Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[Adam Griffin]

Nobody cares that Barrow is a Demosaur. He lost because the DPG’s canvass operation crumbled to nothing after Abrams suspended her campaign and Barrow had no credibility/name ID in the Metro to pick up Abrams’s momentum. The race had no star power and the low propensity voters Abrams inspired didn’t know Barrow from a hole in the wall and went about their day.

Yes! They're called "low-propensity voters" for a reason.

And it's why - contrary to Wulfric's nonsense - runoffs are still a death sentence in Georgia. The only reason it wasn't so bad this time was because a meaningful chunk of high-propensity suburbanites have shifted to the Democrats in recent years and Barrow had rapport with high-propensity rural white voters.

[Bidenworth2020]

honestly, and I know how low a bar this is, but this really isnt that bad a result considering it was a runoff and howEV numbers looked.

That's expectations-game bullsh*t. Given the Nov. 6 results, there's no reason why Democrats couldn't have won that race - if they cared to actually move their lazy asses and go vote.

again, I recognize this is a low bar, and this a bad loss for Democrats. But it shows an improvement on turnout, which is encouraging for future runoffs. And I think democrats may have finally learned their lesson to stop pandering to demosaurs.

its a row office and one single thing. The fact if Barrow likes guns or is moderate has little influence on somethign like SOS. Blame the dumbsh**t Abrams voters who can't bother to read down a ballot.

It isnt about his policies lol. He shouldn't have ran the "I'm a good ol boy dem, not the bad ones" to appeal to the demosaurs

It did help him a bit. It might turn off people to not coming to vote for him if you were a dem. But if you were a dem and you saw Kemp's SOS use how could you bother to go to the ballot and actually leave the SOS race blank.
Do I agree that strategy was dumb in Donnely and Mcaskill's case?
absolutely as they led the ticket but Barrow was trying to expand the coalition a bit.

the rural demosaur Kemp-Barrow voters already knew Barrow and like him, so they were going to vote for him anyway. But running this ad likely took away a lot of votes in the ATL Metro he could have also easily gotten had he not run it.

This may be the hottest of hot takes for the evening

really? This doesnt seem that much of a stretch?

[Adam Griffin]

honestly, and I know how low a bar this is, but this really isnt that bad a result considering it was a runoff and howEV numbers looked.

That's expectations-game bullsh*t. Given the Nov. 6 results, there's no reason why Democrats couldn't have won that race - if they cared to actually move their lazy asses and go vote.

again, I recognize this is a low bar, and this a bad loss for Democrats. But it shows an improvement on turnout, which is encouraging for future runoffs. And I think democrats may have finally learned their lesson to stop pandering to demosaurs.

its a row office and one single thing. The fact if Barrow likes guns or is moderate has little influence on somethign like SOS. Blame the dumbsh**t Abrams voters who can't bother to read down a ballot.

It isnt about his policies lol. He shouldn't have ran the "I'm a good ol boy dem, not the bad ones" to appeal to the demosaurs

It did help him a bit. It might turn off people to not coming to vote for him if you were a dem. But if you were a dem and you saw Kemp's SOS use how could you bother to go to the ballot and actually leave the SOS race blank.
Do I agree that strategy was dumb in Donnely and Mcaskill's case?
absolutely as they led the ticket but Barrow was trying to expand the coalition a bit.

the rural demosaur Kemp-Barrow voters already knew Barrow and like him, so they were going to vote for him anyway. But running this ad likely took away a lot of votes in the ATL Metro he could have also easily gotten had he not run it.

This may be the hottest of hot takes for the evening

really? This doesnt seem that much of a stretch?

I feel like you'd just be better off saying "he's an old white guy with a twang and that cost him votes in the metro", because that's frankly the undertone of your broader message. There was nothing offensive or alienating in that ad unless you think being folksy counts.

[lfromnj]

honestly, and I know how low a bar this is, but this really isnt that bad a result considering it was a runoff and howEV numbers looked.

That's expectations-game bullsh*t. Given the Nov. 6 results, there's no reason why Democrats couldn't have won that race - if they cared to actually move their lazy asses and go vote.

again, I recognize this is a low bar, and this a bad loss for Democrats. But it shows an improvement on turnout, which is encouraging for future runoffs. And I think democrats may have finally learned their lesson to stop pandering to demosaurs.

its a row office and one single thing. The fact if Barrow likes guns or is moderate has little influence on somethign like SOS. Blame the dumbsh**t Abrams voters who can't bother to read down a ballot.

It isnt about his policies lol. He shouldn't have ran the "I'm a good ol boy dem, not the bad ones" to appeal to the demosaurs

It did help him a bit. It might turn off people to not coming to vote for him if you were a dem. But if you were a dem and you saw Kemp's SOS use how could you bother to go to the ballot and actually leave the SOS race blank.
Do I agree that strategy was dumb in Donnely and Mcaskill's case?
absolutely as they led the ticket but Barrow was trying to expand the coalition a bit.

the rural demosaur Kemp-Barrow voters already knew Barrow and like him, so they were going to vote for him anyway. But running this ad likely took away a lot of votes in the ATL Metro he could have also easily gotten had he not run it.

This may be the hottest of hot takes for the evening

really? This doesnt seem that much of a stretch?

Why tf would you actively go against Barrow or leave it blank because he wants to be a moderate?Its not as if his NRA endorsement or other moderate hero endorsements will actually affect his voting policies. He would be mostly a standard democrat there with a bit of more moderate tone and maybe a bit of cost cutting.
It might depress turnout but its clear the entire turnout was Abrams vs Kemp. If you were an Abrams you left the SOS race blank because no moderates you were a dumbass and you deserve Abrams loss. His goal was to piggy back of Abrams and then get a small boost from his original congressional districts demosaurs.

[Adam Griffin]

Election Day: Raffensperger +2.54
Early Vote: Raffensperger +9.00

At least in lower turnout situations like primaries and runoffs, this is starting to become a trend in GA.

[Adam Griffin]

I took the above data and decided to see what the CNN exit polls would project onto each EV electorate (GE and runoff).

Not surprising, of the 3 categories, the CNN exit polls came closest to projecting Abrams' EV share by using racial data (besides party affiliation, it always produces the strongest correlation in voting in GA). The CNN data suggested she would win 50.3%; she ultimately won 50.5%.

If the runoff plays out along similar lines, then Democrats are down by 8 in the EV. If in addition to that the gap between ED & EV preferences remains the same, then we're on track for a 55-45 margin (plus or minus one point).

However, it could play out differently (in the primary, there was basically no difference between EV/ED, and even in the GE, the AIP & ED vote categories were very close to one another).

Original Projection/Image Using CNN Exit Poll

Just goes to show you that when it comes to projecting GA results, there's no better data to have than race data (though bottom rows should say "Barrow" instead of "Abrams"):

[DataGuy]

Fulton done reporting now. Looks like the final statewide result is 52-48. That's actually pretty embarrassing for Republicans in a low-turnout Georgia runoff, I must say.

[Bidenworth2020]

honestly, and I know how low a bar this is, but this really isnt that bad a result considering it was a runoff and howEV numbers looked.

That's expectations-game bullsh*t. Given the Nov. 6 results, there's no reason why Democrats couldn't have won that race - if they cared to actually move their lazy asses and go vote.

again, I recognize this is a low bar, and this a bad loss for Democrats. But it shows an improvement on turnout, which is encouraging for future runoffs. And I think democrats may have finally learned their lesson to stop pandering to demosaurs.

its a row office and one single thing. The fact if Barrow likes guns or is moderate has little influence on somethign like SOS. Blame the dumbsh**t Abrams voters who can't bother to read down a ballot.

It isnt about his policies lol. He shouldn't have ran the "I'm a good ol boy dem, not the bad ones" to appeal to the demosaurs

It did help him a bit. It might turn off people to not coming to vote for him if you were a dem. But if you were a dem and you saw Kemp's SOS use how could you bother to go to the ballot and actually leave the SOS race blank.
Do I agree that strategy was dumb in Donnely and Mcaskill's case?
absolutely as they led the ticket but Barrow was trying to expand the coalition a bit.

the rural demosaur Kemp-Barrow voters already knew Barrow and like him, so they were going to vote for him anyway. But running this ad likely took away a lot of votes in the ATL Metro he could have also easily gotten had he not run it.

This may be the hottest of hot takes for the evening

really? This doesnt seem that much of a stretch?

I feel like you'd just be better off saying "he's an old white guy with a twang and that cost him votes in the metro", because that's frankly the undertone of your broader message. There was nothing offensive or alienating in that ad unless you think being folksy counts.

So I rewatched the ad, and I see what you are saying. But I still don't think that ad really helped him.

[Storr]

Fulton done reporting now. Looks like the final statewide result is 52-48. That's actually pretty embarrassing for Republicans in a low-turnout Georgia runoff, I must say.

I have to agree, I was thinking losing 55-45 at best for Barrow.

[Adam Griffin]

There are still 10-20k mail ballots statewide that have been received but not counted yet, as well as any provisionals (I'd say no more than a couple thousand) and any mail ballots that come in to county offices around the state by Friday. These votes overall will lean Barrow, but not substantially - maybe 55-45.

In addition to the 10-20k mail ballots returned but not counted, there are still another 50k+ mail ballots that are outstanding - but it's likely the lion's share won't be returned.

At any rate, there are - in theory - up to 75k ballots potentially outstanding, but a more reasonable estimate at this point would be somewhere in the vicinity of 20-40k votes (narrowing the margin for Barrow by 2-4k votes). The estimate range is so large at this point because of that court order that is allowing people to have their mail ballots counted as long as they were postmarked by today (and received by Friday). Under normal circumstances, mail ballots must be received by Election Day in order to be counted.

[smoltchanov]

Georgia 2008 Senate Runoff - R+14
Tonight's Runoff (98% in) - R+4

Ten point drop in 10 short years. If the state continues changing at the same rate, a runoff will be winnable by 2023. So much for Georgia runoffs being "death forever", lol.

Not "forever", but - "for now". Barrow held very well, losing only 1% in substantially lower turnout runoff. But the last 2% are still a problem for Democratic candidates. It seems - i was generally correct, predicting that Democrats will begin to win in Georgia statewide by 2022-24. Now it's still "too early"

[Adam Griffin]

So I rewatched the ad, and I see what you are saying. But I still don't think that ad really helped him.

I'll agree that it was probably a waste of resources in the ATL media market specifically (at least in the inner core; it's not inherently something that'd appeal to most living there), but that's a completely different thing from actively harming his chances there.

However, it also doesn't help how our media markets are structured (most overlap substantially with other states, and ATL's is huge, so if you wanna reach any meaningful number of Georgians - especially rural and exurban areas - without wasting money, you have two choices: ATL and Macon).

[Adam Griffin]

I know it's not as flashy, but Lindy Miller in the PSC is currently 0.3 points closer in the margin (3.6 versus Barrow's 3.9) and she actually managed to win Cobb (!) and Twiggs (!!)...but unlike Barrow, she didn't win Terrell (!!!), Washington and Burke.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Tentative Final Count:

Candidate   Party   Votes   Pct.
Brad Raffensperger
Republican
756,016   52.0%
John Barrow
Democrat
698,770   48.0
1,454,786 votes, 100% reporting (2,634 of 2,634 precincts)

Overall a solid democratic performance. 48.6% in this race on election night, 48.0% in the runoff. Neligible drop-off. I'm pleased.

[Adam Griffin]

Apparently Barrow is not conceding, based on his campaign's belief that there are approximately 90,000 potential absentee votes (see my estimate a few posts up) out there with the margin being 57,000 as of now.

[lfromnj]

What is it with georgia dems and not understanding math.

[Adam Griffin]

And for those who prefer it, here's the same swing map as I posted on the previous page (comparing the Gov race in Nov to tonight's SoS runoff) using standard Atlas swing colors and thresholds:

[pppolitics]

What is it with georgia dems and not understanding math.

Maybe they hired Leslie McCrae Dowless to do the absentee ballots for them /s

[wbrocks67]

Honestly, considering Georgia's history of run-offs and Dems not turning out (Esp when the state has a R lean), the R+4 result is actually better than I was anticipating. I was scared it was gonna be way worse. It appears that Dems completely fall off in these runoffs, so it's pretty impressive Barrow got that close, and the other race was even closer.

If Dems can get within <2 in the Gov race and <4 in a low turnout runoff when Trump won the state by *5* in 2016, I think it's definitely attainable in 2020. Just needs a superb turnout operation.

[Person Man]

Whoever the next Democratic president is, they get there through Georgia and Arizona.

[OneJ]

Fulton done reporting now. Looks like the final statewide result is 52-48. That's actually pretty embarrassing for Republicans in a low-turnout Georgia runoff, I must say.

I think I disagree here. Georgia is just one of those states that's changing relatively quickly and just so happens that it doesn't favor the Republicans. Georgia has been trending Dem for a while now. I'd argue that MS-SEN Special Runoff is more embarrassing.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

I think that Georgia is still out of reach for Democrats in 2020.

2022 and 2024...maybe.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I think that Georgia is still out of reach for Democrats in 2020.

2022 and 2024...maybe.

Kind of why I want Abrams to go for a Governor rematch instead of a Senate run. Georgia’s inelasticity makes it easier for her to weather a Democratic midterm if it comes to that (Carter did respectful for someone running in the Deep South while Obama was Prez). I’d rather Teresa Tomlinson or Scott Holcomb take the gamble in 2020. If they kick Perdue out, great, if they don’t, eh. Abrams has to be very careful about her next move. Another statewide loss will hamper her political ambitions.

[Inmate Trump]

I think that Georgia is still out of reach for Democrats in 2020.

2022 and 2024...maybe.

Kind of why I want Abrams to go for a Governor rematch instead of a Senate run. Georgia’s inelasticity makes it easier for her to weather a Democratic midterm if it comes to that (Carter did respectful for someone running in the Deep South while Obama was Prez). I’d rather Teresa Tomlinson or Scott Holcomb take the gamble in 2020. If they kick Perdue out, great, if they don’t, eh. Abrams has to be very careful about her next move. Another statewide loss will hamper her political ambitions.

I sort of feel like her actions post election haven't put her in a good light.

[Lechasseur]

Fulton done reporting now. Looks like the final statewide result is 52-48. That's actually pretty embarrassing for Republicans in a low-turnout Georgia runoff, I must say.

I have to agree, I was thinking losing 55-45 at best for Barrow.