Trump approval ratings thread 1.3

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

SurveyUSA: Trump is underwater in North Carolina; 50% disapprove, 43% approve, 7% undecided.

How dare you interrupt this thread with an actual poll?

[Matty]

If trump is truly at 43.5-44% approval nationally, what would a national map look like?

[Reaganfan]

Serious question here.

Is it possible, that Trump does so much better in rural/suburban areas, that some polls, not all but some, can oversample the urban vote?

In other words, if I did a poll of 100 people in Ohio, but 75 out of 100 were in Cuyahoga County, you would get a dramatically less-favorable result for Trump than if I evenly polled throughout all the counties in the state.

Is that possibly a factor? I get the impression his approval rating is always slightly higher than the polls show. He polls very, very strangely.

[Inmate Trump]

Serious question here.

Is it possible, that Trump does so much better in rural/suburban areas, that some polls, not all but some, can oversample the urban vote?

In other words, if I did a poll of 100 people in Ohio, but 75 out of 100 were in Cuyahoga County, you would get a dramatically less-favorable result for Trump than if I evenly polled throughout all the counties in the state.

Is that possibly a factor? I get the impression his approval rating is always slightly higher than the polls show. He polls very, very strangely.

I'm quite sure most or all pollsters don't just target specific counties or voters to get them a skewed result.  This is their profession, after all, and I highly doubt they're going to willingly suck that bad at their jobs.

[Brittain33]

Serious question here.

Is it possible, that Trump does so much better in rural/suburban areas, that some polls, not all but some, can oversample the urban vote?

In other words, if I did a poll of 100 people in Ohio, but 75 out of 100 were in Cuyahoga County, you would get a dramatically less-favorable result for Trump than if I evenly polled throughout all the counties in the state.

Is that possibly a factor? I get the impression his approval rating is always slightly higher than the polls show. He polls very, very strangely.

The thrashing Republican candidates have taken in the special elections for Congress and in legislative elections in Va where suburbs flip from Republican to Democratic and turnout in rural areas craters provides evidence that Trump is doing badly even in places you might hope he was doing well.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Serious question here.

Is it possible, that Trump does so much better in rural/suburban areas, that some polls, not all but some, can oversample the urban vote?

In other words, if I did a poll of 100 people in Ohio, but 75 out of 100 were in Cuyahoga County, you would get a dramatically less-favorable result for Trump than if I evenly polled throughout all the counties in the state.

Is that possibly a factor? I get the impression his approval rating is always slightly higher than the polls show. He polls very, very strangely.

Given special election results, which have been the worst for the republican party since 1974, I think Trump's approvals are pretty accurate lol

Even where i live in rural Georgia, people aren't too big on him. Third party and Clinton voters almost universally dislike him (53% of voters) and a decent amount of Trump voters only voted for him bc of Clinton.

[cvparty]

If trump is truly at 43.5-44% approval nationally, what would a national map look like?

prob would be a democrat win but close-ish. like 2016 EC numbers but reversed. MI+WI+PA+(possibly)AZ+FL

[KingSweden]

If trump is truly at 43.5-44% approval nationally, what would a national map look like?

prob would be a democrat win but close-ish. like 2016 EC numbers but reversed. MI+WI+PA+(possibly)AZ+FL

I think this would be my prediction too, Marty.

[Person Man]

If trump is truly at 43.5-44% approval nationally, what would a national map look like?

prob would be a democrat win but close-ish. like 2016 EC numbers but reversed. MI+WI+PA+(possibly)AZ+FL

I think this would be my prediction too, Marty.

And maybe if it was in the high 30s, maybe NC and GA would flip, too... or maybe Ohio and Iowa if the tariffs are really that bad. In the ultimate worst case scenario, he loses Texas, too. If he gets and stays polarizing rather than unpopular, he probably switches out Michigan and/or Pennsylvania or New Hampshire and Minnesota. It would be like 2004.  Maybe his best case scenario is 2016 + MN + NV + NH. That would be like a reverse 2012.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Why aren't more of the Red Avatars here worried about Korean peace being detrimental to Dem chances to taking over the House? I'd honestly rather have a Dem Congressional majority than for the DPRK and the ROK to get along.

[BudgieForce]

Why aren't more of the Red Avatars here worried about Korean peace being detrimental to Dem chances to taking over the House? I'd honestly rather have a Dem Congressional majority than for the DPRK and the ROK to get along.

Because its May.

[Sorenroy]

http://news.gallup.com/poll/233135/trump-fifth-quarter-job-approval-historically-low.aspx?utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_content=morelink&utm_campaign=syndication

Fifth Quarter Numbers (Change from Fourth Quarter):
39.1% (+2.3%)
Amongst Republicans: 86% (+5%)
Amongst Independents: 33% (±0%)
Amongst Democrats: 8% (+1%)

The whole piece is a good read with lots of incite, especially when it comes to how Trump is comparing to his predecessors, but I've tried to pull out the most interesting parts for those of you that don't have the time.

 - "Trump's fifth-quarter approval rating is based on an average of the 13 weekly Gallup approval ratings collected from late January through late April." [A combined sample of 19,500 adults.]

 - "The roughly 22-point gap in Trump's and his predecessors' fifth-quarter averages is among the smallest to date."

 - "Nearly all of the movement in Trump's approval the last three quarters has been due to shifts among Republicans -- a decline followed by a rebound." [Second highest: one point below Q1 (87%).]

 - "All presidents except Richard Nixon saw declines in their job approval during their sixth quarters, with the average decline being four points." [This means that if Trump is just able to hold stable he will trend towards the average of his predecessors.]

[KingSweden]

Why aren't more of the Red Avatars here worried about Korean peace being detrimental to Dem chances to taking over the House? I'd honestly rather have a Dem Congressional majority than for the DPRK and the ROK to get along.

Because its May.

Also, because Seoul being a smoking crater seems like an awful price to pay for Dems flipping 40 seats rather than 30

[BudgieForce]

Why aren't more of the Red Avatars here worried about Korean peace being detrimental to Dem chances to taking over the House? I'd honestly rather have a Dem Congressional majority than for the DPRK and the ROK to get along.

Because its May.

Also, because Seoul being a smoking crater seems like an awful price to pay for Dems flipping 40 seats rather than 30

That too. Especially that.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Why aren't more of the Red Avatars here worried about Korean peace being detrimental to Dem chances to taking over the House? I'd honestly rather have a Dem Congressional majority than for the DPRK and the ROK to get along.

Because its May.

Also, because Seoul being a smoking crater seems like an awful price to pay for Dems flipping 40 seats rather than 30

Yeah jesus christ. Hofoid is insane.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

So I guess now we're fully prepared to give Trump full credit for reunifying Korea, which he has nothing to do with.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Why aren't more of the Red Avatars here worried about Korean peace being detrimental to Dem chances to taking over the House? I'd honestly rather have a Dem Congressional majority than for the DPRK and the ROK to get along.

Because its May.

And because the North has had these temporary thaws before.  It's nice that the two Koreas are talking, but even at full speed on the diplomatic front with no double dealing by Kim, it's unlikely there will be an agreement in place before the midterms.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Some interesting numbers from Morning Consult.  Trump approval by district PVI range:

Safe D (PVI > D+10): 29/67 (strongly 13/54)
Lean D (D+5 to D+10): 35/61 (strongly 15/47)
Tossup (R+5 to D+5): 41/55 (strongly 19/42)
Lean R (R+5 to R+10): 46/50 (strongly 22/37)
Safe R (> R+10): 53/42 (strongly 26/30)

[KingSweden]

Some interesting numbers from Morning Consult.  Trump approval by district PVI range:

Safe D (PVI > D+10): 29/67 (strongly 13/54)
Lean D (D+5 to D+10): 35/61 (strongly 15/47)
Tossup (R+5 to D+5): 41/55 (strongly 19/42)
Lean R (R+5 to R+10): 46/50 (strongly 22/37)
Safe R (> R+10): 53/42 (strongly 26/30)

Nice. I like that they broke it out this way, even if the source is, uh, questionable

[Reaganfan]

So I guess now we're fully prepared to give Trump full credit for reunifying Korea, which he has nothing to do with.

Oh please. Donald Trump is the most powerful man in the world, he publicly says he will basically wipe North Korea off the map, and he has nothing to do with it? Come on, dude.

[KingSweden]

So I guess now we're fully prepared to give Trump full credit for reunifying Korea, which he has nothing to do with.

Oh please. Donald Trump is the most powerful man in the world, he publicly says he will basically wipe North Korea off the map, and he has nothing to do with it? Come on, dude.

I personally would say his public encouragement and private support of Moon Jae-in and the CIA
Pursuing this path are more to his credit than mean tweets, but your focus on his braying tweets is telling

[Stranger in a strange land]

The "I choose partisanship over accomplishment." is an unfortunate symptom of the modern American political system.  Even if the accomplishment is peace between nations.  If North Korea and South Korea fully re-unify before the 2018 electionsand the people of the North get to experience the freedoms of the South and divided families re-unite; then I'm not going to cry about Democrats not winning the House due to that if Republicans get some huge bump for it.

People in this thread understand that that's literally impossible, right? At best we might get a peace treaty to formally end the Korean War, but even that could be derailed by any number of things, chief among them Dear Leader's Twitter.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump has lost a significant amount of support among union members since he took office, which doesn't bode well for him holding onto states such as Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania in 2020:

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[KingSweden]

The "I choose partisanship over accomplishment." is an unfortunate symptom of the modern American political system.  Even if the accomplishment is peace between nations.  If North Korea and South Korea fully re-unify before the 2018 electionsand the people of the North get to experience the freedoms of the South and divided families re-unite; then I'm not going to cry about Democrats not winning the House due to that if Republicans get some huge bump for it.

People in this thread understand that that's literally impossible, right? At best we might get a peace treaty to formally end the Korean War, but even that could be derailed by any number of things, chief among them Dear Leader's Twitter.

Neither Korea actually wants to reunify.

Trump has lost a significant amount of support among union members since he took office, which doesn't bode well for him holding onto states such as Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania in 2020:

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Huh fancy that

[LimoLiberal]

Rasmussen

Approve - 51 (+1)
Disapprove - 49 (nc)