The Bagel23/X Marks the Spot Cellar of Exquisitely Aged Content

[Badger]

I see we don't have a place to compile posts that, in hindsight, were not very prescient. So in the spirit of good fun, I christen this thread for that very purpose.

From the NY-14 thread (there are probably many more there):

Safe Crowley

Justice dems are walking into the bar thinking that they are the hot cr@p. Let's show them up tonight just like we have been doing.

In fairness, in the absence of any publicized polling, these weren't totally unreasonable predictions.

Personally, I predicted anything from a Crowley blowout a la Donovan v. Grimm at one extreme, and the actual results at the other.

[Badger]

Toomey is finished atm, this is probably Dems 2nd likeliest gain (I still think Feingold will win)

Idiotic Atlasian overconfidence. Who is this guy anyways? Sad!

Um, do you have any recollection of how unfavorable the polls were for Toomey most of the race, or how very narrowly he won?

His re-election was arguably the second biggest upset/comeback of 2016 only behind Trump winning.

[Badger]

Franken and Conyers will not resign.  Thus two more Democrat lifelines to Moore.  How many more will come before the 12th.

Franken says I will change and commit no more sexual assaults.  Trump can say I have have already changed.  Bill Clinton says "change". Who? Me?

Why does the spell feature change Franken to Frankenstein. Clairvoyance?

This is downright adorable.

[Badger]

Ouch! lmao.

Ben Kenobi is literally one of the worst predictors of Elections on this forum, and that's saying a ton.

[Badger]

Congratulations Governor of Virginia Justin Fairfax.

In fairness, that would have been a near Universal belief in that period between the Northram blackface scandal hitting the news and Fairfax's sexual assault history becoming public.

[Badger]

Just out of curiosity, how much do you think Bevin loses by? And your guesses for the other statewide races while you are at it.

Beshear +5. Attorney General and SoS +10 each.

I haven't even thought about the other races, since most of those have been Republican forever.

And what did you think in 2015 around this same time buddy?

Conway +5 just like every poll says.

Ah, I see.

In fairness, it was a lot easier to believe considering Bevan blew the polls out of the water back then.

This is not to say, though, that Bandits takes on this race aren't characteristically ridiculous

[Badger]

SCOTUS goes along with it.

Basically all indications to this point are that they will not.

There are 5 Republican partisans on the court, of which at least 2, maybe three have already tipped their hand in favour of autocracy.

 In light of recent events, this post doesn't seem so far fetched after all

[Badger]

There's really nothing preventing state legislatures from assigning electors now, just that all 50 states have laws requiring them to go to the winner of the popular vote in that state and it's such a radical position to repeal it that even the Republican Legislatures and Governors aren't willing to. Someone like Mastriano would be willing to buy still unclear if he could get such a bill passed.

Repealing it after the election would probably be struck down by even the most conservative court as an ex post facto law and we saw how interested courts were in Trump's post-election attempts. Still any case that would potentially push gerrymandering even further is quite worrisome.

Why couldn't they just pass a law today saying "the state's presidential electors will be determined via popular vote; however, a majority of the legislature, within three weeks of the election, may override this and determine the presidential electors" if they passed it before the election?

There's nothing in the Constitution that says they couldn't do that.

They could yes, I'm talking more about when crackpots like Mastriano wanted to pass something like that after the 2020 election and went nowhere.

As noted Arizona had such a bill but the House Speaker opposed it and killed it before a vote with some parliamentary roadblocks. But he's term limited and won't be around next term.

You mean that crackpot masteriano who has nearly even odds of becoming the next governor of pennsylvania? I think you're proving the point here.

IIRC he has dropped in the polls tangibly sin e then.