Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[Adam Griffin]

I don't know if we should call this one yet tbh - the early vote in GA strongly favors Republicans.

Barrow is underperforming Abrams by quite large amounts virtually everywhere. The areas first to report are disproportionately the arena where he needed to do much better than Abrams

[MT Treasurer]

Barrow County:

78% Raffensperger (R)
22% Barrow (D)

[MT Treasurer]

Gwinnett:

54.4% Barrow (D)
45.6% Raffensperger (R)

Obviously not enough for Barrow if it holds.

[Bidenworth2020]

Gwinnett:

54.4% Barrow (D)
45.6% Raffensperger (R)

Obviously not enough for Barrow if it holds.

I think he will do slightly better with EDay votes,but ofc it wont be enough.

[Adam Griffin]

Based on these initial margins, we're on track for a similar underperformance relative to 2008 (in 2008, we underperformed the GE by 12 points). I could see us losing by 11-12, which would be close. At least I won't have to argue with people about how GA has changed and drop-off isn't a problem anymore!

[DataGuy]

More fully reported counties: Pulaski (Kemp +40.0%, Raffensperger +49.8%), Schley (Kemp +62.7%, Raffensperger +58.0%), and Miller (Kemp +56.2%, Raffensperger +67.4%).

Also Ben Hill (Kemp +28.1%, Raffensperger +24.8%) and Candler (Kemp +45.1%, Raffensperger +32.6%).

Adding Jeff Davis (Kemp +65.7%, Raffensperger +58.2%), Rabun (Kemp +61.2%, Raffensperger +54.8%), McDuffie (Kemp +21.5%, Raffensperger +28.4%), Early (Kemp +10.8%, Raffensperger +8.6%).

[DataGuy]

There are actually a few counties where Raffensperger is underperforming Kemp. Right now, underperformance for both candidates seems to be split about evenly.

[IceSpear]

Based on these initial margins, we're on track for a similar underperformance relative to 2008 (in 2008, we underperformed the GE by 12 points). I could see us losing by 11-12, which would be close. At least I won't have to argue with people about how GA has changed and drop-off isn't a problem anymore!

Unfortunately I bet you still will. Atlas is incapable of learning.

[Continential]

Raffensperger will win

[MT Treasurer]

I want to make sure there's no unknown incredible turnout in metro Atlanta that I missed, b/c otherwise this one's quite over and it will not be all that close.  Northern Rural Georgia is a real massacre - you'd think Martin's Barrow's name starts with an O A.

[History505]

Raffensperger doing very well in Georgia's northern rural counties that border TN and NC, he's in the 80% range in most of them.

[ON Progressive]

Raffensperger doing very well in Georgia's northern rural counties that border TN and NC, he's in the 80% range in most of them.

That's just the norm in those. Those are places that have voted R since Reconstruction.

[History505]

Raffensperger doing very well in Georgia's northern rural counties that border TN and NC, he's in the 80% range in most of them.

That's just the norm in those. Those are places that have voted R since Reconstruction.

I'm aware, but he's doing better than Kemp did in those counties so far by a little bit more.

[MT Treasurer]

Initial results show Raffensperger winning Cobb and Douglas, so yeah...

[bandg]

Ouch, Raffensperger wins the Cobb early vote.

I can't prove this of course, but I think Abrams sore loser shenanigans turned off a lot of voters and hurt Barrow.

[Zaybay]

Ouch, Raffensperger wins the Cobb early vote.

I can't prove this of course, but I think Abrams sore loser shenanigans turned off a lot of voters and hurt Barrow.

There is a reason you cant prove it, its simply not true

[ON Progressive]

Ouch, Raffensperger wins the Cobb early vote.

I can't prove this of course, but I think Abrams sore loser shenanigans turned off a lot of voters and hurt Barrow.

This is literally just the normal order of things in Georgia runoff elections! Democrats always suck at turning out in GA runoffs because the base there is young and non-white.

[Calthrina950]

Ouch, Raffensperger wins the Cobb early vote.

I can't prove this of course, but I think Abrams sore loser shenanigans turned off a lot of voters and hurt Barrow.

I agree fully. Abrams should have conceded gracefully and pivoted her attention to helping Barrow with the runoff. Instead, her arrogance has helped to cost Democrats this race.

[lfromnj]

Ouch, Raffensperger wins the Cobb early vote.

I can't prove this of course, but I think Abrams sore loser shenanigans turned off a lot of voters and hurt Barrow.

I agree fully. Abrams should have conceded gracefully and pivoted her attention to helping Barrow with the runoff. Instead, her arrogance has helped to cost Democrats this race.

yeah abrams acted quite a bit like a sore loser after. She could have pushed voter supression and then explained to the voters that the SOS can help that stop that and pushed her coalition towards Barrow.

[Zaybay]

Ouch, Raffensperger wins the Cobb early vote.

I can't prove this of course, but I think Abrams sore loser shenanigans turned off a lot of voters and hurt Barrow.

I agree fully. Abrams should have conceded gracefully and pivoted her attention to helping Barrow with the runoff. Instead, her arrogance has helped to cost Democrats this race.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Numbers in Columbus, Augusta, Macon, Savannah suggest Barrow still could catch up, while numbers in the Atlanta Suburbs suggest otherwise.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Ouch, Raffensperger wins the Cobb early vote.

I can't prove this of course, but I think Abrams sore loser shenanigans turned off a lot of voters and hurt Barrow.

I agree fully. Abrams should have conceded gracefully and pivoted her attention to helping Barrow with the runoff. Instead, her arrogance has helped to cost Democrats this race.

Can you stop being so moderate? It literally hurts.

[ON Progressive]

People blaming Stacey Abrams for GA runoffs having low black turnout when they always do is what I like to call:

P E A K A T L A S
E                     A
A                     L
K                     T
A                     A
T                     K
L                     A
A                     E
S A L T A K A E P

[Zaybay]

Ouch, Raffensperger wins the Cobb early vote.

I can't prove this of course, but I think Abrams sore loser shenanigans turned off a lot of voters and hurt Barrow.

I agree fully. Abrams should have conceded gracefully and pivoted her attention to helping Barrow with the runoff. Instead, her arrogance has helped to cost Democrats this race.

Can you stop being so moderate? It literally hurts.

I would call that hackish.

[MT Treasurer]

Henry County (Abrams +15): Raffensperger +4 with 10/37 precincts reporting