Trump approval ratings thread, 1.4

[GeorgiaModerate]

Kaiser Foundation, Sep. 19 - Oct. 2, 949 RV (change from July)

Approve 40 (nc)
Disapprove 54 (-1)

Strongly approve 23 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 43 (-1)

GCB: D 50 (+1), R 38 (+1)

More from the Kaiser poll.  They oversampled a couple of states (599 voters in each):

Nevada:

Approve 39 (strongly 26)
Disapprove 55 (strongly 44)

GCB: D 45, R 43

Florida:

Approve 44 (strongly 28)
Disapprove 53 (strongly 42)

GCB: D 49, R 43

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Is Donald the new Teflon President?

[Person Man]

Is Donald the new Teflon President?

Everyone gets an uptick around this point. Bush II was at 43% on election day in 2006. Clinton was at 45%. Obama was at 46%. The Original Teflon President was at 45%. Ironically, Carter was in the low 50's.

[GeorgiaModerate]

New York: Quinnipiac, Oct. 10-16, 852 LV

Approve 37
Disapprove 60

By region:

NYC: 22/73
Suburbs: 46/54
Upstate: 49/48

[pbrower2a]

Just a reminder: I will be starting a new Thread, trump approval ratings, 2.0 just before or just after Election Day, 2018  practically from scratch. All data here will be obsolete, as much will have changed. We will be getting data from a different set of states based upon new sets of gubernatorial and Senate races and from approval and disapproval of newly-elected politicians. I expect new stories of investigation of the President and his associates.

There will be economic news (especially if bad) and events from gaffes of the President to new or re-starting wars. We will see if certain pols up for re-election will fare better than Trump in their states.   

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Treating him as just another GOP politican, but worse, legitimizes him. Playing his game of cheap theatrics at the same time is practically handing him wins.

Once the Dems can stop obsessing with how awful Trump is personally, stop taking their assigned roles in his reality tv show, and instead start to highlight his incompetence, he's done. A successful D candidate needs to sell themselves as a capable executive and redefine Trump as the childish clown he is. Once they pull that off, Trump's every action will just reinforce the contrast. But only so long as they don't play his (and the media's) game.

I'm sorry, but this post is full of contradictions. For one, the strategy in the first paragraph is exactly what Hillary Clinton tried to do. In fact, she specifically changed course from her primary strategy to avoid calling him another typical Republican, which is what she was doing up until he became the nominee.

Also, you talk about the Democrats needing to stop obsessing about how awful Trump is personally but then go on to say that we should focus on his incompetence. Uh...? One of the biggest reasons Trump is awful personally is because he brags about his talents but is, in reality, a stupid, incompetent f-ck. You can't separate his personal characteristics from his incompetence or really any aspect of his job performance at all.

I've read your post a bunch of times now. You are describing Hillary Clinton. I'm sorry. It didn't work because Americans don't care and can't differentiate when Trump does start to play his games and drag down an opponent who's capable and legit. His games work whether the Democrat chooses to play them or not.

[pbrower2a]

The Trump trick is to debase politics until people on the other side get sick of it and decide that they don't want to vote -- and don't. But his enthusiastic voters still vote.

 Will it work in 2020? I most certainly hope not. 

[Person Man]

The Trump trick is to debase politics until people on the other side get sick of it and decide that they don't want to vote -- and don't. But his enthusiastic voters still vote.

 Will it work in 2020? I most certainly hope not. 

This. Pretty much this is how animals behave if you catch or corner them. They will do a "musking". This is especially the case with the local snakes and lizards. If you catch them, they will try to piss and sh**t on you so that you will let them go.

[Sorenroy]

Just a reminder: I will be starting a new Thread, trump approval ratings, 2.0 just before or just after Election Day, 2018  practically from scratch. All data here will be obsolete, as much will have changed. We will be getting data from a different set of states based upon new sets of gubernatorial and Senate races and from approval and disapproval of newly-elected politicians. I expect new stories of investigation of the President and his associates.

There will be economic news (especially if bad) and events from gaffes of the President to new or re-starting wars. We will see if certain pols up for re-election will fare better than Trump in their states. 

I don't agree that the data here will be obsolete come election. While I'm sure opinions will change naturally as Democrats in the House begin investigating Trump, that doesn't seem to be enough to invalidate earlier information just because an election happened. Sure, elections are important, but they don't magically shift public opinion of the president on their own. That being said, a new thread starting November 7th could be a good idea because it will shift discussion of the data by people on the forum. However, it should be 1.5, not 2.0. 2.0 strikes me as much more of a second term type deal. Would you do a 3.0 after November 3rd, 2020? That doesn't make sense.

[pbrower2a]

Just a reminder: I will be starting a new Thread, trump approval ratings, 2.0 just before or just after Election Day, 2018  practically from scratch. All data here will be obsolete, as much will have changed. We will be getting data from a different set of states based upon new sets of gubernatorial and Senate races and from approval and disapproval of newly-elected politicians. I expect new stories of investigation of the President and his associates.

There will be economic news (especially if bad) and events from gaffes of the President to new or re-starting wars. We will see if certain pols up for re-election will fare better than Trump in their states. 

I don't agree that the data here will be obsolete come election. While I'm sure opinions will change naturally as Democrats in the House begin investigating Trump, that doesn't seem to be enough to invalidate earlier information just because an election happened. Sure, elections are important, but they don't magically shift public opinion of the president on their own. That being said, a new thread starting November 7th could be a good idea because it will shift discussion of the data by people on the forum. However, it should be 1.5, not 2.0. 2.0 strikes me as much more of a second term type deal. Would you do a 3.0 after November 3rd, 2020? That doesn't make sense.

You are right. It will be 1.5 after the 2018 election and 2.0 after the inauguration. The reference is to the second Congress under Trump, and after two years. I have yet to figure when the 2020 Presidential election begins in earnest. I want to see the Democratic field shrink significantly before I make more specific predictions on the election than the ones that I have now.

So far I see Donald Trump as a one-term President because his approval (and especially disapproval)  numbers are putrid. He's doing about 5% worse at this stage than Obama. Maybe I need to show what sort of re-election result Obama would have gotten with 40% approval. 

I have seen State governors change their tunes after an election or referendum, as did the young Governor Jerry Brown after the passage of Proposition 13 in California.  I can't imagine President Trump being that flexible, but strange things have happened.

I'm not making any prediction of investigations in Congress. Economic collapse? There is no bubble to collapse.

Approval numbers will be relevant, but events will happen in a non-election year. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

AP/NORC, Oct. 11-14, 1152 adults (change from August)

Approve 40 (+2)
Disapprove 59 (-1)

Strongly approve 21 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 45 (+2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Nevada: PPP, Oct. 15-16, 648 RV

Approve 46
Disapprove 50

[pbrower2a]

It's really simple to figure how Obama would have done in 2012 had his approval numbers been 5% lower, which is about where I see Trump's approval numbers. Cut Obama's percentage of the vote by 5% and raise Romney by 3%, figuring that 2% would have gone to left-leaning  third-party nominees (Green, largely)

Obama, 10% or more
Obama, 5-9.9%
Obama under 5%
Romney under 5%
Romney 5-9.9%
Romney, 10% or more

Obama 187, 46% of the popular vote
Romney 351, 50% of the popular vote

As you can see, this hypothetical scenario would be nearly an inverse in the the numbers of electoral votes of 2012. of how things went in 2016.

So how do I see Trump doing if such a scenario applies to him? Figure that the Democrat does not lose so many votes to third-party, left-leaning nominees, that about 3% of usual Republican voters end up voting for third-party, right-leaning nominees, with the Democrat getting just over 50% of the popular vote and Trump getting about 46%, Basically, Trump loses everything that he lost in 2016 and everything that he won by 10% or less with the exception of Texas -- but Indiana, Missouri, and Montana get shaky for him.  

Again, margins, which I consider the real measure of winning and losing.


Democratic nominee, 10% or more
Democratic nominee, 5-9.9%
Democratic nominee under 5%
Trump under 5%
Trump, 5-9.9% -- not shown
Romney, 10% or more -- not shown

I'm using polling and not adjusting any previous election.

When the losing nominee gets 45% or so of the popular vote, strange things happen that start showing characteristics of an electoral blowout that rapidly diverges from the close Presidential elections to which we have been accustomed since 2000. The easiest thing to remember in accordance with what I have seen for polls for a very long time is that Texas straddles 400 electoral votes for a Democrat, which has been so since the 1992 Presidential election.

[mgop]

must say that "jobsnotmobs" is one of the most idiotic slogans. he start losing it, ratings gonna sink...

[Progressive Pessimist]

Is Donald the new Teflon President?

He always has been.

[GeorgiaModerate]

CBS News, Oct. 14-17, 1108 adults including 975 RV (change from June)

Adults:

Approve 39 (-3)
Disapprove 53 (+1)

RV (not done in June):

Approve 42
Disapprove 53

GCB: D 51, R 42

[GeorgiaModerate]

NBC/WSJ, Oct. 14-17, 900 RV

Approve 47 (+3)
Disapprove 49 (-3)

Strongly approve 30 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (-2)

[LimoLiberal]

NBC/WSJ, Oct. 14-17, 900 RV

Approve 47 (+3)
Disapprove 49 (-3)

Strongly approve 30 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (-2)

His highest approval number among RVs in the NBC/WSJ poll of his presidency.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Fwi his approval among LV is 45/52.

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/1054004158628618240

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/1054004158628618240

This is what happened with Obama, Clinton, and even 43 in 2006. They spent a lot of time in the 35-45 range only for them to be in the mid 40s on election day.

[Matty]

Looking at the internals of the nbc/wsj poll, man is that healthcare failure for the GOP hurting them

They lead by 15 points on economy, 17 on trade, yet loss by 18 on HC issue

“It’s not just economy, stupid”

[Virginiá]

Looking at the internals of the nbc/wsj poll, man is that healthcare failure for the GOP hurting them

They lead by 15 points on economy, 17 on trade, yet loss by 18 on HC issue

“It’s not just economy, stupid”

Not in midterms, but presidential elections it will be (at least more than it is now).

[Person Man]

Looking at the internals of the nbc/wsj poll, man is that healthcare failure for the GOP hurting them

They lead by 15 points on economy, 17 on trade, yet loss by 18 on HC issue

“It’s not just economy, stupid”

Not in midterms, but presidential elections it will be (at least more than it is now).

That's why Obama did well when he did and Democrats failed so badly in between.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Florida: CNN/SSRS, Oct. 16-20, 1012 adults including 872 RV and 759 LV

Adults:

Approve 42
Disapprove 50

RV:

Approve 44
Disapprove 50

LV:

Approve 43
Disapprove 51