Trump approval ratings thread 1.3

[ON Progressive]

Quinnipiac:

58% Disapprove (51% Strongly) (+3)
38% Approve (28% Strongly) (+2)

Source

Their early July poll was 40-55, so this is actually +3 disapproval and -2 approval.

[Yank2133]

Man, Trump's numbers are awful.

[Oryxslayer]

Quinnipiac:

58% Disapprove (51% Strongly) (+3)
38% Approve (28% Strongly) (+2)

Source

Their early July poll was 40-55, so this is actually +3 disapproval and -2 approval.

if their Russian numbers are to believe...man Trump is going to be in for a world of hurt for the next few weeks.

[Yank2133]

This poll is also further proof that the narrative some on the left like to push about Russia not matter is wrong, people care. Anytime something Russia related comes up, Trump's numbers go down. Dems should talk about Russia and tie with Trump's obvious corruption.

[BudgieForce]

The Qunnipiac poll was taken entirely after Helsinki. I know it cant be helped but it would have been helpful if WSJ had waited a few days.

[junior chįmp]

Ah looks like Limo is back at it again

Yes, noted Republican poster on rrh, Andrew 1918, (aka his sock name limo"liberal") certainly is a hack for his party.

Flim-flam man Andrew is back to his old tomfoolery of creating a foofaraw over outlier polls. Release the ban

Man, Trump's numbers are awful.

Things will never get better for Trump. The GOP will get crushed in 2018 and Trump will lose in 2020. Atlas needs to quit thinking he can ever turn it around. Trump is too much of a mentally unstable choke artist to ever be an effective leader.

[BlueSwan]

Ah looks like Limo is back at it again

Yes, noted Republican poster on rrh, Andrew 1918, (aka his sock name limo"liberal") certainly is a hack for his party.

Flim-flam man Andrew is back to his old tomfoolery of creating a foofaraw over outlier polls. Release the ban

Man, Trump's numbers are awful.

Things will never get better for Trump. The GOP will get crushed in 2018 and Trump will lose in 2020. Atlas needs to quit thinking he can ever turn it around. Trump is too much of a mentally unstable choke artist to ever be an effective leader.

Trust the american people at your own peril. Most people thought Trump had no chance in hell of beating Clinton, including the man who brought Clinton down (Comey).

[pbrower2a]

Read down to see the relevant material at https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/cagle-vs-kemp-headlines-runoff-day-georgia-n893971:


Polling of a significant part of the electorate: people who hold both Parties in contempt:

So how are these kinds of voters breaking now? Well, our latest NBC/WSJ poll finds that Democrats are over-performing among voters who hold negative views of both parties (representing 13 percent of the sample). Here’s the past and current congressional preference among these voters:

- 2010 merged NBC/WSJ poll: 49 percent GOP, 23 percent DEM (R+26)
- 2014 merged NBC/WSJ poll: 51 percent GOP, 24 percent DEM (R+27)
- 2018 merged NBC/WSJ poll (through June): 50 percent DEM, 36 percent GOP (D+14)
- 2018 NBC/WSJ poll from July: 55 percent DEM, 25 percent GOP (D+30)

What’s more in our current poll, these voters disproportionately are down on Trump (68 percent disapprove of his job, versus 52 percent of all voters), and they are enthusiastic about the upcoming midterms (63 percent of them have high interest, versus 55 percent of all voters who say this).

Democratic candidates are increasingly seen as being out of the mainstream

Those numbers above are good news for Democrats in the NBC/WSJ poll. Here’s some bad news, however: Democratic candidates for Congress are increasingly seen as out of the mainstream — a change from 2012 and 2016.

According to our poll, 33 percent of voters view Democratic congressional candidates as in the mainstream, versus 56 percent who say they are out of step. That’s essentially the same score that GOP congressional candidates get — 33 percent mainstream, 57 percent out of step.

But the 33 percent viewing Democratic candidates in the mainstream is a drop of 15 points from 2016 and 12 points from 2012 (while the GOP numbers have been pretty flat).

Comment: this suggests a Blue Wave in 2018. That is a 57% swing in a significant part of the electorate, probably comparable to the swing between the near-landslide victory for Barack Obama and the rise of the Tea Party to political influence.

It also suggests that Donald Trump will lose, possibly in a landslide, taking a bunch of Republican Senators (echo of the 2014 election that gave Republicans control of the Senate) with him.

[OkThen]

Quinnipiac has Trump at 38/58 compared to 43/52 a month ago...

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2557

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Quinnipiac has Trump at 38/58 compared to 43/52 a month ago...

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2557

A little late 😉

[OkThen]

Quinnipiac has Trump at 38/58 compared to 43/52 a month ago...

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2557

A little late 😉

A little is being kind, my bad.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Trump not popular in the new PA-17:

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1021788577334738944

What is going on in Beaver County? One would think otherwise with the tariffs and this being one of the Ground Zero's of the Rust Belt decline...

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Trump not popular in the new PA-17:

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1021788577334738944

What is going on in Beaver County? One would think otherwise with the tariffs and this being one of the Ground Zero's of the Rust Belt decline...

Beaver actually voted for Wolf in the 2014 Governor's race, so I wouldn't be surprised that a lot of those Trump-Wolf voters are going to Lamb.

The failure of the tax cuts to help working class members is probably a large part of why this is happening. I would also factor in the extraordinary weakness of the GOP's slate (Wagner and Barletta), and Fetterman's strength in Western PA.

[Comrade Funk]

Trump not popular in the new PA-17:

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1021788577334738944

What is going on in Beaver County? One would think otherwise with the tariffs and this being one of the Ground Zero's of the Rust Belt decline...

Tariffs didn't bring back any jobs. Shocker.

[KingSweden]

The Qunnipiac poll was taken entirely after Helsinki. I know it cant be helped but it would have been helpful if WSJ had waited a few days.

It’s not WSJ’s fault they went into the field before a Presidential screwup. I know that you know that, of course, but it deserves to be said.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Monmouth poll for PA17 says that 48% say Trump's tariffs and trade policies hurt the economy while 31% say they help.

[Tartarus Sauce]

This is the first time I've seen his strong disapproval break over 50% in a poll. Also worth pointing out that voters who disapproved of both candidates in 2016 broke heavily for Trump and were essential to his squeakers in PA, MI, and WI. If bipartisan disapprovers are breaking that heavily for the Democrats come November, on top of Democratic enthusiasm, we're easily looking at a double digit popular vote landslide in favor of Democrats in the House.

[IceSpear]

Trump not popular in the new PA-17:

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1021788577334738944

Maybe they shouldn't have voted for him.

You sound elitist. Are you questioning their judgment?!

[Pyro]

Trump not popular in the new PA-17:

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1021788577334738944

Maybe they shouldn't have voted for him.

You sound elitist. Are you questioning their judgment?!

Or lack thereof, sure.

[BudgieForce]

Kind of sad when you step back and look at all the obsessing we do over Trump's poll movements.

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac:

58% Disapprove (51% Strongly) (+3)
38% Approve (28% Strongly) (+2)

Source

Their early July poll was 40-55, so this is actually +3 disapproval and -2 approval.

I have thought that disapproval of any kind was big trouble -- but "strong disapproval" is big, bad trouble. This has gone from "wolf at the door" to "tiger at the door". 

If this holds in 2020, then anyone canvassing for Trump risks extreme hostility. That's not to say that the Democrat wins 58% of the vote; that is saying that President Trump gets about 42% of the vote. A reasonable ceiling for the Democrat is about 55% of the vote. But even with the Democrat getting only 45% pf the vote (a reasonable floor for an unusually-weak nominee), the Democrat wins. Third-Party and independent (probably vanity campaigns by plutocrats claiming that their business expertise is more relevant than his to running the government) candidates devouring much of the usual vote for a Republican candidate. There will still be a big conservative vote, but a big chunk of it will not be for Trump.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Quinnipiac:

58% Disapprove (51% Strongly) (+3)
38% Approve (28% Strongly) (-2)

Source

This poll makes me happy, but Trump seems to have a bedrock of 38% support for almost every poll even slightly related to him.

[pbrower2a]

38% is historically rock-bottom support for just about any main Party's nominee should he seek re-election.

[kyc0705]

[twenty42]

Kind of sad when you step back and look at all the obsessing we do over Trump's poll movements.

This isn’t entirely true...you only obsess over downward poll movements. A 0.4% downtick in his numbers will get five threads, but a 0.4% uptick is meaningless noise.

Thunder98 should never call out Hofoid again after a ridiculous post like this.