CPRM, Pt 2: AL (RO) 7/17; GA (RO) 7/24; TN 8/2; 274K ballots left in CA

[Gass3268]

Going to bed. No use staying up. It's gonna take weeks to figure this out.

[Littlefinger]

Ca 39 looking like Kim-Cisneros according to Wasserman

[136or142]

1.Paul Cook and Tim Donnelly are at 65% in California 8.  Cook won 58% in 2016.  (I realize this isn't quite the same thing.)  

2.Ken Calvert is over 60% in District 42, he also received about 58% in 2016. (The Democrats had a recruitment failure here.)

OK, I thought there were more, but I'm not sure the Democrats will gain anything in California unless a Democrat makes the runoff against Rohrabacher (and that Democrat will probably lose in 2020 or 2022.)

[Kodak]

De Leon's lead over Bradley in LA County is almost canceled out by Bradley's lead over him in San Diego.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Woah, Montana!

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1004213519036887040

[Tintrlvr]

1.Paul Cook and Tim Donnelly are at 65% in California 8.  Cook won 58% in 2016.  (I realize this isn't quite the same thing.)  

2.Ken Calvert is over 60% in District 42, he also received about 58% in 2016. (The Democrats had a recruitment failure here.)

OK, I thought there were more, but I'm not sure the Democrats will gain anything in California unless a Democrat makes the runoff against Rohrabacher (and that Democrat will probably lose in 2020 or 2022.)

These figures will go way down. Early vote is strongly Republican in California, late vote strongly Democratic. Democrats will gain at least net 5% across the board (maybe 10% or more in some cases) by the final results relative to anything reporting now.

[136or142]

1.Paul Cook and Tim Donnelly are at 65% in California 8.  Cook won 58% in 2016.  (I realize this isn't quite the same thing.)  

2.Ken Calvert is over 60% in District 42, he also received about 58% in 2016. (The Democrats had a recruitment failure here.)

OK, I thought there were more, but I'm not sure the Democrats will gain anything in California unless a Democrat makes the runoff against Rohrabacher (and that Democrat will probably lose in 2020 or 2022.)

These figures will go way down. Early vote is strongly Republican in California, late vote strongly Democratic. Democrats will gain at least net 5% across the board (maybe closer to 10% in some cases) by the final results.

That would be nice.

[YE]

1.Paul Cook and Tim Donnelly are at 65% in California 8.  Cook won 58% in 2016.  (I realize this isn't quite the same thing.)  

2.Ken Calvert is over 60% in District 42, he also received about 58% in 2016. (The Democrats had a recruitment failure here.)

OK, I thought there were more, but I'm not sure the Democrats will gain anything in California unless a Democrat makes the runoff against Rohrabacher (and that Democrat will probably lose in 2020 or 2022.)

These figures will go way down. Early vote is strongly Republican in California, late vote strongly Democratic. Democrats will gain at least net 5% across the board (maybe closer to 10% in some cases) by the final results.

This but don't tell the concern troll red avatars or they'll go out of business.

[Matty]

Woah, Montana!

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1004213519036887040

Proof that this board is full on hack: looking at primary turnout (that they mocked trump for bragging about in past instances) as if it predicts jack....while ignoring outright data that shows republican incumbents are all over SOCAL improving on their 2016 margins.

Something has got to be done about the cheer-leading in primary results threads. We have idiots on here claiming montana and iowa are blue because of fricking primary turnout.

[136or142]

Woah, Montana!

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1004213519036887040

I can't believe no Republican primaried Greg Gianforte.  What is wrong with these people?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

These are the races I am covering but have not called:

IA: Sec. State D, Ag. Sec. R

MT: R and I Sen, CD 1 D

NM: Commissioner of Public Lands D

CA: Sen. Slot 2

I have made an executive decision that tonight's coverage will stop at around 1 AM EST (45 min from now). I will resume in the morning.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Shutout appears to have been averted in 39

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1004212814809128961

[MAINEiac4434]

It'll be Hernandez and Kounalakis in the LG race.

[Kodak]

Woah, Montana!

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1004213519036887040

Proof that this board is full on hack: looking at primary turnout (that they mocked trump for bragging about in past instances) as if it predicts jack....while ignoring outright data that shows republican incumbents are all over SOCAL improving on their 2016 margins.

Something has got to be done about the cheer-leading in primary results threads. We have idiots on here claiming montana and iowa are blue because of fricking primary turnout.

All but one of those SoCal districts has 2% or less reporting.

[ON Progressive]

Woah, Montana!

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1004213519036887040

Proof that this board is full on hack: looking at primary turnout (that they mocked trump for bragging about in past instances) as if it predicts jack....while ignoring outright data that shows republican incumbents are all over SOCAL improving on their 2016 margins.

Something has got to be done about the cheer-leading in primary results threads. We have idiots on here claiming montana and iowa are blue because of fricking primary turnout.

You’re forgetting the early vote in CA skews GOP, and also nobody said MT sand IA were Dem states LMAO

[IceSpear]

I know it's still a bit early to say this

Should've stopped there.

By the way, even after "100% is in" on the NYT, votes are going to continue flooding in over the next few weeks. Margins can and will change drastically.

I don't know about 'drastically.'

Hillary's margin in 2016 went from ~15 the day after the election to an end result of ~7. I'm sure there's plenty of other examples, but I don't really feel like hunting for them, since it's not like there's an easy way to find this type of thing.

[Gass3268]

Woah, Montana!

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1004213519036887040

Proof that this board is full on hack: looking at primary turnout (that they mocked trump for bragging about in past instances) as if it predicts jack....while ignoring outright data that shows republican incumbents are all over SOCAL improving on their 2016 margins.

Something has got to be done about the cheer-leading in primary results threads. We have idiots on here claiming montana and iowa are blue because of fricking primary turnout.

We won't know this exactly for weeks!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The heat of the takes in this thread is astounding.

pittsburgh steel is the most partisan cheerleader I have ever encountered in my many years of following politics on message boards.

This has to be a joke.

[Atlas Force]

Woah, Montana!

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1004213519036887040

Proof that this board is full on hack: looking at primary turnout (that they mocked trump for bragging about in past instances) as if it predicts jack....while ignoring outright data that shows republican incumbents are all over SOCAL improving on their 2016 margins.

Something has got to be done about the cheer-leading in primary results threads. We have idiots on here claiming montana and iowa are blue because of fricking primary turnout.

You’re forgetting the early vote in CA skews GOP, and also nobody said MT sand IA were Dem states LMAO

[MT Treasurer]

According to the Secretary of State's website, Rosendale and Williams are both leading by less than 100 votes right now.

[OneJ]

Might as well post this:

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1004210819893284865

[Pericles]

The heat of the takes in this thread is astounding.

pittsburgh steel is the most partisan cheerleader I have ever encountered in my many years of following politics on message boards.

You don't get to insult other people, LimoLiberal.

[136or142]

   2.2%   Rocky De La Fuente   GOP   41,501

Rockymania!

[MAINEiac4434]

Who the hell are these morons on MSNBC.

[ON Progressive]

   2.2%   Rocky De La Fuente   GOP   41,501

Rockymania!

Feeling the de la Fuentum here!