2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please

[KingSweden]

To piggyback off GM - the Ipsos giveth, and the Ipsos taketh away

[BudgieForce]

In less than a week it'll be back to where it was.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Colorado only (not a national GCB poll): PPP, June 27-28, 608 registered voters

D: 45
R: 40

[Landslide Lyndon]

Colorado only (not a national GCB poll): PPP, June 27-28, 608 registered voters

D: 45
R: 40

Colorado to the right of Arizona.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Colorado only (not a national GCB poll): PPP, June 27-28, 608 registered voters

D: 45
R: 40

Colorado to the right of Arizona.

That's also true on the map!  Colorado is to the right of Arizona, and also...higher.

(I'll get my coat.)

[Progressive Pessimist]

Democrats are going to pick up almost half of the seats they need just in the Northeast.

Do you think a Jersey sweep for the Dems will be possible?

NJ-4 will be a really tough district to flip. They could potentially win every seat but that one though, which is a great performance and a massive backfiring of how those districts were drawn. Protecting the incumbents was ironically the number one priority.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Colorado only (not a national GCB poll): PPP, June 27-28, 608 registered voters

D: 45
R: 40

Enough to boot Coffman in November?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Colorado only (not a national GCB poll): PPP, June 27-28, 608 registered voters

D: 45
R: 40

Enough to boot Coffman in November?

Enough to make him sweat, at a minimum.

[Virginiá]

Enough to make him sweat, at a minimum.

If it was a 5 pt win, it would probably not be unreasonable to start talking about a 5 - 2 delegation, even if just barely. Coffman is absolutely gone with a 5 point dem win margin.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Enough to make him sweat, at a minimum.

If it was a 5 pt win, it would probably not be unreasonable to start talking about a 5 - 2 delegation, even if just barely. Coffman is absolutely gone with a 5 point dem win margin.

And with the eventual switch to LV coming soon.

We should also expect the majority of undecideds to break for the Democrats.

[IceSpear]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1012410105097347072

Winnable.

If Love is up 6 even with this partisan breakdown, it actually looks pretty dire for McAdams:

[BudgieForce]

How does Love have a 5 point lead with that breakdown? There must be a lot more Republicans than Democrats there.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

How does Love have a 5 point lead with that breakdown? There must be a lot more Republicans than Democrats there.

There are a lot more Republicans than Democrats in the District too. Mia Love is Safe.

[Holmes]

How does Love have a 5 point lead with that breakdown? There must be a lot more Republicans than Democrats there.

There are a lot more Republicans than Democrats in the District too. Mia Love is Safe.

Having Mitt Romney at the top of the ballot helps as well.

Didn't help in 2012.

[Arkansas Yankee]

The RCP link to 6/14-6/17 CNN poll showing a D+8 has at its end an updated projection of seats dated 6/26 that shows the following projections:

D solid 179
D likely 11
D lean 12
Toss up 21
R lean 24
R likely 28
R solid 160

Seems a little weak for Ds, if they are +8.  Maybe the strength is some of R leans will fold.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/06/20/politics/generic-ballot-june-poll/index.html

[Pollster]

An incumbent getting only a quarter of the independent vote is a massive red flag.

[Brittain33]

An incumbent getting only a quarter of the independent vote is a massive red flag.

In Utah, it may not matter.

[Gass3268]

Quinnipiac

Democrats 50%
Republicans 41%

Would you like to see Congress be a check on President Trump, or not?

Yes 71%
No 20%

More motivated to vote than usual, less motivated, or are you just as motivated as usual (More-Less-Same)?

Democrats 58-5-38
Republicans 41-0-58

Source

[Blackacre]

Would you like to see Congress be a check on President Trump, or not?

Yes 71%
No 20%

Wew! But of course muh we can't run on being a check to Trump because muh Trump base and muh Dems have to stand for something in a midterm

[KingSweden]

Dems hitting 50 is big

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quinnipiac

Democrats 50%
Republicans 41%

For comparison, their previous poll (June 14-17) was D 49, R 43.

[Gass3268]

Quinnipiac

Democrats 50%
Republicans 41%

For comparison, their previous poll (June 14-17) was D 49, R 43.

Should also note that that they switched the question from who do you want to see control the Congress, to who you will vote for.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quinnipiac

Democrats 50%
Republicans 41%

For comparison, their previous poll (June 14-17) was D 49, R 43.

Should also note that that they switched the question from who do you want to see control the Congress, to who you will vote for.

Oh, good catch.  I've always wondered how much difference (if any) that wording made.

[Gass3268]

Some of these splits are nuts:

Men R+8
Women D+25

Whites with College Degree D+13
Whites with no College Degree R+14

Whites D/R+0
Blacks D+67
Hispanics D+25

Independents D+14

18-34 D+26
35-49 D+5
50-64 D+4
65+ D+11

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Some of these splits are nuts:

Men R+8
Women D+25

Whites with College Degree D+13
Whites with no College Degree R+14

Whites D/R+0
Blacks D+67
Hispanics D+25

Independents D+14

18-34 D+26
35-49 D+5
50-64 D+4
65+ D+11

That is unexpected