CPRM, Pt 3: LA 11/6

[Strong Candidate]

Under the radar, but, according to the SOS site, in AZ-06 Heather Ross is actually losing her primary 41-40. If she does, this probably ends Democrat's hopes of winning this seat.

[Zaybay]

Well, Gillum was a good surprise! It's f**king frustrating to see Shalala win so narrowly, but win some lose some I guess.

Isn't it kind of concerning that Republicans won more primary votes though? I know primary turnout isn't representative, but Democrats had a more contested race for Governor so if anything I'd expect them to be overrepresented. Am I missing something.

Arizona seems like a snoozefest.

FL always has a primary turnout advantage, and, in fact, we narrowed it, fro 56-44, to 53-47.

[Gass3268]

Well, Gillum was a good surprise! It's f**king frustrating to see Shalala win so narrowly, but win some lose some I guess.

Isn't it kind of concerning that Republicans won more primary votes though? I know primary turnout isn't representative, but Democrats had a more contested race for Governor so if anything I'd expect them to be overrepresented. Am I missing something.

Arizona seems like a snoozefest.

FL always has a primary turnout advantage, and, in fact, we narrowed it, fro 56-44, to 53-47.

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1034759799920107520

[Nyvin]

Pretty sure a large percentage of the unaffiliated voters are Puerto Ricans, who can't vote in the primaries but lean heavily dem in the General. 

[Brittain33]

Pretty sure a large percentage of the unaffiliated voters are Puerto Ricans, who can't vote in the primaries but lean heavily dem in the General. 

....although news stories are reporting that Scott has worked this community since Hurricane Maria while Nelson hasn't done as much.

[Skye]

Does anyone know why is it Wednesday and a big chunk of AZ is still missing?

[Zaybay]

Pretty sure a large percentage of the unaffiliated voters are Puerto Ricans, who can't vote in the primaries but lean heavily dem in the General. 

....although news stories are reporting that Scott has worked this community since Hurricane Maria while Nelson hasn't done as much.

Ok? I mean, it probably will make an insignificant difference, but I guess he can tighten the margin by 2 points with that group.

[Gass3268]

Does anyone know why is it Wednesday and a big chunk of AZ is still missing?

Not sure, but it sounds like there are almost a quarter of a million votes left to count.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

This race is over:

District 2
Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Lea Marquez Peterson
20,153   33.6%   
Brandon Martin
17,471   29.1   
Casey Welch
12,827   21.4   
Daniel Morales
9,552   15.9   
60,003 votes, 100% reporting (195 of 195 precincts)

Still uncalled: CD 1 R, CD 4 D, CD 6 D

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, Gillum was a good surprise! It's f**king frustrating to see Shalala win so narrowly, but win some lose some I guess.

Isn't it kind of concerning that Republicans won more primary votes though? I know primary turnout isn't representative, but Democrats had a more contested race for Governor so if anything I'd expect them to be overrepresented. Am I missing something.

Arizona seems like a snoozefest.

FL always has a primary turnout advantage, and, in fact, we narrowed it, fro 56-44, to 53-47.

What was it in a more Dem-friendly year, like say 2012?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

It was like 57-43% Rep in 2016, so we were able to chip it down to 52-48%.

[Zaybay]

Well, Gillum was a good surprise! It's f**king frustrating to see Shalala win so narrowly, but win some lose some I guess.

Isn't it kind of concerning that Republicans won more primary votes though? I know primary turnout isn't representative, but Democrats had a more contested race for Governor so if anything I'd expect them to be overrepresented. Am I missing something.

Arizona seems like a snoozefest.

FL always has a primary turnout advantage, and, in fact, we narrowed it, fro 56-44, to 53-47.

What was it in a more Dem-friendly year, like say 2012?

well, I wouldnt use 2012 as a benchmark, due to the noncompetitive primary from top to down ballot for the Ds and the semi-competitive race on the R side, but here it is. These are for the senate race, as that had D primary numbers.

D-869,619
R-1,120,643

57/43
The R presidential had way more voters, but there was no D primary.
2016 showed a similar result, 57/43.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I see.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Pretty sure a large percentage of the unaffiliated voters are Puerto Ricans, who can't vote in the primaries but lean heavily dem in the General. 

....although news stories are reporting that Scott has worked this community since Hurricane Maria while Nelson hasn't done as much.

Ok? I mean, it probably will make an insignificant difference, but I guess he can tighten the margin by 2 points with that group.

2 points in such a tight race like this could make all the difference.

[Zaybay]

Pretty sure a large percentage of the unaffiliated voters are Puerto Ricans, who can't vote in the primaries but lean heavily dem in the General. 

....although news stories are reporting that Scott has worked this community since Hurricane Maria while Nelson hasn't done as much.

Ok? I mean, it probably will make an insignificant difference, but I guess he can tighten the margin by 2 points with that group.

2 points in such a tight race like this could make all the difference.

2 points among a group that numbers 300,000 is a swing of 6000 voters. Its not going to be that close.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Pretty sure a large percentage of the unaffiliated voters are Puerto Ricans, who can't vote in the primaries but lean heavily dem in the General. 

....although news stories are reporting that Scott has worked this community since Hurricane Maria while Nelson hasn't done as much.

Ok? I mean, it probably will make an insignificant difference, but I guess he can tighten the margin by 2 points with that group.

2 points in such a tight race like this could make all the difference.

2 points among a group that numbers 300,000 is a swing of 6000 voters. Its not going to be that close.

I think this might be the closest race for the senate in 2018. I could see Nelson barely brushing through by a few thousand votes.

[Zaybay]

Pretty sure a large percentage of the unaffiliated voters are Puerto Ricans, who can't vote in the primaries but lean heavily dem in the General. 

....although news stories are reporting that Scott has worked this community since Hurricane Maria while Nelson hasn't done as much.

Ok? I mean, it probably will make an insignificant difference, but I guess he can tighten the margin by 2 points with that group.

2 points in such a tight race like this could make all the difference.

2 points among a group that numbers 300,000 is a swing of 6000 voters. Its not going to be that close.

I think this might be the closest race for the senate in 2018. I could see Nelson barely brushing through by a few thousand votes.

then you have never seen an FL race. There is no reason for it to be that close.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Pretty sure a large percentage of the unaffiliated voters are Puerto Ricans, who can't vote in the primaries but lean heavily dem in the General. 

....although news stories are reporting that Scott has worked this community since Hurricane Maria while Nelson hasn't done as much.

Ok? I mean, it probably will make an insignificant difference, but I guess he can tighten the margin by 2 points with that group.

2 points in such a tight race like this could make all the difference.

2 points among a group that numbers 300,000 is a swing of 6000 voters. Its not going to be that close.

I think this might be the closest race for the senate in 2018. I could see Nelson barely brushing through by a few thousand votes.

then you have never seen an FL race. There is no reason for it to be that close.

Ok then, what's your guess?

[Zaybay]

Pretty sure a large percentage of the unaffiliated voters are Puerto Ricans, who can't vote in the primaries but lean heavily dem in the General. 

....although news stories are reporting that Scott has worked this community since Hurricane Maria while Nelson hasn't done as much.

Ok? I mean, it probably will make an insignificant difference, but I guess he can tighten the margin by 2 points with that group.

2 points in such a tight race like this could make all the difference.

2 points among a group that numbers 300,000 is a swing of 6000 voters. Its not going to be that close.

I think this might be the closest race for the senate in 2018. I could see Nelson barely brushing through by a few thousand votes.

then you have never seen an FL race. There is no reason for it to be that close.

Ok then, what's your guess?

probably a 2-3 point margin in favour of Nelson, which equates to, around, 300,000-400,000 vote difference.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

More calls:

District 1
Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Wendy Rogers
23,693   43.7%   
Steve Smith
20,495   37.8   
Tiffany Shedd
10,055   18.5   
54,243 votes, 100% reporting (279 of 279 precincts)

U.S. House District 4

Democratic Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
David Brill
16,201   53.1%   
Delina DiSanto
14,307   46.9   
30,508 votes, 98% reporting (159 of 162 precincts)

CD 6 D still too close to call.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Updating the Senate Primary Turnout Map: Republicans win Arizona 56%-44%. Dems should be able to win the turnout battle in the 4 states that remain (MA, DE, RI, NY), so we now know what the map's forecast is: Republicans will have a net gain of 5 seats, putting their senate majority at 56-44. Congrats Krazen if this reflects reality.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Updating the Senate Primary Turnout Map: Republicans win Arizona 56%-44%. Dems should be able to win the turnout battle in the 4 states that remain (MA, DE, RI, NY), so we now know what the map's forecast is: Republicans will have a net gain of 5 seats, putting their senate majority at 56-44. Congrats Krazen if this reflects reality.

[Nyvin]

Updating the Senate Primary Turnout Map: Republicans win Arizona 56%-44%. Dems should be able to win the turnout battle in the 4 states that remain (MA, DE, RI, NY), so we now know what the map's forecast is: Republicans will have a net gain of 5 seats, putting their senate majority at 56-44. Congrats Krazen if this reflects reality.

Not happening.

[Tender Branson]

Updating the Senate Primary Turnout Map: Republicans win Arizona 56%-44%. Dems should be able to win the turnout battle in the 4 states that remain (MA, DE, RI, NY), so we now know what the map's forecast is: Republicans will have a net gain of 5 seats, putting their senate majority at 56-44. Congrats Krazen if this reflects reality.

O'Connor, Tripinnenni and Lamb all got outvoted in the primary by a 30-70 margin, but then either came very close in the general election or won ...

Primary numbers don't mean a lot.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Updating the Senate Primary Turnout Map: Republicans win Arizona 56%-44%. Dems should be able to win the turnout battle in the 4 states that remain (MA, DE, RI, NY), so we now know what the map's forecast is: Republicans will have a net gain of 5 seats, putting their senate majority at 56-44. Congrats Krazen if this reflects reality.

O'Connor, Tripinnenni and Lamb all got outvoted in the primary by a 30-70 margin, but then either came very close in the general election or won ...

Primary numbers don't mean a lot.

Lamb was nominated by convention.