MI-GOV: Who wins Dem primary?

[SingingAnalyst]

Whitmer is the "favorite", but we know how well that worked for one Hillary Clinton on March 8, 2016.

According to one poll, Thanedar is doing well with African-Americans, a significant share of MI's Dem vote. According to the same poll, el-Sayed is actually leading among women under 50. El-Sayed does have the endorsement of the nurses' association.

I vote Whitmer, but she'll be lucky to get much over 40%.

[Zaybay]

I want Abdul, but Im pretty sure it will be Whitmer.

[Chief Justice Keef]

If I had to guess the final vote:

Whitmer - 45%
El-Sayed - 31%
Thanedar - 24%

[SingingAnalyst]

If I had to guess the final vote:

Whitmer - 45%
El-Sayed - 31%
Thanedar - 24%

I say that's almost spot-on. I am thinking
Whitmer 42.5%
El-Sayed 28.5%
Thanedar 26.5%
Write-in 2.5%

[KingSweden]

If I had to guess the final vote:

Whitmer - 45%
El-Sayed - 31%
Thanedar - 24%

I’d give both Gretchen and Abdul another point or two at Shri’s expense

[libertpaulian]

Anyone who votes Thanedar should be perma-banned.

[MAINEiac4434]

I want Abdul, but Im pretty sure it will be Whitmer.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Not every woman is going to end up like Clinton. Whitmer will probably win.

[Oryxslayer]

Not every woman is going to end up like Clinton. Whitmer will probably win.

If anything, she will probably end up like every other serious female Dem this cycle, and overpreform. Dems like their female candidates this year, which is why I am not to worried about the Florida primary as well.

[Maxwell]

Whitmer's a sizable favorite now - I think she'll get a hair under 50% with El-Sayed narrowly edging out Thaneder at like 25-26% or something.

[Rookie Yinzer]

According to one poll, Thanedar is doing well with African-Americans, a significant share of MI's Dem vote.

Why would he be? I haven't paid much attention to this race but I would expect older black voters (disproportionately women) to be voting Whitmer and younger black voters voting El-Sayed.

[Beet]

Not every woman is going to end up like Clinton. Whitmer will probably win.

Every woman is potentially subject to misogyny - which some folks here will never accept, but I was proven right about Hillary when very few people agreed with me, and it looks like I'll be proven right about Whitmer.

[Ohioguy29]

According to one poll, Thanedar is doing well with African-Americans, a significant share of MI's Dem vote.

Why would he be? I haven't paid much attention to this race but I would expect older black voters (disproportionately women) to be voting Whitmer and younger black voters voting El-Sayed.

Detroit connection probably

[PragmaticPopulist]

I think Whitmer's the favorite, but after the 2016 Primary, I think anything could happen. Worst thing that could happen is that Thanedar pulls a Sanders.

[Zaybay]

I think Whitmer's the favorite, but after the 2016 Primary, I think anything could happen. Worst thing that could happen is that Thanedar pulls a Sanders.

If anyone pulls a Sanders, it would probably be the candidate Sanders is having a rally for.

[Illiniwek]

Anyone who votes Thanedar should be perma-banned.

[Ronnie]

I’ll make a bold (and probably wrong) prediction:

Whitmer: 43%
El-Sayed: 41%
Thanedar: 16%

Thanedar just strikes me as a paper tiger.  I expect most of his support to flow to El-Sayed as more people realize this is a two-person race.

[SingingAnalyst]

Perhaps not the most unbiased poll (though 42% of those respondents who voted in the 2016 Dem primary voted Clinton, so it may not be too far off), but it shows El-Sayed behind Whitmer by just 5.8%. (Nearly a quarter are undecided, which probably helps El-Sayed).

https://abdulformichigan.com/sites/default/files/AbdulElSayedToplines_ChangeResearch.pdf

[Mr. Smith]

Not every woman is going to end up like Clinton. Whitmer will probably win.

If anything, she will probably end up like every other serious female Dem this cycle, and overpreform. Dems like their female candidates this year, which is why I am not to worried about the Florida primary as well.

Are you saying Cary Kennedy wasn't serious in Colorado?

[Mr. Smith]

As for me, I'll be really bold and anticipate an El-Sayed victory. Probably by a razor thin margin against Whitmer.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

I predict margins that essentially mirror Illinois, with Whitmer as the JB stand in, AES as Biss and Thanedar as Kennedy.

[Rhenna]

I predict margins that essentially mirror Illinois, with Whitmer as the JB stand in, AES as Biss and Thanedar as Kennedy.

Same. This just isn't the right race for an Ocasio sized upset.
Anyways, I hope Whitmer wins for sure.

[Greedo punched first]

Whitmer

[Progressive Pessimist]

Not every woman is going to end up like Clinton. Whitmer will probably win.

Every woman is potentially subject to misogyny - which some folks here will never accept, but I was proven right about Hillary when very few people agreed with me, and it looks like I'll be proven right about Whitmer.

Sexism is a broad problem in most of the world but this year seems somewhat different with how successful female candidates have been. We're seeing a change.

By the way, I must note how interesting it is that you still advocate against sexism in politics yet now identify as a Trumpian Republican. More than likely, someone like that is in denial of sexism.  Embracing the most chauvinistic, toxic masculine President in our country's history, while scorning misogyny is a bit of a confusing ideology.

[Beet]

Not every woman is going to end up like Clinton. Whitmer will probably win.

Every woman is potentially subject to misogyny - which some folks here will never accept, but I was proven right about Hillary when very few people agreed with me, and it looks like I'll be proven right about Whitmer.

Sexism is a broad problem in most of the world but this year seems somewhat different with how successful female candidates have been. We're seeing a change.

By the way, I must note how interesting it is that you still advocate against sexism in politics yet now identify as a Trumpian Republican. More than likely, someone like that is in denial of sexism.  Embracing the most chauvinistic, toxic masculine President in our country's history, while scorning misogyny is a bit of a confusing ideology.

The left doesn't really care about sexism. It's a lost cause. In politics, the mechanisms are always too vague to get a handle on, it usually manifests itself in very general ways like enthusiasm gaps or unexplained likability/unlikability. So there's no real way to fight against it. You end up looking like an idpol-obsessed idiot chasing phantoms. So I gave up that fight. Stacey Abrams won because her race is more significant than her gender in the eyes of Democrats. Other than that, I have a hard time seeing the Democrats let a woman have the nod for the Governorship of a state was big as Michigan, in this day and age.

Trump has some chauvinistic tendencies but he has hired plenty of women (Press Secretary, CIA Director, DHS Secretary). Misogyny will always be an issue close to my heart but there are more important problems right now.