2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please

[OneJ]

Democratic internal of Alaska's At Large Congressional District:

Don Young (GOP): 40
Alyse Galvin (Dem): 36

Trump Favorability:
Favorable:  45
Unfavorable: 53

Isn't Galvin technically an Independent?

Yep, but de facto Dem tbh.

Not a good poll for Galvin, especially considering that Alaska’s polling is often garbage and that subtract 5 rule for internals.

[CapoteMonster]

Democracy Corps shows the Democrats up 9 among all respondents, and double digits among the most interested.

http://www.democracycorps.com/attachments/article/1090/Dcor_GOP_July%20National_Memo_8.3.18_for%20release.pdf

[136or142]

Democratic internal poll
Josh Harder 48%
Jeff Denham 48%

https://twitter.com/joshua_harder/status/1026585613330309120

[Greedo punched first]

Ami Bera looks safe. This is a Grant internal.

Bera (D): 50%
Grant (R): 41%
Undecided: 9%

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Ami Bera looks safe. This is a Grant internal.

Bera (D): 50%
Grant (R): 41%
Undecided: 9%

Good, but Bart Stupak would be leading by twenty.

[Gass3268]

Ami Bera looks safe. This is a Grant internal.

Bera (D): 50%
Grant (R): 41%
Undecided: 9%

Good, but Bart Stupak would be leading by twenty.

Bart Stupak would not be leading CA-07 by 20.

[IceSpear]

Ami Bera looks safe. This is a Grant internal.

Bera (D): 50%
Grant (R): 41%
Undecided: 9%

Why in the world would he release this? There's literally no silver lining for him here. Not even #Beraunder50.

[scutosaurus]

Ami Bera looks safe. This is a Grant internal.

Bera (D): 50%
Grant (R): 41%
Undecided: 9%

Good, but Bart Stupak would be leading by twenty.

[BlueDogs2020]

DCCC poll of CA-10: All tied up

Denham (GOP): 48
Harder (Dem): 48

Harder winning independents 53-35, Latinos 70-26.

I struggle to see how this is a tie with those crosstab numbers.

Crosstab is never to be trusted. He has OH-12 with a less than 1% chance of Victory and Republican winning by 19%.....

[Doimper]

DCCC poll of CA-10: All tied up

Denham (GOP): 48
Harder (Dem): 48

Harder winning independents 53-35, Latinos 70-26.

These "shock" polls showing entrenched incumbents losing/tied always show up in wave elections, but it feels like they're coming a lot sooner than they did in 2006/10. See also: that Katko poll.

[Zaybay]

DCCC poll of CA-10: All tied up

Denham (GOP): 48
Harder (Dem): 48

Harder winning independents 53-35, Latinos 70-26.

These "shock" polls showing entrenched incumbents losing/tied always show up in wave elections, but it feels like they're coming a lot sooner than they did in 2006/10. See also: that Katko poll.

You make a valid observation. It could be possible that this wave is much larger than we all thought. The GCB has been heavily D, even when in most waves the GCB rises heavily near the end. The GOP was tied/leading by a couple of points in 2014 and 2010 around this part of the cycle, and we have been in the 7-9 range this whole time.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

I may have missed it but what happened to that load of swing/competitive seat polls that was supposed to come out "this week" (several weeks ago IIRC)? I can't find anything on it.

[Brittain33]

I may have missed it but what happened to that load of swing/competitive seat polls that was supposed to come out "this week" (several weeks ago IIRC)? I can't find anything on it.

I think the survey was cancelled because they found there were issues with the results that called into question the methodology... there were posts about a week ago on this. I believe it was The Upshot at NYT pushing this.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I may have missed it but what happened to that load of swing/competitive seat polls that was supposed to come out "this week" (several weeks ago IIRC)? I can't find anything on it.

I think the survey was cancelled because they found there were issues with the results that called into question the methodology... there were posts about a week ago on this. I believe it was The Upshot at NYT pushing this.

Yeah, I think I remember seeing Nate Cohn giving that explanation.

[Gass3268]

Cook moved KS-02 from Lean R to Toss-Up.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

Virginia GCB: D+19

https://twitter.com/VCUnews/status/1027179711426953217

[Devout Centrist]

If that's anywhere close to being accurate, then Democrats could pick up 4, maybe even 5 Congressional Districts in Virginia.

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov, August 5-7. 1289 registered voters.

D: 44 (nc)
R: 41 (+1)

Morning Consult/Politico, August 2-6.  1994 registered voters.

D: 42 (-2)
R: 36 (-1)

[Progressive Pessimist]

Virginia GCB: D+19

https://twitter.com/VCUnews/status/1027179711426953217

Virginia should change its name to New Maryland.

[Yank2133]

Virginia GCB: D+19

https://twitter.com/VCUnews/status/1027179711426953217

Virginia should change its name to New Maryland.

I don't know.

There is still a lot of "old" VA in the boonies.

[Doimper]

Virginia GCB: D+19

https://twitter.com/VCUnews/status/1027179711426953217

Virginia should change its name to New Maryland.

I can hear Harry Byrd spinning in his grave.

[wesmoorenerd]

If that's anywhere close to being accurate, then Democrats could pick up 4, maybe even 5 Congressional Districts in Virginia.

4 is probably the limit. With this GCB, I could definitely see Comstock getting blanched and Taylor/Brat losing. I'm not entirely confident Leslie Cockburn can win in VA-05 because she's such a godawful candidate but she might get swept in by the wave and the fact that she's facing a bigfoot erotica enthusiast. Wittman, Griffith, and the Goodlatte seat are almost assuredly staying in the R column.

[Comrade Funk]

[IceSpear]

If that's anywhere close to being accurate, then Democrats could pick up 4, maybe even 5 Congressional Districts in Virginia.

4 is probably the limit. With this GCB, I could definitely see Comstock getting blanched and Taylor/Brat losing. I'm not entirely confident Leslie Cockburn can win in VA-05 because she's such a godawful candidate but she might get swept in by the wave and the fact that she's facing a bigfoot erotica enthusiast. Wittman, Griffith, and the Goodlatte seat are almost assuredly staying in the R column.

It indeed cannot be overstated just how badly Leslie Cockburn sucks, but even Joe Walsh and Allen West were pulled over by the wave, so it's certainly possible.

[wesmoorenerd]

If that's anywhere close to being accurate, then Democrats could pick up 4, maybe even 5 Congressional Districts in Virginia.

4 is probably the limit. With this GCB, I could definitely see Comstock getting blanched and Taylor/Brat losing. I'm not entirely confident Leslie Cockburn can win in VA-05 because she's such a godawful candidate but she might get swept in by the wave and the fact that she's facing a bigfoot erotica enthusiast. Wittman, Griffith, and the Goodlatte seat are almost assuredly staying in the R column.

It indeed cannot be overstated just how badly Leslie Cockburn sucks, but even Joe Walsh and Allen West were pulled over by the wave, so it's certainly possible.

She's literally the worst competitive Democratic candidate of the year. She makes Scott Wallace and TJ Cox look good. Precisely why it's so incredible she has any hint of a chance this year.