Trump approval ratings thread, 1.4

[henster]

His overall would not only be 50% if his JA with blacks were 40%. Why is nobody pointing this out? This is like if a Dem suddenly had 40% of white evangelical support, they'd be heading for a landslide.

[GeorgiaModerate]

His overall would not only be 50% if his JA with blacks were 40%. Why is nobody pointing this out? This is like if a Dem suddenly had 40% of white evangelical support, they'd be heading for a landslide.

I'm starting to wonder if their sample includes something like 5 black voters, 2 of whom support Trump.

[Hammy]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1056967755545632769

Another fine example of R projection: they conduct fake polls to fit their narrative, so in return, anything that doesn't is clearly a fake poll.

[Person Man]

His overall would not only be 50% if his JA with blacks were 40%. Why is nobody pointing this out? This is like if a Dem suddenly had 40% of white evangelical support, they'd be heading for a landslide.

I'm starting to wonder if their sample includes something like 5 black voters, 2 of whom support Trump.

Some 19 year old kid on 4chan and some guy who lives in a million dollar house, dives a Maserati, and makes a quarter million a year?

[GeorgiaModerate]

His overall would not only be 50% if his JA with blacks were 40%. Why is nobody pointing this out? This is like if a Dem suddenly had 40% of white evangelical support, they'd be heading for a landslide.

I'm starting to wonder if their sample includes something like 5 black voters, 2 of whom support Trump.

Some 19 year old kid on 4chan and some guy who lives in a million dollar house, dives a Maserati, and makes a quarter million a year?

Rothenberg's response to the poll:

https://twitter.com/StuPolitics/status/1057031365739380736

[junior chįmp]

Im glad Rasmussen is giving Trump fake polls. It will make election night all the more glorious as Trump is probably deluding himself and totally unprepared for the GOP losses that await him

[Progressive Pessimist]

Im glad Rasmussen is giving Trump fake polls. It will make election night all the more glorious as Trump is probably deluding himself and totally unprepared for the GOP losses that await him

Well, if the Republicans have a good night with the Senate elections, which is likely, I'm sure that will be enough for him to warrant bragging even if every other election is a catastrophe for his party.

[RI]

This poll of Asian-Americans suggests Trump has made gains among several Asian groups since 2016, especially among Vietnamese-Americans (up to Bush/McCain levels of support, above 60% approval): http://aapidata.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/2018-aavs-crosstabs-combined-categories.html

[Tekken_Guy]

The Gallup poll is not good news for Trump, but the worst part about it for the GOP is that it hasn’t really accounted for the synagogue attack yet. I think when we get those numbers out on Wednesday with the Economist poll, we’ll see just how bad a position the GOP are in for the midterms.

If the news cycle moves on then the GOP could undo some of their losses. But if this big story about violence and rhetoric still dominates the headlines next week then they’re in big trouble.

The aftermath of Charlottesville didn’t exit the news cycle until Hurricane Harvey hit two weeks later. And Parkland didn’t recede until March began, and even then briefly came back during the student protest marches.

[pbrower2a]

This poll of Asian-Americans suggests Trump has made gains among several Asian groups since 2016, especially among Vietnamese-Americans (up to Bush/McCain levels of support, above 60% approval): http://aapidata.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/2018-aavs-crosstabs-combined-categories.html

...but among Asian-American groups, approval for Donald Trump is low except among Vietnamese-Americans. More likely to have blue-collar jobs? Japanese-Americans have the sort of approval ratings of Trump that one expects among blacks. Korean-Americans probably distrust the deal that President Trump has cut with Kim Jong-Un.

[Very Legal & Very Cool]

This poll of Asian-Americans suggests Trump has made gains among several Asian groups since 2016, especially among Vietnamese-Americans (up to Bush/McCain levels of support, above 60% approval): http://aapidata.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/2018-aavs-crosstabs-combined-categories.html

The real news from this poll is that the Japanese STILL do not want to talk about politics.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

This poll of Asian-Americans suggests Trump has made gains among several Asian groups since 2016, especially among Vietnamese-Americans (up to Bush/McCain levels of support, above 60% approval): http://aapidata.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/2018-aavs-crosstabs-combined-categories.html

And yet, according to the survey they're the least likely to vote... SAD!

[Tekken_Guy]

This poll of Asian-Americans suggests Trump has made gains among several Asian groups since 2016, especially among Vietnamese-Americans (up to Bush/McCain levels of support, above 60% approval): http://aapidata.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/2018-aavs-crosstabs-combined-categories.html

...but among Asian-American groups, approval for Donald Trump is low except among Vietnamese-Americans. More likely to have blue-collar jobs? Japanese-Americans have the sort of approval ratings of Trump that one expects among blacks. Korean-Americans probably distrust the deal that President Trump has cut with Kim Jong-Un.

Maybe it's because the Japanese are largely concentrated in California and Hawaii. The other ethnicities can be found in other states.

And I doubt that Koreans vote on Trump’s relation with Kim any more than Jews vote on Netanyahu.

[Very Legal & Very Cool]

This poll of Asian-Americans suggests Trump has made gains among several Asian groups since 2016, especially among Vietnamese-Americans (up to Bush/McCain levels of support, above 60% approval): http://aapidata.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/2018-aavs-crosstabs-combined-categories.html

...but among Asian-American groups, approval for Donald Trump is low except among Vietnamese-Americans. More likely to have blue-collar jobs? Japanese-Americans have the sort of approval ratings of Trump that one expects among blacks. Korean-Americans probably distrust the deal that President Trump has cut with Kim Jong-Un.

Maybe it's because the Japanese are largely concentrated in California and Hawaii. The other ethnicities can be found in other states.

And I doubt that Koreans vote on Trump’s relation with Kim any more than Jews vote on Netanyahu.

I'm not so sure about that comparison. American Jews come mostly from Europe, not Israel. Most Korean Americans are 1st or 2nd generation, maybe 3rd, and have closer ties to Korea than most Jewish Americans would have with Israel, a nation founded long after their families reached our shores.

I would agree that it's not as much of an issue for Koreans as it is for Cubans, Vietnamese, or Filipinos.

[Adam Griffin]

Charlottesville 2, right-wing terrorist boogaloo

https://youtu.be/G6aHDsNZF4U?t=79

[pbrower2a]

Arizona -- Marist.

Trump approval 44%, disapproval 49%.

The incumbent Republican governor is still ahead, and now by double digits. Sinema (D) is ahead of McSalley (R) in the Senate race 50-44, and early voters Sinema is up 51-47... and this accounts for 44% of Arizona voters.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/poll-sinema-leads-mcsally-arizona-senate-race-n925876

Glengariff, Michigan:

Democrats Whitmer (for Governor) and Senate (Stabenow, incumbent) have overwhelming leads.

Trump unfavorable 56% and favorable 38%. with disapproval at 51% (I cannot use this unless I get an approval number).

Emerson (unfortunately these are favorable-unfavorable, so I can't put them on the map) :

Kansas 53-42

Ohio 47-49

Oregon, 37-56

Gubernatorial races: basically Brown (D) will get re-elected in Oregon, Cordray (D) is ahead around the margin of error in Ohio, and  Kansas is a toss-up.

https://www.emerson.edu/news-events/emerson-college-today/emerson-poll-close-governor-races-ohio-oregon-kansas-democrats-look-pick-congressional-seat-kansas#.W9hk-zFRfcf

[pbrower2a]

Florida -- University of Northern Florida:

Trump approval 45-51.

Gillum (D)  has a significant lead in the gubernatorial race, and Nelson (D, incumbent) is ahead by 1% in the Senate race.

http://www.unf.edu/coas/porl/2018FL2Fall.aspx

[junior chįmp]

Just in time for the midterms:

You Gov via 538

Approve 39%
Disapprove 57%

[Devout Centrist]

This poll of Asian-Americans suggests Trump has made gains among several Asian groups since 2016, especially among Vietnamese-Americans (up to Bush/McCain levels of support, above 60% approval): http://aapidata.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/2018-aavs-crosstabs-combined-categories.html

n=216

This subsample also has a 36 point favorable view of the Democratic Party

[KingSweden]

Just in time for the midterms:

You Gov via 538

Approve 39%
Disapprove 57%

That’s pretty low by YouGov standards isn’t it?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Just in time for the midterms:

You Gov via 538

Approve 39%
Disapprove 57%

That’s pretty low by YouGov standards isn’t it?

Yes, but it's one of their daily snapshots of 1000 adults, which swing wildly.  It's better to look at their weekly(ish) summaries of 1500 adults.  We should probably get one of those today or tomorrow; the last one was 42/50.

[GeorgiaModerate]

NBC News/GenForward Young Adult Survey, Sep. 21 - Oct. 6, 1881 adults ages 18-34

Trump approval: 25 (strongly 10)
      disapproval: 59 (strongly 44)

GCB: D 41, R 23. With leaners: D 49, R 29.

Likelihood to vote:
    Definitely: 31
    Probably: 26
    Not sure: 23
    Probably not: 12
    Definitely not: 7

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov, Oct. 28-30, 1500 adults including 1296 registered voters

Adults:

Approve 40 (-2)
Disapprove 52 (+2)

Strongly approve 23 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 41 (+1)

RV:

Approve 44 (-1)
Disapprove 52 (nc)

Strongly approve 28 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (nc)

GCB (RV only): D 47 (nc), R 42 (+1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Harvard/Harris, Oct. 26-28, 1835 RV (change from late Sept.)

Approve 44 (-2)
Disapprove 56 (+2)

Strongly approve 24 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 42 (+4)

GCB: D 47 (+2), R 38 (+1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico, Oct. 25-30, 2543 RV

Approve 43 (-2)
Disapprove 54 (+3)

Strongly approve 23 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 42 (+3)

GCB: D 46 (+1), R 38 (-1)