CPRM, Pt 3: LA 11/6

[Adam Griffin]

Not sure if it usually happens in primaries (doesn't in generals), but Democrats won the primary turnout battle in Navajo County (50.2-49.8).

[OneJ]

Updating the Senate Primary Turnout Map: Republicans win Arizona 56%-44%. Dems should be able to win the turnout battle in the 4 states that remain (MA, DE, RI, NY), so we now know what the map's forecast is: Republicans will have a net gain of 5 seats, putting their senate majority at 56-44. Congrats Krazen if this reflects reality.

I hope you’re joking because this is terrible analysis, even for you.

[Webnicz]

Not sure if it usually happens in primaries (doesn't in generals), but Democrats won the primary turnout battle in Navajo County (50.2-49.8).

This is significant for Navajo, its a sign that the Native American community is engaged this cycle. Navajo is always slightly more republican

[Mr. Smith]

Not sure if it usually happens in primaries (doesn't in generals), but Democrats won the primary turnout battle in Navajo County (50.2-49.8).

This is significant for Navajo, its a sign that the Native American community is engaged this cycle. Navajo is always slightly more republican

I always figured that was because of the Special Snowflakes* on one side, and depraved splinter group from said Snowflakes* on the other.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Updating the Senate Primary Turnout Map: Republicans win Arizona 56%-44%. Dems should be able to win the turnout battle in the 4 states that remain (MA, DE, RI, NY), so we now know what the map's forecast is: Republicans will have a net gain of 5 seats, putting their senate majority at 56-44. Congrats Krazen if this reflects reality.

I hope you’re joking because this is terrible analysis, even for you.

This does not reflect my personal prediction of what will happen, only the reality of what this particular method of forecasting the midterms tells us.

[Adam Griffin]

I'm sure there's some loose correlation between primary turnout and GE performance, but it's not very strong. Now, if you deduct the obviously irrelevant performances from states with historical leans that contradict current behavior, you can perhaps get something fairly relevant. Mainly, primaries merely intensify the prevailing political majority's numbers in each state more than anything - but generally reflect the state's sentiment. Assuming multiple Senators who have won in hostile climates before - where the same primary imbalance was present - will now lose is foolish.

For example, the 2016 presidential primary wasn't that bad of a predictor of EC margins when you leave out the Dixiecrat states (WV/KY/LA) and when you assume for the gray states*, and was practically spot-on for the PV margins:

Primary EC*: 303-235
General EC: 306-232

Primary PV (Two Way): DEM 50.9%, GOP 49.1%
General PV (Two Way): DEM 51.1%, GOP 48.9%

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Finishing up AZ:

U.S. Representative in Congress - District No. 6 (DEM)
Summary By County Vote Type
2 Year Term  |  Elect 1
ChoiceVotes
Percent
 

Malik, Anita
15,721

40.59%


Ross, Heather
15,290

39.47%


McFadden, Garrick
7,723

19.94%

[136or142]

Finishing up AZ:

U.S. Representative in Congress - District No. 6 (DEM)
Summary By County Vote Type
2 Year Term  |  Elect 1
ChoiceVotes
Percent
 

Malik, Anita
15,721

40.59%


Ross, Heather
15,290

39.47%


McFadden, Garrick
7,723

19.94%

Nobody has commented on this, at least as far as I can see.  Anita Malik is the much weaker general election candidate. 

[wesmoorenerd]

Finishing up AZ:

U.S. Representative in Congress - District No. 6 (DEM)
Summary By County Vote Type
2 Year Term  |  Elect 1
ChoiceVotes
Percent
 

Malik, Anita
15,721

40.59%


Ross, Heather
15,290

39.47%


McFadden, Garrick
7,723

19.94%

Nobody has commented on this, at least as far as I can see.  Anita Malik is the much weaker general election candidate. 

Yeah, Ross was the presumptive nominee and raised significantly more money. I don't really know enough about Malik to characterize her as "weak", but she's going to need to catch up in fundraising and get her name out there if she wants to stand a chance in the GE. I still think this district stands a chance of flipping considering Schweikert has some personal issues, but Malik is facing an even more uphill battle than Ross would have.

[RBH]

Not sure if it usually happens in primaries (doesn't in generals), but Democrats won the primary turnout battle in Navajo County (50.2-49.8).

This is significant for Navajo, its a sign that the Native American community is engaged this cycle. Navajo is always slightly more republican

Do you think the Navajo Nation primaries moved turnout much from where it would have been without those primaries?

In 2014/18, the primaries for the Navajo Nation occurred on the same day as the Arizona primary, so we likely have a good comp from that election in regards to turnout. Back in 2006/10, the Navajo and Arizona primaries were on different dates.

For those counties, I guess it'd require crunching numbers for the precincts on the Navajo res, precincts on the Hopi res, and precincts off of any reservation in Apache and Navajo counties.

But to be fair.. there'll be elections for Navajo Pres on 11/6/18, unless there's a repeat of the 2014 process

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Polls close at 8 ET tonight. Results here: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/09/04/us/elections/results-massachusetts-primary-elections.html

[Strudelcutie4427]

Let’s go Steve and Charlie!!!!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Ayanna!! She got the Boston Globe's endorsement like two weeks ago.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Let’s go Steve and Charlie!!!!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Ayanna!! She got the Boston Globe's endorsement like two weeks ago.

She probably gonna lose, but I don’t care about this race and won’t really mind if Capuano gets thrown out, both of them are like the same thing.

[Zaybay]

This will be rather exciting on the D side. Its very possible the state gets a new SoS, in Zakim.

The 3rd will be rather interesting, even though all of them are running on the same platform, there are some niches(Koh sides with Marty Walsh, L'Italien is the most Left, etc.).

The 7th will be close, though I personally think Capuano pulls it out. The 8th could be an upset, but I dont see it happening.

And it will be interesting to see Baker's margin against his Conservative opponent.

The D governor race primary seems to lean towards Jay, but Bob could easily stage an upset, though it doesnt really matter if Baker wins, and he stays clean until election day.

[Beet]

I still hope Brianna wins thanks to old Gamergate loyalties.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Let's get this show on the road!!

[Zaybay]

Dont disappoint MA!

[Thank you for being a friend...]

http://www.wbur.org/

The local NPR site has a map by town (there are a lot of towns, but not too many so you can have an easy map).

I walked to my polling station which took a while and there was a Greg Henning guy out front.  That's for DA in Boston.  I always take the brochure but by that time I had made up my mind.

I voted for Josh Zakim, Brianna Wu, and Bob Massie.

[Zaybay]

http://www.wbur.org/

The local NPR site has a map by town (there are a lot of towns, but not too many so you can have an easy map).

I walked to my polling station which took a while and there was a Greg Henning guy out front.  That's for DA in Boston.  I always take the brochure but by that time I had made up my mind.

I voted for Josh Zakim, Brianna Wu, and Bob Massie.

excellent ticket, I voted for Josh Zakim as well, and Bob as well, but I dont have a competitive house primary.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

WOAH!!!! It's VERY VERY early, but Neal's challenger is putting up a good showing.

[Zaybay]

First results

Baker 63%/ Lively 37%

Jay leading 66%/Bob 34%

Gavin leading Zakim 67%/33%

and, surprisingly

Neal 54%/46% against an unknown primary challenger

[Politician]

LOL at Scott Lively. I think he'll get 30% of the R vote though.

[Zaybay]

Only 400 votes in guys, dont draw conclusions. MA doesnt early vote.