2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please

[Zaybay]

If that's anywhere close to being accurate, then Democrats could pick up 4, maybe even 5 Congressional Districts in Virginia.

4 is probably the limit. With this GCB, I could definitely see Comstock getting blanched and Taylor/Brat losing. I'm not entirely confident Leslie Cockburn can win in VA-05 because she's such a godawful candidate but she might get swept in by the wave and the fact that she's facing a bigfoot erotica enthusiast. Wittman, Griffith, and the Goodlatte seat are almost assuredly staying in the R column.

It indeed cannot be overstated just how badly Leslie Cockburn sucks, but even Joe Walsh and Allen West were pulled over by the wave, so it's certainly possible.

She's literally the worst competitive Democratic candidate of the year. She makes Scott Wallace and TJ Cox look good. Precisely why it's so incredible she has any hint of a chance this year.

TJ Cox is bad, but Scott Wallace is below-average. Hes got money, and is likely to win the district.

Cockburn just sucks, and has nothing going for her.

[wesmoorenerd]

If that's anywhere close to being accurate, then Democrats could pick up 4, maybe even 5 Congressional Districts in Virginia.

4 is probably the limit. With this GCB, I could definitely see Comstock getting blanched and Taylor/Brat losing. I'm not entirely confident Leslie Cockburn can win in VA-05 because she's such a godawful candidate but she might get swept in by the wave and the fact that she's facing a bigfoot erotica enthusiast. Wittman, Griffith, and the Goodlatte seat are almost assuredly staying in the R column.

It indeed cannot be overstated just how badly Leslie Cockburn sucks, but even Joe Walsh and Allen West were pulled over by the wave, so it's certainly possible.

She's literally the worst competitive Democratic candidate of the year. She makes Scott Wallace and TJ Cox look good. Precisely why it's so incredible she has any hint of a chance this year.

TJ Cox is bad, but Scott Wallace is below-average. Hes got money, and is likely to win the district.

Cockburn just sucks, and has nothing going for her.

TJ Cox isn't really a bad candidate in general, but he's an awful fit for his district. If he was running in a different district, he would probably be doing fine. Scott Wallace would be bad anywhere. Sure, he can self-fund, but that doesn't change the basics of why he's so bad. He's remarkably uninspiring, he doesn't have a remotely compelling story, and he managed to get outraised 300K to 400K in a race where he should be dominating fundraising. That's not even mentioning the allegations of antisemitism against him. He's a bad candidate.

Cockburn is way worse, though. She mishandled the "Bigfoot erotica" thing so hard that she somehow came out of the situation worse than the guy who actually posted the Bigfoot erotica.

[Zaybay]

If that's anywhere close to being accurate, then Democrats could pick up 4, maybe even 5 Congressional Districts in Virginia.

4 is probably the limit. With this GCB, I could definitely see Comstock getting blanched and Taylor/Brat losing. I'm not entirely confident Leslie Cockburn can win in VA-05 because she's such a godawful candidate but she might get swept in by the wave and the fact that she's facing a bigfoot erotica enthusiast. Wittman, Griffith, and the Goodlatte seat are almost assuredly staying in the R column.

It indeed cannot be overstated just how badly Leslie Cockburn sucks, but even Joe Walsh and Allen West were pulled over by the wave, so it's certainly possible.

She's literally the worst competitive Democratic candidate of the year. She makes Scott Wallace and TJ Cox look good. Precisely why it's so incredible she has any hint of a chance this year.

TJ Cox is bad, but Scott Wallace is below-average. Hes got money, and is likely to win the district.

Cockburn just sucks, and has nothing going for her.

TJ Cox isn't really a bad candidate in general, but he's an awful fit for his district. If he was running in a different district, he would probably be doing fine. Scott Wallace would be bad anywhere. Sure, he can self-fund, but that doesn't change the basics of why he's so bad. He's remarkably uninspiring, he doesn't have a remotely compelling story, and he managed to get outraised 300K to 400K in a race where he should be dominating fundraising. That's not even mentioning the allegations of antisemitism against him. He's a bad candidate.

Cockburn is way worse, though. She mishandled the "Bigfoot erotica" thing so hard that she somehow came out of the situation worse than the guy who actually posted the Bigfoot erotica.

True, Wallace is rather unremarkable, he seems like a guy who would be an excellent policy maker, and a terrible campaigner. Either way, I still see him winning.

[BudgieForce]

I'm not sure about anyone else, but I've entirely stopped paying attention to the generic ballot. All the numbers we get are from iffy online trackers.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

If that's anywhere close to being accurate, then Democrats could pick up 4, maybe even 5 Congressional Districts in Virginia.

4 is probably the limit. With this GCB, I could definitely see Comstock getting blanched and Taylor/Brat losing. I'm not entirely confident Leslie Cockburn can win in VA-05 because she's such a godawful candidate but she might get swept in by the wave and the fact that she's facing a bigfoot erotica enthusiast. Wittman, Griffith, and the Goodlatte seat are almost assuredly staying in the R column.

It indeed cannot be overstated just how badly Leslie Cockburn sucks, but even Joe Walsh and Allen West were pulled over by the wave, so it's certainly possible.

She's literally the worst competitive Democratic candidate of the year. She makes Scott Wallace and TJ Cox look good. Precisely why it's so incredible she has any hint of a chance this year.

TJ Cox is bad, but Scott Wallace is below-average. Hes got money, and is likely to win the district.

Cockburn just sucks, and has nothing going for her.

TJ Cox isn't really a bad candidate in general, but he's an awful fit for his district. If he was running in a different district, he would probably be doing fine. Scott Wallace would be bad anywhere. Sure, he can self-fund, but that doesn't change the basics of why he's so bad. He's remarkably uninspiring, he doesn't have a remotely compelling story, and he managed to get outraised 300K to 400K in a race where he should be dominating fundraising. That's not even mentioning the allegations of antisemitism against him. He's a bad candidate.

I give TJ Cox the benefit of doubt, largely due to the political moves by the Huertas in this race.

This race needed a wide-open primary and Dems didn't get one

[Zaybay]

I'm not sure about anyone else, but I've entirely stopped paying attention to the generic ballot. All the numbers we get are from iffy online trackers.

The rise occurring recently for the Rs is because Ipos, yes, them, went from D double digits, to D+2.

[wesmoorenerd]

If that's anywhere close to being accurate, then Democrats could pick up 4, maybe even 5 Congressional Districts in Virginia.

4 is probably the limit. With this GCB, I could definitely see Comstock getting blanched and Taylor/Brat losing. I'm not entirely confident Leslie Cockburn can win in VA-05 because she's such a godawful candidate but she might get swept in by the wave and the fact that she's facing a bigfoot erotica enthusiast. Wittman, Griffith, and the Goodlatte seat are almost assuredly staying in the R column.

It indeed cannot be overstated just how badly Leslie Cockburn sucks, but even Joe Walsh and Allen West were pulled over by the wave, so it's certainly possible.

She's literally the worst competitive Democratic candidate of the year. She makes Scott Wallace and TJ Cox look good. Precisely why it's so incredible she has any hint of a chance this year.

TJ Cox is bad, but Scott Wallace is below-average. Hes got money, and is likely to win the district.

Cockburn just sucks, and has nothing going for her.

TJ Cox isn't really a bad candidate in general, but he's an awful fit for his district. If he was running in a different district, he would probably be doing fine. Scott Wallace would be bad anywhere. Sure, he can self-fund, but that doesn't change the basics of why he's so bad. He's remarkably uninspiring, he doesn't have a remotely compelling story, and he managed to get outraised 300K to 400K in a race where he should be dominating fundraising. That's not even mentioning the allegations of antisemitism against him. He's a bad candidate.

Cockburn is way worse, though. She mishandled the "Bigfoot erotica" thing so hard that she somehow came out of the situation worse than the guy who actually posted the Bigfoot erotica.

True, Wallace is rather unremarkable, he seems like a guy who would be an excellent policy maker, and a terrible campaigner. Either way, I still see him winning.

That sounds like a good way to put it. He's actually pretty progressive and I'd love to see him in Congress but he's a seriously bad candidate. If he wins, it's safe to say he got saved by the national environment.

[wesmoorenerd]

If that's anywhere close to being accurate, then Democrats could pick up 4, maybe even 5 Congressional Districts in Virginia.

4 is probably the limit. With this GCB, I could definitely see Comstock getting blanched and Taylor/Brat losing. I'm not entirely confident Leslie Cockburn can win in VA-05 because she's such a godawful candidate but she might get swept in by the wave and the fact that she's facing a bigfoot erotica enthusiast. Wittman, Griffith, and the Goodlatte seat are almost assuredly staying in the R column.

It indeed cannot be overstated just how badly Leslie Cockburn sucks, but even Joe Walsh and Allen West were pulled over by the wave, so it's certainly possible.

She's literally the worst competitive Democratic candidate of the year. She makes Scott Wallace and TJ Cox look good. Precisely why it's so incredible she has any hint of a chance this year.

TJ Cox is bad, but Scott Wallace is below-average. Hes got money, and is likely to win the district.

Cockburn just sucks, and has nothing going for her.

TJ Cox isn't really a bad candidate in general, but he's an awful fit for his district. If he was running in a different district, he would probably be doing fine. Scott Wallace would be bad anywhere. Sure, he can self-fund, but that doesn't change the basics of why he's so bad. He's remarkably uninspiring, he doesn't have a remotely compelling story, and he managed to get outraised 300K to 400K in a race where he should be dominating fundraising. That's not even mentioning the allegations of antisemitism against him. He's a bad candidate.

I give TJ Cox the benefit of doubt, largely because I believe the Huertas lost the district for Dems here by scaring everyone off until dropping out at the last minute

Cox is probably better than Huerta at least. If Rudy Salas had jumped in the race would definitely be more competitive, although I bet he's waiting until 2020 when turnout will be better.

[136or142]

I'd be more interested in the opinions of Scott Wallace, TJ Cox and Leslie Cockburn here if there were actual hard evidence or polling data to back up these assertions.

Speaking of polling data

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1027643048392617984

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I'd be more interested in the opinions of Scott Wallace, TJ Cox and Leslie Cockburn here if there were actual hard evidence or polling data to back up these assertions.

Speaking of polling data

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1027643048392617984

Both are pretty horrid.

[morgieb]

I'd be more interested in the opinions of Scott Wallace, TJ Cox and Leslie Cockburn here if there were actual hard evidence or polling data to back up these assertions.

Speaking of polling data

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1027643048392617984

For Cox, Valadao got over 60% of the vote in the jungle primary in June. That is a big sign. I'm pretty sure I've seen Wallace doing poorly in some polls too.

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1027643048392617984

Please no.

[Politician]

Grayson is getting that much?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Grayson is getting that much?

Why can't he just stop running for office!?

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1027721445869277185?s=21

We will have to see if the Kim camp has a poll they can counter this with.

[Devils30]

This is realistic for Trump's numbers based on 2016 results and Dems performance in suburbs nationally.

[Zaybay]

Nice, though it is an internal, I am skeptical that Kim is anywhere close to the lead.

[Politician]

That CA-39 poll...

[ajc0918]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1027721445869277185?s=21

We will have to see if the Kim camp has a poll they can counter this with.

D+1

[Hindsight was 2020]

It’s an internal but if Kim has anything near that then OC could be a slaughter

[OneJ]

Even though that’s an internal, that’s a damn good result for Cisneros. This is D+1.

[136or142]

Even though Gil Cisneros is not regarded here as a great candidate, neither is Young Kim.  She was a one term state assemblywoman who lost reelection because she spent a good deal of her time on right wing social conservative issues like her opposition to LGBTQ rights.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Being up 11 and over 50 in this sort of district is good even for an internal. I think we pick this up.

[136or142]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1027643048392617984

Please no.

Holy level of support Bruce (or Wayne)!

[136or142]

I'd be more interested in the opinions of Scott Wallace, TJ Cox and Leslie Cockburn here if there were actual hard evidence or polling data to back up these assertions.

Speaking of polling data

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1027643048392617984

For Cox, Valadao got over 60% of the vote in the jungle primary in June. That is a big sign. I'm pretty sure I've seen Wallace doing poorly in some polls too.

True with Valadao/Cox but that was a couple months ago.  I looked on Wallace and that doesn't seem to be true.  It wouldn't surprise me if all the negative comments here about Scott Wallace have led people to believe that his polling must be bad.  According to Real Clear Politics, the only published poll is from Monmouth from May 31-June 3 and it showed

Fitzpatrick 48%
Wallace 47%

The poll even pointed out that Fitzpatrick was personally popular, so the anecdotal stories on this race since that have mentioned 'Fitzpatrick is in strong shape because he's personally popular' were already been taken into account by this poll.

Among all potential voters, 53% have a favorable view of Fitzpatrick compared to just 22% who
have an unfavorable view, with 25% expressing no opinion. The challenger Wallace is seen favorably by
32% of voters and unfavorably by 15%, with 53% having no opinion. It is worth noting that 21% of
Wallace voters actually have a favorable opinion of the Republican incumbent.
“Fitzpatrick would be a shoe-in if he was running in a political vacuum. But he’s not. President
Trump changes the entire complexion of this race,” said Murray.

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_pa_060418.pdf/

This was a small sample of only 254 likely voters and the registered voter sample of 451 people did give Fitzpatrick a larger lead of 49-42% However, this is the only independent poll of the race (a DCCC poll during mid may showed a similar 48-46% Fitzgerald lead.)  So, there are no polls that show Wallace performing poorly. This poll result is comparative with many other polls that show very close races between incumbent Republicans and Democratic challengers, for instance, Bruce Poliquin vs Jared Golden in Maine.  However, for some reason, I don't see anybody posting that Jared Golden is a poor candidate.

I have to go back to to what I wrote earlier, the reason there is this frequent refrain that Scott Wallace and Leslie Cockburn are 'bad candidates' seems to be entirely related to the right wing Jewish activists who refer to them as 'Anti Semitic' and that seems to have been picked up on here.

I don't know if it's the same people, but according to a number of posters here, Joshua Svaty was a lock to win the Democratic nomination for Governor in Kansas.  Without actual data or qualitative evidence, I think it would be wise to just pass on the personal opinions of who is and isn't a poor candidate.