas (around Augusta for the most part).  Disappointingly, he didn't do all that well in the suburban and exurban counties around Atlanta tonight, but he has brought the overall state margin to 54-46 (and with plenty of Fulton and some of DeKalb left to report).

And rural north Georgia is effectively Florida's Collier/Lee County, The Villages and the Panhandle.   It's growing with retirees moving to Georgia.  This is the area that will continue to deliver large majorities to the Republicans.  For the Democrats to be very competitive in 2020, they will need to counter in the cities and repeat their earlier suburban Atlanta performances last month.

[Adam Griffin]

At any rate, the theme of tonight seems to be:

• Barrow is doing better than Abrams in virtually every urban area
• Barrow is bombing compared to Abrams in suburban areas
• Barrow is doing better/worse than Abrams in rural areas depending on how many minorities live there (the more minorities, the worse he's doing)

TL;DR: white suburbanites and rural blacks are the reason Dems are losing

[Pollster]

Looks like Barrow is going to end with a very respectable showing. More evidence that this state deserves genuine attention, organization, and investment going forward.

[Zaybay]

Looks like the runoff dropoff might just be 3-6 points this time, very good going forward.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

At any rate, the theme of tonight seems to be:

• Barrow is doing better than Abrams in virtually every urban area
• Barrow is bombing compared to Abrams in suburban areas
• Barrow is doing better/worse than Abrams in rural areas depending on how many minorities live there (the more minorities, the worse he's doing)

Again, he's doing better than Abrams in most of the black belt.

[Adam Griffin]

At any rate, the theme of tonight seems to be:

• Barrow is doing better than Abrams in virtually every urban area
• Barrow is bombing compared to Abrams in suburban areas
• Barrow is doing better/worse than Abrams in rural areas depending on how many minorities live there (the more minorities, the worse he's doing)

Again, he's doing better than Abrams in most of the black belt.

Sure, in areas with large concentrations of minorities (and the Black Belt deserves an exception) - but in areas that are substantially white majority (with some exceptions), he's generally doing better relative to Abrams in areas where the white share of the population is higher (say, 85%) than in areas where it's lower (65%).

[ON Progressive]

Those Cobb and Gwinnett numbers are terrible.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

At any rate, the theme of tonight seems to be:

• Barrow is doing better than Abrams in virtually every urban area
• Barrow is bombing compared to Abrams in suburban areas
• Barrow is doing better/worse than Abrams in rural areas depending on how many minorities live there (the more minorities, the worse he's doing)

Again, he's doing better than Abrams in most of the black belt.

Sure, in areas with large concentrations of minorities (and the Black Belt deserves an exception) - but in areas that are substantially white majority (with some exceptions), he's generally doing better relative to Abrams in areas where the white share of the population is higher (say, 85%) than in areas where it's lower (65%).

Ok but he's also doing better in the black belt than Abrams, so it's dumb to say Barrow is losing because of rural black people.

The blame seems to be among white subarbanites (and maybe black subarbanites) around Atlanta.

[Adam Griffin]

At any rate, the theme of tonight seems to be:

• Barrow is doing better than Abrams in virtually every urban area
• Barrow is bombing compared to Abrams in suburban areas
• Barrow is doing better/worse than Abrams in rural areas depending on how many minorities live there (the more minorities, the worse he's doing)

Again, he's doing better than Abrams in most of the black belt.

Sure, in areas with large concentrations of minorities (and the Black Belt deserves an exception) - but in areas that are substantially white majority (with some exceptions), he's generally doing better relative to Abrams in areas where the white share of the population is higher (say, 85%) than in areas where it's lower (65%).

Ok but he's also doing better in the black belt than Abrams, so it's dumb to say Barrow is losing because of rural black people.

The blame seems to be among white subarbanites (and maybe black subarbanites) around Atlanta.

Hardly anybody lives in the (rural) Black Belt, though: just because there are concentrations percentage-wise of black voters there (and of course I'm not including urban areas like Muscogee, Bibb and Richmond in that) doesn't mean that's where most black rural people live. There are far more black rural voters in the periphery and outside of the (rural) Black Belt than inside of it.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Barrow ended up winning Henry County... guess the remaining votes there were in the Dem strongholds. He only won it by 7 in comparison to Abrams' 15.

[Adam Griffin]

It's possible this tightens up to as little as a 4-point loss: only 9 counties left to report results but they're all big urban areas.

[IceSpear]

Barrow now at 45.4%, still a quarter of the vote outstanding. He's not going to win, but so much for Griff's prediction that Raff was going to win by 12 and IceSpear's doom and gloom. This is a decent performance, way better than the last run of this in 2008.

I didn't say the GOP was going to win by 12: I said that the underperformance was 12 points in 2008 and that tonight's results could be close to that. I was on record in the prediction thread with a 55-45 (plus or minus a point) and my internal party projections were 54-46, for what it's worth.

Wulfric's reading comprehension is about as good as his projections.

By the way, R+6-8 would still be an absolutely godawful result considering the general election result was R+0.4.

[Alabama_Indy10]

I’m sticking with my 54-46 prediction.

[Zaybay]

I’m sticking with my 54-46 prediction.

Looking unlikely, since all the vote left is from Atlanta

[Alabama_Indy10]

What’s going on with the public service commission race?

[MT Treasurer]

What’s going on with the public service commission race?

The Democrat currently has 45.61% as opposed to Barrow's 45.53%. Polarization and stuff.