Trump approval ratings thread 1.3

[BudgieForce]

To be blunt, I get tired of watching his approval ratings go up slightly in one direction or the other and the massive amount of hot takes that follow.

[Dr. Arch]

To be blunt, I get tired of watching his approval ratings go up slightly in one direction or the other and the massive amount of hot takes that follow.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/983775108132167680

I think Democrats/Liberals are in a bubble about Trump. It seems like that he's getting more unpopular every day with more scandals and more chips falling.

In reality, he's reached his highest point since very early 2017 in two recent polls (Gallup and Quinnipiac).

No, that does not mean he's popular. No, that does not mean the blue wave is over. No, that does not mean he will be president for life.

But he is reaching his best point in many many months currently. Even in the face of seemingly endless scandals. And I see very few democratic partisans acknowledging that and entertaining why.

It seems he's at 40% give or take a few in either direction. I do have a theory though it seems Trump's approval takes its hit into the 30's whenever there is an election. For example his lowest point was in December after Doug Jones won in Alabama and recently you notice his approval went down during Lamb's run. I think we are seeing his numbers go up because without an election left leaning independents are disengaged  

[KingSweden]

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/983775108132167680

I think Democrats/Liberals are in a bubble about Trump. It seems like that he's getting more unpopular every day with more scandals and more chips falling.

In reality, he's reached his highest point since very early 2017 in two recent polls (Gallup and Quinnipiac).

No, that does not mean he's popular. No, that does not mean the blue wave is over. No, that does not mean he will be president for life.

But he is reaching his best point in many many months currently. Even in the face of seemingly endless scandals. And I see very few democratic partisans acknowledging that and entertaining why.

It seems he's at 40% give or take a few in either direction. I do have a theory though it seems Trump's approval takes its hit into the 30's whenever there is an election. For example his lowest point was in December after Doug Jones won in Alabama and recently you notice his approval went down during Lamb's run. I think we are seeing his numbers go up because without an election left leaning independents are disengaged  

Hmm this is actually an interesting theory

[GeorgiaModerate]

To be blunt, I get tired of watching his approval ratings go up slightly in one direction or the other and the massive amount of hot takes that follow.

You guys were expecting something else from Atlas?

[junior chįmp]

Hes on an upswing, and soon enough he'll be back on a downswing. As Ive noted multiple times, he is never very far from his average. About 40% of the country approves of him and about 54% of the country disproves of him. None of these "best since early 2017" polls from Gallup and Quinnipiac dispute that. His numbers dont actually change anymore, just response rates.

Actually, no.

It shouldn't be unexpected for Trump's approval rating to go up. Even Jimmy Carter had a 60% approval rating in January 1980 before he was BTFO in November

[bandg]

I think Democrats/Liberals are in a bubble about Trump. It seems like that he's getting more unpopular every day with more scandals and more chips falling.

The reality that only a small minority (20% is probably generous) of the population religiously follows these "scandals", and the vast majority of those are hardcore partisans on both sides. For the rest, all of this is just background noise which may be somewhat entertaining but doesn't affect them personally at all.

This is the reason why the ACA repeal effort, which actually affects people's lives, was the only thing that sustainably lowered Trump's approval, and why it rebounded when the threat subsided.

[King Lear]

Latest Rassmusen Survey:
Approval: 48%
Disapproval: 51%
Trumps approval rating is still really solid, and if these numbers continue, I don’t see how Democrats can flip the House and save their vulnerable Senate seats.

[LimoLiberal]

Do I even want to know why Lear has a picture of Assad as his signature?

[Crumpets]

Do I even want to know why Lear has a picture of Assad as his signature?

IIRC, something to the effect of "he's a family man, doctor, and secular leader who won a free and fair democratic election with over 90% of the vote"

[KingSweden]

Do I even want to know why Lear has a picture of Assad as his signature?

No.

[pbrower2a]

To be blunt, I get tired of watching his approval ratings go up slightly in one direction or the other and the massive amount of hot takes that follow.

We need always remember these three words to describe any move less than 4%:

margin of error

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I think Democrats/Liberals are in a bubble about Trump. It seems like that he's getting more unpopular every day with more scandals and more chips falling.

He's still unpopular. I don't know how many people here routinely blow off these polls as fake or whatever, which would be that bubble syndrome you're speaking of. I certainly don't really doubt these. I do have questions of why these people seem to have less issues with him, but I'm not sure if there are answers.

I think - just my personal suspicion, I do not have the data I would need to back this up - it's a combination of two (well, really three) things:

A) He hasn't made an epic mistake with perceived consequences for the entire public, and nothing has exploded with him in charge.

Oh, yes, he's done a lot of exceedingly stupid stuff, and been dogged by scandals. (More on that below.) But he's barely done anything on the national or international scale. Sure, posters here, and anyone who's politically invested and active, can point to this or that horrible thing his administration has done. But he hasn't started any (new) wars (yet), the economy hasn't tanked (yet), his trade war hasn't left the runway (yet), he flubbed Maria but hardly anyone cares about Puerto Rico (even if they should), and his biggest foreign crisis with North Korea is working out okay for now.

To go back to an analogy I like - yeah, the bus driver is a scary crazy drunk man with a filthy mouth, but he hasn't crashed it (yet).

B) Trump has created a very low set of baseline expectations for himself, but hasn't really fallen much below it.

Sure, he's grossly unfit for office, a total scumbag, corrupt, stupid, etc. But that was all true before he was elected.Under FBI investigation? Yep, but they haven't tied anything directly to him yet. Says stupid things about mass shootings? Yep, just like he called for the murder of his political opponents and riots from his supporters. Paid off a porn star after an immoral fling? Yep, just like he paid off his wives, and that's actually slightly better behavior than expected after the Access Hollywood tape. Administration is a revolving door of scumbags and sellouts getting backstabbed? Yep, so was his campaign. And on and on and on.

To touch on the bus driver analogy again, yes, he's a terrible driver. But he hasn't gotten any worse. Which leads us to...

C) Trump's behavior is becoming normal.

People, from reporters and news anchors, to political junkies like most of us, to the men and women "on the street" are growing numb to the endless parade of horror and disgrace that is the Trump Administration. There's only so much people can take before they throw up their hands (or just throw up) and start to tune out. There's only so much assault on the senses and sensibility that one can take before loosing sensitivity. The natural tendency of human beings is to become accustomed to their surroundings, even if those surroundings are a creeping vile fascism disguised as a disgusting reality tv show starring a mendacious, malevolent orange muppet.

Or, to fall back to the bus, people are inclined to believe that because the drunk maniac hasn't crashed the bus yet, he won't crash it ever. Humans are bad at calculating long term probability.

Trump's polling is likely to remain roughly where it is, until his public perception receives some new shock to shift people's awareness. Either some novel deplorable behavior from him (a pretty high bar by now), new information (clear evidence of a crime from Mueller), or a percieved change in their own circumstances (war, economic crash, disaster of some sort).

[pbrower2a]

Excellent! Polls are statistical measures, and as such they measure a reality about which we draw our own conclusions. They reflect the people of America  even more than they reflect the desirability of Donald Trump as President. But they are statistics and they fit rigid models that few of us can fraw all the right conclusions and only the right conclusions.
 

I think Democrats/Liberals are in a bubble about Trump. It seems like that he's getting more unpopular every day with more scandals and more chips falling.

He's still unpopular. I don't know how many people here routinely blow off these polls as fake or whatever, which would be that bubble syndrome you're speaking of. I certainly don't really doubt these. I do have questions of why these people seem to have less issues with him, but I'm not sure if there are answers.

I think - just my personal suspicion, I do not have the data I would need to back this up - it's a combination of two (well, really three) things:

A) He hasn't made an epic mistake with perceived consequences for the entire public, and nothing has exploded with him in charge.

Oh, yes, he's done a lot of exceedingly stupid stuff, and been dogged by scandals. (More on that below.) But he's barely done anything on the national or international scale. Sure, posters here, and anyone who's politically invested and active, can point to this or that horrible thing his administration has done. But he hasn't started any (new) wars (yet), the economy hasn't tanked (yet), his trade war hasn't left the runway (yet), he flubbed Maria but hardly anyone cares about Puerto Rico (even if they should), and his biggest foreign crisis with North Korea is working out okay for now.

To go back to an analogy I like - yeah, the bus driver is a scary crazy drunk man with a filthy mouth, but he hasn't crashed it (yet).

Even with the huge difference between Obama and Trump, Obama is closer to the mainstream of the historical experience of America than is Donald Trump. Obama is closer to Ronald Reagan than is Donald Trump.

Liberals need to recognize what is right with America, and that is those aspects of American life that Donald Trump cannot change. Our economy is productive enough that we are not on the margin of famine. We have a strong agricultural productivity as a foundation of all other economic activity. Yes, more money nay be flowing through real estate, finance, manufacturing, and services, but knock out agriculture and the rest crashes. If I had to choose between the oil of Saudi Arabia and American agriculture, I would prefer to have American agriculture. Americans still have faith in consumerism, and people who have given up on it are rare enough to be seen as eccentric or irrelevant. We still have a collective Wanderlust that most of us can satisfy only with an automobile.  We still have a welfare system that keeps the disabled and helpless from  starvation. A record number and percentage of Americans have college degrees -- sure, many of those are from second-rate or third-rate colleges, but even those degrees have some value. Trump cannot change that.

And then we have our institutions. The military and law enforcement, conservative as they are, are not going to enforce the whim of the day of this President. The independent judiciary keeps the legal process from becoming a means of lynching those who disagree with the President.  People with agendas different from his believe rightly that they can wait him out. People are still able to protest his cruel, corrupt, and even insane proposals. Trump may be a fascist pig (sorry for insulting the source of the pork loin that I enjoyed last night!), but much of what he has said has violated the conscience and consciousness of millions of Americans. People who thought this President a sick joke in November 2016 mostly still do (and I believe that they have firm justification), and they will be taking out their contempt for this President upon Republicans who cannot adequately distance themselves from him.

International reality? The world can rely upon countries other than America for its overall stability. If America is suspect as a member of the Free World and can no longer be trusted as the world's policeman, then there are other candidates. The countries that were the three main Axis Powers in World War II are more democratic than we are. So was our main democratic ally Britain. Now there is India, a Great Power in its own right. Those countries can wait out President Trump because two hundred years of political heritage matter more than the caprice of one President. The next American President, if not a caretaker with zany ideas like Mike Pence who is also unelectable as President, will be more like Barack Obama even if a white liberal female -- or a conservative.       

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After presiding over the worst economic meltdown in American history and meeting it mostly ineffectually, Herbert Hoover still got 39.65% of the popular vote and got 59 electoral votes in a troubled big for re-election. After having failed to do anything to mitigate stagflation and having some incredible bad luck in the hostage crisis in Iran, Jimmy Carter got 41% of the popular vote and 49 electoral votes. The elder Bush got 37.45% of the popular vote and 168 electoral votes after having no coherent idea of what to do in a Second Act. To be sure, neither of those Presidents have been so corrupt and cruel as this one, I cannot imagine Trump doing worse in the popular vote than the elder Bush (although that would requite a Third Party nominee on the Right or center-Right who takes more votes from the incumbent than from the challenger as did  Ross Perot) and in the electoral college than Hoover or Carter. Millions still love the political rogue who is now President.

The polls, nationwide or statewide, show that this President is a disappointment to those who held their noses and voted for him. I expect to know more -- don't we all? -- after the November 2018 midterm elections.   

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It may be getting normal for Trump, but it still offends millions of Americans, including many who voted for him. People often get away with driving drunk or having a temporary blackout as they doze off. I wouldn't want to be a passenger in a car under the control of someone who 'only had a cuppl'a beerzh, osshiffer' or continues to drive into the late afternoon after not having had a good night's sleep. This President has offended too many sensibilities to get re-elected under normal circumstances.

[LimoLiberal]

Politico/Morning Consult

Approve - 43 (+1)
Disapprove - 52 (-2)

[LimoLiberal]

Rasmussen 4/11

Approve - 49 (+1)
Disapprove - 50 (-1)

[KingSweden]

Interesting that this (very slight) uptick is in tandem with Democrats expanding their GCB advantage

[LimoLiberal]

Yikes.

Yougov

Approve - 40 (+2)
Disapprove - 49 (-3)

Not hard to see what the trend is right now, however it could go back down just as quickly.

[LimoLiberal]

Trump's change in approval in one week in 5 recent polls.

Rasmussen: +4
Yougov: +5
Morning Consult: +3
Gallup: +3
Quinnipiac: +2

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Trump's change in approval in one week in 5 recent polls.

Rasmussen: +4
Yougov: +5
Morning Consult: +3
Gallup: +3
Quinnipiac: +2

Clear tariff bump. Dems need to reconsider their hatred of the Rust Belt immediately.

[Matty]

Trump approvals are still cruddy, but is it fair to say at this point that mueller developments aren't really affecting his polling? Neither the flynn or manafort indictments did much, and the cohen stuff looks to not be moving needle either.

[OneJ]

Trump's change in approval in one week in 5 recent polls.

Rasmussen: +4
Yougov: +5
Morning Consult: +3
Gallup: +3
Quinnipiac: +2

Clear tariff bump. Dems need to reconsider their hatred of the Rust Belt immediately.

Lol.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump approvals are still cruddy, but is it fair to say at this point that mueller developments aren't really affecting his polling? Neither the flynn or manafort indictments did much, and the cohen stuff looks to not be moving needle either.

This is probably true, and I suspect that developments in the investigation won't move the needle much unless Trump is either directly implicated in something, or starts taking action that would be perceived as subverting the investigation, such as firing Rosenstein or Mueller.  (Firing Comey was something that appears to have actually affected his approvals significantly.)

[Kyng]

Trump's change in approval in one week in 5 recent polls.

Rasmussen: +4
Yougov: +5
Morning Consult: +3
Gallup: +3
Quinnipiac: +2

Clear tariff bump. Dems need to reconsider their hatred of the Rust Belt immediately.

Margin-of-error movements in the polls aren't 'clear' anything.

(Okay, so the YouGov movement is more substantial - but, even then, the previous YouGov poll was on the lower end of what we were seeing from polls around then, so at least part of that movement is probably mean reversion)

[KingSweden]

Trump approvals are still cruddy, but is it fair to say at this point that mueller developments aren't really affecting his polling? Neither the flynn or manafort indictments did much, and the cohen stuff looks to not be moving needle either.

This is probably true, and I suspect that developments in the investigation won't move the needle much unless Trump is either directly implicated in something, or starts taking action that would be perceived as subverting the investigation, such as firing Rosenstein or Mueller.  (Firing Comey was something that appears to have actually affected his approvals significantly.)

^^^^