2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please
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Author Topic: 2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please  (Read 144442 times)
LimoLiberal
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« Reply #175 on: July 10, 2018, 03:57:55 PM »
Lol we don't need to analyze crosstab results from Emerson polls. Just look at the topline, put it into the average, and move on. It's a crappy poll.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #176 on: July 10, 2018, 04:03:02 PM »
It’s weird. Time and time again I heard on the “abolish Ice” killed dem momentum but their lead keeps increasing
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YE
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« Reply #177 on: July 10, 2018, 04:03:53 PM »
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on July 10, 2018, 03:53:15 PM
Quote from: YE on July 10, 2018, 03:52:09 PM
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on July 10, 2018, 03:46:31 PM
Emerson-

Democrats: 49% (+4)
Republicans: 42% (+2)

Democrats get an 18-point lead in the midwest, 52-34%

Unrelated to the generic ballot, but it shows that 41% of 18-34 year olds prefer a socialist system compared to 42% who prefer a capitalist system. Ocasio bump?

https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-national-july2018-PR.pdf

That's been the case for quite some time. Dating back to 2012 at least.

I don't really think so...

http://thefederalist.com/2017/11/01/study-nearly-half-millennials-prefer-socialism-capitalism/

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5044527/Survey-shows-millennials-prefer-socialism-capitalism.html

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/04/26/a-majority-of-millennials-now-reject-capitalism-poll-shows/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.f8aaabf14406
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #178 on: July 10, 2018, 04:04:42 PM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on July 10, 2018, 03:57:55 PM
Lol we don't need to analyze crosstab results from Emerson polls. Just look at the topline, put it into the average, and move on. It's a crappy poll.

I'm just telling people what the poll says. I'm sorry your "DEMS ARE DOOMED" narrative sunk two months ago.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #179 on: July 10, 2018, 04:05:52 PM »
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on July 10, 2018, 04:04:42 PM
Quote from: LimoLiberal on July 10, 2018, 03:57:55 PM
Lol we don't need to analyze crosstab results from Emerson polls. Just look at the topline, put it into the average, and move on. It's a crappy poll.

 just telling people what the poll says. I'm sorry your "DEMS ARE DOOMED" narrative sunk two months ago.
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American2020
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« Reply #180 on: July 10, 2018, 05:00:08 PM »
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Gass3268
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« Reply #181 on: July 10, 2018, 05:08:00 PM »
NC-09 (Civitas): McCready +7
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #182 on: July 10, 2018, 05:09:07 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on July 10, 2018, 05:08:00 PM
NC-09 (Civitas): McCready +7



Lean D
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #183 on: July 10, 2018, 05:16:34 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on July 10, 2018, 05:08:00 PM
NC-09 (Civitas): McCready +7


NUT
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #184 on: July 10, 2018, 06:13:52 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on July 10, 2018, 05:08:00 PM
NC-09 (Civitas): McCready +7



Link?
Good For Democrats If True.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #185 on: July 10, 2018, 06:16:28 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on July 10, 2018, 05:08:00 PM
NC-09 (Civitas): McCready +7



Whoa!

Civitas... that’s a NC firm, right?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #186 on: July 10, 2018, 06:20:40 PM »
Quote from: KingSweden on July 10, 2018, 06:16:28 PM
Quote from: Gass3268 on July 10, 2018, 05:08:00 PM
NC-09 (Civitas): McCready +7



Whoa!

Civitas... that’s a NC firm, right?

Yes.  They're a nonprofit that calls themselves "North Carolina's Conservative Voice."  https://www.nccivitas.org/
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KingSweden
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« Reply #187 on: July 10, 2018, 06:23:58 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on July 10, 2018, 06:20:40 PM
Quote from: KingSweden on July 10, 2018, 06:16:28 PM
Quote from: Gass3268 on July 10, 2018, 05:08:00 PM
NC-09 (Civitas): McCready +7



Whoa!

Civitas... that’s a NC firm, right?

Yes.  They're a nonprofit that calls themselves "North Carolina's Conservative Voice."  https://www.nccivitas.org/

McCready +7 in a conservative org’s poll is quite eyebrow-raising
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #188 on: July 10, 2018, 06:25:29 PM »
Yet nobody can actually find a link to this poll... all we have is a post by Gass.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #189 on: July 10, 2018, 06:36:31 PM »
I trust Gass enough to know they're not making it up.
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wesmoorenerd
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« Reply #190 on: July 10, 2018, 06:42:29 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on July 10, 2018, 02:54:39 PM
Ipsos, July 5-9, 1312 registered voters

D: 46 (+3)
R: 34 (-2)

The 538 average is now at D+8.9 (47.9-39.0), which is the largest gap since mid-March.

I know Reuters is noisy as all s*it and this is probably a temporary bump that'll be over by next week, but still...
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #191 on: July 10, 2018, 06:54:54 PM »
Gas can I get a link I can’t find any
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IceSpear
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« Reply #192 on: July 10, 2018, 06:58:12 PM »
Where are the dozens of articles being written about how this Reuters poll spells doom for the Republicans?
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #193 on: July 10, 2018, 06:58:54 PM »
Quote from: IceSpear on July 10, 2018, 06:58:12 PM
Where are the dozens of articles being written about how this Reuters poll spells doom for the Republicans?

Because 2016!
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Devils30
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« Reply #194 on: July 10, 2018, 07:16:41 PM »
Considering the makeup of the NC Supreme Court. I expect a state law challenge to the congressional districts like in Pennsylvania for 2020.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #195 on: July 10, 2018, 07:22:47 PM »
Quote from: Devils30 on July 10, 2018, 07:16:41 PM
Considering the makeup of the NC Supreme Court. I expect a state law challenge to the congressional districts like in Pennsylvania for 2020.

Are there similar provisions in NC’s constitution as PA’s?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #196 on: July 10, 2018, 07:23:55 PM »
Quote from: RubioRepublican on July 10, 2018, 07:00:58 PM
Civitas isn’t the best NC pollster, but if McCready does indeed end up winning this year, I think he might be better off running for statewide office (maybe Senate? Cooper and Stein seem likely to run for re-election anyway) in 2020 than face an uphill battle to hold his seat in a Pres year

Yeah, he'd be a great candidate against Tillis.
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
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« Reply #197 on: July 10, 2018, 07:33:42 PM »
Quote from: KingSweden on July 10, 2018, 07:22:47 PM
Quote from: Devils30 on July 10, 2018, 07:16:41 PM
Considering the makeup of the NC Supreme Court. I expect a state law challenge to the congressional districts like in Pennsylvania for 2020.

Are there similar provisions in NC’s constitution as PA’s?

Even if there is not a similar provision, what is there to stop Dems on the state supreme court from inventing some screwed up logic to strike down gerrymandering?
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wesmoorenerd
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« Reply #198 on: July 10, 2018, 08:18:20 PM »
Quote from: IceSpear on July 10, 2018, 07:23:55 PM
Quote from: RubioRepublican on July 10, 2018, 07:00:58 PM
Civitas isn’t the best NC pollster, but if McCready does indeed end up winning this year, I think he might be better off running for statewide office (maybe Senate? Cooper and Stein seem likely to run for re-election anyway) in 2020 than face an uphill battle to hold his seat in a Pres year

Yeah, he'd be a great candidate against Tillis.

I disagree. Not that he wouldn't be a great candidate against Tillis, but there's two related reasons why he probably shouldn't run for higher office.

1. There are other, arguably better candidates to run against Tillis (and for Burr's seat, since I'm pretty sure Burr has said he's not running for another term) including Jeff Jackson and Anthony Foxx. McCready is a wonderful candidate but for a statewide election in an inelastic, turnout based state like North Carolina the Dems need a candidate that can rally NC's base, with peeling off moderate Republicans being a secondary priority. Jackson and Foxx are strong candidates that would fulfill this role perfectly. McCready? Well, his rhetoric is perfect for his decently red seat, but I'm skeptical of his potential statewide in comparison. He may well be too moderate, odd as that sounds.

2. He could still run for his own seat! McCready is the kind of candidate that, once elected, I could honestly see winning even in bad years. If he gets elected, he certainly has the potential to become entrenched.
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OneJ
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« Reply #199 on: July 11, 2018, 01:26:07 AM »
Quote from: YE on July 10, 2018, 04:03:53 PM
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on July 10, 2018, 03:53:15 PM
Quote from: YE on July 10, 2018, 03:52:09 PM
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on July 10, 2018, 03:46:31 PM
Emerson-

Democrats: 49% (+4)
Republicans: 42% (+2)

Democrats get an 18-point lead in the midwest, 52-34%

Unrelated to the generic ballot, but it shows that 41% of 18-34 year olds prefer a socialist system compared to 42% who prefer a capitalist system. Ocasio bump?

https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-national-july2018-PR.pdf

That's been the case for quite some time. Dating back to 2012 at least.

I don't really think so...

http://thefederalist.com/2017/11/01/study-nearly-half-millennials-prefer-socialism-capitalism/

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5044527/Survey-shows-millennials-prefer-socialism-capitalism.html

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/04/26/a-majority-of-millennials-now-reject-capitalism-poll-shows/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.f8aaabf14406

And here’s another study on Millennials & socialism/capitalism:

https://cms.marketplace.org/sites/default/files/GenForward.pdf
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