Trump approval ratings thread 1.3

[twenty42]

Twenty this may be shocking to you but some folks actually care about other people

Sure. And I guess there is no better way of caring for one another than idling your time away in front of a keyboard. I am surprised all these SJW’s on here have time to post so much, given all the charity work they must be doing.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Vermont (VPR-Vermont PBS)

28% approve
61% disapprove

http://projects.vpr.net/vpr-vermont-pbs-poll

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[twenty42]

Vermont (VPR-Vermont PBS)

28% approve
61% disapprove

http://projects.vpr.net/vpr-vermont-pbs-poll

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Libs only get pissy about polls that don’t confirm their biases. If a poll comes out that shows low approvals for Trump in a red state, there will be a half dozen threads on it.

[BudgieForce]

Gallup:

Approve - 42%(-1)
Disapprove - 54%(+2)

https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/1021408395893633024

[Hindsight was 2020]

Gallup:

Approve - 42%(-1)
Disapprove - 54%(+2)

https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/1021408395893633024

Between this and NBC it’s clear opinions of Trump are just baked in

[KingSweden]

Gallup:

Approve - 42%(-1)
Disapprove - 54%(+2)

https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/1021408395893633024

Between this and NBC it’s clear opinions of Trump are just baked in

Yup. Don’t think it’ll budge much barring a recession

[pbrower2a]

Gallup:

Approve - 42%(-1)
Disapprove - 54%(+2)

https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/1021408395893633024

Between this and NBC it’s clear opinions of Trump are just baked in

Yup. Don’t think it’ll budge much barring a recession

Or a collapse in the income of the farm sector, which involves rather few people.


54% disapproval means that 54% of the people will vote for someone else. Democrats will need only unite behind their nominee and they will elect that person for President.

[Thunder98]

NBC/WSJ poll: Trump is stronger with the base, weaker with the middle

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/nbc-wsj-poll-trump-stronger-base-weaker-middle-n893601

[twenty42]

Gallup:

Approve - 42%(-1)
Disapprove - 54%(+2)

https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/1021408395893633024

Between this and NBC it’s clear opinions of Trump are just baked in

Yup. Don’t think it’ll budge much barring a recession

Or a collapse in the income of the farm sector, which involves rather few people.


54% disapproval means that 54% of the people will vote for someone else. Democrats will need only unite behind their nominee and they will elect that person for President.

Unless, you know, some of that 54% disapprove of his opponent. That would make disapproval cancel out and turn it into a lesser of two evils election, which is where incumbency and the economy start to become distinct advantages for Trump.

In all honesty, can you give me a credible message for Democrats to run on in 2020 if the economy is doing well and we are not at war? Candidates who run against incumbents have to run on a “change” platform by nature. What kind of change can Dems get people excited about at this point?

[pbrower2a]

NBC/WSJ poll: Trump is stronger with the base, weaker with the middle

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/nbc-wsj-poll-trump-stronger-base-weaker-middle-n893601

That's how it goes with those who take extremist stances that pretend that the other side has no relevance. Some people love to see the Other Side pulling their hair and rending their clothes, cursing at the 'inexorable reality' of their side winning dominion. Schadenfreude is a cheap enticement and often relates to the Other Side having to sell off stuff cheaply to survive. At the classic extremes, Commies were delighted to show how old elites (clergy, landowners, and capitalists) cursed 'socialist' states from afar; Nazis were delighted to show Jews cursing the 'new Germany'. Making scapegoats, pariahs, and 'losers' out of political opponents can please the truest believers.

It is also terribly immature. 

[pbrower2a]

Gallup:

Approve - 42%(-1)
Disapprove - 54%(+2)

https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/1021408395893633024

Between this and NBC it’s clear opinions of Trump are just baked in

Yup. Don’t think it’ll budge much barring a recession

Or a collapse in the income of the farm sector, which involves rather few people.


54% disapproval means that 54% of the people will vote for someone else. Democrats will need only unite behind their nominee and they will elect that person for President.

Unless, you know, some of that 54% disapprove of his opponent. That would make disapproval cancel out and turn it into a lesser of two evils election, which is where incumbency and the economy start to become distinct advantages for Trump.

In all honesty, can you give me a credible message for Democrats to run on in 2020 if the economy is doing well and we are not at war? Candidates who run against incumbents have to run on a “change” platform by nature. What kind of change can Dems get people excited about at this point?

Here's how Democrats win the 2020 Presidential election; an even shift of .77% gives the Democrats Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. An even shift of 1.19% adds Florida. Even an even shift that puts Florida among the states for the Democratic nominee does not require a majority of the vote going to the Democrat.

Even shifts are most likely to be approached when they are small -- and in very close states -- in a Presidential election.

I say that 100-DIS is my best and most reasonable ceiling for the Trump vote. That does not mean that the Democrat will win 54% of the popular vote; it means that Trump will get no more than 46% of the popular vote.


The difference between what the Democrat gets and 54% of the non-Trump vote will be in Third Parties. Although it is possible for a Democrat to get 54% of the popular vote, such is unlikely. More likely there will be dissident conservatives who choose to vote for someone other than Trump. That could be someone more right-wing on 'social issues'; that could be some plutocrat running a vanity campaign; that could be someone who wants a conventional Republican (let us say Jeb Bush) without the sexism, bad diplomacy, and tariffs.

I do not say watch the Democrats and see if they nominate some extremist that the Trump can pillory as another George McGovern, an allegedly dangerous radical offensive to mass sensibilities. That failed with Carter against Reagan, the Carter campaign doing everything possible to depict Reagan as the sort who would start World War III against the Soviet Union and replace welfare with starvation or peonage.

The Democrats can win with someone who reeks of probity, who stays clear of extremism, who promises to return to free trade, and of course who addresses the concerns of most Americans. Their ideal would be another Barack Obama, who looks really good in polling if not in President Trump's disparaging tweets.  Campaign like Obama, and you will win.

[GeorgiaModerate]

ARG, July 17-20, 1100 adults (change from last month)

Approve 37 (-3)
Disapprove 57 (+3)

This is Trump's worst showing in this poll since February.  Among registered voters, his approval is 37/58 this month, but I don't see June RV numbers for comparison.

[KingSweden]

AAAAAARRRRRRRRGGGGGGHHHHH

[twenty42]

ARG, July 17-20, 1100 adults (change from last month)

Approve 37 (-3)
Disapprove 57 (+3)

This is Trump's worst showing in this poll since February.  Among registered voters, his approval is 37/58 this month, but I don't see June RV numbers for comparison.

I thought ARG was trash. Or is that only when their polls are favorable to Trump?

[Rookie Yinzer]

ARG, July 17-20, 1100 adults (change from last month)

Approve 37 (-3)
Disapprove 57 (+3)

This is Trump's worst showing in this poll since February.  Among registered voters, his approval is 37/58 this month, but I don't see June RV numbers for comparison.

I thought ARG was trash. Or is that only when their polls are favorable to Trump?

You seemed triggered. All the poster did was post the poll and note how it compared to past polling. Calm down.

[twenty42]

ARG, July 17-20, 1100 adults (change from last month)

Approve 37 (-3)
Disapprove 57 (+3)

This is Trump's worst showing in this poll since February.  Among registered voters, his approval is 37/58 this month, but I don't see June RV numbers for comparison.

I thought ARG was trash. Or is that only when their polls are favorable to Trump?

You seemed triggered. All the poster did was post the poll and note how it compared to past polling. Calm down.

I’m calm. I’m just wondering why ARG is suddenly relevant.

[BudgieForce]

ARG, July 17-20, 1100 adults (change from last month)

Approve 37 (-3)
Disapprove 57 (+3)

This is Trump's worst showing in this poll since February.  Among registered voters, his approval is 37/58 this month, but I don't see June RV numbers for comparison.

I thought ARG was trash. Or is that only when their polls are favorable to Trump?

You seemed triggered. All the poster did was post the poll and note how it compared to past polling. Calm down.

I’m calm. I’m just wondering why ARG is suddenly relevant.

If you couldnt tell, we've had abit of a shortage of non-online polls as of late.

[pbrower2a]

ARG, July 17-20, 1100 adults (change from last month)

Approve 37 (-3)
Disapprove 57 (+3)

This is Trump's worst showing in this poll since February.  Among registered voters, his approval is 37/58 this month, but I don't see June RV numbers for comparison.

I thought ARG was trash. Or is that only when their polls are favorable to Trump?

The margin of error for most polls is 4%. 3% shifts are close, and may mean something.

Basically one throws out outliers on both sides and looks at the rest.  

Comparisons between polls by the same pollster are relevant so long as there is no change of methodology.
.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Just a comment: I try to post whatever new polls I run across, regardless of the pollster or who they favor, because they're all data points to throw in the mix.  This includes polls that favor Trump/R's, polls that don't, and everything in between.  I include all posters other than those known to be fakes, even those of dubious quality.  ARG is indeed one of the lesser quality pollsters; 538 gives them a C+.  But they're better than some others, such as SurveyMonkey (D-), which nobody objects to having posted.  Also, I sometimes add a comment when there's something interesting about a poll, such as a notable movement/trend or a medium- or long-term high or low -- regardless of who it favors.  Go back a few months and you can find several comments I made about Trump making a new high, 6-month high, etc., in a particular poll. 

My objective is to maximize the available information and share it with the forum; if you as a reader want to discount a particular pollster, that's certainly your prerogative.  But I have always posted polls this way (anyone who follows this thread should know this is true) and intend to continue doing so.

[pbrower2a]

Michigan, Emerson:

Gretchen Whitmer (D) and Bill Schuette (R) are overwhelming favorites in their August 7 primaries,  and Whitmer looks to win the gubernatorial election 43-36 with 9% for someone else and 12% undecided.

Debbie Stabenow (D, incumbent) is just short of the 50% threshold to hold her Senate seat, but she is ahead 47-29 of John James and 48-32 over Sandi Penssler. The big leads look definitive.

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https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-pr-mi-7.23.pdf

Comment: Republicans will lose at least two, and probably four House seats here. At this point, Michigan looks as if it is for Trump what Indiana was for Obama in 2008: a one-time fluke. The difference is that Obama solved a lot of problems in Indiana (recession, credit crunch, and high energy costs) so Hoosiers could safely go back to voting Republican. Trump looks like a huge disappointment in Michigan.

This poll is of registered voters saying that they are likely to vote in the midterm election. July 19-21.

[pbrower2a]

Vermont (VPR-Vermont PBS)

28% approve
61% disapprove

http://projects.vpr.net/vpr-vermont-pbs-poll

Vermont will be one of the worst two or three states for the President in 2020.

Michigan, Emerson:

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https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-pr-mi-7.23.pdf

55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 39
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval

55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

*With the explicit question of whether the President should or should not be re-elected, or 100-DIS if such is all that is available:


Re-elect/do not re-elect if known; 100-DIS otherwise

100-DIS

55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red (or 55% do-not-reelect or higher)
40% to 44% medium red (or 50 to 54% do-not-reelect or higher)
under 40% deep red (or 50% or less do-not-reelect if do-not re-elect if do-not-reelect is higher than reelect)
Ties for elect and re-elect are also in white.

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
FL 37-54
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. Polls from Alabama and New Jersey are exit polls from 2017 elections. 

[Badger]

Ah looks like Limo is back at it again

Yes, noted Republican poster on rrh, Andrew 1918, (aka his sock name limo"liberal") certainly is a hack for his party.

[Gass3268]

Trump not popular in the new PA-17:

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1021788577334738944

[Pyro]

Trump not popular in the new PA-17:

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1021788577334738944

Maybe they shouldn't have voted for him.

[Gass3268]

Quinnipiac:

58% Disapprove (51% Strongly) (+3)
38% Approve (28% Strongly) (-2)

Source