CPRM, Pt 2: AL (RO) 7/17; GA (RO) 7/24; TN 8/2; 274K ballots left in CA

[Gass3268]

2018 Congressional Primary Calendar (Poll Closing Times - Eastern Time):

Texas: Mar 6 (8:00 PM | 9:00 PM)

Illinois: March 20 (8:00 PM)

Indiana: May 8 (6:00 PM | 7:00 PM)
North Carolina: May 8 (7:30 PM)
Ohio: May 8 (7:30 PM)
West Virginia: May 8 (7:30 PM)

Idaho: May 15 (10:00 PM | 11:00 PM)
Nebraska: May 15 (9:00 PM)
Oregon: May 15 (10:00 PM | 11:00 PM)
Pennsylvania: May 15 (8:00 PM)

Arkansas: May 22 (8:30 PM)
Georgia: May 22 (7:00 PM)
Kentucky: May 22 (6:00 PM | 7:00 PM)
Texas (Runoff): May 22 (8:00 PM | 9:00 PM)

Alabama: June 5 (8:00 PM)
California: June 5 (11:00 PM) (Still Counting - little over 274K votes left to count)
Iowa: June 5 (10:00 PM)
Mississippi: June 5 (8:00 PM)
Montana: June 5 (10:00 PM)
New Jersey: June 5 (8:00 PM)
New Mexico: June 5 (9:00 PM)
South Dakota: June 5 (8:00 PM | 9:00 PM)

Maine: June 12 (8:00 PM)
Nevada: June 12 (10:00 PM)
North Dakota: June 12 (10:00 PM | 11:00 PM)
South Carolina: June 12 (7:00 PM)
Virginia: June 12 (7:00 PM)

Arkansas (Runoff): June 19 (8:30 PM)
District of Columbia: June 19 (8:00 PM)

Colorado: June 26 (9:00 PM)
Maryland: June 26 (8:00 PM)
Mississippi (Runoff): June 26 (8:00 PM)
New York: June 26 (9:00 PM)
Oklahoma: June 26 (8:00 PM)
South Carolina (Runoff): June 26 (7:00 PM)
Utah: June 26 (10:00 PM)

Alabama (Runoff): July 17 (8:00 PM)

Georgia (Runoff): July 24 (7:00 PM)

Tennessee: Aug. 2 (Thursday) (8:00 PM)

Kansas: Aug. 7 (8:00 | 9:00 PM)
Michigan: Aug. 7 (8:00 | 9:00 PM)
Missouri: Aug. 7 (8:00 PM)
Washington: Aug. 7 (11:00 PM)

Hawaii: Aug. 11 (Saturday) (12:00 AM)

Connecticut: Aug. 14 (8:00 PM)
Minnesota: Aug. 14 (9:00 PM)
Vermont: Aug. 14 (7:00 PM)
Wisconsin: Aug. 14 (9:00 PM)

Alaska: Aug. 21 (12:00 AM | 1:00 AM)
Wyoming: Aug. 21 (9:00 PM)

Arizona: Aug. 28 (10:00 PM)
Florida: Aug. 28 (7:00 | 8:00 PM)
Oklahoma (Runoff): Aug. 28 (8:00 PM)

Massachusetts: Sept. 4 (8:00 PM)

Delaware: Sept. 6 (8:00 PM)

New Hampshire: Sept. 11 (8:00 PM)


Rhode Island: Sept. 12 (Wednesday) (8:00 PM)

Louisiana: Nov. 6 (9:00 PM)

Louisiana (Runoff): Dec. 8 (9:00 PM)

Link To New York Times Results Page

Link to Previous Thread

[Gass3268]

Looks like the other thread got locked for size. Here is another thread.

[Strudelcutie4427]

Does anyone know if Roy Moore is trying to run for anything else in Alabama?

[KingSweden]

6/5 will be the busiest day yet!

[Gass3268]

6/5 will be the busiest days yet!

There is no way that California won't be done counting votes until weeks after June 5.

[Alabama_Indy10]

Does anyone know if Roy Moore is trying to run for anything else in Alabama?

Nope. But a couple of his aides are. And I wouldn’t rule out him running for something in the future.

[Oryxslayer]

6/5 will be the busiest days yet!

There is no way that California won't be done counting votes until weeks after June 5.

Definitely. My ballot shows up in DC next week - no way it gets counted on primary night. I look forward to Wulfric making prediction mistakes or having to wait weeks to make calls because of absentees.

[Yellowhammer]

Does anyone know if Roy Moore is trying to run for anything else in Alabama?

No he isn't, but don't be surprised if he comes back one day.
His ally Tom Parker is running for Chief Justice.

[KingSweden]

Just think of all the terrible hot takes we’ll get in June 5th.

It’ll be like Josh Brolin in Sicario:

“What’s the plan?”
“To... dramatically overreact.”

[Politician]

Can't wait for this forum's #analysis of the Montana results.

"More Republicans than Democrats voted in Montana, an elastic swing state. Blue wave DEAD!"

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Can't wait for this forum's #analysis of the Montana results.

"More Republicans than Democrats voted in Montana, an elastic swing state. Blue wave DEAD!"

Hey, at least democrats have already picked up 17 house seats. Shame about Joe Donnelly losing, though. And shame that Cordray / Abrams couldn't quite win.

[wesmoorenerd]

The biggest question here for me is whether or not the CA Democratic Party s up big time and wastes an opportunity to take Royce, Rohrabacher, or Issa's seats. All three, especially Rohrabacher's seat, are looking highly vulnerable to a Democratic lockout because of the stupid blanket primary system. If the Dems fail to get a candidate in any of these, it's clear proof that A: the dumbasses like Omar Siddiqui that are getting five percent of the vote should've dropped out a long time ago and B: the CA Democratic Party needed to put their finger on the scale in that regard much earlier than they tried to and whittled the field down. The stakes are clearly too high for them to do otherwise in the future.

[YE]

The biggest question here for me is whether or not the CA Democratic Party s up big time and wastes an opportunity to take Royce, Rohrabacher, or Issa's seats. All three, especially Rohrabacher's seat, are looking highly vulnerable to a Democratic lockout because of the stupid blanket primary system. If the Dems fail to get a candidate in any of these, it's clear proof that A: the dumbasses like Omar Siddiqui that are getting five percent of the vote should've dropped out a long time ago and B: the CA Democratic Party needed to put their finger on the scale in that regard much earlier than they tried to and whittled the field down. The stakes are clearly too high for them to do otherwise in the future.

Royce and Issa all have a clear frontrunner in Cisernos and Applegate respectively. An R vs R runoff is only somewhat possible in Rohrabacher's seat, but people underestimate how much needs to go wrong for the Dems for that to happen.

[wesmoorenerd]

The biggest question here for me is whether or not the CA Democratic Party s up big time and wastes an opportunity to take Royce, Rohrabacher, or Issa's seats. All three, especially Rohrabacher's seat, are looking highly vulnerable to a Democratic lockout because of the stupid blanket primary system. If the Dems fail to get a candidate in any of these, it's clear proof that A: the dumbasses like Omar Siddiqui that are getting five percent of the vote should've dropped out a long time ago and B: the CA Democratic Party needed to put their finger on the scale in that regard much earlier than they tried to and whittled the field down. The stakes are clearly too high for them to do otherwise in the future.

Royce and Issa all have a clear frontrunner in Cisernos and Applegate respectively. An R vs R runoff is only somewhat possible in Rohrabacher's seat, but people underestimate how much needs to go wrong for the Dems for that to happen.

Applegate is certainly a frontrunner for the Dems, but I think it's entirely possible that we end up with a Chavez-Harkey GE. I'll admit that it's not incredibly likely, but I do think Harkey has been gaining ground lately and it wouldn't take too much to push her over the top.

[Gass3268]

Considering the other thread got locked, can this one get stickied?

[Politician]

I don't think we'll see any R-R or D-D races outside of the PVI+20 districts. Voters are at least somewhat strategic.

Maybe CA-48, but the other two should be fine.

[Coastal Elitist]

It's hard to be strategic when there are so many candidates running in the competitive CA races.

[KingSweden]

I don't think we'll see any R-R or D-D races outside of the PVI+20 districts. Voters are at least somewhat strategic.

Maybe CA-48, but the other two should be fine.

That’s the one I’m slightly concerned about

[Gass3268]

I don't think we'll see any R-R or D-D races outside of the PVI+20 districts. Voters are at least somewhat strategic.

Maybe CA-48, but the other two should be fine.

That’s the one I’m slightly concerned about

Looks like the DCCC agrees

https://twitter.com/cam_joseph/status/999690741302616066

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I don't think we'll see any R-R or D-D races outside of the PVI+20 districts. Voters are at least somewhat strategic.

Maybe CA-48, but the other two should be fine.

That’s the one I’m slightly concerned about

Looks like the DCCC agrees

https://twitter.com/cam_joseph/status/999690741302616066

I think it'd be better for them to drop money on Rouda.... why are they attacking Baugh? They could just increase name recognition for him and make Republicans vote for Baugh to spite dems.

[KingSweden]

I don't think we'll see any R-R or D-D races outside of the PVI+20 districts. Voters are at least somewhat strategic.

Maybe CA-48, but the other two should be fine.

That’s the one I’m slightly concerned about

Looks like the DCCC agrees

https://twitter.com/cam_joseph/status/999690741302616066

I think it'd be better for them to drop money on Rouda.... why are they attacking Baugh? They could just increase name recognition for him and make Republicans vote for Baugh to spite dems.

Yeah seems like an odd strategy

[Coastal Elitist]

Currently a little over one million mail-in ballots have been turned in.
http://www.politicaldata.com/absentee-vote-tracker/

Democrats: 44%
Republicans 33%
No Party Preference: 18%
Other: 4%

A further look at the current numbers shows that Republicans have a turn in advantage in every city in Orange County except Santa Ana, Laguna Beach, Laguna Woods, Seal Beach and Stanton. Buena Park currently is tied percentage wise. Orange County Republicans seem to be motivated to vote. Republicans hold a large advantage in CA-39 (+12), CA-45 (+16) and CA-48 (+11). They hold a narrow margin in CA-49 (+2).

[Coastal Elitist]

Currently a little over one million mail-in ballots have been turned in.
http://www.politicaldata.com/absentee-vote-tracker/

Democrats: 44%
Republicans 33%
No Party Preference: 18%
Other: 4%

A further look at the current numbers shows that Republicans have a turn in advantage in every city in Orange County except Santa Ana, Laguna Beach, Laguna Woods, Seal Beach and Stanton. Buena Park currently is tied percentage wise. Orange County Republicans seem to be motivated to vote. Republicans hold a large advantage in CA-39 (+12), CA-45 (+16) and CA-48 (+11). They hold a narrow margin in CA-49 (+2).

What percent of ballots are expected to be mail vs. in-person?

In the last midterm in 2014, 3,096,104 voted by mail and 4,461,346 voted in person. You can see historical data from past elections here: http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/historical-absentee/

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

One possible explanation for the apparent republican surge is that Dems hit their absolute ceiling in the state in 2016 and so Republicans have nowhere to go but up. This wouldn't necessarily preclude dems from picking up some of the Clinton-Republican Seats, but it would mean that despite democratic dreams, CA-4, CA-22, and CA-50 are completely safe.

[Oryxslayer]

Currently a little over one million mail-in ballots have been turned in.
http://www.politicaldata.com/absentee-vote-tracker/

Democrats: 44%
Republicans 33%
No Party Preference: 18%
Other: 4%

A further look at the current numbers shows that Republicans have a turn in advantage in every city in Orange County except Santa Ana, Laguna Beach, Laguna Woods, Seal Beach and Stanton. Buena Park currently is tied percentage wise. Orange County Republicans seem to be motivated to vote. Republicans hold a large advantage in CA-39 (+12), CA-45 (+16) and CA-48 (+11). They hold a narrow margin in CA-49 (+2).

Well, they do have a registration advantage down there. We won't know till the polls close whether those Reps are as loyal to their congressman as they were to Trump in 2016.