MS Megathread: Hyde-Smith wins by 8

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

When is the jungle primary?

[OneJ]

When is the jungle primary?

November 6.

[Politician]

Espy now definitely has a path to the runoff. However, he'd face long odds unless he faces Chris McDaniel, who he would beat.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

When is the jungle primary?

November 6.

I thought the runoff was the part that was going to coincide with election day.

[7,052,770]

Big?

https://www.twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/993915123197661184

Lean R -> Likely R.

But if Shelton was a dud and that's why he's dropping out, Lean R was a unrealistic rating to begin with.

[7,052,770]

Espy now definitely has a path to the runoff. However, he'd face long odds unless he faces Chris McDaniel, who he would beat.

"Path"

Barring a major scandal, he's safely in. There's virtually no chance he's held under 33, and even if he somehow were he would still need CHS and McDaniel to split the votes just so.

The runoff is Safe Espy and Likely Hyde-Smith.

The runoff result is Likely Hyde-Smith, unless McDaniel somehow sneaks into 2nd and knocks her down to 3rd, in which case it's a Tossup.

[Skill and Chance]

Big?

https://www.twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/993915123197661184

Lean R -> Likely R.

But if Shelton was a dud and that's why he's dropping out, Lean R was a unrealistic rating to begin with.

Given special election turnout since Trump has been in office, I would automatically move anything that goes to a runoff one rating left of where it would otherwise be.  Lean R is justified here (and in e.g. GA-GOV) as long as there is a Dem in the runoff.

[OneJ]

When is the jungle primary?

November 6.

I thought the runoff was the part that was going to coincide with election day.

The runoff is the election that will be held three weeks after election day on November 27.

[Skill and Chance]

When is the jungle primary?

November 6.

I thought the runoff was the part that was going to coincide with election day.

The runoff is the election that will be held three weeks after election day on November 27.

Woah, that close to Thanksgiving?!  Lean D.

[GeorgiaModerate]

When is the jungle primary?

November 6.

I thought the runoff was the part that was going to coincide with election day.

The runoff is the election that will be held three weeks after election day on November 27.

Woah, that close to Thanksgiving?!  Lean D.

That's the week after Thanksgiving, which falls on Nov. 22 this year (the earliest possible date for it).

[7,052,770]

The Republican primary in MS-3 is getting a lot of attention, but the Democratic primary is an interesting race:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2018/05/16/michael-aycox-mississippis-first-openly-gay-candidate-congress/615442002/

Michael Aycox is a 30-year-old gay policeman and Navy veteran.

Michael Evans is a a state representative who voted yes on HB 1523, which allowed businesses special protections to discriminate on the basis of conservative opinions of whether gay marriage and transgender are OK (but not liberal opinions).

I think it would be good for Mississippi for Aycox to be the nominee, or at least have a good showing. Initially I assumed Evans would be a shoo-in since he's a real politican with an actual base of supporters who elected him, but he got around 500 votes in the 2015 primaries and ran unopposed in the general, so I wonder how many people even know who he is. It may just be random luck of the draw.

Also, the seat is Safe R in November no matter regardless of whether there are hurt feelings after the Republican primary, so it's not like voting Aycox over Evans is hurting Democratic chances to take back the House.

[smoltchanov]

The Republican primary in MS-3 is getting a lot of attention, but the Democratic primary is an interesting race:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2018/05/16/michael-aycox-mississippis-first-openly-gay-candidate-congress/615442002/

Michael Aycox is a 30-year-old gay policeman and Navy veteran.

Michael Evans is a a state representative who voted yes on HB 1523, which allowed businesses special protections to discriminate on the basis of conservative opinions of whether gay marriage and transgender are OK (but not liberal opinions).

I think it would be good for Mississippi for Aycox to be the nominee, or at least have a good showing. Initially I assumed Evans would be a shoo-in since he's a real politican with an actual base of supporters who elected him, but he got around 500 votes in the 2015 primaries and ran unopposed in the general, so I wonder how many people even know who he is. It may just be random luck of the draw.

Also, the seat is Safe R in November no matter regardless of whether there are hurt feelings after the Republican primary, so it's not like voting Aycox over Evans is hurting Democratic chances to take back the House.

There is small difference still: Evans has 1% chance for election (Republican implosion by some reasons), Aycox - identically 0%

[OneJ]

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Source

No surprise since primaries generally have lower turnout but still...

[7,052,770]

Not too surprised. If it weren't for the Jackson Free Press they set out in Taco Bell, I wouldn't even know there's an election going on right now.

[OneJ]

I also forgot to mention that I’ve seen a few ads being aired by a few candidates lately including Whit Hughes (who has been airing ads since early May iirc), Michael Guest, Wicker, and Howard Sherman (the former two are running for GOP primary of MS-03 & Sherman is running for Wicker’s seat on the Dem side against David Baria and Omeria Scott, both of whom are Representatives in the state House).

[7,052,770]

Anyone want to throw out any predictions?

40 Baria
31 Sherman
18 Scott
6 Bohren
3 Garland
2 Maurice

31 Guest
26 Parker
22 Hughes
15 Doty
4 Dunn
2 Tate

55 Aycox
45 Evans


I may be super embarrassed by these tomorrow.

[OneJ]

Anyone want to throw out any predictions?

40 Baria
31 Sherman
18 Scott
6 Bohren
3 Garland
2 Maurice

31 Guest
26 Parker
22 Hughes
15 Doty
4 Dunn
2 Tate

55 Aycox
45 Evans


I may be super embarrassed by these tomorrow.

I'll take a shot since I was embarrassed nearly two years ago.

Senate Dem Primary:
37% Sherman (he's the only candidate I saw with ads)
33% Baria
22% Scott
8% Others

MS-03 GOP Primary:
33% Guest
27% Hughes
21% Parker
15% Doty
4% Others

MS-03 Dem Primary:
57% Evans
43% Aycox

[7,052,770]

I'm going to get even sillier and put this out there for the D primary senate race.

Essentially I expect Baria to win most counties because his name comes first on the ballot and this isn't a high profile race. This often happens in low-key Democratic primaries, such as 2006 senate, 2012 senate, and the tragic 2015 governor primary.

Sherman and Scott do well in their local areas. I also have Sherman doing well in Madison and Rankin because of the ad bombs.

I have Garland sneaking out a win in his home county, which is not without precedent in D primaries, but I don't have the other 2 also-rans doing that, since Maurice is from the Coast and that should be super strong Baria, and Bohren is from an unincorporated town in Yazoo.

I didn't spend a lot of time on this, so if you find an oddity or absurdity, that's probably the reason.

[OneJ]

I think the only change I might do is turning Hinds into the light Sherman color because of his ads being shown a lot here, as well. But otherwise, I think that this is a reasonable map/prediction.

[GMantis]

Anyone want to throw out any predictions?

Scott 34%
Baria 30%
Sherman 28%
Others 8%

[OneJ]

Might as well post this:

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1004210819893284865

[7,052,770]

40 Baria
31 Sherman
18 Scott
6 Bohren
3 Garland
2 Maurice

Not embarrassing

31 Guest
26 Parker
22 Hughes
15 Doty
4 Dunn
2 Tate

Not embarrassing

55 Aycox
45 Evans

Kinda embarrassing. I never once saw any evidence that Evans even ran a campaign. I realize that Aycox is gay, but I assumed that most people probably wouldn't know that.

[smoltchanov]

IMHO - Evans is a "conservative backup". In case something happens with Republican nominee (God forbid), or really BIG scandal, district will still be represented by white, and, generally, conservative representative. Not a  Black gay person. Which is what most of the district population probably wants. Evans will not seriously campaign in this heavily Republican inelastic district, but "in case" - will be good replacement.

[OneJ]

IMHO - Evans is a "conservative backup". In case something happens with Republican nominee (God forbid), or really BIG scandal, district will still be represented by white, and, generally, conservative representative. Not a  Black gay person. Which is what most of the district population probably wants. Evans will not seriously campaign in this heavily Republican inelastic district, but "in case" - will be good replacement.

Correction: Aycox isn’t black. However, I do agree that Evans has a small non-zero chance to flip the district if something happens.

[smoltchanov]

IMHO - Evans is a "conservative backup". In case something happens with Republican nominee (God forbid), or really BIG scandal, district will still be represented by white, and, generally, conservative representative. Not a  Black gay person. Which is what most of the district population probably wants. Evans will not seriously campaign in this heavily Republican inelastic district, but "in case" - will be good replacement.

Correction: Aycox isn’t black. However, I do agree that Evans has a small non-zero chance to flip the district if something happens.

Thanks for correction!