CPRM, Pt 3: LA 11/6

[Adam Griffin]

ITT Tender shows his lack of understanding of Southern politics and primaries.

In the vast majority of TN - both geographically and population-wise - the GOP rules. Everywhere else, Dems already dominate; virtually no competitive areas. That's important to understand in the context of primaries, as many voters from the opposing party vote in the dominant party's primary for influence. However, throughout most of the South, it's a one-way affair; i.e. GOP voters in Democratic areas vote in the GOP primary, and DEM voters in GOP areas also vote in the GOP primary. That's because the GOP top-ticket contests are always either important or contested, whereas the DEM contests aren't. That's why GOP ballots are 43% in Shelby County, 70% in Knox County, 74% in Williamson County and 5-15 points more GOP than in general elections everywhere else.

With nothing remotely competitive at the top of the ballot in the Democratic primary, of course practically every GOP voter + like one-third of Dems are going to pull a GOP ballot. It's very important to also point out that a huge element of this trend has nothing to do with whether DEM/GOP primaries have contested top-ticket races: much of it is fueled by local offices. People want to influence who is going to represent them, and in the vast majority of TN, that means voting in the GOP primary to pick the de-facto winner. This happens almost everywhere in the South, and it's nothing new.

A little-known secret is that 20-25% of Southern GOP primary voters in open states are actually Democrats, lol.

[Adam Griffin]

^^^ It also wouldn't surprise me if the state party and its associated orgs purposefully wanted or indirectly tried to suppress Democratic turnout in the primary. TN is an especially egregious example of how low-information Democratic voters often wander into the booth and pick literally the first name on the ballot (Mark Clayton, Charlie Brown, Gordon Ball, etc) - though at least in the top-ticket races in this election, it would have had no impact.

[Doimper]

ITT Tender shows his lack of understanding

Evergreen post

[Cuca_Beludo]

Anyway yeah, Bredesen and Dean will probably lose, but most people already knew that. The key is that Dems are going to massively improve here (and mostly everywhere.)

THANK you!

Nice to see someone here who isn't a complete idiot at interpreting statistics.

Badger, I literally just posted about polling.

Again, Bredensen is ahead of Blackburn right now. (If polling isn't wrong).

Emerson actually shows Dean up by 4/2 against Black/Boyd.

Obviously Dem's are going to improve a lot. Look at these numbers, almost unreal.

Now, looking at these numbers I was expecting something big to happen in this primary. Yes, D turnout is up but I didn't expect R turn out to grow by 15%. Republicans still have their huge base and that's good news in a state like Tennessee. Again, maybe not exactly good compared to the previous years but VERY GOOD when you look at these terrible polls coming out. These numbers are enough for a comfortable-ish win in November because TN is very red.

NOW. Will republicans turn out again or will many of them change to Bredensen? How will independents vote? We don't know. That's the question.

By the way, we are here to discuss. You came to this thread and all you did was attack people. "You can't do math", "You're idiot".

I'm not sensitive but I would rather have a discussion. I think mods agree with me.

[Cuca_Beludo]

ITT Tender shows his lack of understanding of Southern politics and primaries.

In the vast majority of TN - both geographically and population-wise - the GOP rules. Everywhere else, Dems already dominate; virtually no competitive areas. That's important to understand in the context of primaries, as many voters from the opposing party vote in the dominant party's primary for influence. However, throughout most of the South, it's a one-way affair; i.e. GOP voters in Democratic areas vote in the GOP primary, and DEM voters in GOP areas also vote in the GOP primary. That's because the GOP top-ticket contests are always either important or contested, whereas the DEM contests aren't. That's why GOP ballots are 43% in Shelby County, 70% in Knox County, 74% in Williamson County and 5-15 points more GOP than in general elections everywhere else.

With nothing remotely competitive at the top of the ballot in the Democratic primary, of course practically every GOP voter + like one-third of Dems are going to pull a GOP ballot. It's very important to also point out that a huge element of this trend has nothing to do with whether DEM/GOP primaries have contested top-ticket races: much of it is fueled by local offices. People want to influence who is going to represent them, and in the vast majority of TN, that means voting in the GOP primary to pick the de-facto winner. This happens almost everywhere in the South, and it's nothing new.

A little-known secret is that 20-25% of Southern GOP primary voters in open states are actually Democrats, lol.

That's really interesting. I knew about some democrats voting GOP but had no idea it was this complex. So, in other words it's hard to say what this primary really means and we should focus more on the candidates, right?

[Landslide Lyndon]

I never cared for Diane Black either. She seems some rich person who got into politics out of lack of anything better to do.

That, and the fact she seems to be embarrassed to actually be a woman.

Isn't she the one that always insisted on being called "Congressman"? Guess she won't have to worry about that anymore.

She and Blackburn both did that.  I voted for Bill Lee, but I have met Diane Black on multiple occasions, and I believe your characterization of her is inaccurate.  She and her husband are both truly passionate about their values and got into politics to serve what they believe in.  She would have made an excellent governor as well.

A person who supports Trump has no values.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

So looks like we won Shelby County (duh) and flipped some offices there, good. Of course we won, it takes disaster tier dem candidates to lose a majority black county lol, but the margins we got out of shelby tonight were absolutely pathetic, We should be winning by more than teen mov's in Shelby County TN.

[YE]

So looks like we won Shelby County (duh) and flipped some offices there, good. Of course we won, it takes disaster tier dem candidates to lose a majority black county lol, but the margins we got out of shelby tonight were absolutely pathetic, We should be winning by more than teen mov's in Shelby County TN.

The margins don't matter because....

ITT Tender shows his lack of understanding of Southern politics and primaries.

In the vast majority of TN - both geographically and population-wise - the GOP rules. Everywhere else, Dems already dominate; virtually no competitive areas. That's important to understand in the context of primaries, as many voters from the opposing party vote in the dominant party's primary for influence. However, throughout most of the South, it's a one-way affair; i.e. GOP voters in Democratic areas vote in the GOP primary, and DEM voters in GOP areas also vote in the GOP primary. That's because the GOP top-ticket contests are always either important or contested, whereas the DEM contests aren't. That's why GOP ballots are 43% in Shelby County, 70% in Knox County, 74% in Williamson County and 5-15 points more GOP than in general elections everywhere else.

With nothing remotely competitive at the top of the ballot in the Democratic primary, of course practically every GOP voter + like one-third of Dems are going to pull a GOP ballot. It's very important to also point out that a huge element of this trend has nothing to do with whether DEM/GOP primaries have contested top-ticket races: much of it is fueled by local offices. People want to influence who is going to represent them, and in the vast majority of TN, that means voting in the GOP primary to pick the de-facto winner. This happens almost everywhere in the South, and it's nothing new.

A little-known secret is that 20-25% of Southern GOP primary voters in open states are actually Democrats, lol.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

So looks like we won Shelby County (duh) and flipped some offices there, good. Of course we won, it takes disaster tier dem candidates to lose a majority black county lol, but the margins we got out of shelby tonight were absolutely pathetic, We should be winning by more than teen mov's in Shelby County TN.

The margins don't matter because....

ITT Tender shows his lack of understanding of Southern politics and primaries.

In the vast majority of TN - both geographically and population-wise - the GOP rules. Everywhere else, Dems already dominate; virtually no competitive areas. That's important to understand in the context of primaries, as many voters from the opposing party vote in the dominant party's primary for influence. However, throughout most of the South, it's a one-way affair; i.e. GOP voters in Democratic areas vote in the GOP primary, and DEM voters in GOP areas also vote in the GOP primary. That's because the GOP top-ticket contests are always either important or contested, whereas the DEM contests aren't. That's why GOP ballots are 43% in Shelby County, 70% in Knox County, 74% in Williamson County and 5-15 points more GOP than in general elections everywhere else.

With nothing remotely competitive at the top of the ballot in the Democratic primary, of course practically every GOP voter + like one-third of Dems are going to pull a GOP ballot. It's very important to also point out that a huge element of this trend has nothing to do with whether DEM/GOP primaries have contested top-ticket races: much of it is fueled by local offices. People want to influence who is going to represent them, and in the vast majority of TN, that means voting in the GOP primary to pick the de-facto winner. This happens almost everywhere in the South, and it's nothing new.

A little-known secret is that 20-25% of Southern GOP primary voters in open states are actually Democrats, lol.

I'm even talking about the GE's in Shelby County TN today, very sad margins for us.

[Badger]

Anyway yeah, Bredesen and Dean will probably lose, but most people already knew that. The key is that Dems are going to massively improve here (and mostly everywhere.)

THANK you!

Nice to see someone here who isn't a complete idiot at interpreting statistics.

Badger, I literally just posted about polling.

Again, Bredensen is ahead of Blackburn right now. (If polling isn't wrong).

Emerson actually shows Dean up by 4/2 against Black/Boyd.

Obviously Dem's are going to improve a lot. Look at these numbers, almost unreal.

Now, looking at these numbers I was expecting something big to happen in this primary. Yes, D turnout is up but I didn't expect R turn out to grow by 15%. Republicans still have their huge base and that's good news in a state like Tennessee. Again, maybe not exactly good compared to the previous years but VERY GOOD when you look at these terrible polls coming out. These numbers are enough for a comfortable-ish win in November because TN is very red.

NOW. Will republicans turn out again or will many of them change to Bredensen? How will independents vote? We don't know. That's the question.

By the way, we are here to discuss. You came to this thread and all you did was attack people. "You can't do math", "You're idiot".

I'm not sensitive but I would rather have a discussion. I think mods agree with me.

For the umpteenth time, my point, and admitted frustration, is that neither I nor the tweet I referred to ever claim that this demonstrated Branson was a lock, or even favored, in November. That. Is. Not. The. Point. Either. Of. Us. Made.

Your and tenders point was that a dramatic increase in voter turnout among Democrats was great news for the Republicans. That is silly. End of discussion.

[Badger]

So looks like we won Shelby County (duh) and flipped some offices there, good. Of course we won, it takes disaster tier dem candidates to lose a majority black county lol, but the margins we got out of shelby tonight were absolutely pathetic, We should be winning by more than teen mov's in Shelby County TN.

From what Memphis posted on a a d, winning the Shelby County mayoral race was actually a big deal for Democrats. Holding the election in off-year primaries depressed turnout, and manage to keep down pallet GOP strength in control in that county, surprisingly enough.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I never cared for Diane Black either. She seems some rich person who got into politics out of lack of anything better to do.

That, and the fact she seems to be embarrassed to actually be a woman.

Isn't she the one that always insisted on being called "Congressman"? Guess she won't have to worry about that anymore.

Yep, she and Blackburn. What is it with Tennessee women hating the fact they're women?

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm rooting for Basil Marceaux. He represents the average Tennessee Republican far better than any of these elitist politicians do.

https://youtu.be/1hvaeHllwtw

He kind of reminds me of a Tennessee Don Blankenship. Or is Don Blankenship a West Virginia Basil Marceaux?

Did Don Blankenship deliver the Christmas bop of the century? https://youtu.be/5hcVleGxx40

Maybe he will now. I would love to see Don Blankenship's version of that.

[Zaybay]

Very sad that I missed the primary

Here are my thoughts

1. Feel both bad and good about Diane losing. She was pretty insufferable, and hated the fact that she was a woman. But she also liked "Africa", and was an easier opponent. And I feel bad about how far she feel.

2. The Democratic numbers were great, around a 50% increase! Now, the Bagels of the world will try to say this is bad, but, as Griff mentions, this is much better than previously thought.

3. It seems the Dems had very easy primaries, and picked excellent candidates. Lets see how they do this November.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Very sad that I missed the primary

Here are my thoughts

1. Feel both bad and good about Diane losing. She was pretty insufferable, and hated the fact that she was a woman. But she also liked "Africa", and was an easier opponent. And I feel bad about how far she feel.

2. The Democratic numbers were great, around a 50% increase! Now, the Bagels of the world will try to say this is bad, but, as Griff mentions, this is much better than previously thought.

3. It seems the Dems had very easy primaries, and picked excellent candidates. Lets see how they do this November.

They will both lose barring Mooreings

[kcguy]

Since I had to actually look into these candidates for Tuesday's election, I thought I'd give my take on the candidates on my ballot.  In each race, I'm ranking them from most likely to least likely to win, based on campaign mailers, yard signs, TV commercials, and just my general gut sense.


KS Gubernatorial Democratic Candidates.

JOSH SVATY.  A former state legislator from west of Salina.  Only in Kansas would the top Democratic candidate for governor have a record of voting for increasing abortion restrictions.  (Then again, this is the state that gave us Joan Finney.)

LAURA KELLY.  The Senate Minority Whip, from the Topeka area.  She seems to be the establishment candidate, but I have the feeling she's running slightly behind Svaty.  Only in Kansas would the other top Democratic candidate have a record of voting for expanding concealed carry gun laws.

CARL BREWER.  As a former mayor of Wichita, he should be a familiar face to half of the state's TV viewers.  Unfortunately for him, it's not the half of the state where most of the Democratic primary voters live.  Here in KC, he's been completely invisible.

JACK BERGESON.  The most interesting thing I know about him is that he'll be eligible to run for president in 2040.

ARDEN ANDERSON.  Some farmer.  (Until I just looked him up, I didn't even realize he was from my county.)


US House 3rd District Democratic Candidates.

BRENT WELDER.  A political neophyte, he's the candidate who's been endorsed by Bernie Sanders.  Rumor has it that Republican incumbent Kevin Yoder has been trying to position Welder as his main opponent (similarly to how Claire McCaskill singled out Todd Akin 6 years ago).

TOM NIERMANN.  A private school teacher.  He and gubernatorial candidate Laura Kelly received the endorsements of a Republican state senator, who was then stripped of her committee assignments.

SHARICE DAVIDS.  A Native American, lesbian, and Obama White House Fellow.  She received the endorsement of the Kansas City Star, the main local newspaper.

MIKE McCAMON.  A corporate executive.

SYLVIA WILLIAMS.  I know nothing about her, but she's still been more visible than Jay Sidie.

JAY SIDIE.  Who?  Oh, yeah!  The 2016 nominee.

[IceSpear]

Kevin Yoder is safe because he won in 2010.

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/BrentWelder/status/1025908868864528386

Looks like this race is going to be thrown away by dumb primary voters.

A guy from St. Louis, Missouri who only came into the district a few months before his campaign has zero chance in hell of winning a district in Kansas.

[NewYorkExpress]

Since I had to actually look into these candidates for Tuesday's election, I thought I'd give my take on the candidates on my ballot.  In each race, I'm ranking them from most likely to least likely to win, based on campaign mailers, yard signs, TV commercials, and just my general gut sense.


KS Gubernatorial Democratic Candidates.

JOSH SVATY.  A former state legislator from west of Salina.  Only in Kansas would the top Democratic candidate for governor have a record of voting for increasing abortion restrictions.  (Then again, this is the state that gave us Joan Finney.)

LAURA KELLY.  The Senate Minority Whip, from the Topeka area.  She seems to be the establishment candidate, but I have the feeling she's running slightly behind Svaty.  Only in Kansas would the other top Democratic candidate have a record of voting for expanding concealed carry gun laws.

CARL BREWER.  As a former mayor of Wichita, he should be a familiar face to half of the state's TV viewers.  Unfortunately for him, it's not the half of the state where most of the Democratic primary voters live.  Here in KC, he's been completely invisible.

JACK BERGESON.  The most interesting thing I know about him is that he'll be eligible to run for president in 2040.

ARDEN ANDERSON.  Some farmer.  (Until I just looked him up, I didn't even realize he was from my county.)


US House 3rd District Democratic Candidates.

BRENT WELDER.  A political neophyte, he's the candidate who's been endorsed by Bernie Sanders.  Rumor has it that Republican incumbent Kevin Yoder has been trying to position Welder as his main opponent (similarly to how Claire McCaskill singled out Todd Akin 6 years ago).

TOM NIERMANN.  A private school teacher.  He and gubernatorial candidate Laura Kelly received the endorsements of a Republican state senator, who was then stripped of her committee assignments.

SHARICE DAVIDS.  A Native American, lesbian, and Obama White House Fellow.  She received the endorsement of the Kansas City Star, the main local newspaper.

MIKE McCAMON.  A corporate executive.

SYLVIA WILLIAMS.  I know nothing about her, but she's still been more visible than Jay Sidie.

JAY SIDIE.  Who?  Oh, yeah!  The 2016 nominee.

Please give us Svaty vs. Kobach, please give us Svaty vs. Kobach

If Kobach wins the nomination, Orman's vote share goes way up, because anti-Brownback Republicans probably aren't going to vote for him or for the Democrat.

[smoltchanov]

https://twitter.com/BrentWelder/status/1025908868864528386

Looks like this race is going to be thrown away by dumb primary voters.

A guy from St. Louis, Missouri who only came into the district a few months before his campaign has zero chance in hell of winning a district in Kansas.

+100

[Crumpets]

Just filled out my ballot for the Washington state primary. Probably the single most boring ballot I've seen as a voter.

[136or142]

If Ellen Lipton loses to Andy Levin would it be fair to say she lost because she wasn't everybody's cup of tea?

[Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon]

Results Pages:

For Michigan, Missouri, and Kansas, go here: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/08/07/us/elections/results-michigan-primary-elections.html  (this will take you to Michigan, links to the other states are visible on the page)

For Washington State, which will only count a portion of its ballots tonight, I recommend the SOS page at: http://results.vote.wa.gov/results/20180807/Federal.html . Please note that some WULFRIC PROJECTIONS could be delayed for days because of WA's odd counting system.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/BrentWelder/status/1025908868864528386

Looks like this race is going to be thrown away by dumb primary voters.

A guy from St. Louis, Missouri who only came into the district a few months before his campaign has zero chance in hell of winning a district in Kansas.

sigh, no, he is favored to win because this district is the most D friendly district, trended D hard in both 2012 and 2016, is being impacted by a large blue wave, has the lowest approvals for Trump in the state of KS, and has a rather average, not noticeable incumbent, not to mention the likely close race for governor.
I really doubt that the issue will really play well, as carpetbaggers do have a pretty good shot at winning elections. Usually, it needs something else, like the original state being from the coast, or the guy previously working for big money there, but he just lived in the neighboring state, not really anything there.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Please note that some WULFRIC PROJECTIONS could be delayed for days because of WA's odd counting system.

oh no, what a nightmare