Trump approval ratings thread 1.3

[GeorgiaModerate]

Last weeks we saw Trump's numbers fall and GCB numbers improve for Republicans.
Now we see Trump's numbers improve and GCB getting worse for Republicans.

I’m still more or less convinced this is all noise and opinions of Trump are more or less baked into the cake at this point

I think the way that Trump approval and GCB have been cycling in opposite directions supports it being noise.  If there were a real public opinion shift, it would be more likely for them to both move toward one side or the other.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Last weeks we saw Trump's numbers fall and GCB numbers improve for Republicans.
Now we see Trump's numbers improve and GCB getting worse for Republicans.

I’m still more or less convinced this is all noise and opinions of Trump are more or less baked into the cake at this point

Oh, I totally agree. I just find it funny.

[KingSweden]

Last weeks we saw Trump's numbers fall and GCB numbers improve for Republicans.
Now we see Trump's numbers improve and GCB getting worse for Republicans.

I’m still more or less convinced this is all noise and opinions of Trump are more or less baked into the cake at this point

I think the way that Trump approval and GCB have been cycling in opposite directions supports it being noise.  If there were a real public opinion shift, it would be more likely for them to both move toward one side or the other.

Right. That’s not to say that him not sticking his foot in his mouth for a week and good news in Korea isn’t helping, but I’m not seeing it as a broad based shift. He’s still in range.

[Pericles]

Monmouth approval among registered voters:

Approve - 45
Disapprove - 48

Monmouth is a live-caller poll.

Live caller polls shat the bed in Alabama almost as much as you did.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Monmouth approval among registered voters:

Approve - 45
Disapprove - 48

Monmouth is a live-caller poll.

-26% approval rating amongst 18-34 year olds

[Matty]

He’s up to 43.3 in rcp (and less than double digit upside down for first time in awhile)

What is causing this

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

He’s up to 43.3 in rcp (and less than double digit upside down for first time in awhile)

What is causing this

I'm guessing because of North Korea, and because there hasn't been any big news on the Mueller front.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters, April 26-30, 2364 adults

Approve 43 (+4)
Disapprove 53 (-3)

Third poll in a row from a good pollster with a significant bump for Trump.  I'm willing to call that a trend.

[LimoLiberal]

Trump is at his highest point in the 538 aggregator since May 12th, 2017. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

As always, he's probably going to do something stupid, or Mueller will drop something that will reverse that trend.

[LimoLiberal]

I think it's clear that the North Korea news is driving this change, and I agree with others that it doesn't change the fact that he is still unpopular and a drag on his party's prospects in November. But my question is - what's going to bring him back down like many posters are expecting to happen? North Korea peace deal will probably continue to progress. Economy will keep humming along. Mueller's investigation seems like less and less of a threat every day, though some may disagree on that. Administration scandals don't seem to affect Trump's public perception as well - he received higher marks in Monmouth for "draining the swamp" in their most recent poll compared to March even as the Pruitt and Ronny Jackson scandals broke! This will be slandered as concern-trolling by some, but I don't see another trajectory for him but up - probably not too far up, as too many strongly disapprove/detest him. But I think he could get to the low-mid 40s (44-50) pretty easily.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I think it's clear that the North Korea news is driving this change, and I agree with others that it doesn't change the fact that he is still unpopular and a drag on his party's prospects in November. But my question is - what's going to bring him back down like many posters are expecting to happen? North Korea peace deal will probably continue to progress. Economy will keep humming along. Mueller's investigation seems like less and less of a threat every day, though some may disagree on that. Administration scandals don't seem to affect Trump's public perception as well - he received higher marks in Monmouth for "draining the swamp" in their most recent poll compared to March even as the Pruitt and Ronny Jackson scandals broke! This will be slandered as concern-trolling by some, but I don't see another trajectory for him but up - probably not too far up, as too many strongly disapprove/detest him. But I think he could get to the low-mid 40s (44-50) pretty easily.

You say this every time Trump's ratings improve.

[BudgieForce]

The North Korea bump is real. Lets see if it lasts longer then Obama's Bin Laden bump.

[KingSweden]

Something to consider about Korea - really what we have is an agreement to talk about having another, future agreement, the contents of which are unclear. That’s not something that happens tomorrow, or next week, possibly not even next year (and that’s before the caveats about DPRK’s past history of bad behavior).

Of course, better that they’re talking as opposed to the rhetoric of last year, and Trump, believe it or not, deserves some credit cooling his jets and letting the Koreans have space to begin a dialogue. I think this may be somewhat tied to NK, as it’s consistent enough across pollsters on the heels of Panmunjom that I think it’s a slight bump, but it’ll be a long time before even a *framework* is agreed upon, let alone the kinds of multilateral conferences that hash out real agreement. So this will fade, as all things do, and Trump will stay within his 39-41 baseline that he has more most of his Presidency.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Don't forget that the Stormy Daniels/Karen McDougal stories also receded from the media.
That must account for something too.

[Matty]

I don’t think stormy stuff had much of an effect

Didn’t some polls indicate less than 30% of Americans even care about that?

[BudgieForce]

I don’t think stormy stuff had much of an effect

Didn’t some polls indicate less than 30% of Americans even care about that?

Yeah, I dont think Trump's average reacted at all to the Stormy Daniel's coverage.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Let's not forget that this is Monmouth and Rasmussen. I have no doubt that Trump is getting a bump from North Korea, but the two are almost definitely going to inflate his numbers, as they always do.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Let's not forget that this is Monmouth and Rasmussen. I have no doubt that Trump is getting a bump from North Korea, but the two are almost definitely going to inflate his numbers, as they always do.

I wasn't counting Rasmussen as one of the three good pollsters; my standards are higher than that.   They were:

Gallup: -19 to -11 (net +8)
Monmouth: -15 to -9 (net +6)
Ipsos: -17 to -10 (net +7)

I agree that Korea is probably fueling a lot of this.  Presidents tend to get credit/blame for things that happen on their watch, whether or not they're directly responsible for them. 

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

What bump did Obama get for getting bin Laden?

[GeorgiaModerate]

What bump did Obama get for getting bin Laden?

Obama had a good bump that lasted about a month.  Bin Laden was killed on May 2, 2011.  Obama approvals in Gallup:

4/6: 45/47
4/11: 46/46
4/16: 44/47
4/21: 44/47
4/26: 43/48
5/1: 46/45
---
5/6: 51/41
5/11: 51/42
5/15: 46/44
5/20: 49/43
5/25: 52/42
5/31: 49/42
---
6/4: 47/45
6/9: 45/46
6/14: 47/47

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

What bump did Obama get for getting bin Laden?

Obama had a good bump that lasted about a month.  Bin Laden was killed on May 2, 2011.  Obama approvals in Gallup:

4/6: 45/47
4/11: 46/46
4/16: 44/47
4/21: 44/47
4/26: 43/48
5/1: 46/45
---
5/6: 51/41
5/11: 51/42
5/15: 46/44
5/20: 49/43
5/25: 52/42
5/31: 49/42
---
6/4: 47/45
6/9: 45/46
6/14: 47/47

I'm gonna guess maybe around a 46% on RCP until early June when Mueller or Cohen drop a bomb shell.

[bandg]

When's the last time Trump said/tweeted something controversial in public that actually drove the news cycle over an extended period? The last one that I can think of was the s***hole comment, but that was actually made behind closed doors. Last year, there was one every month it seemed, Charlottesville, SOB, wiretapp, bleeding from face-lift, etc. Dare I say, Trump is becoming more polished as a politician, and using his "inside voice" as opposed to blurting out whatever he may be thinking?

This, combined with Trump showing some statesmanlike qualities with North Korea, IMO are causing people to become more comfortable with the idea of Trump as president. In other words, the dreaded "normalization" is in full swing.

[junior chįmp]

NC SurveyUSA Poll - 04/27-04/30: Trump 43% Approve /50% Disapprove

[BudgieForce]

When's the last time Trump said/tweeted something controversial in public that actually drove the news cycle over an extended period? The last one that I can think of was the s***hole comment, but that was actually made behind closed doors. Last year, there was one every month it seemed, Charlottesville, SOB, wiretapp, bleeding from face-lift, etc. Dare I say, Trump is becoming more polished as a politician, and using his "inside voice" as opposed to blurting out whatever he may be thinking?

This, combined with Trump showing some statesmanlike qualities with North Korea, IMO are causing people to become more comfortable with the idea of Trump as president. In other words, the dreaded "normalization" is in full swing.

The people who hate him cant muster up anymore outrage and the people who love him have tuned every scandal out. I guess you could call that "normalization". At the end of the day though, nobody really knows if Trump's scandals are really hurting him. We're only going to find out on election day. All we can do is offer up hot takes on poll fluctuations.