Trump approval ratings thread 1.3

[KingSweden]

BTW, I worded my question really poorly.

When I asked "what would a national map look like if he is at 44 nationally?".....I meant what would a map of his approval/disapproval by state look like, not how an election would look.

Obviously depends on his opponent, but considering he got 46.1% of the PV with a 38.7% approval, I’d say there’s a good chance he’d win a majority of the PV at 44% approval.

Mapwise, I’d say it would be 2016 + NH + NV + MN. CO would be very close.

Heh you still didn’t answer Marty’s question after it was rephrased

[henster]

RCP is very selective in which polls they put in their database, they largely do RV polls only, they chose the PEW 42/54 RV result vs the 39/54 adults one. Same with Monmouth it shows 45/48 but the pollster talks about the 41/50 number. Did they make such a distinction with Obama?

[KingSweden]

RCP is very selective in which polls they put in their database, they largely do RV polls only, they chose the PEW 42/54 RV result vs the 39/54 adults one. Same with Monmouth it shows 45/48 but the pollster talks about the 41/50 number. Did they make such a distinction with Obama?

538 allows you to do all polls, RV, and adults, which I like.

[bandg]

Reuters/Ipsos, National, 4/27-5/1

Adults
Approve - 48
Disapprove - 49

Registered Voters
Approve - 49
Disapprove - 49

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Reuters/Ipsos, National, 4/27-5/1

Adults
Approve - 48
Disapprove - 49

Registered Voters
Approve - 49
Disapprove - 49

Poor Reuters.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Reuters/Ipsos, National, 4/27-5/1

Adults
Approve - 48
Disapprove - 49

Registered Voters
Approve - 49
Disapprove - 49

Interesting commentary in the release:

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I suspect this has a lot to do with it being an outlier:

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That seems very Republican-heavy.

[BudgieForce]

The line graph on RCP is gonna have a huge drop off soon if polls keep this up.

[KingSweden]

Reuters/Ipsos, National, 4/27-5/1

Adults
Approve - 48
Disapprove - 49

Registered Voters
Approve - 49
Disapprove - 49

Interesting commentary in the release:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I suspect this has a lot to do with it being an outlier:

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That seems very Republican-heavy.

Good for them for still releasing it even though they themselves view it as an outlier and not trying to juice/reweight their sample.

And yeah I agree it’s an outlier. +5 in a few days is very unrealistic

[BudgieForce]

Funny enough, the congressional ballot is Dems +6. I think pollsters are having a rough patch right now trying to measure the Korea bump. Theres definitely something to be said about oversampling republicans.

[KingSweden]

Funny enough, the congressional ballot is Dems +6. I think pollsters are having a rough patch right now trying to measure the Korea bump. Theres definitely something to be said about oversampling republicans.

That’s a bit tighter than where they had it earlier this week, but certainly not where you’d expect it if the President was break-even.

[BudgieForce]

Funny enough, the congressional ballot is Dems +6. I think pollsters are having a rough patch right now trying to measure the Korea bump. Theres definitely something to be said about oversampling republicans.

That’s a bit tighter than where they had it earlier this week, but certainly not where you’d expect it if the President was break-even.

Yep, If Trump was actually at even approval ratings I'd expect the generic ballot to be close to even as well.

Edit: Heck, I'd expect republicans would be ahead in atleast a few polls.

[LimoLiberal]

Reuters/Ipsos, National, 4/27-5/1

Adults
Approve - 48
Disapprove - 49

Registered Voters
Approve - 49
Disapprove - 49

Wow. This has been one of Trump's worst polls these past few months...

[forgotten manatee]

Whatever it is, his approval rating is certainly too damn high. This is such an incompetent, corrupt, and chaotically run administration that has done almost nothing to deserve an approval rating anywhere above 8%. Seriously, what is the Republican Congress and "Republican" president working on these days, besides attempting to intimidate/subvert Mueller and lie their way out of a porn star payoff? This has to be one of the most unproductive administrations and Congresses in history, a damnation given that they control every branch of government. Trump is a disgusting racist fartbag who is lucky to have inherited a good economy. That is literally the only thing he has going for him. Should the economy go south, his approval ratings will likely fall to the well-deserved single digits.

[KingSweden]

Whatever it is, his approval rating is certainly too damn high. This is such an incompetent, corrupt, and chaotically run administration that has done almost nothing to deserve an approval rating anywhere above 8%. Seriously, what is the Republican Congress and "Republican" president working on these days, besides attempting to intimidate/subvert Mueller and lie their way out of a porn star payoff? This has to be one of the most unproductive administrations and Congresses in history, a damnation given that they control every branch of government. Trump is a disgusting racist fartbag who is lucky to have inherited a good economy. That is literally the only thing he has going for him. Should the economy go south, his approval ratings will likely fall to the well-deserved single digits.

Ok, but tell me how you really feel.

[Tender Branson]

POLITICO reports that Trump's rise in recent days has not just come from North Korea but also because of Kanye West's comments in favour of Trump and questioning the "slavish mindset" of Blacks ...

Support for Trump among Black men doubled after Kanye's comments and among Blacks in total it's also up significantly in the Reuters poll:

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/04/trump-kanye-african-american-poll-numbers-569166

https://www.rollingstone.com/music/news/donald-trump-thanks-kanye-west-for-boost-in-approval-rating-w519854

[Dr. Arch]

POLITICO reports that Trump's rise in recent days has not just come from North Korea but also because of Kanye West's comments in favour of Trump and questioning the "slavish mindset" of Blacks ...

Support for Trump among Black men doubled after Kanye's comments and among Blacks in total it's also up significantly in the Reuters poll:

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/04/trump-kanye-african-american-poll-numbers-569166

https://www.rollingstone.com/music/news/donald-trump-thanks-kanye-west-for-boost-in-approval-rating-w519854

April 1 is long gone.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

POLITICO reports that Trump's rise in recent days has not just come from North Korea but also because of Kanye West's comments in favour of Trump and questioning the "slavish mindset" of Blacks ...

Support for Trump among Black men doubled after Kanye's comments and among Blacks in total it's also up significantly in the Reuters poll:

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/04/trump-kanye-african-american-poll-numbers-569166

https://www.rollingstone.com/music/news/donald-trump-thanks-kanye-west-for-boost-in-approval-rating-w519854

Apparently Reuters is now the gold standard. Anyways, if you use that handy option that allows you look at his approval rating way back amongst african americans, you will see that it has spiked many times before, in fact, higher than it is now. The media sucks at playing this game. They’re creating a false narrative.

[Tender Branson]

Here is the daily chart of Blacks:



Notice how support remains largely the same (10-12% approval) until April 25, which was when Kanye announced that Trump is his "bro" and then created controversy with the "slave" comment.

Also, Trump's support among Whites (now about 55-40) and Indies (now about 50-50) is up significantly from a month ago (by about 10 points), which probably has more to do with the North Korea situation.

This is something to keep watching. Maybe other polls show the same uptick in the next days/weeks.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Like I have said, Trump’s approval rating amongst blacks in Reuters’s tracking has been higher before. Don’t get your hopes up. Other pollsters like Pew are showing no change.

[Annatar]

It seems Trump has finally broken out of the 40% +/- 3% range and may be heading for a new equilibrium at around 42% among all adults and around 44% with registered voters, I wonder what has changed in the last week or so to prompt this shift up, North Korea looks to be the most likely explanation, in any case, if Trump's approval ratings are at 45% or higher going into November, the GOP stands a good chance of retaining both chamber's of Congress. Such an outcome would likely cause a deep crisis within Democratic ranks and perhaps also the final collapse of the Never Trump brigade.

[BudgieForce]

It seems Trump has finally broken out of the 40% +/- 3% range and may be heading for a new equilibrium at around 42% among all adults and around 44% with registered voters, I wonder what has changed in the last week or so to prompt this shift up, North Korea looks to be the most likely explanation, in any case, if Trump's approval ratings are at 45% or higher going into November, the GOP stands a good chance of retaining both chamber's of Congress. Such an outcome would likely cause a deep crisis within Democratic ranks and perhaps also the final collapse of the Never Trump brigade.

Why dont we wait before we start making claims about a "new equilibrium".

[forgotten manatee]

Whatever it is, his approval rating is certainly too damn high. This is such an incompetent, corrupt, and chaotically run administration that has done almost nothing to deserve an approval rating anywhere above 8%. Seriously, what is the Republican Congress and "Republican" president working on these days, besides attempting to intimidate/subvert Mueller and lie their way out of a porn star payoff? This has to be one of the most unproductive administrations and Congresses in history, a damnation given that they control every branch of government. Trump is a disgusting racist fartbag who is lucky to have inherited a good economy. That is literally the only thing he has going for him. Should the economy go south, his approval ratings will likely fall to the well-deserved single digits.

Ok, but tell me how you really feel.

I have nothing to say in response. I feel nothing but complete abhorrence for Trump, his cabal in the White House, and all his enablers. But if he's going to essentially settle in for a mediocre 45% approval rating and continued Congressional majorities, I'll probably give up on following or being interested in politics. For me, its not the bad faith, corruption, and slow erosion of our norms, values, and institutions that has me so upset -- it is the absolute lack of accountability and consequences. I think in the long run, we're all going to pay dearly for the slow-motion undermining of the rule of law, the gutting of diplomacy, and the warping of the American dream.

[LimoLiberal]

Trump now at -9.9 in disapproval in the 538 average. Surge/improvement shows no signs of abating with Reuters/Ipsos giving all time best numbers for Trump (48-49). https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

[Person Man]

It seems Trump has finally broken out of the 40% +/- 3% range and may be heading for a new equilibrium at around 42% among all adults and around 44% with registered voters, I wonder what has changed in the last week or so to prompt this shift up, North Korea looks to be the most likely explanation, in any case, if Trump's approval ratings are at 45% or higher going into November, the GOP stands a good chance of retaining both chamber's of Congress. Such an outcome would likely cause a deep crisis within Democratic ranks and perhaps also the final collapse of the Never Trump brigade.

Why dont we wait before we start making claims about a "new equilibrium".

I definitely think unless the Democrats take back at least one house, it will at least be a somewhat substantial challenge finding a path forward for them.

[Person Man]

Whatever it is, his approval rating is certainly too damn high. This is such an incompetent, corrupt, and chaotically run administration that has done almost nothing to deserve an approval rating anywhere above 8%. Seriously, what is the Republican Congress and "Republican" president working on these days, besides attempting to intimidate/subvert Mueller and lie their way out of a porn star payoff? This has to be one of the most unproductive administrations and Congresses in history, a damnation given that they control every branch of government. Trump is a disgusting racist fartbag who is lucky to have inherited a good economy. That is literally the only thing he has going for him. Should the economy go south, his approval ratings will likely fall to the well-deserved single digits.

Ok, but tell me how you really feel.

I have nothing to say in response. I feel nothing but complete abhorrence for Trump, his cabal in the White House, and all his enablers. But if he's going to essentially settle in for a mediocre 45% approval rating and continued Congressional majorities, I'll probably give up on following or being interested in politics. For me, its not the bad faith, corruption, and slow erosion of our norms, values, and institutions that has me so upset -- it is the absolute lack of accountability and consequences. I think in the long run, we're all going to pay dearly for the slow-motion undermining of the rule of law, the gutting of diplomacy, and the warping of the American dream.

I can see three major changes in society by 2030ish starting around now caused by this :

- Federal, State, and local law enforcement will just seem like other businesses or groups(like the Boy Scouts) to a large part of society.
- There may not be anymore reasonably contested elections at the federal level.
- Progressives will wall themselves from the rest of society and have their own insular institutions like Evangelical Fundamentalists did between 1932 and 1980.
-