Trump approval ratings thread 1.3

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

That explains the PA-18 results. The Monmouth poll for the race also showed that support for the Democrats and the GOP in November was split 42/42. Trump is handing the working class back over to the Democrats.

[BudgieForce]

Pew National 4/25-5/1:

Approve - 39%(=)
Disapprove - 54%(=)


http://assets.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/2018/05/03134750/05-03-18-political-topline-for-release.pdf

No movement from their last poll.

Odd how much the generic ballot shifted.

[LimoLiberal]

Trump at a new 11-month high in 538 aggregate: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Approve - 41.4
Disapprove - 52.5


Just 5 months ago, it was 37-57.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Trump has lost a significant amount of support among union members since he took office, which doesn't bode well for him holding onto states such as Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania in 2020:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Trump is a disgraceful con artist who pledged that he had a heart on healthcare, would protect Social Security and Medicare and would be pro worker and anti wall street. He even said he would like to turn the Republican party into a workers party. He lied, and has governed like a 3rd Bush term.

[Matty]

Trump at 44.0 on rcp average

spread down to -8.6

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

It's total crisis mode for Dems at this point. They better hope the Stormy/Giuliani story sticks or the Korea talks derail.

[Matty]

BTW, I worded my question really poorly.

When I asked "what would a national map look like if he is at 44 nationally?".....I meant what would a map of his approval/disapproval by state look like, not how an election would look.

[BudgieForce]

Trump at 44.0 on rcp average

spread down to -8.6

It's certainly a bump, mostly driven by Monmouth and the tracking polls. Given how unstable Reuters and YouGov are and how linear Gallup tends to be, I dont expect it'll hold. But we'll definitely have to wait and see.

[Matty]

Trump at 44.0 on rcp average

spread down to -8.6

It's certainly a bump, mostly driven by Monmouth and the tracking polls. Given how unstable Reuters and YouGov are and how linear Gallup tends to be, I dont expect it'll hold. But we'll definitely have to wait and see.

ya, some of it is noise.

I still think it is ironic/remarkable that his approval rating, after a year of so much drama, so many stories, indictments, laws, investigations, gaffes, etc.....is nearly identical to where it was in march 2017

It shows either the media is not very powerful at swaying public opinion or people do not care.

[BudgieForce]

Trump at 44.0 on rcp average

spread down to -8.6

It's certainly a bump, mostly driven by Monmouth and the tracking polls. Given how unstable Reuters and YouGov are and how linear Gallup tends to be, I dont expect it'll hold. But we'll definitely have to wait and see.

ya, some of it is noise.

I still think it is ironic/remarkable that his approval rating, after a year of so much drama, so many stories, indictments, laws, investigations, gaffes, etc.....is nearly identical to where it was in march 2017

It shows either the media is not very powerful at swaying public opinion or people do not care.

A majority of Americans dont like him. If the media was powerless, then that wouldn't be the case.

[Tender Branson]

I think that North Korea might play a part in his recent rise, as well as the good economy.

Also: the Russia/Trump connection "thing" is losing steam and might be soon out people's minds.

How did Michelle Wolf say during the White House Dinner ?

"If Hillary was too incompetent to connect with Michigan voters, do you really expect Trump was smart enough to have colluded with the Russians ?"

Also, people are well aware of Trump being excentric, so the Stormy "scandal" doesn't matter in their minds either ...

[KingSweden]

Trump at 44.0 on rcp average

spread down to -8.6

It's certainly a bump, mostly driven by Monmouth and the tracking polls. Given how unstable Reuters and YouGov are and how linear Gallup tends to be, I dont expect it'll hold. But we'll definitely have to wait and see.

ya, some of it is noise.

I still think it is ironic/remarkable that his approval rating, after a year of so much drama, so many stories, indictments, laws, investigations, gaffes, etc.....is nearly identical to where it was in march 2017

It shows either the media is not very powerful at swaying public opinion or people do not care.

I imagine a lot of GOPers came home via tax reform, and there’s a small Korea bump. He’s been around 40-41 al year up until now (and 2018 - knock on wood - has been much quieter than 2017)

That said, I think opinions are more or less baked in at this point, and you really should use 538 rather than RCP.

[BudgieForce]

I think that North Korea might play a part in his recent rise, as well as the good economy.

Also: the Russia/Trump connection "thing" is losing steam and might be soon out people's minds.

How did Michelle Wolf say during the White House Dinner ?

"If Hillary was too incompetent to connect with Michigan voters, do you really expect Trump was smart enough to have colluded with the Russians ?"

Also, people are well aware of Trump being excentric, so the Stormy "scandal" doesn't matter in their minds either ...

Not even close.

And regarding Russia, as long as Mueller is still around there will always be the risk of the story coming back into the forefront.

[Cold War Liberal]

How did Michelle Wolf say during the White House Dinner ?

"If Hillary was too incompetent to connect with Michigan voters, do you really expect Trump was smart enough to have colluded with the Russians ?"

No, that's not even remotely close or the point of her joke. The quote was: "It's funny how the Trump campaign was in communication with Russia, but the Hillary campaign wasn't even in communication with Michigan."

[Matty]

I think that North Korea might play a part in his recent rise, as well as the good economy.

Also: the Russia/Trump connection "thing" is losing steam and might be soon out people's minds.

How did Michelle Wolf say during the White House Dinner ?

"If Hillary was too incompetent to connect with Michigan voters, do you really expect Trump was smart enough to have colluded with the Russians ?"

Also, people are well aware of Trump being excentric, so the Stormy "scandal" doesn't matter in their minds either ...

Not even close.

And regarding Russia, as long as Mueller is still around there will always be the risk of the story coming back into the forefront.

I am not trying to be elitist, but when I talk about the russia stuff in public with people, most of them appear just plain ignorant or dumb about all of its ins and outs.

My aunt, bless her heart, is an independent voter and doesn't even know who george papadoupoulos is. I imagine the average american (think the average person in line at dmv or walmart) is embarrassingly uninformed about the investigation.

[Reaganfan]

Remember too, Clinton's approvals rose during the Monica Lewinsky scandal. Nixon's even began to recover slightly in '73 during Watergate for a very brief time.

[Tender Branson]

How did Michelle Wolf say during the White House Dinner ?

"If Hillary was too incompetent to connect with Michigan voters, do you really expect Trump was smart enough to have colluded with the Russians ?"

No, that's not even remotely close or the point of her joke. The quote was: "It's funny how the Trump campaign was in communication with Russia, but the Hillary campaign wasn't even in communication with Michigan."

That's exactly what I wrote ... just with more & circumlocutory words.

[BudgieForce]

How did Michelle Wolf say during the White House Dinner ?

"If Hillary was too incompetent to connect with Michigan voters, do you really expect Trump was smart enough to have colluded with the Russians ?"

No, that's not even remotely close or the point of her joke. The quote was: "It's funny how the Trump campaign was in communication with Russia, but the Hillary campaign wasn't even in communication with Michigan."

That's exactly what I wrote ... just with more words.

That's not what you wrote. Your interpretation says Trump was too stupid to collude while the actual joke is going after Hillary's poor campaigning.

[KingSweden]

I think that North Korea might play a part in his recent rise, as well as the good economy.

Also: the Russia/Trump connection "thing" is losing steam and might be soon out people's minds.

How did Michelle Wolf say during the White House Dinner ?

"If Hillary was too incompetent to connect with Michigan voters, do you really expect Trump was smart enough to have colluded with the Russians ?"

Also, people are well aware of Trump being excentric, so the Stormy "scandal" doesn't matter in their minds either ...

Not even close.

And regarding Russia, as long as Mueller is still around there will always be the risk of the story coming back into the forefront.

I am not trying to be elitist, but when I talk about the russia stuff in public with people, most of them appear just plain ignorant or dumb about all of its ins and outs.

My aunt, bless her heart, is an independent voter and doesn't even know who george papadoupoulos is. I imagine the average american (think the average person in line at dmv or walmart) is embarrassingly uninformed about the investigation.

I don’t think that’s elitist at all. Atlas is not representative of the American public, lol. We’re the strange ones!

The truth is that there are a lot of moving parts, various threads and figures of varied importance in the case Mueller is working. I can barely keep track, and I follow it closely. The average voter has a vague sense that something is going on, but probably don’t know much about it.

[Tender Branson]

How did Michelle Wolf say during the White House Dinner ?

"If Hillary was too incompetent to connect with Michigan voters, do you really expect Trump was smart enough to have colluded with the Russians ?"

No, that's not even remotely close or the point of her joke. The quote was: "It's funny how the Trump campaign was in communication with Russia, but the Hillary campaign wasn't even in communication with Michigan."

That's exactly what I wrote ... just with more words.

That's not what you wrote. Your interpretation says Trump was too stupid to collude while the actual joke is going after Hillary's poor campaigning.

You can definitely interpret her joke as being sarcastic that if Hillary wasn't even able to connect with MI voters, then Trump was certainly too stupid to collude with the Russians.

[BudgieForce]

How did Michelle Wolf say during the White House Dinner ?

"If Hillary was too incompetent to connect with Michigan voters, do you really expect Trump was smart enough to have colluded with the Russians ?"

No, that's not even remotely close or the point of her joke. The quote was: "It's funny how the Trump campaign was in communication with Russia, but the Hillary campaign wasn't even in communication with Michigan."

That's exactly what I wrote ... just with more words.

That's not what you wrote. Your interpretation says Trump was too stupid to collude while the actual joke is going after Hillary's poor campaigning.

You can definitely interpret her joke as being sarcastic that if Hillary wasn't even able to connect with MI voters, then Trump was certainly too stupid to collude with the Russians.

That was not the intention of her joke. And her multiple jokes prior to that one going after Trump colluding with Russia backs that up.

[junior chįmp]

Trump at a new 11-month high in 538 aggregate: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Approve - 41.4
Disapprove - 52.5


Just 5 months ago, it was 37-57.

lol...you are celebrating a 41% approval rating. Obama lost 63 House seats with a 50% approval rating. Bill Clinton had a 48% approval rating in late October 1994 before being BTFO in the House.

There are 2 Democrats that hold the record for most state legislature seats lost during their presidency since Roosevelt: Obama with 968 seats and Clinton in second place with 524 seats. Despite Bill Clinton being oh so popular with a 70% approval rating and the largest peacetime economic expansion in history, the Dems were BTFO in the House, Senate, and the state legislatures (as well as governorship).

But you're celebrating a 41% approval rating

[Virginiá]

I am not trying to be elitist, but when I talk about the russia stuff in public with people, most of them appear just plain ignorant or dumb about all of its ins and outs.

My aunt, bless her heart, is an independent voter and doesn't even know who george papadoupoulos is. I imagine the average american (think the average person in line at dmv or walmart) is embarrassingly uninformed about the investigation.

I don’t think that’s elitist at all. Atlas is not representative of the American public, lol. We’re the strange ones!

The truth is that there are a lot of moving parts, various threads and figures of varied importance in the case Mueller is working. I can barely keep track, and I follow it closely. The average voter has a vague sense that something is going on, but probably don’t know much about it.

What marty said is probably why the public hasn't punished Trump (long-term) for the Mueller stuff. There is no clear narrative to it right now. Mueller is still working his way through the case, and we only have bits and pieces of a bigger story. It's not really enough to make sense to the average voter. You would think the fact that all these people close to Trump/his campaign getting indicted would reflect poorly on Trump, but until/unless there is some bigger story that can be summarized more easily for a the everyday joe, it might never amount to much for much of the electorate.

Trump getting slapped with "unindicted co-conspirator", recommended for impeachment or the fabled holy grail of the left, even getting indicted somehow while in office, that would also probably hurt Trump, so long as the basis for it is not too complex to understand.

[twenty42]

BTW, I worded my question really poorly.

When I asked "what would a national map look like if he is at 44 nationally?".....I meant what would a map of his approval/disapproval by state look like, not how an election would look.

Obviously depends on his opponent, but considering he got 46.1% of the PV with a 38.7% approval, I’d say there’s a good chance he’d win a majority of the PV at 44% approval.

Mapwise, I’d say it would be 2016 + NH + NV + MN. CO would be very close.

[GeorgiaModerate]

BTW, I worded my question really poorly.

When I asked "what would a national map look like if he is at 44 nationally?".....I meant what would a map of his approval/disapproval by state look like, not how an election would look.

Obviously depends on his opponent, but considering he got 46.1% of the PV with a 38.7% approval, I’d say there’s a good chance he’d win a majority of the PV at 44% approval.

Mapwise, I’d say it would be 2016 + NH + NV + MN. CO would be very close.

No, he had 38.7% favorability, not approval.  They aren't the same thing.  In 2016 Trump had no track record to run on, or that his opponents could run against.  Now he does have a track record, and it's one that has majority disapproval, and intense disapproval at that; in those polls that measure intensity, strong disapproval tends to far outweigh strong approval.

Also, in 2020 Trump probably wouldn't be running against an opponent as unpopular as Hillary Clinton was.  If Trump is at 44% approval against a reasonably popular Democrat, I would expect him to lose a close race, say 2016 minus WI, MI, PA, ME-2 and perhaps a couple of others.  If he's at 41.4% (the current 538 average) it won't be that close.