Could Trump LOSE the White vote?

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Could Trump's Democratic opponent (obviously this would be Beto O'Rourke, but we can leave this to the imagination for now) get a higher share of the White vote than Trump?

For my part, I would think it is very unlikely that he will outright lose the White vote. Even in 2018, Republicans handily won the White vote by about 13 points. So it would take a true mega-landslide for Trump to lose the White vote. Trump has White Power on his side.

[NewYorkExpress]

No, and I believe Trump will actually improve his numbers with white voters.

What Democrats need to do in the states they just took power in, is suppress the White Vote. That is the key to beating Trump.

[History505]

Highly unlikely Trump loses white vote support in 2020, specifically white men. If the nominee is Brown or Bullock, then that voting bloc might be in play.

[pppolitics]

No, he couldn't.

The more interesting question is: Could he lose the white non-evangelical votes?

[James Monroe]

Statistically speaking, no Democratic candidate could ever beat a Republican in the modern political climate unless that election is a landslide.


As electoral politics gets more polarized by race lines there isn't any scenario where the hypothetical Democratic candidate could win white voters over Trump.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

He could. He probably won't.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

No. The only question is if he could "lose" white women. Obama lost white women by 7% in 2008, but actually won them in the electoral college, because the southern states bring the Democratic share of the white vote down so much.

[Very Legal & Very Cool]

No, 55% is probably his floor among white voters. What did he win in 2016, 60%?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

If the election were held this week, possibly.

[Very Legal & Very Cool]

If the election were held this week, possibly.

When is the last time you interacted with conservatives?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

If the election were held this week, possibly.

When is the last time you interacted with conservatives?

Every day. Most right wingers I know despise him unless they are part of his cult. They are willing to hold their nose to vote for him, provided a good economy, a functioning administration, proper leadership of the military, and the continuation of traditionally Republican foreign policy. Pull that rug out, and you've got a substantial number of white voters who will abandon him.

But mainly a crashing stock market. We're almost in bear territory, and coming close to turning back all gains since Trump took office. And while the stock market is not the economy, it is the headline number and (other than possibly home value) the number one determinant of household wealth among the GOP core.

Things right now are really, really bad for this administration. In free-fall since the midterms. Worse than any time since he took office. An election today would be a bloodbath - we're talking about a 10 to 15 point win for the Democrats, and very possibly a plurality of white voters.

[Very Legal & Very Cool]

If the election were held this week, possibly.

When is the last time you interacted with conservatives?

Every day. Most right wingers I know despise him unless they are part of his cult. They are willing to hold their nose to vote for him, provided a good economy, a functioning administration, proper leadership of the military, and the continuation of traditionally Republican foreign policy. Pull that rug out, and you've got a substantial number of white voters who will abandon him.

But mainly a crashing stock market. We're almost in bear territory, and coming close to turning back all gains since Trump took office. And while the stock market is not the economy, it is the headline number and (other than possibly home value) the number one determinant of household wealth among the GOP core.

Things right now are really, really bad for this administration. In free-fall since the midterms. Worse than any time since he took office. An election today would be a bloodbath - we're talking about a 10 to 15 point win for the Democrats, and very possibly a plurality of white voters.

Funny, the stock market has taken a nosedive, not just this month but since the start of the year. Largely because of Trump's own policies and yet the right wingerS I've talked to continue to believe the economy is booming. I do not think that you could convince a majority of white people to vote Democrat even during a good campaign.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

If the election were held this week, possibly.

When is the last time you interacted with conservatives?

Every day. Most right wingers I know despise him unless they are part of his cult. They are willing to hold their nose to vote for him, provided a good economy, a functioning administration, proper leadership of the military, and the continuation of traditionally Republican foreign policy. Pull that rug out, and you've got a substantial number of white voters who will abandon him.

But mainly a crashing stock market. We're almost in bear territory, and coming close to turning back all gains since Trump took office. And while the stock market is not the economy, it is the headline number and (other than possibly home value) the number one determinant of household wealth among the GOP core.

Things right now are really, really bad for this administration. In free-fall since the midterms. Worse than any time since he took office. An election today would be a bloodbath - we're talking about a 10 to 15 point win for the Democrats, and very possibly a plurality of white voters.

Funny, the stock market has taken a nosedive, not just this month but since the start of the year. Largely because of Trump's own policies and yet the right wingerS I've talked to continue to believe the economy is booming. I do not think that you could convince a majority of white people to vote Democrat even during a good campaign.

It's been volatile all year, but the last record high for the S&P was Oct 3.

33% of white voters identify as Republicans. 37% as Independents (Pew). A lot of those independents are Republicans in all but name, but a whole lot of them are Obama-Trump voters. I'll focus on the Midwest, because this is the region where the Democrats have bled the most in white support in recent election cycles.

What would a Democrat winning a plurality of white voters look like? Landslide victories in Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa, a solid victory in Ohio, and a close race in Indiana. It would mean a massive sea change from 2016, but essentially a total collapse of the Midwestern support for Trump among everyone not identifying as Republicans or MAGA. It would mean McCain-Romney-Trump voters turning on him. And people who voted GOP in the 2018 midterms turning on him.

Unlikely, but as things go from bad, to worse, to off the cliff, to plunging into the caldera, who knows? Make every white, upper-middle-income household tens of thousands of dollars poorer, and enact trade policies that hurt manufacturing and farmers' bottom lines? Make it obvious there is no adult leadership in the White House, and the administration is crumbling while traversing a minefield of scandals? These voters are more concerned with results than with party or ideology.

Your Fox-News-watching MAGA folks and evangelicals are not a majority of white people. Or even a third of white people. You don't have to win them over to eke out a white plurality.

[Medal506]

I think Richard Ojeda would do the best with the white vote as a democrat but I'm not sure if he could win a majority of white voters.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I think Richard Ojeda would do the best with the white vote as a democrat but I'm not sure if he could win a majority of white voters.

Richard Ojeda. Yeah, he'd do great with coastal white liberals (/sarcasm).

[Adam Griffin]

No, he couldn't.

The more interesting question is: Could he lose the white non-evangelical votes?

Absolutely - and likely did even in 2016. Doing some rough calcs from exit poll data and using the proportions available in this article to reverse-engineer the totals, Democrats won white non-evangelicals by 19 points in 2018 (58-39).

That includes a whopping 33 point Democratic win (65-32) among white college non-evangelicals and a 4-point Democratic win (50-46) among white non-college non-evangelicals.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No,he won't lose the white vote. Blacks and Latinos make up 40% of the population and Whites make up 60%. Dems win 90% of the minority vote and only need marginal numbers against whites.

[Bojack Horseman]

No and this is why I say that Trumpism will continue long after Trump. As whites lose the numerical majority, even Bernie supporters will become increasingly reactionary conservative/racist and embrace cynical, white nationalist politics when that brand of Trumpism fits their fears. This is why unless we see a California-like surge in non-white voters over a decade, I don’t see demographic change turning America into California. Whites will just vote more and more Republican and the GOP will be able to win elections by winning 97% of the white vote while tanking even further with minorities.

[Grassroots]

No, they will continue to trend R as they realize that the democratic party is not in their best interests.

[Sir Mohamed]

Nah, not in the US as whole. He may lose the white FEMALE vote, though.

[Wazza [INACTIVE]]

No way, he won it by over 20 points.

[Intell]

No, he couldn't.

The more interesting question is: Could he lose the white non-evangelical votes?

Absolutely - and likely did even in 2016. Doing some rough calcs from exit poll data and using the proportions available in this article to reverse-engineer the totals, Democrats won white non-evangelicals by 19 points in 2018 (58-39).

That includes a whopping 33 point Democratic win (65-32) among white college non-evangelicals and a 4-point Democratic win (50-46) among white non-college non-evangelicals.

Holy Jesus.

[wbrocks67]

It's doubtful.

2016: R +20 (Trump: 57%, Clinton: 37%)
2018: R +10 (Republicans: 54%, Democrats: 44%)

Even in a D+9 popular vote year, Rs still won it by 10. I doubt he wins it by 2016 margins though. Maybe like +15 in the middle.

[Stranger in a strange land]

No, he couldn't.

The more interesting question is: Could he lose the white non-evangelical votes?

Absolutely - and likely did even in 2016. Doing some rough calcs from exit poll data and using the proportions available in this article to reverse-engineer the totals, Democrats won white non-evangelicals by 19 points in 2018 (58-39).

That includes a whopping 33 point Democratic win (65-32) among white college non-evangelicals and a 4-point Democratic win (50-46) among white non-college non-evangelicals.

Holy Jesus.

Another interesting thing is that there's virtually no college gap among white evangelicals, though there's a huge one among non-evangelicals.

[SN2903]

No I think Trump will be near 65% of the white vote in 2020.