CPRM, Pt 3: LA 11/6

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/BrentWelder/status/1025908868864528386

Looks like this race is going to be thrown away by dumb primary voters.

A guy from St. Louis, Missouri who only came into the district a few months before his campaign has zero chance in hell of winning a district in Kansas.

sigh, no, he is favored to win because this district is the most D friendly district, trended D hard in both 2012 and 2016, is being impacted by a large blue wave, has the lowest approvals for Trump in the state of KS, and has a rather average, not noticeable incumbent, not to mention the likely close race for governor.
I really doubt that the issue will really play well, as carpetbaggers do have a pretty good shot at winning elections. Usually, it needs something else, like the original state being from the coast, or the guy previously working for big money there, but he just lived in the neighboring state, not really anything there.

He lived on the other side of the state. Also, out of state carpetbaggers can only win if other fundamentals aren’t only in their favour, but hugely so.

Alex Mooney still does like 20 points worse than the top of the ticket as an incumbent in deep red WV-02, and he barely won in 2014. McClintock nearly lost in 2008 in a McCain +10 seat with zero Democratic ancestry.

If Welder is such a great candidate, then why are Republican donors meddling to try to get him as their opponent?

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/BrentWelder/status/1025908868864528386

Looks like this race is going to be thrown away by dumb primary voters.

A guy from St. Louis, Missouri who only came into the district a few months before his campaign has zero chance in hell of winning a district in Kansas.

sigh, no, he is favored to win because this district is the most D friendly district, trended D hard in both 2012 and 2016, is being impacted by a large blue wave, has the lowest approvals for Trump in the state of KS, and has a rather average, not noticeable incumbent, not to mention the likely close race for governor.
I really doubt that the issue will really play well, as carpetbaggers do have a pretty good shot at winning elections. Usually, it needs something else, like the original state being from the coast, or the guy previously working for big money there, but he just lived in the neighboring state, not really anything there.

He lived on the other side of the state. Also, out of state carpetbaggers can only win if other fundamentals aren’t only in their favour, but hugely so.

Alex Mooney still does like 20 points worse than the top of the ticket as an incumbent in deep red WV-02, and he barely won in 2014. McClintock nearly lost in 2008 in a McCain +10 seat with zero Democratic ancestry.

If Welder is such a great candidate, then why are Republican donors meddling to try to get him as their opponent?

Quite simple, its because hes a socialist, and "pundit knowledge" says that socialists cant win in Red states.

Carpetbagging itself is not a large issue for voters. Many of our current reps and dem candidates are carpetbaggers, and no one, on this site, or on the field, seems to have a problem with it. To illustrate this, ill use Morrisey. He carpetbagged from NJ to be the AG for WV, and won, unseating a long time Dem incumbent, even while Manchin cruised. In this senate race, the problem WV voters have with him is not that hes from NJ, its that he worked and took money from Big Pharma. Manchin has paired the two up to make Morrisey look like a Coastal Elite who doesnt care about WV. Its not the carpetbagging issue that gets voters, its the healthcare one. Using the carpetbagging just amplifies it, not creates it.

And to disprove your examples. The seat of WV-02 is the most partisan D seat in WV. It has the highest ceiling of all three districts. Alex had trouble not because of CBing, but because the seat had many partisan Ds in it. Trump preformed the worst in this seat as well. WV-03, while having the D base, is not partisan, allowing Ojeda and Trump to win, by large margins if we are talking about Trump.

And with the McClintock one, his opponent, Charlie Brown(yes, that is his name), ran in 2006 and had great name rec. He lost 45-55. In that case, it would make sense that without an incumbent and a larger D wave election, Charlie would overpreform. It was not McClintock's weaknesses, but Brown's strengths.

So, to sum up. They want Welder cause hes socialist, carpetbagger is not effective unless using it to pair with a larger, more important issue, and not every election is as it seems.

[CookieDamage]

https://twitter.com/BrentWelder/status/1025908868864528386

Looks like this race is going to be thrown away by dumb primary voters.

A guy from St. Louis, Missouri who only came into the district a few months before his campaign has zero chance in hell of winning a district in Kansas.

sigh, no, he is favored to win because this district is the most D friendly district, trended D hard in both 2012 and 2016, is being impacted by a large blue wave, has the lowest approvals for Trump in the state of KS, and has a rather average, not noticeable incumbent, not to mention the likely close race for governor.
I really doubt that the issue will really play well, as carpetbaggers do have a pretty good shot at winning elections. Usually, it needs something else, like the original state being from the coast, or the guy previously working for big money there, but he just lived in the neighboring state, not really anything there.

He lived on the other side of the state. Also, out of state carpetbaggers can only win if other fundamentals aren’t only in their favour, but hugely so.

Alex Mooney still does like 20 points worse than the top of the ticket as an incumbent in deep red WV-02, and he barely won in 2014. McClintock nearly lost in 2008 in a McCain +10 seat with zero Democratic ancestry.

If Welder is such a great candidate, then why are Republican donors meddling to try to get him as their opponent?

Quite simple, its because hes a socialist, and "pundit knowledge" says that socialists cant win in Red states.

Carpetbagging itself is not a large issue for voters. Many of our current reps and dem candidates are carpetbaggers, and no one, on this site, or on the field, seems to have a problem with it. To illustrate this, ill use Morrisey. He carpetbagged from NJ to be the AG for WV, and won, unseating a long time Dem incumbent, even while Manchin cruised. In this senate race, the problem WV voters have with him is not that hes from NJ, its that he worked and took money from Big Pharma. Manchin has paired the two up to make Morrisey look like a Coastal Elite who doesnt care about WV. Its not the carpetbagging issue that gets voters, its the healthcare one. Using the carpetbagging just amplifies it, not creates it.

And to disprove your examples. The seat of WV-02 is the most partisan D seat in WV. It has the highest ceiling of all three districts. Alex had trouble not because of CBing, but because the seat had many partisan Ds in it. Trump preformed the worst in this seat as well. WV-03, while having the D base, is not partisan, allowing Ojeda and Trump to win, by large margins if we are talking about Trump.

And with the McClintock one, his opponent, Charlie Brown(yes, that is his name), ran in 2006 and had great name rec. He lost 45-55. In that case, it would make sense that without an incumbent and a larger D wave election, Charlie would overpreform. It was not McClintock's weaknesses, but Brown's strengths.

So, to sum up. They want Welder cause hes socialist, carpetbagger is not effective unless using it to pair with a larger, more important issue, and not every election is as it seems.

Y'all will take any progressive and social Democrat and proclaim him a socialist hero if he's endorsed by Bernie. Your own punditry is starting to look seriously biased.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/BrentWelder/status/1025908868864528386

Looks like this race is going to be thrown away by dumb primary voters.

A guy from St. Louis, Missouri who only came into the district a few months before his campaign has zero chance in hell of winning a district in Kansas.

sigh, no, he is favored to win because this district is the most D friendly district, trended D hard in both 2012 and 2016, is being impacted by a large blue wave, has the lowest approvals for Trump in the state of KS, and has a rather average, not noticeable incumbent, not to mention the likely close race for governor.
I really doubt that the issue will really play well, as carpetbaggers do have a pretty good shot at winning elections. Usually, it needs something else, like the original state being from the coast, or the guy previously working for big money there, but he just lived in the neighboring state, not really anything there.

He lived on the other side of the state. Also, out of state carpetbaggers can only win if other fundamentals aren’t only in their favour, but hugely so.

Alex Mooney still does like 20 points worse than the top of the ticket as an incumbent in deep red WV-02, and he barely won in 2014. McClintock nearly lost in 2008 in a McCain +10 seat with zero Democratic ancestry.

If Welder is such a great candidate, then why are Republican donors meddling to try to get him as their opponent?

Quite simple, its because hes a socialist, and "pundit knowledge" says that socialists cant win in Red states.

Carpetbagging itself is not a large issue for voters. Many of our current reps and dem candidates are carpetbaggers, and no one, on this site, or on the field, seems to have a problem with it. To illustrate this, ill use Morrisey. He carpetbagged from NJ to be the AG for WV, and won, unseating a long time Dem incumbent, even while Manchin cruised. In this senate race, the problem WV voters have with him is not that hes from NJ, its that he worked and took money from Big Pharma. Manchin has paired the two up to make Morrisey look like a Coastal Elite who doesnt care about WV. Its not the carpetbagging issue that gets voters, its the healthcare one. Using the carpetbagging just amplifies it, not creates it.

And to disprove your examples. The seat of WV-02 is the most partisan D seat in WV. It has the highest ceiling of all three districts. Alex had trouble not because of CBing, but because the seat had many partisan Ds in it. Trump preformed the worst in this seat as well. WV-03, while having the D base, is not partisan, allowing Ojeda and Trump to win, by large margins if we are talking about Trump.

And with the McClintock one, his opponent, Charlie Brown(yes, that is his name), ran in 2006 and had great name rec. He lost 45-55. In that case, it would make sense that without an incumbent and a larger D wave election, Charlie would overpreform. It was not McClintock's weaknesses, but Brown's strengths.

So, to sum up. They want Welder cause hes socialist, carpetbagger is not effective unless using it to pair with a larger, more important issue, and not every election is as it seems.

Y'all will take any progressive and social Democrat and proclaim him a socialist hero if he's endorsed by Bernie. Your own punditry is starting to look seriously biased.

Well, thats what he calls himself. Self-described Socialist. Of course hes a social democrat, but thats what he calls himself, and thats what will be used against him.

[VPH]

Welder can't win. I've seen multiple local elected officials in the Third who agree.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

List of Contested Races:

MO - SEN D and R and G, CD 1 D and R, CD 2 D and R, CD 3 R, CD 4 D and R and L, CD 5 R and L, CD 6 D, CD 7 D and R, Proposition A, Auditor R

MI - SEN R, GOV D and R and L, CD 3 D, CD 4 D, CD 6 D, CD 7 D, CD 8 D and R, CD 9 D, CD 10 D, CD 11 D and R, CD 13 D, CD 13 Special D

KS - GOV D and R, CD 1 R, CD 2 R, CD 3 D and R, CD 4 D and R, Sec. State R

WA - Senate, CD 1, CD 2, CD 3, CD 5, CD 6, CD 8, CD 9, CD 10, Court of Appeals Div. 1 Dist. 3 Pos. 1

[Ebsy]

Tracking precinct turnout reports on twitter, it seems as if turnout is extremely high across Michigan for the primary. Something to keep an eye on tonight.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Tracking precinct turnout reports on twitter, it seems as if turnout is extremely high across Michigan for the primary. Something to keep an eye on tonight.

I really, really hope El-Sayed has a chance. He's been possibly the most inspiring candidate of this entire cycle.

[Gass3268]

Tracking precinct turnout reports on twitter, it seems as if turnout is extremely high across Michigan for the primary. Something to keep an eye on tonight.

I really, really hope El-Sayed has a chance. He's been possibly the most inspiring candidate of this entire cycle.

As long as it's not Thanedar I'll be happy.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Tracking precinct turnout reports on twitter, it seems as if turnout is extremely high across Michigan for the primary. Something to keep an eye on tonight.

I really, really hope El-Sayed has a chance. He's been possibly the most inspiring candidate of this entire cycle.

As long as it's not Thanedar I'll be happy.

I mean yeah, Thanedar is a f***king cancer, but Whitmer is meh and exactly the wrong kind of candidate to reconquer the Midwest for Democrats.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Tracking precinct turnout reports on twitter, it seems as if turnout is extremely high across Michigan for the primary. Something to keep an eye on tonight.

I really, really hope El-Sayed has a chance. He's been possibly the most inspiring candidate of this entire cycle.

As long as it's not Thanedar I'll be happy.

I mean yeah, Thanedar is a f***king cancer, but Whitmer is meh and exactly the wrong kind of candidate to reconquer the Midwest for Democrats.

A guy named "Abdul El-Sayed" isn't the right candidate, even if he has a fantastic platform.

And Whitmer is not "OMG HILLARY CLONE" like some "Bernie Bros" think. She has a lot of pro-labor credentials. Plus she's led in every poll.

[Antonio the Sixth]

A guy named "Abdul El-Sayed" isn't the right candidate, even if he has a fantastic platform.

A guy with the middle name Hussein won Michigan by 16 points. I thought you were smarter than to fall for these ridiculous clichés.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

A guy named "Abdul El-Sayed" isn't the right candidate, even if he has a fantastic platform.

A guy with the middle name Hussein won Michigan by 16 points. I thought you were smarter than to fall for these ridiculous clichés.

Obama isn't a Muslim.

And no the median voter didn't believe he was one either, even if a significant number of morons did.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Tracking precinct turnout reports on twitter, it seems as if turnout is extremely high across Michigan for the primary. Something to keep an eye on tonight.

I really, really hope El-Sayed has a chance. He's been possibly the most inspiring candidate of this entire cycle.

As long as it's not Thanedar I'll be happy.

I mean yeah, Thanedar is a f***king cancer, but Whitmer is meh and exactly the wrong kind of candidate to reconquer the Midwest for Democrats.

A guy named "Abdul El-Sayed" isn't the right candidate, even if he has a fantastic platform.

And Whitmer is not "OMG HILLARY CLONE" like some "Bernie Bros" think. She has a lot of pro-labor credentials. Plus she's led in every poll.

I am a muslim and I agree with this.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I hope Abdul El-Sayed wins the primary. I like his platform, though I wouldn't be upset if Whitmer won. Everyone claiming he will lose in the fall sounds ignorant. People of color are tired of being told to wait. If Democrats and D-leaning Independents voters don't embrace him because of his religion that's their fault and they will suffer for it.

[Zaybay]

I hope Abdul El-Sayed wins the primary. I like his platform, though I wouldn't be upset if Whitmer won. Everyone claiming he will lose in the fall sounds ignorant. People of color are tired of being told to wait. If Democrats and D-leaning Independents voters don't embrace him because of his religion that's their fault and they will suffer for it.

[libertpaulian]

I hope Abdul El-Sayed wins the primary. I like his platform, though I wouldn't be upset if Whitmer won. Everyone claiming he will lose in the fall sounds ignorant. People of color are tired of being told to wait. If Democrats and D-leaning Independents voters don't embrace him because of his religion that's their fault and they will suffer for it.

El-Sayed doesn't exactly inspire the type of momentum and energy that someone like say, your gal, does.

[Chief Justice Keef]

A guy named "Abdul El-Sayed" isn't the right candidate, even if he has a fantastic platform.

A guy with the middle name Hussein won Michigan by 16 points. I thought you were smarter than to fall for these ridiculous clichés.

Obama isn't a Muslim.

And no the median voter didn't believe he was one either, even if a significant number of morons did.

Would it have made a difference to the "median voter" if he was one? Anyone voting based on a candidate's religious status is probably a solid Republican.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Didn't El Sayed have residency issues? That's the biggest problem with him, not his name.

[Zaybay]

Didn't El Sayed have residency issues? That's the biggest problem with him, not his name.

dismissed by the electoral board, and the MISC has implied that they believe hes eligible to run.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

The kind of voter who won’t vote for someone named Abdul El-Sayed is a strong Republican.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Polls closed in Missouri!

[Gass3268]

Will start getting results in Kansas, Michigan, and Missouri soon.

[Zaybay]

Too many elections! Cant focus!

[Zaybay]

first KS votes! Kelly in the lead