2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please

[Classic Conservative]

Mike Levin: 49%
Diane Harkey: 46%
https://mikelevin.org/democrat-mike-levin-has-initial-edge-in-49th-congressional-district-poll/

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Sad numbers for Levin.

[KingSweden]

UT-02: Salt Lake Tribune, June 11-18, 147 (lol) registered voters

Stewart (R) 48
Ghobani (D) 24
Others 14  (presumably UUP candidate)

Lol why even bother polling this district

[ON Progressive]

UT-02: Salt Lake Tribune, June 11-18, 147 (lol) registered voters

Stewart (R) 48
Ghobani (D) 24
Others 14  (presumably UUP candidate)

Lol why even bother polling this district

Why bother polling anything if you're only polling 147 people?

[GeorgiaModerate]

UT-02: Salt Lake Tribune, June 11-18, 147 (lol) registered voters

Stewart (R) 48
Ghobani (D) 24
Others 14  (presumably UUP candidate)

Lol why even bother polling this district

Why bother polling anything if you're only polling 147 people?

And it took a week to poll the 147!  They probably had one person working on it.

[Greatblueheron]

CA-49 - https://mikelevin.org/democrat-mike-levin-has-initial-edge-in-49th-congressional-district-poll/

Levin internal:

Levin (D) - 44
Harkey (R) - 41

A lead inside the margin of error in a district Clinton won by 8 points and many national forecasters have as "Lean D" - found in a democratic internal.

A poll showing dems picking up Issa's seat? Terrible news for Democrats./s

It’s not terrible, but it’s not exactly good when Issa’s seat is within the MOE on your own internal poll. Issa’s seat should be, in theory, among the easiest pickups in the country for Democrats.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Something to note is that the states with Senate Elections this year are overall slightly more Democratic than the nation overall when it comes to the sum of state vote totals.

[Gass3268]

New Cook Ratings:



I really don't get NY-25.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Did they provide an explanation for moving NY-25 to the GOP?

[Brittain33]

Is it just that there's no incumbent and they're catching up with that?

NY-25 is D+8 and that's inflated for Republicans by Trump. It's more Democratic than Ros-Lehtinen's district. But I guess it's not the South Bronx or downtown Seattle, so it won't be "Safe." 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Did they provide an explanation for moving NY-25 to the GOP?

Yes, see https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/house-ratings-changes-10-districts-move-mostly-democrats-direction:

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[OneJ]

Any idea on why Montana is moved?

[ON Progressive]

Any idea on why Montana is moved?

I imagine the Gravis poll that had him down explains at least some of it.

[LimoLiberal]

Yikes in CA-25, meh in MN-03, and pretty good in NJ-03.

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1016763181870411776

[Zaybay]

Yikes in CA-25, meh in MN-03, and pretty good in NJ-03.

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1016763181870411776

Eyyyy, Limo is Back.

Back at it with trying to contort everything into "Dems are in disarray".

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Yikes in CA-25, meh in MN-03, and pretty good in NJ-03.

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1016763181870411776

NJ 3 is good, the others are terrible.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Very surprising polls for NJ-03 & CA-25. I thought CA-25 would be an easy pickup, and I thought NJ-03 was a little harder than Atlas was thinking.

Don't care about the MN one cuz "generic dem" doesn't exist. Not sure why they didn't poll Craig when she's the only one in the dem primary....

[KingSweden]

Better than I anticipated in NJ-3, worse than I anticipated in CA-25.

[BudgieForce]

I'm genuinely not shocked at the soft CA numbers Democrats have been getting. They're is only so much support Democrats can ring out of California without Trump at the top of the ticket.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos, July 5-9, 1312 registered voters

D: 46 (+3)
R: 34 (-2)

The 538 average is now at D+8.9 (47.9-39.0), which is the largest gap since mid-March.

[Gass3268]

Democrats could pick up 4 seats in New Jersey.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Emerson-

Democrats: 49% (+4)
Republicans: 42% (+2)

Democrats get an 18-point lead in the midwest, 52-34%

Unrelated to the generic ballot, but it shows that 41% of 18-34 year olds prefer a socialist system compared to 42% who prefer a capitalist system. Ocasio bump?

https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-national-july2018-PR.pdf

[YE]

Emerson-

Democrats: 49% (+4)
Republicans: 42% (+2)

Democrats get an 18-point lead in the midwest, 52-34%

Unrelated to the generic ballot, but it shows that 41% of 18-34 year olds prefer a socialist system compared to 42% who prefer a capitalist system. Ocasio bump?

https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-national-july2018-PR.pdf

That's been the case for quite some time. Dating back to 2012 at least.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Emerson-

Democrats: 49% (+4)
Republicans: 42% (+2)

Democrats get an 18-point lead in the midwest, 52-34%

Unrelated to the generic ballot, but it shows that 41% of 18-34 year olds prefer a socialist system compared to 42% who prefer a capitalist system. Ocasio bump?

https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-national-july2018-PR.pdf

That's been the case for quite some time. Dating back to 2012 at least.

I don't really think so...

[Zaybay]

Emerson-

Democrats: 49% (+4)
Republicans: 42% (+2)

Democrats get an 18-point lead in the midwest, 52-34%

Unrelated to the generic ballot, but it shows that 41% of 18-34 year olds prefer a socialist system compared to 42% who prefer a capitalist system. Ocasio bump?

https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-national-july2018-PR.pdf

This is what I was talking about before, the undecideds are finally starting to move. And more are moving for the Ds.

But those Midwest Numbers
Those are delicious.


As to the Socialism/Capitalism question you have, most millenials were given the short end of the stick in 2008, and have generally been more supportive of such a system. There were numerous news articles around the election and before it on how "the youth are turning to communism" and such. It was never even though, and that could be explained by the Trump effect and the success of DSA/progressive candidates this cycle(and their ability to reach voters through the media, like OC)