Trump approval ratings thread, 1.4

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

North Dakota has to be an outlier, or possibly two to get that much change. The Marine Corps Agreement (USMCA) can't have had that much of an impact there.

[Inmate Trump]

I doubt ND is just an outlier.

Cramer is up by a lot too in the Senate election.

[henster]

Rass has Trump JA at 50% but they also tweeted out his JA with blacks is at 35%, I think they might be another Research 2000.

[RI]

Rass has Trump JA at 50% but they also tweeted out his JA with blacks is at 35%, I think they might be another Research 2000.

Rasmussen has shown a very high approval of Trump by blacks for a while now. Other polls don't have him nearly as high, but they do show marked improvement among blacks since 2016.

[RI]

Rass has Trump JA at 50% but they also tweeted out his JA with blacks is at 35%, I think they might be another Research 2000.

Rasmussen has shown a very high approval of Trump by blacks for a while now. Other polls don't have him nearly as high, but they do show marked improvement among blacks since 2016.

Black people just love it when Republicans call them n*****s. Didn’t you get the memo? Also love it when Republicans hate them kneeling. They have a masochistic voting habit

Here's the thing: a quarter of blacks or more identify as conservatives, and most identify as moderate, not liberal. Whether they vote for Republicans is another matter (which I'm thinking about starting a thread on). It's not insane to think a third of blacks might approve of Trump.

[BudgieForce]

Rass has Trump JA at 50% but they also tweeted out his JA with blacks is at 35%, I think they might be another Research 2000.

Rasmussen has shown a very high approval of Trump by blacks for a while now. Other polls don't have him nearly as high, but they do show marked improvement among blacks since 2016.

Black people just love it when Republicans call them n*****s. Didn’t you get the memo? Also love it when Republicans hate them kneeling. They have a masochistic voting habit

Here's the thing: a quarter of blacks or more identify as conservatives, and most identify as moderate, not liberal. Whether they vote for Republicans is another matter (which I'm thinking about starting a thread on). It's not insane to think a third of blacks might approve of Trump.

When no other pollster corroborates that and neither does actual voting results, then yes it is kind of insane.

[RI]

Rass has Trump JA at 50% but they also tweeted out his JA with blacks is at 35%, I think they might be another Research 2000.

Rasmussen has shown a very high approval of Trump by blacks for a while now. Other polls don't have him nearly as high, but they do show marked improvement among blacks since 2016.

Black people just love it when Republicans call them n*****s. Didn’t you get the memo? Also love it when Republicans hate them kneeling. They have a masochistic voting habit

Here's the thing: a quarter of blacks or more identify as conservatives, and most identify as moderate, not liberal. Whether they vote for Republicans is another matter (which I'm thinking about starting a thread on). It's not insane to think a third of blacks might approve of Trump.

When no other pollster corroborates that and neither does actual voting results, then yes it is kind of insane.

Well, it's a bit more complicated than that. I'm going to write up a post on the matter.

[henster]

Rass has Trump JA at 50% but they also tweeted out his JA with blacks is at 35%, I think they might be another Research 2000.

Rasmussen has shown a very high approval of Trump by blacks for a while now. Other polls don't have him nearly as high, but they do show marked improvement among blacks since 2016.

Black people just love it when Republicans call them n*****s. Didn’t you get the memo? Also love it when Republicans hate them kneeling. They have a masochistic voting habit

Here's the thing: a quarter of blacks or more identify as conservatives, and most identify as moderate, not liberal. Whether they vote for Republicans is another matter (which I'm thinking about starting a thread on). It's not insane to think a third of blacks might approve of Trump.

If a third of blacks approved of Trump then his JA would consistently be above 50%. The Rass polls makes no sense because if his JA with blacks is 35% then how is he only at 50%. They are either seriously undersampling black voters which skews their whole result or making numbers up for headlines.

[Person Man]

Rass has Trump JA at 50% but they also tweeted out his JA with blacks is at 35%, I think they might be another Research 2000.

Rasmussen has shown a very high approval of Trump by blacks for a while now. Other polls don't have him nearly as high, but they do show marked improvement among blacks since 2016.

Black people just love it when Republicans call them n*****s. Didn’t you get the memo? Also love it when Republicans hate them kneeling. They have a masochistic voting habit

Here's the thing: a quarter of blacks or more identify as conservatives, and most identify as moderate, not liberal. Whether they vote for Republicans is another matter (which I'm thinking about starting a thread on). It's not insane to think a third of blacks might approve of Trump.

If a third of blacks approved of Trump then his JA would consistently be above 50%. The Rass polls makes no sense because if his JA with blacks is 35% then how is he only at 50%. They are either seriously undersampling black voters which skews their whole result or making numbers up for headlines.

It would probably have to be in the 60s.

[OneJ]

Rass has Trump JA at 50% but they also tweeted out his JA with blacks is at 35%, I think they might be another Research 2000.

Rasmussen has shown a very high approval of Trump by blacks for a while now. Other polls don't have him nearly as high, but they do show marked improvement among blacks since 2016.

Black people just love it when Republicans call them n*****s. Didn’t you get the memo? Also love it when Republicans hate them kneeling. They have a masochistic voting habit

Here's the thing: a quarter of blacks or more identify as conservatives, and most identify as moderate, not liberal. Whether they vote for Republicans is another matter (which I'm thinking about starting a thread on). It's not insane to think a third of blacks might approve of Trump.

Not trying to derail the thread from the main discussion, but I think there's a big issue when it comes to black people and how they consider themselves politically. I think a good portion may not truly understand what it means to be "liberal" or "conservative" or "moderate."

Here's what I mean:
-Views on Abortion, 2017

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-Major Poll Shows African Americans Strongly Back Climate Action, Believe Shifting to Clean Energy Will Create Jobs, Hold Down Electric Bills

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-Who Sees Discrimination?

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*There was a 48-41 split in favor of gay marriage among blacks.

And these are just a few interesting to look at when trying to understand what blacks believe in. There are more, but we can have more discussion on this later. I do like the idea of starting a new thread for this topic. But based off those few things, black voters in general don't seem to have much of a reason to approve or even vote for his reelection in spite of the amount who think they are conservative.

[pbrower2a]

In general, the words liberal, moderate, and conservative might mean something different in African-American politics than they mean  for white people in a political context.

Middle-class blacks may be even more liberal than poor blacks because many are professionals or entrepreneurs who depend heavily upon the government for income as professional payments (Medicare, Medicaid), welfare (rent subsidies, SNAP), or government jobs. They are not going to become anti-tax as white people of similar economic status because they are more concerned with getting income than with keeping it.

[pbrower2a]

Trafalgar Group, South Carolina:

Approve 53%, disapprove 42%

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1eWqrPm8L2r2U_sllCOOkovljiaZePaVP/view

[GeorgiaModerate]

Emerson, Oct. 1-4, 1000 RV (change from last month)

Approve 43 (+5)
Disapprove 50 (-3)

The next previous poll (July) was also 43/50, so it looks like this is reversion to the mean after Trump's recent dip, as other pollsters have shown.

GCB: D 50 (-2), R 42 (+3)

Some interesting issue questions, including:

Using taxes to provide free college tuition: 51/36

Medicare for all: 53/31

Basic income guarantee: 39/44 (much closer than I would have expected)

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[Person Man]

Emerson, Oct. 1-4, 1000 RV (change from last month)

Approve 43 (+5)
Disapprove 50 (-3)

The next previous poll (July) was also 43/50, so it looks like this is reversion to the mean after Trump's recent dip, as other pollsters have shown.

GCB: D 50 (-2), R 42 (+3)

Some interesting issue questions, including:

Using taxes to provide free college tuition: 51/36

Medicare for all: 53/31

Basic income guarantee: 39/44 (much closer than I would have expected)

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Oddly enough, it didn't move the needle @ 538.

[pbrower2a]

Fox News Polls out today asked potential voters their views on President Donald Trump. Registered voter numbers shown with change from last month, likely voters shown below. North Dakota shows "All Eligible Voters" with change from last month.


Arizona: 9/29-10/2, 806RV/716LV

Approve: 51% (+3)
Disapprove: 47% (-2)

LV: 51/47


Indiana: 9/29-10/2, 806RV/695LV

Approve: 51% (-1)
Disapprove: 47% (+1)

LV: 52/46


Missouri: 9/29-10/2, 805RV/683LV

Approve: 53% (+4)
Disapprove: 45% (-3)

LV: 54/45


North Dakota: 9/29-10/2, 801RV/704LV

Approve: 62% (+8)
Disapprove: 36% (-6)

LV: 64/35


Tennessee: 9/29-10/2, 806RV/666LV

Approve: 60% (+4)
Disapprove: 37% (-2)

LV: 60/39

I prefer polls of registered voters for a Presidential election at this point. "Likely voters" could be a 2014 model which I consider completely irrelevant to 2018 or 2020. Republicans may be riled up do to oppose what they consider the crucifixion that Democrats have given to Bret Kavanaugh.
 

Trafalgar Group, South Carolina:

Approve 53%, disapprove 42%

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1eWqrPm8L2r2U_sllCOOkovljiaZePaVP/view

What I saw in South Carolina looked seems to be a very old poll and probably at one of Trump's lowest points.  If you don't like a poll, then wait for another or explain why you dislike it. You do much waiting with South Carolina, though.


  

55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 30
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue, but must be a lead of at least 3%)
50% or higher but positive, or a margin less than 3%, pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 33
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

*With the explicit question of whether the President should or should not be re-elected (AZ, FL, MI, MN, NH, OH, WI), or 100-DIS if such is all that is available:


Re-elect/do not re-elect if known; 100-DIS otherwise

100-DIS

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue (but must be a lead of at least 3%)
iess than 50% positive or a margin less than 3% pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red (or 55% do-not-reelect or higher)
40% to 44% medium red (or 50 to 54% do-not-reelect or higher)
under 40% deep red (or 50% or less do-not-reelect if do-not re-elect if do-not-reelect is higher than reelect)
Ties for elect and re-elect are also in white.

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
FL 37-54*
HI 36
MI 28-62*
NH 41-50* (perhaps as much as 41-57, depending upon interpretation)
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

[pbrower2a]

I prefer polls of registered voters for a Presidential election at this point. "Likely voters" could be a 2014 model which I consider completely irrelevant to 2018 or 2020. Republicans may be riled up do to the crucifixion that Democrats have given to Bret Kavanaugh.

The RV numbers are the ones shown in green and red, the LV numbers are shown below. For your map you used the LV numbers rather than the RV numbers.

Corrections made.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Approvals have meaning but, these are states that Trump won anyways. Donnelly is surviving in red state IN.  But, we still have an ethically challenged president.

[pbrower2a]

Approvals have meaning but, these are states that Trump won anyways. Donnelly is surviving in red state IN.  But, we still have an ethically challenged president.

Disapprovals have even more meaning. Indiana says much about the Presidential election; Republicans must win the state by at least 10% to not lose in the election. If Indiana is close (let alone a Democratic win), then Democrats can expect to celebrate. Any credible disapproval rating over 50% indicates with a high level of certainty that the incumbent will lose.

If Indiana is a swing state, then Ohio is a Democratic win even if by a small margin.

Arizona, Ohio, Florida, Georgia, and  North Carolina look like the clinchers or a Democrat in 2020. 

[pbrower2a]

It's a poll of favorability, and not approval, so I can't use it. Favorability and approval have typically been close.

https://www.dataorbital.com/the-blog/new-survey-ducey-and-gaynor-lead-in-democratic-surge-scenario

[afleitch]

It's a poll of favorability, and not approval, so I can't use it. Favorability and approval have typically been close.

Still interesting to track separately; there are sound reasons to 'approve' of a job someone is doing if you think that in doing that job they will fail.

[pbrower2a]

It's a poll of favorability, and not approval, so I can't use it. Favorability and approval have typically been close.

Still interesting to track separately; there are sound reasons to 'approve' of a job someone is doing if you think that in doing that job they will fail.

Approval is of job performance. Favorability is of expectation.

One might like the pol but think him capricious or think his ideas crazy. That might be good for strong favorability. If the pol then does as expected -- which is failure -- then approval goes in the tank. 

[pbrower2a]

Another PDF of a national poll. Morning Consult. Morning Consult has typically gotten results more favorable to Donald Trump...

https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/180941_crosstabs_POLITICO_v1_HS.pdf

Right track/wrong track

Registered voters: 42% right track, 58% wrong track.

Trump supporters think that America is on the right track; others think that it is on the wrong track.

Overall approval of Trump among registered voters: 42-51

liberal 18-74
moderate 31-67
conservative 77-21

college degree 38-60
graduate degree 38-60

(Trump said that he loves low-information voters; he needs them!)

income under 50K 38-56
income 50K-100K 47-51
income 100K+  47-51

(income under 50K is heavily minority)

Protestant 60-38
Catholic 43-55
other Christian 25-69
Jewish 25-74
Evangelical 59-38
non-Christian 25-69

(I find it hard to believe that Trump is doing so badly among Eastern Orthodox Christians. Must be more Ukrainian-Americans than I thought. Russian-Americans probably don't like the President's buddy-buddy relationship with Putin. Or could it be Mormons? They are fussy about freedom of religion. Protestants on the whole are rather conservative unless members of minority groups).   


urban 31-64
suburban 39-56
rural 55-41

(weak for Republicans by historical standards in rural America, extremely weak for Republicans by historical standards in Suburbia -- it could be that Suburbia is losing its original semi-rural character and developing urban characteristics)

Clinton 16  6-91
Trump 16  88-10
others 16 20-72
did not vote 16 35-53

(It looks as if Trump has gained few supporters from those who voted for Clinton, Johnson, Stein, McMullen, etc. ... more people voted against than for Trump in 2016).


voted in 2014  43-54
non-vote 14    37-52

(A 2014-style electorate which gave the Republicans the Senate in 2014 disapproves of Trump!)

Obama 12  17-80
Romney 12  88-18
others 12  52-41

(a wash, except for the small number of voters for mostly-Right third parties. Obama won decisively, of course, so Obama-to-Trump and Romney-anti-Trump won't be much of a difference).

Northeast 41-56
Midwest 38-56
South 47-51
West 39-56

(So much for the chance of Trump to hold onto the Rust Belt or Pennsylvania!)

male 44-52
female 40-55

(Real men hate sexual or domestic violence against women!)

18-29   29-61
30-44  40-53
45-54  45-51
55-64  42-55
65+  51-49

(Trump has an edge among the elderly -- barely. Otherwise he fails with all age groups).

Generation Z (18-21) 29-61
Millennial (22-37) 36-55
X  (38-53) 42-53
Boom (54-72) 47-52

(Closer than usual to the definitions used by Howe and Strauss, which I will be showing in a Forum related to their theory)

Some college: 45-53
Bachelor's degree: 38-60
Post-graduate degree: 38-60 

(is it any wonder that Donald Trump said "I love low-information voters"? He needs them!)

Income under 50K 38-56
Income 50K-100K 47-50
Income 100K or more 44-52

(Income seems to be a weak correlation to voting; until 2008 low income and Democratic voting heavily correlated; in 2008 income had a negative correlation with Democratic voting, and in 2012 it was practically neutral. Low income heavily reflects either membership in a minority group or rural residence).

Ethnicity

white 48-48
black  13-83
Latino 29-67
other  28-61

(Trump breaks even among whites in approval, and if approval and disapproval correlate strictly to voting, then Trump could not win even the "whitest" states. For example, if Trump should break even in Montana and South Dakota among whites, then the largest minority in those states, First Peoples, would be enough to decide an election against him).


More is included (302 pages altogether) and much of it relates to preferences in Congress and how people vote based on their priorities.



       
 

[GeorgiaModerate]

CBS/YouGov state polls:

Arizona, Oct. 2-5, 1010 RV

Approve 46 (strongly 29)
Disapprove 53 (strongly 39)

New Jersey, Oct. 2-5, 1009 RV

Approve 43 (strongly 27)
Disapprove 57 (strongly 48)

Tennessee, Oct. 2-5, 1002 RV

Approve 61 (strongly 37)
Disapprove 39 (strongly 32)

Texas, Oct. 2-5, 1031 RV

Approve 51 (strongly 33)
Disapprove 49 (strongly 40)

[JG]

New Jersey's seem especially high to me?

[GeorgiaModerate]

New Jersey's seem especially high to me?

Yes, it's not in line with other recent results from NJ.  Either Trump's standing has improved there or this is a bit of an outlier.