Trump approval ratings thread, 1.4

[pbrower2a]

Exit poll, Colorado: Magellan Strategies (R) -- unaffiliated voters only:

Trump approval 31%, disapproval 62%. Strong disapproval is at 48%.



For the first time ever in a Colorado mid-term election, unaffiliated voter turnout (893,436) and Democratic voter turnout (822,230) was higher than Republican turnout (803,143), and by a significant margin. In the 2014 mid-term election, Republican voter turnout was 774,923, Democratic voter turnout was 664,532 and unaffiliated voter turnout was 634,296.

Voter enthusiasm was overwhelming among Democratic and unaffiliated voters compared to Republican voters. In the 2014 mid-term election, 68% of registered Republicans turned out to vote, compared to 71% of Republicans in 2018, a 3-point increase. Among registered Democrat voters 2018, 71% turned out to vote, a 12-point increase from 59% in the 2014 election. Unaffiliated voters increased their percentage of voter turnout by 11-points, from 46% in 2014 to 57% in 2018.

There is no question that Donald Trump had a negative impact on Republican candidates, with 34% of unaffiliated voters saying they were less likely to vote for a Republican candidate because of his influence. In addition, President Trump’s job approval among all unaffiliated voters is toxic, with only 31% approving of the job he is doing, 62% disapproving, and 48% strongly disapproving of the job he is doing.

A synopsis of some other data:

Republicans did well in Colorado among unaffiliated voters in 2010 and 2014, and except in the Presidential races, 2012 and 2016. Trump is a disaster to Republicans in Colorado, which is spiraling away from the Republican Party.

http://magellanstrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Colorado-2018-Post-Election-Survey-of-Unaffiliated-Voters-Release-111518.pdf

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Surely you'd expect these numbers to continue into 2020.

Trump's numbers have been consistent over the last two years. It is almost impossible to see him gaining 45%+, and very difficult seeing him fall below 40% (on a consistent level), such is the partisan nature of the electorate.

[pbrower2a]

Surely you'd expect these numbers to continue into 2020.

Trump's numbers have been consistent over the last two years. It is almost impossible to see him gaining 45%+, and very difficult seeing him fall below 40% (on a consistent level), such is the partisan nature of the electorate.

They are consistent because of the polarization of American politics.  Somewhere between 40% and 45% of the American public will excuse anything that their Party's leader will do as President.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Rassy is getting DRAGGED in the replies-

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1064616725348564992

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1064618476508246017

I'm about ready to send Rasmussen to McLaughlin land.

[pbrower2a]

Rassy is getting DRAGGED in the replies-

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1064616725348564992

Did Rasmussen do any exit polls? Does it ever check its results against reality?

Its model may fit an R wave... but there is no R wave. There is no reinforcement of conservative voters with young voters entering the electorate or older ones adopting conservative ideology as the result of some religious or cultural conversion.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup reverting to the mean after a big drop last week:

Approve 43 (+5)
Disapprove 53 (-3)

[GeorgiaModerate]

CBS News, Nov. 15-18, 1103 adults (change from last month)

Approve 39 (nc)
Disapprove 55 (+2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Global Strategy Group, Nov. 8-12, 1269 RV (change from Sept.)

Approve 42 (+3)
Disapprove 55 (-4)

Strongly approve 20 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 43 (-4)

[Person Man]

Are post mid-tern bumps common. On 538, it appears that they are.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quinnipiac, Nov. 14-19, 1046 RV (change from early Oct.)

Approve 41 (nc)
Disapprove 54 (+1)

Strongly approve 31 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 47 (+1)

Approve/disapprove of Trump's handling of various issues:

Economy 53/42
Foreign policy 42/53
Immigration 41/56
Gun policy 40/52
Race relations 35/59
California wildfires 31/51

62/30 say Democrats taking the House is a good thing.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico, Nov. 15-18, 1957 RV (1-week change)

Approve 45 (nc)
Disapprove 51 (+1)

Strongly approve 24 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 38 (-1)

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

For all of this hullabaloo about Trump being an historically unfavorable president, it's not exactly like he's doing much worse than Obama....

[Thatkat04]

For all of this hullabaloo about Trump being an historically unfavorable president, it's not exactly like he's doing much worse than Obama....

The economy was still very much a sh**t-show in 2010, and thats not even mentioning the botched Obamacare rollout. Trump, on the other hand, has only himself to blame. If Hillary were president, she'd probably be doing at-least 5 to 10 points better on the strength of the economy alone.

[GeorgiaModerate]

ARG monthly economic survey, Nov. 17-20, 1100 adults

Approve 42 (nc)
Disapprove 55 (nc)

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov, Nov. 16-20, 1500 adults including 1328 RV

Adults:

Approve 40 (-1)
Disapprove 49 (-2)

Strongly approve 24 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 41 (nc)

RV:

Approve 45 (nc)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

Strongly approve 31 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 46 (nc)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Last week's Gallup poll was apparently an outlier.  This week:

Approve 38 (-5)
Disapprove 60 (+7)

This is more in line with the 38/56 from two weeks ago.

The net -22 is Trump's worst since Feb. 18 (37/59) and the 60% disapproval equals his highest in Gallup's weekly survey, seen three times last year (35/60 each time).

[Person Man]

Wow. This is even before Sunday's Nazi stuff in Tijuana.

[BigSerg]

Last week's Gallup poll was apparently an outlier.  This week:

Approve 38 (-5)
Disapprove 60 (+7)

This is more in line with the 38/56 from two weeks ago.

The net -22 is Trump's worst since Feb. 18 (37/59) and the 60% disapproval equals his highest in Gallup's weekly survey, seen three times last year (35/60 each time).

I would be inclined more to this survey is atypical, no other pollster reflects such bad numbers

[pbrower2a]

Last week's Gallup poll was apparently an outlier.  This week:

Approve 38 (-5)
Disapprove 60 (+7)

This is more in line with the 38/56 from two weeks ago.

The net -22 is Trump's worst since Feb. 18 (37/59) and the 60% disapproval equals his highest in Gallup's weekly survey, seen three times last year (35/60 each time).

So much for the idea that Americans are rallying behind the President after the midterm election.

Here's the good news:

Year   President   House seats   Senate seats   Reelected?
1970   Nixon   -12   +2   Yes
1978   Carter   -15   -3   No
1982   Reagan   -26   +1   Yes
1990   Bush            -8   -1   No
1994   Clinton   -52   -8   Yes
2002   Bush            +8   +2   Yes
2010   Obama   -63   -6   Yes
2018   Trump   -39*   +2*   

2018 results do not include unresolved House races or results of special Senate election in Mississippi.

Source: American Presidency Project/POLITICO Elections

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/23/warning-signs-trump-reelection-bid-1012184

If there is a silver lining to the cloud of huge losses in the 2018 midterm for Republicans, then it is in Senate gains (apparently nobody brought up such a topic as "legitimate rape" or something similarly stupid -- until the Mississippi run-off election and, even more, that Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama had big losses in the House in the midterm following their first-time elections and then won handily.

On the other side, those three learned something after the defeats for their Parties. Reagan cooled down an overheated economy with a harsh deal for many (lower your expectations, young worker, and if you are unhappy with your dead-end job and its pay, then take a second low-pay, dead-end job to make ends meet, maybe buy yourself something with your employee discount in the shopping mall), put an end to the inflation of the 1970s, and won in a landslide. Clinton gave up on tax-and-spend government. Obama played the adult role against the Tea party pols -- and won.

Let's put it this way: one can get an effective Presidency, if not the one that one likes, if one has the skill set of Ronald Reagan and the temperament of Dwight Eisenhower.  The problem with that for Donald Trump is that that far better describes Barack Obama than it does himself!

If he learns something and moderates he might just win re-election. On the other side we have the pervasive, severe corruption and abuse of power that marks this Presidency like no other.  
 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Agreed it's one poll, but this is an interesting take:

https://twitter.com/BenjySarlin/status/1067129697618853889

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1067157237746012171

[Progressive Pessimist]

Agreed it's one poll, but this is an interesting take:

https://twitter.com/BenjySarlin/status/1067129697618853889

I don't think this will have as much of an impact as it seems. They'll look at the Senate and at some of the gubernatorial races where Democratic rising stars were defeated, and polish the turd of his party leadership with that.

[here2view]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1067157237746012171

Only Trump could screw up a booming economy by allowing Democrats to pick up their biggest House gain in almost 50 years. Thanks Donny!

If he wasn't a moron he'd be around 50% approval right now.

[Yank2133]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1067157237746012171

Only Trump could screw up a booming economy by allowing Democrats to pick up their biggest House gain in almost 50 years. Thanks Donny!

If he wasn't a moron he'd be around 50% approval right now.

He is such an awful person that it has overshadowed how utterly incompetent he is.